If these two hits, I think I am onto something.... I just added another variable into my stats portfolio and the system gave me those... Regarding my other plays, I have to add the same variable and see if those still stands. If mathematical calculation can predict the future in sport capping at a higher rate, then by golly, Math is powerful indeed.
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I think today's play is.....
houston -28
and
virginia +14
If these two hits, I think I am onto something.... I just added another variable into my stats portfolio and the system gave me those... Regarding my other plays, I have to add the same variable and see if those still stands. If mathematical calculation can predict the future in sport capping at a higher rate, then by golly, Math is powerful indeed.
I like VA, but -28 for Houston. I know they are ranked but thats a ton of points. And garbage points late could cost you that one. I stayed away from that game but BOL to you on it. I also added a 3 Team Teaser for tonight, tell me what you think: VA +21.5 Rice +35.5 VA/Miami Over 42.5
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I like VA, but -28 for Houston. I know they are ranked but thats a ton of points. And garbage points late could cost you that one. I stayed away from that game but BOL to you on it. I also added a 3 Team Teaser for tonight, tell me what you think: VA +21.5 Rice +35.5 VA/Miami Over 42.5
I like VA, but -28 for Houston. I know they are ranked but thats a ton of points. And garbage points late could cost you that one. I stayed away from that game but BOL to you on it. I also added a 3 Team Teaser for tonight, tell me what you think: VA +21.5 Rice +35.5 VA/Miami Over 42.5
your card is looking good so far.
however, houston looks like they just woke up and is running the score up.
your teaser +35 on rice still going ok at this moment. Now back to the game...
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Quote Originally Posted by kaboom03:
I like VA, but -28 for Houston. I know they are ranked but thats a ton of points. And garbage points late could cost you that one. I stayed away from that game but BOL to you on it. I also added a 3 Team Teaser for tonight, tell me what you think: VA +21.5 Rice +35.5 VA/Miami Over 42.5
your card is looking good so far.
however, houston looks like they just woke up and is running the score up.
your teaser +35 on rice still going ok at this moment. Now back to the game...
If these two hits, I think I am onto something.... I just added another variable into my stats portfolio and the system gave me those... Regarding my other plays, I have to add the same variable and see if those still stands. If mathematical calculation can predict the future in sport capping at a higher rate, then by golly, Math is powerful indeed.
it is interesting on how this new system is working for me here. Early start in the week, I already smelled money. I had the pitts + over game and won that game. Tonight, won both of these games as well. I have free money to shoot for this weekend and here goes my strongest leans for this week. Here goes nothing.
syracuse +3 bowling green -3.5 <,-- thanks to whomever that bought this pricing down.
Navy +21 <<-- loving this dog here. Nd should only give like 5 points max.
tulane +16.5 <--- e carolina is giving too much spread here. The spread here should be e carol -3 which gives me tremendous value.
iowa -15 <-- Mn gofer is just a horrible football team. The spread should be iowa +29 so tremendous value for taking this chalk here.
hawaii - 7.5 <-- not the best value but is a good chalk value. This spread here is a discount by a touch down and field goal.
co st. -2.5 <-- unlv is just horrible. The spread here should be co st. -17 and not -2.5. Once again, I only pick value plays.
Cal -4.5 < -- i cap this with cal giving 15.5 points. 4.5? I'll take that as giving me a discount.
south caro -3.5 <-- For some reason, I dislike tenn. That one team gave them 30 points spread and they could only pop up 3 points for the whole entire game. I see s. caro should give 13.5 points to make this game at least fair.
Stanford -7.5 <-- The spread should be stanford -28.5 is what I'm seeing. I do not question my system of play. I just void my emotion and go with the flow with value at laying -7.5 and backing up andrew Luck for the lucky win.
Wis -7 <,-- I am seeing good value here. Why the spread so small is what I'm curious but my system shows that the spread should give osu -26 points. Now isn't that weird?
new mexico st +15 <-- I'm impressed with nevada at how they were able to play san jose state but I'm not impress with their defense. New mexico state played hawaii and I saw something in new mexico state. I think new mexico state will keep it close in this one. Nevada should only give 5 points spread. I'll take that extra 10 plus at home for new mexico state.
wyoming +18 <<-- this is also another over valued play here. Wyoming should only be dog by 5 points. Why give so much daygo state? You scared? LOL
Tex tech -14.5 <,-- I'm digging this play here. At home in tex tech, what do you think will happen? It will be a big raping game to poor iowa st. I cap this with iowa st getting at least 25.5 points but where there is value, I'm taking value.
Good luck to me and lets see what's up to my capping skills. I'm shooting for 51% but the rate that I'm going, I'm doing at 52%. LOL
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Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
I think today's play is.....
houston -28 winner
and
virginia +14 winner
If these two hits, I think I am onto something.... I just added another variable into my stats portfolio and the system gave me those... Regarding my other plays, I have to add the same variable and see if those still stands. If mathematical calculation can predict the future in sport capping at a higher rate, then by golly, Math is powerful indeed.
it is interesting on how this new system is working for me here. Early start in the week, I already smelled money. I had the pitts + over game and won that game. Tonight, won both of these games as well. I have free money to shoot for this weekend and here goes my strongest leans for this week. Here goes nothing.
syracuse +3 bowling green -3.5 <,-- thanks to whomever that bought this pricing down.
Navy +21 <<-- loving this dog here. Nd should only give like 5 points max.
tulane +16.5 <--- e carolina is giving too much spread here. The spread here should be e carol -3 which gives me tremendous value.
iowa -15 <-- Mn gofer is just a horrible football team. The spread should be iowa +29 so tremendous value for taking this chalk here.
hawaii - 7.5 <-- not the best value but is a good chalk value. This spread here is a discount by a touch down and field goal.
co st. -2.5 <-- unlv is just horrible. The spread here should be co st. -17 and not -2.5. Once again, I only pick value plays.
Cal -4.5 < -- i cap this with cal giving 15.5 points. 4.5? I'll take that as giving me a discount.
south caro -3.5 <-- For some reason, I dislike tenn. That one team gave them 30 points spread and they could only pop up 3 points for the whole entire game. I see s. caro should give 13.5 points to make this game at least fair.
Stanford -7.5 <-- The spread should be stanford -28.5 is what I'm seeing. I do not question my system of play. I just void my emotion and go with the flow with value at laying -7.5 and backing up andrew Luck for the lucky win.
Wis -7 <,-- I am seeing good value here. Why the spread so small is what I'm curious but my system shows that the spread should give osu -26 points. Now isn't that weird?
new mexico st +15 <-- I'm impressed with nevada at how they were able to play san jose state but I'm not impress with their defense. New mexico state played hawaii and I saw something in new mexico state. I think new mexico state will keep it close in this one. Nevada should only give 5 points spread. I'll take that extra 10 plus at home for new mexico state.
wyoming +18 <<-- this is also another over valued play here. Wyoming should only be dog by 5 points. Why give so much daygo state? You scared? LOL
Tex tech -14.5 <,-- I'm digging this play here. At home in tex tech, what do you think will happen? It will be a big raping game to poor iowa st. I cap this with iowa st getting at least 25.5 points but where there is value, I'm taking value.
Good luck to me and lets see what's up to my capping skills. I'm shooting for 51% but the rate that I'm going, I'm doing at 52%. LOL
As long as you fade me to make money, I will be here as a free service. LOL
ncaaf is brutal for me. It is either I fade my ncaaf current system to win or come up with another way to pick winners which then becomes loser anyway. LOL
I think I'm onto something here. All of my losing ncaaf teams have something in common and I will continue to cap the same way to pick winners but I'll flip it for the win. Next week, I'll cap dogs upset but eventually, the fav will win. I'll post these chalk's fav by next week on Thursday or so.
The way I cap the NFL is different and so far, it is holding. I just hope I'm onto something here.
Tenn -9 Win hou -10 Push NO -13 <<-- upset lose det -4 win sf -10 Pending but looking good cin -3 Pending but looking good dal +4 Pending san daygo -4 Pending
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Quote Originally Posted by 1129ken:
Please stay in the game. Thank you.
As long as you fade me to make money, I will be here as a free service. LOL
ncaaf is brutal for me. It is either I fade my ncaaf current system to win or come up with another way to pick winners which then becomes loser anyway. LOL
I think I'm onto something here. All of my losing ncaaf teams have something in common and I will continue to cap the same way to pick winners but I'll flip it for the win. Next week, I'll cap dogs upset but eventually, the fav will win. I'll post these chalk's fav by next week on Thursday or so.
The way I cap the NFL is different and so far, it is holding. I just hope I'm onto something here.
Tenn -9 Win hou -10 Push NO -13 <<-- upset lose det -4 win sf -10 Pending but looking good cin -3 Pending but looking good dal +4 Pending san daygo -4 Pending
Time for you to fade me to win. My pickings for the nfl is just as horrible as ncaa but try fading these for the win.
I'm not fading myself on these though. I am going to play it as is because I love losing. LOL
I stopped capping the same style of the past and now I have a different system that I'm testing here. To cap winners, I have to try everything from fading the public, rlm, square pickings, capping to lose on purpose so I can win and also, fading some of these poor covers' cappers and also, I have to pick upsets for a surprise surprise moment. LOL
here we go.
NFL: ATL -7 <<-- No one should bet on Indy at this moment. The spread here is just too small for atl. It should be -14 the least.
TB +9 <<-- surprise surprise The public will continue to ride with NO from that upset
Cleve +11 <-- the defense of cleve is just clutch and so they will hang around to eat the spread. Fade the public. LOL Miami <-- no spread yet but take them for all they're worth. KC just won their superbowl and will be playing on a short week plus miami is hungry for their first win but I'm taking the spread for insurance.
SF -3.5 <-- gotta ride the hot team at the moment. The sf defense is pretty good and cheap spread here, I'm surprised.
Sea +12 <-- Dallas just got exposed and so Seattle will try to keep it close to eat the spread. Could they win straight up against an alright team like Dallas? sure they can.
AZ <,-- whatever the spread is, take az. Rams just won their superbowl and will be a let down for the public who will be riding on a team that beat them Saints.
Giants +9 <-- The public will be pounding ne at home due to them losing last week and although I think ne will win it but they will not cover the spread. I'm predicting a really close game here plus, giants are coming out hungry from a bye?
GB <<-- whatever the spread is, take GB. Daygo is better at home but gotta ride out a hot team for the moment. I know it is a square play but oh well, gotta add a square play and some foolish plays to my cards if I wanna be a winner.
MNF: Chicago +7 <-- This game here, the public will be riding on philly's donkey's dick for seeing how well they played against dallas. This will be a let down game for the public if they dare to take philly. I can care less if philly wins game but +7 is just too much of a spread for Chicago. Plus chicago is healthy from a bye.
Come on now, you have to give me some credit for not picking them public or square picks. At least I tried ya know?
Next horrible capping skills will be the ncaaf. I will have a small card on that one. I'll cap my regular style first then I will flip it and fade it for the win. I will post only what I am going to play for the win. oh weeeeeee, I love finding a winning system. Trail and error is one way you can learn.
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Time for you to fade me to win. My pickings for the nfl is just as horrible as ncaa but try fading these for the win.
I'm not fading myself on these though. I am going to play it as is because I love losing. LOL
I stopped capping the same style of the past and now I have a different system that I'm testing here. To cap winners, I have to try everything from fading the public, rlm, square pickings, capping to lose on purpose so I can win and also, fading some of these poor covers' cappers and also, I have to pick upsets for a surprise surprise moment. LOL
here we go.
NFL: ATL -7 <<-- No one should bet on Indy at this moment. The spread here is just too small for atl. It should be -14 the least.
TB +9 <<-- surprise surprise The public will continue to ride with NO from that upset
Cleve +11 <-- the defense of cleve is just clutch and so they will hang around to eat the spread. Fade the public. LOL Miami <-- no spread yet but take them for all they're worth. KC just won their superbowl and will be playing on a short week plus miami is hungry for their first win but I'm taking the spread for insurance.
SF -3.5 <-- gotta ride the hot team at the moment. The sf defense is pretty good and cheap spread here, I'm surprised.
Sea +12 <-- Dallas just got exposed and so Seattle will try to keep it close to eat the spread. Could they win straight up against an alright team like Dallas? sure they can.
AZ <,-- whatever the spread is, take az. Rams just won their superbowl and will be a let down for the public who will be riding on a team that beat them Saints.
Giants +9 <-- The public will be pounding ne at home due to them losing last week and although I think ne will win it but they will not cover the spread. I'm predicting a really close game here plus, giants are coming out hungry from a bye?
GB <<-- whatever the spread is, take GB. Daygo is better at home but gotta ride out a hot team for the moment. I know it is a square play but oh well, gotta add a square play and some foolish plays to my cards if I wanna be a winner.
MNF: Chicago +7 <-- This game here, the public will be riding on philly's donkey's dick for seeing how well they played against dallas. This will be a let down game for the public if they dare to take philly. I can care less if philly wins game but +7 is just too much of a spread for Chicago. Plus chicago is healthy from a bye.
Come on now, you have to give me some credit for not picking them public or square picks. At least I tried ya know?
Next horrible capping skills will be the ncaaf. I will have a small card on that one. I'll cap my regular style first then I will flip it and fade it for the win. I will post only what I am going to play for the win. oh weeeeeee, I love finding a winning system. Trail and error is one way you can learn.
what the hell happened in Toledo? It is just mind blogging to see that I'm cursed from picking the winners.
Whatever, the show must go on???????.
I'm still riding on this and will have a few more plays later called fading my own system.
thurs Mia Oh -14
Still at it I see. Good for you, or not if you are still betting with real money. Maybe you should be picking without actual money on the line until you see some progress as I'm sure you must be getting killed the way you're picking. Seriously, I feel badly for you. I mean, it's the "you're so bad it's almost comical" kind of sorry. It's like watching the guy trip over his own feet kind of thing. You can almost feel the pain when he does the face-plant, but you almost can't help busting up at the same time either.......
I almost wish you had seen the truth really-not-so-hidden in my humerous posts last week and bet only against yourself as you wouldn't have lost any money. Even my suggestion of picking blindly you would have to hit a theoretical rate of 50% over the long run. I think I looked over your college picks on Sun AM and saw what I recall now something like 4-9? The sad part is that's actually an improvement from your previous results............ Dude, you can't see the writing on the wall? How about your own writing which I simply high-lighted for you above? Read it again and again and then look at your conclusion. Does it make sense? Is your conclusion the logical follow up of your statements??????? You might think I was making fun of you in those posts before but really I was trying to help you out.
Most of the time, I don't even bother trying to pick college games. It's just to damn easy to watch the first half, and see what the heck is going on, and bet the 2nd half. It's also just too easy to pass if you didn't learn anything watching the first half. I didn't bother trying to pick the Toledo game, thought it was too hard to call but I was really sure the overs was a no-brainer-easy pick. Took overs for the game (lol over 120 total points scored for the game!), overs for the 1st half (-34.4 and 35 points in the 1st Q!), overs for the 2nd Half (-35.5 ....too easy again!). Also, from how I saw N.Ill playing with no problems against Toledo's weak defense, I just couldn't see how I could refuse N.Ill +7.5 +100 for the 2nd 1/2. Did have to sweat that out a bit with the see-saw 4th Q but ended up the right side. MAC conference games are hard to call. The one thing going for your MIA OH game is that it's the Thursday Home Team which is something I like a lot and works out pretty well for me. Not always but a lot. Still, with two crappy defenses on the field again in this match up, I think the overs is probably the best play for the game. Should be another high scoring affair, we'll see. No doubt to me my main bet will be for the 2nd 1/2 again based on what I learn from the 1st 1/2.
Good luck to you, hope you consider my advice on toning down your actual betting with real money. Keep posting your picks for your own record, but back off from Save your dough Bro until you get better figuring this stuff out.....
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Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
I just don't get it.
When I play to tail, I lose
when I play to fade my own self, I still lose.
what the hell happened in Toledo? It is just mind blogging to see that I'm cursed from picking the winners.
Whatever, the show must go on???????.
I'm still riding on this and will have a few more plays later called fading my own system.
thurs Mia Oh -14
Still at it I see. Good for you, or not if you are still betting with real money. Maybe you should be picking without actual money on the line until you see some progress as I'm sure you must be getting killed the way you're picking. Seriously, I feel badly for you. I mean, it's the "you're so bad it's almost comical" kind of sorry. It's like watching the guy trip over his own feet kind of thing. You can almost feel the pain when he does the face-plant, but you almost can't help busting up at the same time either.......
I almost wish you had seen the truth really-not-so-hidden in my humerous posts last week and bet only against yourself as you wouldn't have lost any money. Even my suggestion of picking blindly you would have to hit a theoretical rate of 50% over the long run. I think I looked over your college picks on Sun AM and saw what I recall now something like 4-9? The sad part is that's actually an improvement from your previous results............ Dude, you can't see the writing on the wall? How about your own writing which I simply high-lighted for you above? Read it again and again and then look at your conclusion. Does it make sense? Is your conclusion the logical follow up of your statements??????? You might think I was making fun of you in those posts before but really I was trying to help you out.
Most of the time, I don't even bother trying to pick college games. It's just to damn easy to watch the first half, and see what the heck is going on, and bet the 2nd half. It's also just too easy to pass if you didn't learn anything watching the first half. I didn't bother trying to pick the Toledo game, thought it was too hard to call but I was really sure the overs was a no-brainer-easy pick. Took overs for the game (lol over 120 total points scored for the game!), overs for the 1st half (-34.4 and 35 points in the 1st Q!), overs for the 2nd Half (-35.5 ....too easy again!). Also, from how I saw N.Ill playing with no problems against Toledo's weak defense, I just couldn't see how I could refuse N.Ill +7.5 +100 for the 2nd 1/2. Did have to sweat that out a bit with the see-saw 4th Q but ended up the right side. MAC conference games are hard to call. The one thing going for your MIA OH game is that it's the Thursday Home Team which is something I like a lot and works out pretty well for me. Not always but a lot. Still, with two crappy defenses on the field again in this match up, I think the overs is probably the best play for the game. Should be another high scoring affair, we'll see. No doubt to me my main bet will be for the 2nd 1/2 again based on what I learn from the 1st 1/2.
Good luck to you, hope you consider my advice on toning down your actual betting with real money. Keep posting your picks for your own record, but back off from Save your dough Bro until you get better figuring this stuff out.....
You know how I do it. If it does not turn out right then I'll say fawk the system.
The system shows N. illinois to cover but you know how I do it. Fade the system for money.
tues Take Toledo -8
thurs Mia Oh -14Who the hell is Mia Oh to be favored by 14???? They're a crap team. So is Akron for that matter. 2 crap teams = take the points or pass.
Note: 2 defenses giving up around 400 ypg each and 59 ppg combined.
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Quote Originally Posted by nfl_brosuf:
You know how I do it. If it does not turn out right then I'll say fawk the system.
The system shows N. illinois to cover but you know how I do it. Fade the system for money.
tues Take Toledo -8
thurs Mia Oh -14Who the hell is Mia Oh to be favored by 14???? They're a crap team. So is Akron for that matter. 2 crap teams = take the points or pass.
Note: 2 defenses giving up around 400 ypg each and 59 ppg combined.
I do bet with real money but since I'm starting and trying to pick a different method of capping for every week and seeing many games, I put a few of them together in a sucker bet called parlay. 4 to 5 teamers but no more than that. It is hard enough to pick 1 for myself, why even play that lottery?
I keep track of the teams that I lost and there is a common denominator out of it. I uses the same method of capping and then I fade it. My record from last week, I saw this. 1 win and 8 loses. I'm like hell yeah, I'm onto something good here. Repeat the process and instead of tailing that 8 loses, I'll flip it.
So far, the system yields 2-8 with toledo game being a loser.
I'll let the same style of capping to run through this weekend and see how such system is holding up for me. Them 8 that I loss from last week were my sure dogs winner but it ended up being losers. So now I cap for only dogs but instead, take the chalk. This is my list for this week and I will be spreading these teams out in groups of 3 to 4 with any combinations to win such lottery.
w virgina/louville -13.5 e mich/ball st -2.4 uconn/scruze -2 ark/s caro -5 hawaii/utah -3.5 bama/lsu -5 mich st/mn -28 wis/purdue -25.5 miss/kentuck -1.5 s fl/rutg -2.5
I know that there are other and better methods to cap games but that is the next level for me. I have to shake this off my shoulder until I move to that next level. I'm a newbie and right now, am trying to use any scientific method to cap games for results which is a proven laughing matter at this point.
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Thanks for the lecture tomE, I really needed it.
I do bet with real money but since I'm starting and trying to pick a different method of capping for every week and seeing many games, I put a few of them together in a sucker bet called parlay. 4 to 5 teamers but no more than that. It is hard enough to pick 1 for myself, why even play that lottery?
I keep track of the teams that I lost and there is a common denominator out of it. I uses the same method of capping and then I fade it. My record from last week, I saw this. 1 win and 8 loses. I'm like hell yeah, I'm onto something good here. Repeat the process and instead of tailing that 8 loses, I'll flip it.
So far, the system yields 2-8 with toledo game being a loser.
I'll let the same style of capping to run through this weekend and see how such system is holding up for me. Them 8 that I loss from last week were my sure dogs winner but it ended up being losers. So now I cap for only dogs but instead, take the chalk. This is my list for this week and I will be spreading these teams out in groups of 3 to 4 with any combinations to win such lottery.
w virgina/louville -13.5 e mich/ball st -2.4 uconn/scruze -2 ark/s caro -5 hawaii/utah -3.5 bama/lsu -5 mich st/mn -28 wis/purdue -25.5 miss/kentuck -1.5 s fl/rutg -2.5
I know that there are other and better methods to cap games but that is the next level for me. I have to shake this off my shoulder until I move to that next level. I'm a newbie and right now, am trying to use any scientific method to cap games for results which is a proven laughing matter at this point.
Now here are some dogs that I'm tailing. My system picks the other team, the chalk team and you know how my system is. It is as croonie as grandma's bra from last saturday. So that means to fade whatever my system picks.
az st.... Pick UCLA +10 s miss... Pick E. Carolina +8.5 stanford.. Pick Oregon St. +21 hou........ Pick UAB +28 cinn....... Pick Pitts +2.5 utep.......Pick Rice +1 ark st......Pick Fl atl +17
If last week is 1-8, this week, I'm going for 8-1. har har har har
Fade the fade machine for money....I hope!!!
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Above are chalks to tail..
Now here are some dogs that I'm tailing. My system picks the other team, the chalk team and you know how my system is. It is as croonie as grandma's bra from last saturday. So that means to fade whatever my system picks.
az st.... Pick UCLA +10 s miss... Pick E. Carolina +8.5 stanford.. Pick Oregon St. +21 hou........ Pick UAB +28 cinn....... Pick Pitts +2.5 utep.......Pick Rice +1 ark st......Pick Fl atl +17
If last week is 1-8, this week, I'm going for 8-1. har har har har
Bro, I understand you're a newbie...been there, done that. I can tell you that the learning curve in this football betting game is steep and expensive if you go about it wrong. Let me just say right off that when I read your thread for the first time the other week, I came away with a couple of impressions. When I saw your thread title of aiming for 51.999% I thought maybe that was a joke, and expected to find some humour in there somewhere. I did, but it was not what I anticipated. The humour I saw was a bumbling, 3 stooges kind of funny and the laughter was at your expense which also made me feel bad too. Sorry about that...
The main impression is that you are really bad at this and you are investing real money on horrible methodology. That, to be serious, is really not funny at all. ALSO, I was struck that you are actually a good person, not a dick like some of the people here on Covers. I can see that so clearly in how your write and what you say. I'm very perceptive about people, and I trust my view that you are a good person with a good heart in an unfortunate situation and current endeavor of choice. For that reason, I would like to help you out. I can't sit here all day though and write pages and pages of advice for you. I'll start out with a few suggestions. #1 Know what the F you are working with and doing. I appreciate your goal of being a winning handicapping. I believe anyone can do anything they put their mind to. That being said, look at all your picks. Specifically, how many picks you have...How can you possibly know all that you need to know about all those teams you are betting on? College is really hard because there's just too many damn teams to keep track of. I'm very intelligent, have been doing this for years, and even I can't keep track of all that matters when betting on college teams. You have to KNOW about the teams you are betting on or against. You have to understand and know these teams like they are your brother or something. NFL is easier because there's fewer teams and it's easier to get a grip on what's what with each team. So my first advice is to study the teams, study trends, study factors, WATCH THE GAMES (if at all possible), and at least read all that's out there available - which in this age of the computer and internet is plentiful. #2 Less is more! LESS IS MORE!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do you feel the need to have 10 or more picks? One good pick is worth way more than 10 crappy ones. Think about that. Every additional pick increases your variance and just makes it harder to win. Some might think there's "safety in numbers" reasoning that the odds are that if you have 10 picks, the odds indicate you should at least have 5 winners for your 5 losers. NOT! If you don't know what you are doing, the odds are against you on each and every pick. That, my friend, is EXACTLY what you are experiencing. It's not bad luck. It's exactly what you should expect as a newbie! Spend a ton of time researching a few selections and making quality picks instead of hoping your losers will balance out with winners with a bunch of plays. #3 Don't tail, don't fade. That's just stupid. You are not using your own mind and you are "hoping" that someone who your think is good will continue to be good and someone you think is terrible will continue to be terrible. Don't rely on anyone else but your own hard work and study to make your picks. That's how you are truly going to learn and get better. #4. When you have a loser, don't look at everything and anyone to blame for the loss. Don't just sweep the loser under the carpet and be done with it. Just say to yourself you made a bad pick (that's what I do) and dissect it and go over it again and again looking for trends and factors you ignored which could have avoided the loss. Study your loss until it makes you sick and until you are absolutely sure you completely understand why the pick was bad. It's painful, but that's what makes you improve in quantum leaps. I've been a chess player since age 7 and I can tell you that really scrutinizing your losses under a microscope is how you up your game really fast and effectively. I'm saying this because the average person wants to forget the bad experiences as quickly as possible which only denies them the opportunity to really, really learn! Also, the average person does not want to accept the blame for their bad judgement in the game. A recent example for me: Balt @ Jack. I was sooo sure Balt was the better team. I made a horrible pick. Had I properly evaluated Jack's defense and desperate situation that MN, I could have easily avoided it. Other people saw it, I had my blinders on apparently. It happens. I was very hard on myself and admitted it was a shit pick. I didn't sit there blaming Balt's offense or Joe Flucko or Ray Rice or any officiating. It was my bad! End of story. Learn and then move on! #5. Practice, practice, practice. HEY, YOU'RE A NEWBIE by your own admission. That's not a crime, but you have to pay your dues. You are not going to magically devise a system from out of nowhere and instantly turn you into a winner. Systems and Trends are great but you also have to use great discretion on applying them. Do your picks on paper for awhile. You don't have to take the bankroll suicide approach and try winning before you are ready!
Bro (Bro-suf), if you would rather I not try to help you out, say so and no problem. If you appreciate useful insight, I will come back and help you some more. I'll even give you some kick ass stuff I've figured out to win second half bets in college. I mean, why try to figure out on paper who is the better team and who is going to "show up" to play when you can watch the first half and KNOW without guessing? Man, it's like stealing for me right now with 2nd Half college FB bets!
Anyway, I've given you a lot to chew over. My goal is to stop your bleeding immediately. You are injured and don't know it. You are bleeding out Bro. You need to stop the bleeding first and then proceed from there.
Best of luck. I think you can be successful but not the way you are going about it. Think it over......
0
Bro, I understand you're a newbie...been there, done that. I can tell you that the learning curve in this football betting game is steep and expensive if you go about it wrong. Let me just say right off that when I read your thread for the first time the other week, I came away with a couple of impressions. When I saw your thread title of aiming for 51.999% I thought maybe that was a joke, and expected to find some humour in there somewhere. I did, but it was not what I anticipated. The humour I saw was a bumbling, 3 stooges kind of funny and the laughter was at your expense which also made me feel bad too. Sorry about that...
The main impression is that you are really bad at this and you are investing real money on horrible methodology. That, to be serious, is really not funny at all. ALSO, I was struck that you are actually a good person, not a dick like some of the people here on Covers. I can see that so clearly in how your write and what you say. I'm very perceptive about people, and I trust my view that you are a good person with a good heart in an unfortunate situation and current endeavor of choice. For that reason, I would like to help you out. I can't sit here all day though and write pages and pages of advice for you. I'll start out with a few suggestions. #1 Know what the F you are working with and doing. I appreciate your goal of being a winning handicapping. I believe anyone can do anything they put their mind to. That being said, look at all your picks. Specifically, how many picks you have...How can you possibly know all that you need to know about all those teams you are betting on? College is really hard because there's just too many damn teams to keep track of. I'm very intelligent, have been doing this for years, and even I can't keep track of all that matters when betting on college teams. You have to KNOW about the teams you are betting on or against. You have to understand and know these teams like they are your brother or something. NFL is easier because there's fewer teams and it's easier to get a grip on what's what with each team. So my first advice is to study the teams, study trends, study factors, WATCH THE GAMES (if at all possible), and at least read all that's out there available - which in this age of the computer and internet is plentiful. #2 Less is more! LESS IS MORE!!!!!!!!!!!! Why do you feel the need to have 10 or more picks? One good pick is worth way more than 10 crappy ones. Think about that. Every additional pick increases your variance and just makes it harder to win. Some might think there's "safety in numbers" reasoning that the odds are that if you have 10 picks, the odds indicate you should at least have 5 winners for your 5 losers. NOT! If you don't know what you are doing, the odds are against you on each and every pick. That, my friend, is EXACTLY what you are experiencing. It's not bad luck. It's exactly what you should expect as a newbie! Spend a ton of time researching a few selections and making quality picks instead of hoping your losers will balance out with winners with a bunch of plays. #3 Don't tail, don't fade. That's just stupid. You are not using your own mind and you are "hoping" that someone who your think is good will continue to be good and someone you think is terrible will continue to be terrible. Don't rely on anyone else but your own hard work and study to make your picks. That's how you are truly going to learn and get better. #4. When you have a loser, don't look at everything and anyone to blame for the loss. Don't just sweep the loser under the carpet and be done with it. Just say to yourself you made a bad pick (that's what I do) and dissect it and go over it again and again looking for trends and factors you ignored which could have avoided the loss. Study your loss until it makes you sick and until you are absolutely sure you completely understand why the pick was bad. It's painful, but that's what makes you improve in quantum leaps. I've been a chess player since age 7 and I can tell you that really scrutinizing your losses under a microscope is how you up your game really fast and effectively. I'm saying this because the average person wants to forget the bad experiences as quickly as possible which only denies them the opportunity to really, really learn! Also, the average person does not want to accept the blame for their bad judgement in the game. A recent example for me: Balt @ Jack. I was sooo sure Balt was the better team. I made a horrible pick. Had I properly evaluated Jack's defense and desperate situation that MN, I could have easily avoided it. Other people saw it, I had my blinders on apparently. It happens. I was very hard on myself and admitted it was a shit pick. I didn't sit there blaming Balt's offense or Joe Flucko or Ray Rice or any officiating. It was my bad! End of story. Learn and then move on! #5. Practice, practice, practice. HEY, YOU'RE A NEWBIE by your own admission. That's not a crime, but you have to pay your dues. You are not going to magically devise a system from out of nowhere and instantly turn you into a winner. Systems and Trends are great but you also have to use great discretion on applying them. Do your picks on paper for awhile. You don't have to take the bankroll suicide approach and try winning before you are ready!
Bro (Bro-suf), if you would rather I not try to help you out, say so and no problem. If you appreciate useful insight, I will come back and help you some more. I'll even give you some kick ass stuff I've figured out to win second half bets in college. I mean, why try to figure out on paper who is the better team and who is going to "show up" to play when you can watch the first half and KNOW without guessing? Man, it's like stealing for me right now with 2nd Half college FB bets!
Anyway, I've given you a lot to chew over. My goal is to stop your bleeding immediately. You are injured and don't know it. You are bleeding out Bro. You need to stop the bleeding first and then proceed from there.
Best of luck. I think you can be successful but not the way you are going about it. Think it over......
I played NBA last year and with juice, I barely broke even.
The NFL for me has loser written all over it. Now I see myself as a team and all losing teams do have something in common. It is their unwillingness to change their scheme of plays. I started out with a capping system, it did not work for me. I tweaked the system for the following week, it too did not work out for me, I think this is my third week with a different system and so far, it looks promising.
I mean just look at the dog plays that I posted. Another veteran capper by the name of parte and I assume you know who this person is/are using a veteran style of capping and my pickings are similar to his in some aspect.
If I remembered it correctly, this is what he picked in accordance to my own. If me and parte is on the same page then my 3.0 version system is holding up some water as of right now. Who knows by game time but for now, It is holding strong on it.
az st.... Pick UCLA +10 stanford.. Pick Oregon St. +21 hou........ Pick UAB +28 ark st......Pick Fl atl +17
My first posting to this thread, I already established myself with a disclaimer that if my pickings are failure, it is time to fade it but if it turns out fruitful, tail some.
Now most cappers are 50% cappers, that is they are nor hot or cold. If I fall in this half and half category, no matter if I tail or fade my own self, the results will still be hot nor cold. So far, this is a good opportunity for me to fade my own self capping skills for it is a known losing system. I'm more interested in testing for results. While I'm at it, I like to put a lil bit of chump change on the line just in case I do hit something good. I could play and making air bets for 2011 just to test out my system and shoot for 2012 season but that's too long of a wait. The reason why I'm putting money to test my system is the belief factor. I believe that what I am doing is reasonably sound. Most folks on covers are good cappers and if I were looking for failure, I'll fade these good cappers. Now it is all about winning so in order for me to win, I need to find some horrible cappers on here and fade them for money. Since there are hardly any, I'll just fade myself, a well known established horrible capper and it is no shame for being a horrible capper either. It is either you're hot or cold to produce and predict a result. Anything in between is a coin flip.
Anytime tome, my thread is open for all to share. My way is an unorthodox way but hey, I'm no genius but I would like to be one. I'm trying to think outside the box here.
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0
Tome, thanks for such insights.
I played NBA last year and with juice, I barely broke even.
The NFL for me has loser written all over it. Now I see myself as a team and all losing teams do have something in common. It is their unwillingness to change their scheme of plays. I started out with a capping system, it did not work for me. I tweaked the system for the following week, it too did not work out for me, I think this is my third week with a different system and so far, it looks promising.
I mean just look at the dog plays that I posted. Another veteran capper by the name of parte and I assume you know who this person is/are using a veteran style of capping and my pickings are similar to his in some aspect.
If I remembered it correctly, this is what he picked in accordance to my own. If me and parte is on the same page then my 3.0 version system is holding up some water as of right now. Who knows by game time but for now, It is holding strong on it.
az st.... Pick UCLA +10 stanford.. Pick Oregon St. +21 hou........ Pick UAB +28 ark st......Pick Fl atl +17
My first posting to this thread, I already established myself with a disclaimer that if my pickings are failure, it is time to fade it but if it turns out fruitful, tail some.
Now most cappers are 50% cappers, that is they are nor hot or cold. If I fall in this half and half category, no matter if I tail or fade my own self, the results will still be hot nor cold. So far, this is a good opportunity for me to fade my own self capping skills for it is a known losing system. I'm more interested in testing for results. While I'm at it, I like to put a lil bit of chump change on the line just in case I do hit something good. I could play and making air bets for 2011 just to test out my system and shoot for 2012 season but that's too long of a wait. The reason why I'm putting money to test my system is the belief factor. I believe that what I am doing is reasonably sound. Most folks on covers are good cappers and if I were looking for failure, I'll fade these good cappers. Now it is all about winning so in order for me to win, I need to find some horrible cappers on here and fade them for money. Since there are hardly any, I'll just fade myself, a well known established horrible capper and it is no shame for being a horrible capper either. It is either you're hot or cold to produce and predict a result. Anything in between is a coin flip.
Anytime tome, my thread is open for all to share. My way is an unorthodox way but hey, I'm no genius but I would like to be one. I'm trying to think outside the box here.
Oh st offensive can score on the average of 24.5 points per game. Does it make sense for Oh st to up their standards and give more points than what they can muster up?
Indiana has the same types of offensive as oh st in the mediocre arena shelling out 23.5 points per game.
the spread here is just too high. It only takes Indiana to score 2 touchdowns and on their bad day to force oh st. to score 14+28= 42 points for this game.
Indiana +28 is my best dog play for this week. Woot woot!!!!
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0
Adding
Indiana over Oh st.
Oh st offensive can score on the average of 24.5 points per game. Does it make sense for Oh st to up their standards and give more points than what they can muster up?
Indiana has the same types of offensive as oh st in the mediocre arena shelling out 23.5 points per game.
the spread here is just too high. It only takes Indiana to score 2 touchdowns and on their bad day to force oh st. to score 14+28= 42 points for this game.
Indiana +28 is my best dog play for this week. Woot woot!!!!
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