51.9999999% nfl capping winners by NFL_brosuf LOL

Dec 04 04:05 PM Dec 04 01:00 PM Dec 04 04:15 PM Dec 04 04:15 PM

NFL NFL NFL NFL NFL

PARLAY (5 TEAMS) [350] CHICAGO -8-110 [355] BALTIMORE -6½-110 [357] NY JETS -3-110 [368] SAN FRANCISCO -13½-110 [369] DALLAS -4½-110

50/ 1100

ncaaf and oh boy, I must be stupid.

whatever, I just take this weeks lean and drop it in a 10 teamer parlay for fun.  It is only $5 holla to get $3000 aka 2011 pinto fiesta car.   LOL

Dec 03 12:00 PM Dec 03 12:30 PM Dec 03 02:00 PM Dec 03 08:00 PM Dec 03 03:30 PM Dec 03 04:30 PM Dec 03 04:00 PM Dec 03 12:00 PM Dec 03 08:15 PM

CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB

PARLAY (10 TEAMS) [308] OREGON -31½-110 [312] PITTSBURGH U -10½-110 [314] KANSAS STATE -10½-110 [315] WYOMING -5½-110 [320] OKLAHOMA STATE -3½-110 [322] BAYLOR -2½-110 [334] ARKANSAS STATE -17½-110 [336] NORTH TEXAS -5-110 [340] HOUSTON U -13-110 [346] WISCONSIN -9½-110

5 / 3000

Dec 03 02:00 PM Dec 03 02:30 PM Dec 03 03:30 PM Dec 03 06:00 PM Dec 03 07:30 PM Dec 03 04:00 PM

CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB CFB

PARLAY (7 TEAMS) [305] NO ILLINOIS -4-110 [315] WYOMING -5½-110 [317] UNLV +39-110 [322] BAYLOR -2½-110 [325] NEW MEXICO +48½-110 [327] BYU -7½-110 [337] UL MONROE -7½-110

50 / 4000

last one for this week and it is a combination. 

Dec 04 01:00 PM Dec 04 04:15 PM Dec 04 04:15 PM Dec 03 08:00 PM Dec 03 03:30 PM Dec 03 12:00 PM Dec 03 08:15 PM

NFL NFL NFL NFL CFB CFB CFB CFB

PARLAY (8 TEAMS) [355] BALTIMORE -6½-110 [359] ATLANTA -2½-110 [368] SAN FRANCISCO -13½-110 [369] DALLAS -4½-110 [320] OKLAHOMA STATE -3½-110 [322] BAYLOR -2½-110 [340] HOUSTON U -13-110 [346] WISCONSIN -9½-110

50 / 7500

Here is a degenerate lottery play for ncaab  ML.  yeah I know, I need help or get a gf and play her instead.  LOL

Nov 29 07:00 PM Nov 29 07:00 PM Nov 29 07:15 PM Nov 29 07:30 PM Nov 29 09:00 PM Nov 29 09:30 PM Nov 29 10:00 PM Nov 29 07:00 PM Nov 29 08:00 PM

CBB CBB CBB CBB CBB CBB CBB CBB CBB CBB

PARLAY (10 TEAMS) [542] CINCINNATI -650 [546] VIRGINIA -165 [548] OLD DOMINION -275 [550] GEORGIA TECH -160 [551] ILLINOIS -190 [560] PURDUE -475 [564] OHIO STATE -375 [565] SAINT LOUIS -475 [570] PENNSYLVANIA -500 [572] ARKANSAS STATE -175

50 / 1046.90

LOL to saint louis and georgia tech who ruined my parlay. 

It was fun.  maybe I would like to try it again. 

I hit NFL games over 60 percent...

And why do u comment on your own posts so much? hmm.

TG

good job on your 60%. 

My goal is 51% for this year and so far, looks like I failed. 

I like to quote comment on my own posting because I am bi polar but charlie disagrees and says that I'm bi winning. 

This thread is my journey and struggles through capping football, both ncaaf and the nfl.  By next year, I should do ok.  I mean I am doing ok now but when you are starting to get your nitch going, the season is almost over.  Go figures...

I have a funky parlay that includes nfl, ncaaf, ncaab, soc that is pending my last leg on west virginia this coming thursday.  I think I am going to hedge my bet or I will cry myself if west virginia lose outright.  I made a thread here to get any helpful advice.

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=33&sub=101197868

Best of luck with West Virginia.  

thanks buddy. 

I think I am going to let it ride with w virginia.  I know that them mountaineers screwed me up in their other games but I am going to give them one more shot to end this season right for them. 

I would hedge if s. florida had a better record though.  They are on a losing streak but they get their qb back. 

w virginia is still a 1 dimensional game.  All pass and struggles on the run.  S. florida only chances is to stop the passing game and force wv to run to their doom. 

Best of luck to me and best of skills to the rest.  I need this one  man.  

GL on the mountaneers bro. 

thanks buddy.

best of skills to you too.  Would be good if we make that extra cash to spend for the holiday season. 

Yes yes yes and more yes...

west virginia wins

that means I have free money to play the bowl games and the extra $1000 goes into the xmas gift budget...

what a night and what a game with changing momentum it was....woosh!!!!

I bet you thought it was all over when that pick came at 20-20? I was on WVU and sure as hell did, then I thought about your parlay. When it was all tied up again I forgot about my own pissy wager and was just hoping WVU rolled so you could cash.

Well done man, congrats.

thanks my man..I really needed this one to up my bankroll and continue to play the game that I love.

Thanks for rooting for me and us. 

The only way you will get me to play w virginia again is if the spread is small and against a .500 or below caliber team.  I have said before that w virginia is a hot and cold team.  They will screw you up like the hawaii team. 

You will not see me bet on w. virginia again if they are in the bowl game.  I think I am through with w. virginia for this year by basing it on their play performances. 

Good luck to us for the rest of the way. 

I also have another undisclosed parlay card that I am monitoring right now. 

I will have a link to the picture of it at the bottom of this message.  If you look at the payout, my local bookie is stiffing his customers big time with that payout. 

3  team is 6 which is correct at most
4 team is 11 which is better
5 teamer at 20
anything beyond this, he is stiffing his unexpected customers. 

I already won seattle + over tonight so for Friday, I am rooting for north illi and oregan ducks to cover...

I know how north illi played.  I have played and watched them and lost when I bet against then.  They have a pro status qb on that team and if betting, I rather pay for the better qb, especially when you need him for the last drive and under 2 minutes to go like that w. virginia game.   I have no idea to who ohio is so I am betting blindly against ohio.   I know they have a good record and that is about it. 

The spread is mighty high for them ducks to cover and oregon is 2-3 or something like that ATS when playing at home.  UCLA is 1-4 ATS when playing away. 

UCLA at 5-5 record and into the championship game?  Ucla might cover because that is a lot for a spread in a championship game however, I just can not lay any cheese on a 5-5 team.  It all depends on the mercy rule if ducks wants to either win in a sportsmanlike conduct by letting bruins to keep it close or they will embarrass them bruins by a mile and send them back home to learn the game of football all over again. 

Friday, my last 2 legs left are

North Illinois -4 <,--  yeah I know I bought the parlay at a bad line
Oregon -32 <-- another bad line

Let the games continue and parlay is for suckers....


https://pic100.picturetrail.com/VOL767/13383288/23846886/399845533.jpg

I now have an itchy feeling that them ducks are going to ruin my parlay so I have to protect myself. 

Dec 02 07:00 PM

CFB CFB

PARLAY (2 TEAMS) [30501] NO ILLINOIS -3-115 [30501] TOTAL o70½-110 (NO ILLINOIS vrs OHIO)

100 / 252.50

just my opinion, chalk it up as personal experience. If ya wanna be successful long term, ditch the parlays.

A vet like yourself, I will take that advice to the heart...  thanks smartbets...

parlay is a sucker bet for action but why bet just for fun?  I parlay for action most of my life and realized that I ended up not making money and if I depends on these one hit wonder big ticket parlay to cash, it'll probably end up being even or losing.  No fun in that at all. 

After this week and onward, I will do straight bets 90% of the time and if I feel the need to get stupid, I will parlay to play the lotto just to kick the habit. 

Time for some NFL straight bets.   First and off the bat, I am playing buffalo at home.  The ref in this game is 7-3 for the home team this season.  Buff is also 4-1 at home so basically, their only chances of winning a game is at home.   

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [348] BUFFALO -3+105

100/ 105

Second game is GB.  The ref for this game is jeff triplette 4-7 in favor of the away team. 

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [371] GREEN BAY -6½-110

100/ 90.90

I do not know which game ron winter is reffing but that guy has a record of 8-3 in favor of the home team.  I will slam it once I figure it out by sat. 




Raiders are perfect at 5-0 ATS when they play away.  Miami as we all have heard and by speculation is that they are not yet that good at home although respect for them this year with most of their winnings were at home.  I ride the nice stats on raider till it is broken.

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [351] OAKLAND +3-115

100/ 87

Detroit is 5-0 on the over when they play away.  Narleans is 3-2 at home.  Line makers are expecting a shootout thus why the line is a tad high. 

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [363] TOTAL o53½-110 (DETROIT vrs NEW ORLEANS)

100/ 90.90

Would love to buy houston under but that line has been dropped since opener at 41.  No value in taking it now but I like that under at 41.  Houston with 3rd string qb and houston all 4 games at home has been under.  ATL had 5 away games and getting 2 over and 3 unders. 



Mia and oakland, I like to play the under in this spot.  Mia is an under cashing cow machine.  1-10 favoring the under.  4 unders when they are at home which fit this spot.  6 under when they are away so take your pick.  I like this under here so I am going to play it a tad higher and whatever loose change I have left in my account. 

NFL

STRAIGHT BET [352] TOTAL u43½-110 (OAKLAND vrs MIAMI)

376.90 / 342.60

"I do not know which game ron winter is reffing but that guy has a record of 8-3 in favor of the home team.  I will slam it once I figure it out by sat.  "

Ron winters is on NE

NE has good value now at -20.5 

Indy is benching painter.   New QB changes = bad for business. 

Although my ref log for this year is a little bit skewed.  They are SU wins and not ATS. 

ncaaf straight bets for me since I lost most of my parlay cards and I will refrain from playing parlay aka sucker bets from now on. 

uconn +9
houston -13
whisky  -9.5
lsu -13
ok st. -3.5
vir tech -6.5
N. tex -5.5

If i go 4-3 for this week, that'll be good. 

adding Wyoming to rape Co. State. -5.5

Both teams are starting freshman QBs but wyoming qb is a tad better who is ranked 32nd in the nation in total offense.  Co state freshman only started co state last 2 games and he played like a true freshman. 

I am taking a risk here by going strong with a 3 unit play while the rest are 1U. 


================================================

kansas st. -10.5

kSU is 9-2 aTS this season.   They are playing at home against a team that upset Ok state to get their bowl eligibility status.  Iowa state is not that good when playing away.  They are just 2-3 and so I am not expecting an upset game here like they did at home with Ok state. 

This one will be a 2U play for me.   If I can with these two games, I would be in great shape to cover my other 1U plays....

I have to buy this one..

adding  New Mexico State. +14.5 

reason:  Utah state has not covered 14.5 points as a road fav since whenever.   Not only this, utah state is bowl eligible so this might be a let down game for them. 

Utah state weak spot is when playing away.  They are better at home.   NMS is a cover machine this year.   They are 7-5 overall covering the spread while utah st. is 6-5. 

Besides the ohio game where they lost at home by 20, they have only lost by less than 14 points at home.  Now they are getting +14.  NMS is playing tougher at home. 

buyer remorse I put in bold

Things I need to do better.

1.  Play half fav and half dog if possible. 

2.  Try not to read too much and just pick your dayam leans and stick by it.  Had an easy lean with Ul monroe but someone had to open up their mouth and say that fl atl is the real deal to scare me away from that easy win. 

I had ul monroe and n. tex was my strongest lean for this week too....fawk!!!!!

3.  Good thing the ncaaf season is going to be over.   If this continues, I will end up losing my azz off. 

4.  I see another possible filter to be used when capping but too bad the season is over except for the army/navy game for next week.  I will try to cap that game with such filter to see how she holds. 

The filter is to back track a team's record on fav and see their win loss statement for giving so and so points.  Like utah state, when they give 14 points as road fav, they have not cover in 19 years....that right there gave me a play on the new mexico state dogs. 

At least I still have the NFL.  I will try to incorporate that filter into the nfl and see how she stands.   So far, this week, is losing money week for me in the ncaaf.   I can't even hit straight up bets so how can I play parlay eh?  Logic just doesn't make any sense.  I need to graduate from breast feeding school before I try on them bottles. 

So frustrated watching these ncaaf games for this week but hey, at least I'm learning and I will be back for next year going stronger.