7-1 YTD (87.5%) NFL Week 7 Plays and Write ups

I like the TB pick....as well as CHI, and MIA....not diggin the Bills or AZ...the Bills with 14 though, MAYBE can squeek a cover in there, but Im still saying the Hawks are guarantee cover 6 pts against AZ. Poor Max Hall has never experienced anything as loud as Qwest Field and he will definitely make mistakes. Im pretty confident Seattle will win by 10 minimum.

NE/SD game is tough....Im definitely staying away from that one. Both high powered offenses to judge. Could go either way.

BOL in all your picks tho!

KC...

Here are my bets:

Atlanta: Atlanta better rushing offense, red zone eff, and 3rd down conv, Rushing defense, Red zone def, Turn Over Margins, Penalties, and strength of schedule.  I must say that Cinci passing game is better and its pass defense.

Bills +13

I haven’t locked this game in yet but if I do it is the game I like the least out of my leans.  Im throwing this out to hear some feedback to either lay off or make it a bet.

The public will think the bills are such a bad team and will get destroyed by an angry Ravens team that will be more focused due to their OT loss against the pats.  The ravens won't lose twice in a row and in the eyes of the public they are more likely to blow out the bills than it is for the ravens to win and fail to cover.  However, any time you see a number that is this high, there is value on the dog.  Will the Ravans really be focused for a full game to stay up 2 TDs on the Bills.  Personally I don’t think so.  This line should be +11 so IMO you are getting a couple of points of value on the dog.

From a matchup standpoint I see Fred Jackson as the key here.  He is supposedly going to get more touches and more involved in the Offense as his numbers have been really good for a very bad team.  Also Baltimore has not been that effective stopping the run this year like they have in years past.  Ray Rice is no slouch either and anytime you have two teams that have solid Running backs, it usually favors the big dog as those games tend to be close.  Personally I believe Jackson is the better runner than Rice.  The thing that has me concerned with this pick is how bad the Bills D is this year.  They are well rested, but can they stop Flacco to Boldin?

Would love to hear some thoughts on this game.

Just locked this one in

Car +3

A lot of people will think the Niners are a decent team after looking at the box score from this past week.  They covered the spread and won the game.  Now its time for the Niners to turn it around and win the division like everyone predicted.  Not so fast.  They beat a decent team with a horrible QB in Jason Cambell.  However, the niners looked horrible.  Believe me, I was on the niners last week but would love to fade them here.  The odds makers tell me that the Niners are a better team than the Panthers by 6 points.  NO way.  How in the world they had this line come out and have the Niners as road favorites to anyone is beyond me.  I think both of teams are bad but I think you get some great value here with the Panthers.  If the panthers can run the ball effectively and open up the big plays for steve smith, I like this play from a perception and matchup standpoint.

9ers got that monkey off their back, I see the turnovers ratio cutting down, now the pressure is off and they can get back to playing football. They made lose the first 5 games, but at least they have an identity.

Carolina on the other hand have been dealing with injuries (Smith) and they been swapping QB (Clausen/Moore) and that messes with chemistry.

"We're trying to find something that works, and if this is what it takes, this is what it takes," Moore said. "We've just got to win ballgames.

"We didn't win the first two ballgames that I played, and there was a change made. We haven't won the past three games, and there was a change made. That's just the way this business works. I understand why Coach Fox made that decision, and now it has come back to me."

If the 9ers can go 0-5, now that they've won their 1st game, I believe they can win back/back game. It's all momentum and the 9ers have momentum right now...not saying it won't be a dog fight.

Just locked this one in

Car +3

A lot of people will think the Niners are a decent team after looking at the box score from this past week.  They covered the spread and won the game.  Now its time for the Niners to turn it around and win the division like everyone predicted.  Not so fast.  They beat a decent team with a horrible QB in Jason Cambell.  However, the niners looked horrible.  Believe me, I was on the niners last week but would love to fade them here.  The odds makers tell me that the Niners are a better team than the Panthers by 6 points.  NO way.  How in the world they had this line come out and have the Niners as road favorites to anyone is beyond me.  I think both of teams are bad but I think you get some great value here with the Panthers.  If the panthers can run the ball effectively and open up the big plays for steve smith, I like this play from a perception and matchup standpoint.

Chi -2.5

IMO there is a little more value on the bears just because so many people got burned by them losing to a horrible road team in the Seahawks.  Then everyone saw how Redskins lose by just 3 to Manning and his Colts.  To the public, the Skins look like a sexy pick getting 3 points after big wins vs Green Bay and Philly.  The skins also had no reason for being in the game vs the colts as Colts played horrible in the 2^nd half.  Everyone seems to be lining up to bet on the Skins and due to these angles, I believe you are getting some value from the home team here.

As for the matchup I really like how Chicago has a solid run defense and Shanahan loves to pound the rock.  This was the reason for their little bit of success they had vs the colts.  This will not be the case this weekend as the Bears will dominate the Skins O-line and stop the run and put old man McNaab on his back. If they can get to him and force McNaab to make some bad throws and a couple mistakes, you can see Chicago dominate the time of possession.

Ari +6

I don't think either team is any good, but the road win the Seahawks had at Chicago definitely inflates a line by about 2 points.  Seattle is a good home team and that is the only negative remark I have on this play.  However, ARI is coming off the bye which gives Max Hall some extra time to get a bettergrasp on the offense.  The thing I like about Max Hall is that he is a scrappy player and give his body for every yard he gets.  I like him a lot better than Derek Anderson.  The key to this game for me is getting the ball to Fitzgerald.  I look for him to have a big game and I like Max Hall to get the ball in his hands