7-1 YTD (87.5%) NFL Week 7 Plays and Write ups

NFL YTD 7-1 +5.45 Units 87.5%

Had a great first week posting here at covers.  Went 5-1-2 last Sunday and 2-0 on Monday night.  On to this week.  These lines are getting tight.  After looking at the card and doing some research I have come up with some leans.  None of these plays are locked in yet as im waiting on some line movement and injury info.  Im trying to get these plays locked in a little earlier than usual because im headed off to Vegas this weekend and wont have time to post.  However, when I lock in a play, I will provide the play with the write up.

On to the leans:

Mia +3 – would love to get 3.5

Atl -3.5 – Would love to get 3

Chi -2.5

Buf +13

Car +3

TB -2.5

Ari +6

SD -2.5

I would love to here some thoughts and input on these plays.  Hopefully together we can take down the books.

The Steeler defense looks lost at times and gives up to many big plays.

Quote Originally Posted by Raidernator76:

shoot. sounds good to mean. in fact, think i'll put $10 and make it a parlay 8 teams

Your crazy man.  I dont do to many parlays.  Always seem to go 4-1 and never cash the ticket.  Did you end up taking the Rams ML last weekend? 

Just a heads up, I’m dropping the Falcons lean.  After crunching the numbers and looking at the line movement, the play for me would be Bengals or no play.  However, due to the line movement, I think the 1-2 point value the Bengals did have is gone and I decided I’m not going to play the game.  Plenty of better plays on the card.  Sorry if some of you already played the game but it was only a lean.

Bills +13

I haven’t locked this game in yet but if I do it is the game I like the least out of my leans.  Im throwing this out to hear some feedback to either lay off or make it a bet.

The public will think the bills are such a bad team and will get destroyed by an angry Ravens team that will be more focused due to their OT loss against the pats.  The ravens won't lose twice in a row and in the eyes of the public they are more likely to blow out the bills than it is for the ravens to win and fail to cover.  However, any time you see a number that is this high, there is value on the dog.  Will the Ravans really be focused for a full game to stay up 2 TDs on the Bills.  Personally I don’t think so.  This line should be +11 so IMO you are getting a couple of points of value on the dog.

From a matchup standpoint I see Fred Jackson as the key here.  He is supposedly going to get more touches and more involved in the Offense as his numbers have been really good for a very bad team.  Also Baltimore has not been that effective stopping the run this year like they have in years past.  Ray Rice is no slouch either and anytime you have two teams that have solid Running backs, it usually favors the big dog as those games tend to be close.  Personally I believe Jackson is the better runner than Rice.  The thing that has me concerned with this pick is how bad the Bills D is this year.  They are well rested, but can they stop Flacco to Boldin?

Would love to hear some thoughts on this game.

Quote Originally Posted by luckyly:

DENVER..LARGE..........

Good luck with your play.  I would lean to Denver but it is a no play for me.

I have the game capped as Max Hall starting.  IMO he is better than Derek Anderson.  Although playing at Qwest does scare me alittle bit.

Just locked this one in

Car +3

A lot of people will think the Niners are a decent team after looking at the box score from this past week.  They covered the spread and won the game.  Now its time for the Niners to turn it around and win the division like everyone predicted.  Not so fast.  They beat a decent team with a horrible QB in Jason Cambell.  However, the niners looked horrible.  Believe me, I was on the niners last week but would love to fade them here.  The odds makers tell me that the Niners are a better team than the Panthers by 6 points.  NO way.  How in the world they had this line come out and have the Niners as road favorites to anyone is beyond me.  I think both of teams are bad but I think you get some great value here with the Panthers.  If the panthers can run the ball effectively and open up the big plays for steve smith, I like this play from a perception and matchup standpoint.

True like i said, that HFA scares me.  I am doing a writeup on that game now.