7-1 YTD (87.5%) NFL Week 7 Plays and Write ups

Yea for them to travel across the county and play an early game will be tough on a team that has trouble finding a rythm as it is.

Bills +13

I haven’t locked this game in yet but if I do it is the game I like the least out of my leans.  Im throwing this out to hear some feedback to either lay off or make it a bet.

The public will think the bills are such a bad team and will get destroyed by an angry Ravens team that will be more focused due to their OT loss against the pats.  The ravens won't lose twice in a row and in the eyes of the public they are more likely to blow out the bills than it is for the ravens to win and fail to cover.  However, any time you see a number that is this high, there is value on the dog.  Will the Ravans really be focused for a full game to stay up 2 TDs on the Bills.  Personally I don’t think so.  This line should be +11 so IMO you are getting a couple of points of value on the dog.

From a matchup standpoint I see Fred Jackson as the key here.  He is supposedly going to get more touches and more involved in the Offense as his numbers have been really good for a very bad team.  Also Baltimore has not been that effective stopping the run this year like they have in years past.  Ray Rice is no slouch either and anytime you have two teams that have solid Running backs, it usually favors the big dog as those games tend to be close.  Personally I believe Jackson is the better runner than Rice.  The thing that has me concerned with this pick is how bad the Bills D is this year.  They are well rested, but can they stop Flacco to Boldin?

Would love to hear some thoughts on this game.

Got another one locked in.

TB -2.5

STL has been very bad on the road this year, especially in comparison to how they play at home. Last week’s results I’ve given value to the TB lines. The Bucs loss to the Saints and the Rams big SU win against a horrible road team in the Chargers, gives the public perception that the rams are better than they actually are.

As for the matchups the Rams win this game if Jackson has a good game.  Bradford is a good QB and I like him a lot but like I said, Jackson is the key to the game.  A big reason aside from the perception angle, as to why I like the Bucs is that I think their D-line keeps Jackson in check.  They will force Bradford into some tough 3^rd and longs and force him to throw it to some talentless receivers.

Those are some unflattering quotes from Moore.  I have to agree with you there.  But this bet is more from a value side with me.  Granted, SF is looking to turn this season around, they are not 6 points better than the Panthers.  Now if they brought this game out at a Pickem it would be a no bet for me, but I will take the value in the 3 points.   Who knows, maybe Carolina loses by two.  Thats would be ideal because I want the niners to win but i love my money more.