Hey Shawn, You are probably very confused right now with all this information. Although there is a lot of good insight in this thread, I just don't think its that's simple in terms of having the "formula" If it were that easy, everyone would do it, win and retire
GL with your picks moving forward.
Thank you GL to you and all of us too. I think I may be "confused" by means of differentiating values on bets. I have to figure out a way weigh out for balanced values.
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Quote Originally Posted by oldwiseone:
Hey Shawn, You are probably very confused right now with all this information. Although there is a lot of good insight in this thread, I just don't think its that's simple in terms of having the "formula" If it were that easy, everyone would do it, win and retire
GL with your picks moving forward.
Thank you GL to you and all of us too. I think I may be "confused" by means of differentiating values on bets. I have to figure out a way weigh out for balanced values.
If a line looks "off" and you're ready to pounce cuz you think a mistake has been made look closer at your analysis. In all likelihood your projected line is off, not the books.
No need to outrun the bear...just the next slowest guy
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If a line looks "off" and you're ready to pounce cuz you think a mistake has been made look closer at your analysis. In all likelihood your projected line is off, not the books.
If a line looks "off" and you're ready to pounce cuz you think a mistake has been made look closer at your analysis. In all likelihood your projected line is off, not the books.
I have trouble weighing value between the ATSs for the same game along with ML for the same game.
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Quote Originally Posted by Natty68:
If a line looks "off" and you're ready to pounce cuz you think a mistake has been made look closer at your analysis. In all likelihood your projected line is off, not the books.
I have trouble weighing value between the ATSs for the same game along with ML for the same game.
First thing I would ask are you keeping a journal of your bets, especially the losing bets. Examine your bets and see if their is a pattern to your losing. For example I noticed you took the Jags. I would have advised you to skip that selection. Garbage in Garbage Out. If you do not think a team has a reasonable chance to win the game, skip that play. I also recommend you skip bets where both teams are below average. I check several power rankings from various people, and if both teams consistently appear, I skip that game and move on.
The next thing to do is play to your betting style. I am steady freddy card counting player who looks for quality or to go against the lesser team. I am a technical handicapper, and sometimes see nuggets in a box score. Some players look for line value. Other guys are comfortable with an aggressive style. This season I am also practicing on my fundamental handicapping by doing practice entries for The LVH Superbook contest. I am not doing well, but the practice will pay off in the long run.
Practice doing game breakdowns. State how and why a team will win or an edge or disadvantage that will be a factor in winning or losing. I am also going to critique your picks on a follow up post.
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First thing I would ask are you keeping a journal of your bets, especially the losing bets. Examine your bets and see if their is a pattern to your losing. For example I noticed you took the Jags. I would have advised you to skip that selection. Garbage in Garbage Out. If you do not think a team has a reasonable chance to win the game, skip that play. I also recommend you skip bets where both teams are below average. I check several power rankings from various people, and if both teams consistently appear, I skip that game and move on.
The next thing to do is play to your betting style. I am steady freddy card counting player who looks for quality or to go against the lesser team. I am a technical handicapper, and sometimes see nuggets in a box score. Some players look for line value. Other guys are comfortable with an aggressive style. This season I am also practicing on my fundamental handicapping by doing practice entries for The LVH Superbook contest. I am not doing well, but the practice will pay off in the long run.
Practice doing game breakdowns. State how and why a team will win or an edge or disadvantage that will be a factor in winning or losing. I am also going to critique your picks on a follow up post.
on the bright side, it's gotta be worth $2K/year in the entertainment value
as long as you don't go overboard or have a problem with it, it's not really losing if you get 2K worth of fun in a year imo. It beats fantasy football.
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on the bright side, it's gotta be worth $2K/year in the entertainment value
as long as you don't go overboard or have a problem with it, it's not really losing if you get 2K worth of fun in a year imo. It beats fantasy football.
These guys are talking straight crap! Rule#1 in sports betting is you have to do your own research ! Rule#2 you have to watch a lot of games so that you can see the strength and weakness of the teams so you can understand the value of the line! Rule#3 The money management rule is very over rated, if a man bets 2% of the average roll of 500 , he will never win! RULE#4 THE AVERAGE 9 TO 5 WORK CAN NOT AFFORD TO GAMBLE! RULE#5 WHEN LOSING STREAK COME FALL BACK AND TAKE A BREAK! RULE#6 WHEN YOU ARE HOT JUST LET THE JUICES FLOW AND BET BIG THEN YOU WILL ENJOY THE FRUITLESS OF YOUR LABOR! RULE#7 NEVER BLINDLY Tail no fool on covers because 90% of these guys don't even wager 1 freakin cent, they just post for attention! Rule #8 To be good in anything you have to dedicate your time to the grind of sports world ! Rule#9 Never believe no team is unbeatable , I don't care what the record or margin of victory the previous 7 or 8 games! Rule #10 Experience is the best teacher!
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These guys are talking straight crap! Rule#1 in sports betting is you have to do your own research ! Rule#2 you have to watch a lot of games so that you can see the strength and weakness of the teams so you can understand the value of the line! Rule#3 The money management rule is very over rated, if a man bets 2% of the average roll of 500 , he will never win! RULE#4 THE AVERAGE 9 TO 5 WORK CAN NOT AFFORD TO GAMBLE! RULE#5 WHEN LOSING STREAK COME FALL BACK AND TAKE A BREAK! RULE#6 WHEN YOU ARE HOT JUST LET THE JUICES FLOW AND BET BIG THEN YOU WILL ENJOY THE FRUITLESS OF YOUR LABOR! RULE#7 NEVER BLINDLY Tail no fool on covers because 90% of these guys don't even wager 1 freakin cent, they just post for attention! Rule #8 To be good in anything you have to dedicate your time to the grind of sports world ! Rule#9 Never believe no team is unbeatable , I don't care what the record or margin of victory the previous 7 or 8 games! Rule #10 Experience is the best teacher!
@shawn0319, here is my critique of your selections. I did notice you said you had a feeling on the Bengals game and the Browns game, but went a different way. So that may have happened to you in the past.
Jax +6 This is a bad play from the start. Set yourself up for success.
Titans -3.5 This was one of my plays also. Mainly I was betting against the Cowboys. I believe Dallas is going to be up and down this season, and they just happen to be in the play good column that game.
Pats ML I like this play. You are turning the weakness of the unknown line factor, and going with who you think will win the game. It does put more money at risk, but NE winning was the probest the highest chance of occuring compared to NE covering, the Vikings winning , and the Vikings covering.
Saints ML Same as above. I avoid this play because I am a casual Saints fan, which might cloud my judgement. Also the Saints play worse on the road, and sometimes give away games to teams they should beat.
Falcons +5.5 I had more confidence the Bengals were going to win and cover, home team and outdoors.
Niners -7 I stayed away from this game, as a do not believe I have a solid read on either team, and I try to limit my play of games where the line is 7 or more.
Packers ML I like this play also. I had the Packers minus the points as one of my card entries. I knew it was a lot of points, but I also had the feeling the Jets would make a goofball play, and they did with the timeout. I also thought the Packers were in the mood to murderize a lesser team and stomp them into the ground.
Chargers + 6 I also skipped this game, just like the Niners/Bears contest. It is okay to skip games. You control your bets, not the other way around. I also might have leaned the Seahawks way.
As a closing note, you had better reads on games this weekend than I did. If you are wondering about my credibility, search for my username and read my posts from the 2013 season. I had a fairly good year last season, and I could have done a little better.
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@shawn0319, here is my critique of your selections. I did notice you said you had a feeling on the Bengals game and the Browns game, but went a different way. So that may have happened to you in the past.
Jax +6 This is a bad play from the start. Set yourself up for success.
Titans -3.5 This was one of my plays also. Mainly I was betting against the Cowboys. I believe Dallas is going to be up and down this season, and they just happen to be in the play good column that game.
Pats ML I like this play. You are turning the weakness of the unknown line factor, and going with who you think will win the game. It does put more money at risk, but NE winning was the probest the highest chance of occuring compared to NE covering, the Vikings winning , and the Vikings covering.
Saints ML Same as above. I avoid this play because I am a casual Saints fan, which might cloud my judgement. Also the Saints play worse on the road, and sometimes give away games to teams they should beat.
Falcons +5.5 I had more confidence the Bengals were going to win and cover, home team and outdoors.
Niners -7 I stayed away from this game, as a do not believe I have a solid read on either team, and I try to limit my play of games where the line is 7 or more.
Packers ML I like this play also. I had the Packers minus the points as one of my card entries. I knew it was a lot of points, but I also had the feeling the Jets would make a goofball play, and they did with the timeout. I also thought the Packers were in the mood to murderize a lesser team and stomp them into the ground.
Chargers + 6 I also skipped this game, just like the Niners/Bears contest. It is okay to skip games. You control your bets, not the other way around. I also might have leaned the Seahawks way.
As a closing note, you had better reads on games this weekend than I did. If you are wondering about my credibility, search for my username and read my posts from the 2013 season. I had a fairly good year last season, and I could have done a little better.
@shawn0319, here is my critique of your selections. I did notice you said you had a feeling on the Bengals game and the Browns game, but went a different way. So that may have happened to you in the past.
Jax +6 This is a bad play from the start. Set yourself up for success.
Titans -3.5 This was one of my plays also. Mainly I was betting against the Cowboys. I believe Dallas is going to be up and down this season, and they just happen to be in the play good column that game.
Pats ML I like this play. You are turning the weakness of the unknown line factor, and going with who you think will win the game. It does put more money at risk, but NE winning was the probest the highest chance of occuring compared to NE covering, the Vikings winning , and the Vikings covering.
Saints ML Same as above. I avoid this play because I am a casual Saints fan, which might cloud my judgement. Also the Saints play worse on the road, and sometimes give away games to teams they should beat.
Falcons +5.5 I had more confidence the Bengals were going to win and cover, home team and outdoors.
Niners -7 I stayed away from this game, as a do not believe I have a solid read on either team, and I try to limit my play of games where the line is 7 or more.
Packers ML I like this play also. I had the Packers minus the points as one of my card entries. I knew it was a lot of points, but I also had the feeling the Jets would make a goofball play, and they did with the timeout. I also thought the Packers were in the mood to murderize a lesser team and stomp them into the ground.
Chargers + 6 I also skipped this game, just like the Niners/Bears contest. It is okay to skip games. You control your bets, not the other way around. I also might have leaned the Seahawks way.
As a closing note, you had better reads on games this weekend than I did. If you are wondering about my credibility, search for my username and read my posts from the 2013 season. I had a fairly good year last season, and I could have done a little better.
Thank you so much. I'm trying to analyze factors of the game form all aspects. I'll go over rosters, injuries, and go with instincts that I get from watching the games. I can't watch all of them so I know I have to skip some of the games and be selective about my bets. I just have trouble sometimes weighing values and determining the optimum ROI.
Trying to be better at reading games in terms of how it'll be played at which pace and aprx how much scoring will there be at. Jag +6 was retarded too. Should've skipped that. I have to do more research.
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Quote Originally Posted by MagicMan64:
@shawn0319, here is my critique of your selections. I did notice you said you had a feeling on the Bengals game and the Browns game, but went a different way. So that may have happened to you in the past.
Jax +6 This is a bad play from the start. Set yourself up for success.
Titans -3.5 This was one of my plays also. Mainly I was betting against the Cowboys. I believe Dallas is going to be up and down this season, and they just happen to be in the play good column that game.
Pats ML I like this play. You are turning the weakness of the unknown line factor, and going with who you think will win the game. It does put more money at risk, but NE winning was the probest the highest chance of occuring compared to NE covering, the Vikings winning , and the Vikings covering.
Saints ML Same as above. I avoid this play because I am a casual Saints fan, which might cloud my judgement. Also the Saints play worse on the road, and sometimes give away games to teams they should beat.
Falcons +5.5 I had more confidence the Bengals were going to win and cover, home team and outdoors.
Niners -7 I stayed away from this game, as a do not believe I have a solid read on either team, and I try to limit my play of games where the line is 7 or more.
Packers ML I like this play also. I had the Packers minus the points as one of my card entries. I knew it was a lot of points, but I also had the feeling the Jets would make a goofball play, and they did with the timeout. I also thought the Packers were in the mood to murderize a lesser team and stomp them into the ground.
Chargers + 6 I also skipped this game, just like the Niners/Bears contest. It is okay to skip games. You control your bets, not the other way around. I also might have leaned the Seahawks way.
As a closing note, you had better reads on games this weekend than I did. If you are wondering about my credibility, search for my username and read my posts from the 2013 season. I had a fairly good year last season, and I could have done a little better.
Thank you so much. I'm trying to analyze factors of the game form all aspects. I'll go over rosters, injuries, and go with instincts that I get from watching the games. I can't watch all of them so I know I have to skip some of the games and be selective about my bets. I just have trouble sometimes weighing values and determining the optimum ROI.
Trying to be better at reading games in terms of how it'll be played at which pace and aprx how much scoring will there be at. Jag +6 was retarded too. Should've skipped that. I have to do more research.
Also make an effort to avoid yourself with too much analysis. There are plenty of game factors that mean little to a handicapper.
Right. I found myself over analyzing but something else happens during the game taken over by another factor (such as home advantage, weather, injury situation etc)
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Quote Originally Posted by MagicMan64:
Also make an effort to avoid yourself with too much analysis. There are plenty of game factors that mean little to a handicapper.
Right. I found myself over analyzing but something else happens during the game taken over by another factor (such as home advantage, weather, injury situation etc)
First thing I would ask are you keeping a journal of your bets, especially the losing bets. Examine your bets and see if their is a pattern to your losing. For example I noticed you took the Jags. I would have advised you to skip that selection. Garbage in Garbage Out. If you do not think a team has a reasonable chance to win the game, skip that play. I also recommend you skip bets where both teams are below average. I check several power rankings from various people, and if both teams consistently appear, I skip that game and move on.
The next thing to do is play to your betting style. I am steady freddy card counting player who looks for quality or to go against the lesser team. I am a technical handicapper, and sometimes see nuggets in a box score. Some players look for line value. Other guys are comfortable with an aggressive style. This season I am also practicing on my fundamental handicapping by doing practice entries for The LVH Superbook contest. I am not doing well, but the practice will pay off in the long run.
Practice doing game breakdowns. State how and why a team will win or an edge or disadvantage that will be a factor in winning or losing. I am also going to critique your picks on a follow up post.
Yes I'm doing that now for every games I'm betting on before and after the game, pregame and reviews. Thanks for the golden advice
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Quote Originally Posted by MagicMan64:
First thing I would ask are you keeping a journal of your bets, especially the losing bets. Examine your bets and see if their is a pattern to your losing. For example I noticed you took the Jags. I would have advised you to skip that selection. Garbage in Garbage Out. If you do not think a team has a reasonable chance to win the game, skip that play. I also recommend you skip bets where both teams are below average. I check several power rankings from various people, and if both teams consistently appear, I skip that game and move on.
The next thing to do is play to your betting style. I am steady freddy card counting player who looks for quality or to go against the lesser team. I am a technical handicapper, and sometimes see nuggets in a box score. Some players look for line value. Other guys are comfortable with an aggressive style. This season I am also practicing on my fundamental handicapping by doing practice entries for The LVH Superbook contest. I am not doing well, but the practice will pay off in the long run.
Practice doing game breakdowns. State how and why a team will win or an edge or disadvantage that will be a factor in winning or losing. I am also going to critique your picks on a follow up post.
Yes I'm doing that now for every games I'm betting on before and after the game, pregame and reviews. Thanks for the golden advice
It's very simple, great gamblers like great poker players usually lose it all and then some. Why? They are degenerates and can't control themselves.
If you flat bet and control your emotions after a loss, you'll be a profitable gambler.
Virtually NO ONE does this (i.e. Chase, parlays, round Robin, etc etc Etc) and the books eventually...get it all.
That is why they let you choose either team even if it's a shrewd pick (take the browns over the saints as an example).
They don't care how smart you are. Because eventually, you'll lose a crushing bet and the first thing you will do is look for how to get it back.
And you'll bet a game or sport you have little to know info on.
And ultimately, you'll lose it all and be in the red even if your record is >60%!
Sound familiar?
It is.
It is the story of virtually every single bettor.
Avoid that degenerate blueprint and you will profit.
For the most part, you are dead on. However, if you pick your spots and get tremedous odds, parlays are the way to go. Some wont believe me, but I've doen very well with parlays and round robins. Hitting a few monster plays per year is actually easier than grinding out 53% on straight bets.....imo of course
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
It's very simple, great gamblers like great poker players usually lose it all and then some. Why? They are degenerates and can't control themselves.
If you flat bet and control your emotions after a loss, you'll be a profitable gambler.
Virtually NO ONE does this (i.e. Chase, parlays, round Robin, etc etc Etc) and the books eventually...get it all.
That is why they let you choose either team even if it's a shrewd pick (take the browns over the saints as an example).
They don't care how smart you are. Because eventually, you'll lose a crushing bet and the first thing you will do is look for how to get it back.
And you'll bet a game or sport you have little to know info on.
And ultimately, you'll lose it all and be in the red even if your record is >60%!
Sound familiar?
It is.
It is the story of virtually every single bettor.
Avoid that degenerate blueprint and you will profit.
For the most part, you are dead on. However, if you pick your spots and get tremedous odds, parlays are the way to go. Some wont believe me, but I've doen very well with parlays and round robins. Hitting a few monster plays per year is actually easier than grinding out 53% on straight bets.....imo of course
3. Bet towards your strength ( for example if you have more success betting totals stay with totals, if u love betting props like myself stay with props.
4. DONT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES EVER NEVER EVER EVER LISTEN TO ANYBODY. BET YOUR OWN PLAYS. I don't tail or follow or use anybody's plays or touts. Nothing sways my opinion. BECOME YOUR OWN INDIVIDUAL HANDICAPPER! That's very important
5. Always remember that betting is not a race its a marathon. I focus on yearly winnings instead of most handicappers who are focused on daily winnings who have to bet every day just cause there is games on the board they have to bet. Ive taken weeks off from betting just to recharge my handicapping battery
Best guidance - especially #1
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Quote Originally Posted by babyraymond:
5 main keys to winning in betting
1. Money Management
2. Discipline
3. Bet towards your strength ( for example if you have more success betting totals stay with totals, if u love betting props like myself stay with props.
4. DONT UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES EVER NEVER EVER EVER LISTEN TO ANYBODY. BET YOUR OWN PLAYS. I don't tail or follow or use anybody's plays or touts. Nothing sways my opinion. BECOME YOUR OWN INDIVIDUAL HANDICAPPER! That's very important
5. Always remember that betting is not a race its a marathon. I focus on yearly winnings instead of most handicappers who are focused on daily winnings who have to bet every day just cause there is games on the board they have to bet. Ive taken weeks off from betting just to recharge my handicapping battery
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