People are wondering why the scoring is down in the nfl this year.
People are wondering why traditional QB's like Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers and Matt Ryan aren't doing well.
My theory, is that defenses have been constructed(for some time now) to stop the modern passing game. It is an analytical time in sports no matter if we like it or not, and analytics has proven passing more efficient than running.
Defenses today are particularly good when the offense is not balanced, and lastly do not have a mobile QB.
Who's winning with what formula? The Bills with Josh Allen, Chiefs with Mahomes, the Giants with Danny Dimes. You can also say that the Falcons have exceeded expectations with Marriota(6-1 ats). Oddly Matt Ryan left the Falcons for Indy, and he's benched after week 7. For a guy from Texas who is mobile. Lamar, Fields, Murray, Heineke are all qb's that can tuck it and run.
I feel that the Bucs are the best example of my theory. They can't run with their RB's, Fournette is long in the tooth and there is something broken with their run scheme. Tom Brady is the most immobile qb in the league. There isn't much to think about when defending them.
It doesn't bother me one bit. When I see teams going over 200 yards rushing a game it makes me feel like old school football is back.
4
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
People are wondering why the scoring is down in the nfl this year.
People are wondering why traditional QB's like Tom Brady, Aaron Rogers and Matt Ryan aren't doing well.
My theory, is that defenses have been constructed(for some time now) to stop the modern passing game. It is an analytical time in sports no matter if we like it or not, and analytics has proven passing more efficient than running.
Defenses today are particularly good when the offense is not balanced, and lastly do not have a mobile QB.
Who's winning with what formula? The Bills with Josh Allen, Chiefs with Mahomes, the Giants with Danny Dimes. You can also say that the Falcons have exceeded expectations with Marriota(6-1 ats). Oddly Matt Ryan left the Falcons for Indy, and he's benched after week 7. For a guy from Texas who is mobile. Lamar, Fields, Murray, Heineke are all qb's that can tuck it and run.
I feel that the Bucs are the best example of my theory. They can't run with their RB's, Fournette is long in the tooth and there is something broken with their run scheme. Tom Brady is the most immobile qb in the league. There isn't much to think about when defending them.
It doesn't bother me one bit. When I see teams going over 200 yards rushing a game it makes me feel like old school football is back.
I was literally thinking this same thing but about the NBA like could those old school team defenses back in the day beat these high powered offenses today? Do analytics suggest if you jack up 50 3's a game with 10 sec on the shot clock does it give a team an exceptional chance to win no matter the Def there going up against? Then again both games (NFL/NBA) were a lot more physical so officiating of course plays a major factor as well why the games have changed so much
0
I was literally thinking this same thing but about the NBA like could those old school team defenses back in the day beat these high powered offenses today? Do analytics suggest if you jack up 50 3's a game with 10 sec on the shot clock does it give a team an exceptional chance to win no matter the Def there going up against? Then again both games (NFL/NBA) were a lot more physical so officiating of course plays a major factor as well why the games have changed so much
There are just more bad offenses than usual this year, and the worst teams in the league are the ones with bad offense.
The biggest factor is teams now are a lot more focused on red zone defense as it is so important. And a lot of teams suck in the red zone on offense.
Also, the new aggressive/anayltics BS that literally has me wanting to quit betting on football altogether, is partly to blame. You'd think it would push up scoring but it doesn't because these teams are getting stuffed at a far higher rate than they seem to think is likely. So there have been less field goal attempts.
In addition to that, kicking seems to be more iffy last 2 years. We have some guys who are just automatic but there are some teams struggling with it and the longer PATs cause more misses too. Then after a miss some teams go for two and can't get it, so lots of games have points go missing now.
We shortened the preseason and lengthened the season. We have lots of coaching changes and personell changes at teams so it is taking them time to find their rhythm. It will likely increase as we get into the 2nd half of the season but not by much.
If teams would go back to kicking FGs that would help. Turnover on downs is the trendiest way to end a drive now though.
1
There are just more bad offenses than usual this year, and the worst teams in the league are the ones with bad offense.
The biggest factor is teams now are a lot more focused on red zone defense as it is so important. And a lot of teams suck in the red zone on offense.
Also, the new aggressive/anayltics BS that literally has me wanting to quit betting on football altogether, is partly to blame. You'd think it would push up scoring but it doesn't because these teams are getting stuffed at a far higher rate than they seem to think is likely. So there have been less field goal attempts.
In addition to that, kicking seems to be more iffy last 2 years. We have some guys who are just automatic but there are some teams struggling with it and the longer PATs cause more misses too. Then after a miss some teams go for two and can't get it, so lots of games have points go missing now.
We shortened the preseason and lengthened the season. We have lots of coaching changes and personell changes at teams so it is taking them time to find their rhythm. It will likely increase as we get into the 2nd half of the season but not by much.
If teams would go back to kicking FGs that would help. Turnover on downs is the trendiest way to end a drive now though.
The game sure is changing. They change the rules benefitting offense (and for safety purposes), and now scoring is down, for now. Strange. Analytics do have a role, and should be used, situationally.
I strongly disagree that a coach should just look at the odds and follow the analytics flow chart no matter the situation.......football is not poker.......and I do not believe that the idea in poker that "as long as you make the right mathematical decision you make money over time" transfers cleanly over to football. There are too many variables, people, oblong ball lol, etc..... In poker there are 52 predictable cards, and math is math.
It boggles my mind the most when these teams are struggling in a game, and down 14, chasing all game, and score a TD, and then go for 2 when they are down 8. Those who think "all analytics..... all the time" forget that there is additional unseen pressure on a team knowing they still do not have a chance to even TIE the game should then manage to get a stop and score another TD, UNLESS they hit that 2 point try on that next TD. This is the stuff I feel is lost in the analytics debate. If you have never played the game, it might not ring true to you, but a coach can lose a team and locker room by doing that. There are members of that team that are thinking, "Damn, this guy wants to throw this effort away by potentially not giving us a chance to even go into OT and try to sneak out a win here." Other guys will appreciate the coach having confidence in them, but some will think the coach just wants to be a hero. The coach can always just fall back on the excuse of "The analytics told us to do it"
I fully understand the math behind the decision to do that, but it is a people and game flow decision too. I know that "long term it is the better mathematical decision" and I am not arguing that, but in the moment sometimes you just have to play football and take the points you can get. I am not getting into a debate on analytics, because I think they are useful, I just think football is in a strange phase right now where there is almost too much information. It is never gonna be a perfect situation to make the perfect decision all the time.
0
The game sure is changing. They change the rules benefitting offense (and for safety purposes), and now scoring is down, for now. Strange. Analytics do have a role, and should be used, situationally.
I strongly disagree that a coach should just look at the odds and follow the analytics flow chart no matter the situation.......football is not poker.......and I do not believe that the idea in poker that "as long as you make the right mathematical decision you make money over time" transfers cleanly over to football. There are too many variables, people, oblong ball lol, etc..... In poker there are 52 predictable cards, and math is math.
It boggles my mind the most when these teams are struggling in a game, and down 14, chasing all game, and score a TD, and then go for 2 when they are down 8. Those who think "all analytics..... all the time" forget that there is additional unseen pressure on a team knowing they still do not have a chance to even TIE the game should then manage to get a stop and score another TD, UNLESS they hit that 2 point try on that next TD. This is the stuff I feel is lost in the analytics debate. If you have never played the game, it might not ring true to you, but a coach can lose a team and locker room by doing that. There are members of that team that are thinking, "Damn, this guy wants to throw this effort away by potentially not giving us a chance to even go into OT and try to sneak out a win here." Other guys will appreciate the coach having confidence in them, but some will think the coach just wants to be a hero. The coach can always just fall back on the excuse of "The analytics told us to do it"
I fully understand the math behind the decision to do that, but it is a people and game flow decision too. I know that "long term it is the better mathematical decision" and I am not arguing that, but in the moment sometimes you just have to play football and take the points you can get. I am not getting into a debate on analytics, because I think they are useful, I just think football is in a strange phase right now where there is almost too much information. It is never gonna be a perfect situation to make the perfect decision all the time.
Offensive lines are also the worst they have ever been, so the mobile quarterbacks you are listing above have an advantage, as everyone is running for their lives from the pocket. Mahomes and Allen especially as their arms are still feared more than their legs.
0
Offensive lines are also the worst they have ever been, so the mobile quarterbacks you are listing above have an advantage, as everyone is running for their lives from the pocket. Mahomes and Allen especially as their arms are still feared more than their legs.
JDD / Nuttinbuttlove / Undermysac - I respect you all as great contributors here - I just disagree with SOME of what you are saying about analytics.
First - I hate the term analytics. It is overused, and mostly used to explain "new" types of decisions being made in football.
I think we are all looking through the lens of decades of incorrect and poor game theory decisions in football. Have they gone too far in the opposite direction - like a rubber band effect? Maybe. But I do think in 10 years if we got back together a lot of the decisions that look odd now will make more sense once we have larger sample sizes.
One thing I notice a lot is that these new decisions are often labelled as "wrong" or "stupid" because they dont succeed. Whether the play in question works or not - doesnt mean the decision was right or wrong - it just means in that instance it didnt work. I find that people point to a singular decision and outcome and say "it was stupid".
And a lot of these decisions come when the odds are seriously against you no matter what you choose. Kind of like having a 16 in blackjack against a 7. You are supposed to hit, but it is a very tight decision - and either way - you are going to lose a lot more than you win.
I am happy to see coaches using more game theory in their decisions. It adds spice to the game and banter. I also have been calling for this through frustration for the decades I have been watching football - from a gambling perspective - not a fans. I am not a fan - and I can see how this would disrupt a fans enjoyment of the game.
Just some thoughts...
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
JDD / Nuttinbuttlove / Undermysac - I respect you all as great contributors here - I just disagree with SOME of what you are saying about analytics.
First - I hate the term analytics. It is overused, and mostly used to explain "new" types of decisions being made in football.
I think we are all looking through the lens of decades of incorrect and poor game theory decisions in football. Have they gone too far in the opposite direction - like a rubber band effect? Maybe. But I do think in 10 years if we got back together a lot of the decisions that look odd now will make more sense once we have larger sample sizes.
One thing I notice a lot is that these new decisions are often labelled as "wrong" or "stupid" because they dont succeed. Whether the play in question works or not - doesnt mean the decision was right or wrong - it just means in that instance it didnt work. I find that people point to a singular decision and outcome and say "it was stupid".
And a lot of these decisions come when the odds are seriously against you no matter what you choose. Kind of like having a 16 in blackjack against a 7. You are supposed to hit, but it is a very tight decision - and either way - you are going to lose a lot more than you win.
I am happy to see coaches using more game theory in their decisions. It adds spice to the game and banter. I also have been calling for this through frustration for the decades I have been watching football - from a gambling perspective - not a fans. I am not a fan - and I can see how this would disrupt a fans enjoyment of the game.
gracias.....I have been looking for new podcasts lately and i didnt even know about this one. Lately I have been listening to "Absolute Degeneracy", "The OddsBreakers", and "You Better You Bet" on my way home from work.
1230AM "The Gambler" is pretty good. Its a whole AM station that just talks sides and totals pretty much 24/7. Reception goes in and out though sometimes.
gracias.....I have been looking for new podcasts lately and i didnt even know about this one. Lately I have been listening to "Absolute Degeneracy", "The OddsBreakers", and "You Better You Bet" on my way home from work.
1230AM "The Gambler" is pretty good. Its a whole AM station that just talks sides and totals pretty much 24/7. Reception goes in and out though sometimes.
Hear you loud and clear. I myself didn't crap on "analytics" in my opening post. Just saying that it proved passing as more efficient than running. And that is why defenses have been building their schemes and players to combat the pass.
Now we are seeing offenses revert their own schemes(and players) to a run heavy attack, and QB's who are a dual threat.
Someone is always ahead of someone in this game of chess.
Last Sunday vs the Jaguars, Daniel Jones completed 0 passes in the 4th quarter, and the Giants won.
1
@vanzack
Hear you loud and clear. I myself didn't crap on "analytics" in my opening post. Just saying that it proved passing as more efficient than running. And that is why defenses have been building their schemes and players to combat the pass.
Now we are seeing offenses revert their own schemes(and players) to a run heavy attack, and QB's who are a dual threat.
Someone is always ahead of someone in this game of chess.
Last Sunday vs the Jaguars, Daniel Jones completed 0 passes in the 4th quarter, and the Giants won.
To your specific points on Brady, Rogers, and Matt Ryan, my observations are as follows ;
Brady - So many distractions here to say the least. I mentioned in another thread there are a number of issues plaguing Brady. Marital Issues (which is now a divorce), No Gronk for Brady to throw to, and a new coach that appears to be a big step down from Arians. I question at this point just how much Brady respects Todd Bowles. The guy (Bowles) seems soft, unlike Arians.
Rogers - I'm sure there's more to it than this, but people are underestimating the loss of WRs Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Davante Adams in the off-season. I thought there would be better chemistry between Rogers/WRs by now, but maybe the talent just ain't there.
Ryan - He just sucks. No further analysis is needed. lol.
0
To your specific points on Brady, Rogers, and Matt Ryan, my observations are as follows ;
Brady - So many distractions here to say the least. I mentioned in another thread there are a number of issues plaguing Brady. Marital Issues (which is now a divorce), No Gronk for Brady to throw to, and a new coach that appears to be a big step down from Arians. I question at this point just how much Brady respects Todd Bowles. The guy (Bowles) seems soft, unlike Arians.
Rogers - I'm sure there's more to it than this, but people are underestimating the loss of WRs Marquez Valdez-Scantling and Davante Adams in the off-season. I thought there would be better chemistry between Rogers/WRs by now, but maybe the talent just ain't there.
Ryan - He just sucks. No further analysis is needed. lol.
@vanzack Hear you loud and clear. I myself didn't crap on "analytics" in my opening post. Just saying that it proved passing as more efficient than running. And that is why defenses have been building their schemes and players to combat the pass. Now we are seeing offenses revert their own schemes(and players) to a run heavy attack, and QB's who are a dual threat. Someone is always ahead of someone in this game of chess. Last Sunday vs the Jaguars, Daniel Jones completed 0 passes in the 4th quarter, and the Giants won.
And it is timely that the Ravens somehow only ran 7 times in the first half last night - and then steamrolled running the ball in the second.
I am a big fan of the running game also. Especially, the new style of running game that has so many different looks and options.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by undermysac:
@vanzack Hear you loud and clear. I myself didn't crap on "analytics" in my opening post. Just saying that it proved passing as more efficient than running. And that is why defenses have been building their schemes and players to combat the pass. Now we are seeing offenses revert their own schemes(and players) to a run heavy attack, and QB's who are a dual threat. Someone is always ahead of someone in this game of chess. Last Sunday vs the Jaguars, Daniel Jones completed 0 passes in the 4th quarter, and the Giants won.
And it is timely that the Ravens somehow only ran 7 times in the first half last night - and then steamrolled running the ball in the second.
I am a big fan of the running game also. Especially, the new style of running game that has so many different looks and options.
With all due respect about your assessment of Brady, I really don't think the guy is playing too bad. Everyone expects him to carry his team, and be great. I think he needs a little help from his friends honestly. He himself has thrown 8 td's to 1 pic. He's 5th in DYAR, 8th in DVOA and comp %.
But Tampa is 31st in rush dvoa. Their o line is 28th in adjusted line yards, and their RB's are slow footed plodders, only gaining 3.36 RB yards which is 31st.
We all know that Brady ain't scrambling away from anyone or running rpo's. The Bucs lead the league in passing play percentage at 68.41%. Is it really hard for a defense to defend the Bucs?
Kinds have to tip your cap to the man, he's going through some off field shit, battling age, and still playing better than 60% of the qb's in the league.
0
@Rush51
With all due respect about your assessment of Brady, I really don't think the guy is playing too bad. Everyone expects him to carry his team, and be great. I think he needs a little help from his friends honestly. He himself has thrown 8 td's to 1 pic. He's 5th in DYAR, 8th in DVOA and comp %.
But Tampa is 31st in rush dvoa. Their o line is 28th in adjusted line yards, and their RB's are slow footed plodders, only gaining 3.36 RB yards which is 31st.
We all know that Brady ain't scrambling away from anyone or running rpo's. The Bucs lead the league in passing play percentage at 68.41%. Is it really hard for a defense to defend the Bucs?
Kinds have to tip your cap to the man, he's going through some off field shit, battling age, and still playing better than 60% of the qb's in the league.
Offensive lines are also the worst they have ever been, so the mobile quarterbacks you are listing above have an advantage, as everyone is running for their lives from the pocket. Mahomes and Allen especially as their arms are still feared more than their legs.
Offensive linemen have a lot on their plate these days. They are pulling more than ever, with jet sweeps, designed qb powers and such. And rpo's are tricky, because if the qb pulls the ball to throw, they can't be down field.
Also, consider the minimal practice time they are allowed to get all these schemes right. When it's time for a pure drop back pass, they are in a 2 point stance and on their heels pass protecting. The mobile qb's can avoid some of the missed protections. The statues get in trouble.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Greedybastard:
Offensive lines are also the worst they have ever been, so the mobile quarterbacks you are listing above have an advantage, as everyone is running for their lives from the pocket. Mahomes and Allen especially as their arms are still feared more than their legs.
Offensive linemen have a lot on their plate these days. They are pulling more than ever, with jet sweeps, designed qb powers and such. And rpo's are tricky, because if the qb pulls the ball to throw, they can't be down field.
Also, consider the minimal practice time they are allowed to get all these schemes right. When it's time for a pure drop back pass, they are in a 2 point stance and on their heels pass protecting. The mobile qb's can avoid some of the missed protections. The statues get in trouble.
I’m always looking for new podcasts to kill time in the car. The action network has a ton of good podcast content IMO. It’s all whatever and for my entertainment only but BBOC is a great college pod, the favorites is good and the action network podcast drops some knowledge. I still listen to RJ And Fez when I have time but I’m souring a bit on them. I’ll check out the ones you mentioned
0
@JDD
I’m always looking for new podcasts to kill time in the car. The action network has a ton of good podcast content IMO. It’s all whatever and for my entertainment only but BBOC is a great college pod, the favorites is good and the action network podcast drops some knowledge. I still listen to RJ And Fez when I have time but I’m souring a bit on them. I’ll check out the ones you mentioned
I loved the explanation of the Mike LB being slow as an issue defending guys like Fields. We will see vs Dallas if his bad mechanics rear their head and create turnovers. Dallas has more playmakers on D.
Made me reconsider taking the bears and the points lol
Good shit.
0
@undermysac
I just devoured some of that GM Shuffle
I loved the explanation of the Mike LB being slow as an issue defending guys like Fields. We will see vs Dallas if his bad mechanics rear their head and create turnovers. Dallas has more playmakers on D.
Made me reconsider taking the bears and the points lol
@JDD I’m always looking for new podcasts to kill time in the car. The action network has a ton of good podcast content IMO. It’s all whatever and for my entertainment only but BBOC is a great college pod, the favorites is good and the action network podcast drops some knowledge. I still listen to RJ And Fez when I have time but I’m souring a bit on them. I’ll check out the ones you mentioned
@ChOdaZ
Yeah, I am really new to the whole podcast scene, I used to like my afternoon and morning sports radio guys but the radio changed it up on me and also I moved. Been searching out podcasts almost daily lately. There are some good gambling ones for sure. Way more than I mentioned. If you just search sports betting......forget about it......a bunch come up
0
Quote Originally Posted by ChOdaZ:
@JDD I’m always looking for new podcasts to kill time in the car. The action network has a ton of good podcast content IMO. It’s all whatever and for my entertainment only but BBOC is a great college pod, the favorites is good and the action network podcast drops some knowledge. I still listen to RJ And Fez when I have time but I’m souring a bit on them. I’ll check out the ones you mentioned
@ChOdaZ
Yeah, I am really new to the whole podcast scene, I used to like my afternoon and morning sports radio guys but the radio changed it up on me and also I moved. Been searching out podcasts almost daily lately. There are some good gambling ones for sure. Way more than I mentioned. If you just search sports betting......forget about it......a bunch come up
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.
@undermysac
Hot Forum Topics
