I think your analyzing this way to much. The Bears allow pass yards, can't score in the red zone, are not balanced offensively. Martz is pass obsessed. Cutler nearly gave the game away yesterday several times and was pressured relentlessly (in part to Martz 15 step drops). This was the statement game for them, and just like the rest of the year they barely won.
Sure the general logic is that they got lucky, but you will still see a higher percentage of plays for the Bears on the consensus with movement against that on the line.
Yes the Giants have problems, in the locker room and on the field. But they've moved the ball well vs the Titans, just took a ton of turnovers and penalties. Eli's INT's have had several deflections this year. They just keep making mistakes. Could keep going? Sure. But when you think about the situiation.......
Bears short week, off a huge monday night win, home to away. 3-0.
Giants off huge home loss, one they should have likely won. A week prior the public spanking vs the Colts. Fever pitch in New York right now over the HC and Team. Now this alone is money enough, but you put it on Sunday night and it puts it over the edge.
The G-men know 1 win puts them back in the race and silences the critics. They have a chance to do this against the undefeated Bears and trust me the Giants won't enter this game thinking the Bears are lucky, they will only see 3-0 and a chance to right the ship.
A lot of the good teams are pass-obsessed. That's the league these days. What makes you think the Giants won't be plagued again by penalties and turnovers? The Bears are very opportunistic that way. Looking at the spread/total it looks like we're calling for the Giants to score 24. I don't understand why. Packers and Cowboys (and Lions) couldn't score 24. Why Giants? Bears and under 44. Another score like yesterday, 20-17 one way or the other.