All Forums | NFL Betting

And Now You Bang the Niners

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 9251
Posts: 75
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Aug, 2008
Posts: 828
Posted: #26
Sf 28th ranked pass def va Rodgers !?!??
Kap gonna have to throw the ball?!?!!

Crazy talk. Pack all day.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 3661
Posted: #27
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:

Quote Originally Posted by degengambler34:

I wanna hear some actual x and o talk from you, not this stupid situational crap. The niners have faced 2 elite quarterbacks in back to back weeks and got absolutely housed. Their secondary is the worst in the nfl and it's not even close. I'm not saying it's a bad pick but I need some reasons to back them other than some situational crap. Especially considering they're going up vs the best qb to ever play, and because the Packers have revenge on their minds
You won't like this, and I understand why, but I'm just not that interested in X's and O's when it comes to NFL wagering. You know those tip sheets they give out at Vegas sportsbooks? They're filled with stats to "help"you make a decision. Problem is, the books are never going to give away anything to help the player win. They give you those stats because, well, they're pretty much meaningless. ANYONE in the world can access those stats. ANYONE from Augusta, Maine to Kathmandu, Nepal can tell you that the Niners have been a train wreck. You know when I quoted stats and thought they meant something? When I was a child.I cap the NFL by (at least trying) to stay one step ahead of public perception. It's how I was taught, and quite frankly, I don't believe there is any other way to be successful long-term at this hobby. Yes, the Niners are bad. Yes, the Packers are good. And yes, I know this isn't how many of you think capping should be done. But I've done well with this hobby by anticipating the future rather than reacting to the past, even if that often means making a wager that the masses view with antipathy.  I'll take the best number I can get and go from there. If it loses, so be it. This is a hobby, not a job. Good luck.

Very well put. I see your method now, and I get it. Perceptions huge. Great points
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 672
Posted: #28
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:


You won't like this, and I understand why, but I'm just not that interested in X's and O's when it comes to NFL wagering. 

You know those tip sheets they give out at Vegas sportsbooks? They're filled with stats to "help"you make a decision. Problem is, the books are never going to give away anything to help the player win. They give you those stats because, well, they're pretty much meaningless. ANYONE in the world can access those stats. ANYONE from Augusta, Maine to Kathmandu, Nepal can tell you that the Niners have been a train wreck. You know when I quoted stats and thought they meant something? When I was a child.

I cap the NFL by (at least trying) to stay one step ahead of public perception. It's how I was taught, and quite frankly, I don't believe there is any other way to be successful long-term at this hobby. 

Yes, the Niners are bad. Yes, the Packers are good. And yes, I know this isn't how many of you think capping should be done. 

But I've done well with this hobby by anticipating the future rather than reacting to the past, even if that often means making a wager that the masses view with antipathy.  

I'll take the best number I can get and go from there. If it loses, so be it. This is a hobby, not a job. 

Good luck. 

I can feel ya. The line has the possibility of being a little high to spank Mr. Public and make back some of that paper they have been giving out.

 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2010
Posts: 33047
Posted: #29
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:


You won't like this, and I understand why, but I'm just not that interested in X's and O's when it comes to NFL wagering. 

You know those tip sheets they give out at Vegas sportsbooks? They're filled with stats to "help"you make a decision. Problem is, the books are never going to give away anything to help the player win. They give you those stats because, well, they're pretty much meaningless. ANYONE in the world can access those stats. ANYONE from Augusta, Maine to Kathmandu, Nepal can tell you that the Niners have been a train wreck. You know when I quoted stats and thought they meant something? When I was a child.

I cap the NFL by (at least trying) to stay one step ahead of public perception. It's how I was taught, and quite frankly, I don't believe there is any other way to be successful long-term at this hobby. 

Yes, the Niners are bad. Yes, the Packers are good. And yes, I know this isn't how many of you think capping should be done. 

But I've done well with this hobby by anticipating the future rather than reacting to the past, even if that often means making a wager that the masses view with antipathy.  

I'll take the best number I can get and go from there. If it loses, so be it. This is a hobby, not a job. 

Good luck. 


Histrionic personality disorder. It's sad
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 915
Posted: #30

You can argue all day with the eye test and the better team bettors. They won't get it...

Is it a risky wager? By all means. Will it be a popular pick around the water cooler? You will be laughed down the hallway...

That said, as a situational bettor it doesn't get much better. Classic flat spot coming off a prime time game. Best time to buy low/sell high. Hopefully public perception will push the line to a manageable number to play 49ers at home.

Other then the ole sandwich spot, this is another great angle to play. Win or lose, these spots are the ways to profit long-term.

GL

 

 

 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2015
Posts: 328
Posted: #31
Niners own the Pack in the past but with this Niners make over is not good enough to beat a SB contender. Packers win a 1 score game..
 
Rookie
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2013
Posts: 768
Posted: #32
Last year Rodgers had a 25:0 td:int ratio at home and 13:5 on the road. He's not invincible on the road. They have 2 healthy receivers and one was signed off the street a few weeks ago. Lacy is banged up and will continue to see 60-70% snaps on a short week. Short week, west coast, and a mobile qb they have always struggled against

greenbay has shown they can be ran on by rb and qb. San Fran will recommit to Hyde this week after kaps performance and probably have him throwing high percentage throws when he does throw. This game will not be a blowout
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jun, 2012
Posts: 313
Posted: #33
Preface: currently a no play for me for the obvious secondary mismatch. If the line gets a little better, I may be inclined to take SF as I capped them at +13

The 49ers would not be a bad play. 
1. Home dog after two losses, and I expect them to be motivated. My book has them +10.5. I like this number in almost any matchup that doesn't include Jacksonville or New England (jags never score, pats are out to embarrass folks). 
2. Short week for the pack and they have to travel cross country. 
3. Recent history shows the 49ers have the packers number.
4. Packers get SF, Rams, and SD in the next three. None a super threat, which means GB can easily get caught sleeping. Win games, but not all likely to be a blowout. 
5. I believe Kaep follows terrible games with traditional pick up games. I expect him to run well against GB. If that happens, then he could open up the secondary to throw. GB played solid d against KC early, but their second half showed holes. Kaep's style is a little better to exploit it than GB. I don't think GB scores 38 again, and I think the miners are due (gut, no stats) to score a few points. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 2604
Posted: #34
This is going to be a good game for the niners. We will learn what this team is made of.
 
Hall of Fame
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2007
Posts: 20628
Posted: #35
Quote Originally Posted by GSW123:

Niners could come together at home and at least keep this thing interesting. I might even throw like half a unit on the Niners ML if it's like +1000 or something crazy.

 When will you learn that this team is the Titanic right now, and the Captain of the ship is the Skipper of the minnow.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2009
Posts: 306
Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:


You won't like this, and I understand why, but I'm just not that interested in X's and O's when it comes to NFL wagering. 

You know those tip sheets they give out at Vegas sportsbooks? They're filled with stats to "help"you make a decision. Problem is, the books are never going to give away anything to help the player win. They give you those stats because, well, they're pretty much meaningless. ANYONE in the world can access those stats. ANYONE from Augusta, Maine to Kathmandu, Nepal can tell you that the Niners have been a train wreck. You know when I quoted stats and thought they meant something? When I was a child.

I cap the NFL by (at least trying) to stay one step ahead of public perception. It's how I was taught, and quite frankly, I don't believe there is any other way to be successful long-term at this hobby. 

Yes, the Niners are bad. Yes, the Packers are good. And yes, I know this isn't how many of you think capping should be done. 

But I've done well with this hobby by anticipating the future rather than reacting to the past, even if that often means making a wager that the masses view with antipathy.  

I'll take the best number I can get and go from there. If it loses, so be it. This is a hobby, not a job. 

Good luck. 



Great post.
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Jul, 2013
Posts: 14924
Posted: #37
Two things.

1) Effort can only do so much in the face of total incompetence and utter futility. (I'm talking about the Niners, of course)

2) Rodgers wants this game bad, as do the Packers and Capers (because Kap has gotten the better of him so often lately). This is triple revenge against the team that dissed Rodgers in the draft. The Packers will not be flat for this game despite SF's putrid play. They'll be ready to stick a fork in a Niners team that is sinking. 


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 1415
Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by JFen31:


You won't like this, and I understand why, but I'm just not that interested in X's and O's when it comes to NFL wagering. 

You know those tip sheets they give out at Vegas sportsbooks? They're filled with stats to "help"you make a decision. Problem is, the books are never going to give away anything to help the player win. They give you those stats because, well, they're pretty much meaningless. ANYONE in the world can access those stats. ANYONE from Augusta, Maine to Kathmandu, Nepal can tell you that the Niners have been a train wreck. You know when I quoted stats and thought they meant something? When I was a child.

I cap the NFL by (at least trying) to stay one step ahead of public perception. It's how I was taught, and quite frankly, I don't believe there is any other way to be successful long-term at this hobby. 

Yes, the Niners are bad. Yes, the Packers are good. And yes, I know this isn't how many of you think capping should be done. 

But I've done well with this hobby by anticipating the future rather than reacting to the past, even if that often means making a wager that the masses view with antipathy.  

I'll take the best number I can get and go from there. If it loses, so be it. This is a hobby, not a job. 

Good luck. 






 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2013
Posts: 1415
Posted: #39
hit philly large last week   with you on sf   
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2013
Posts: 340
Posted: #40
lmao... there will be no backdoor when the lead will be 4 tds going into the 4th qtr. whoever backs 49ers are retarded.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2012
Posts: 2604
Posted: #41
The other problem for the niners this week is that the Green Bay defense is a lot more exotic than any other defense that they've played so far. Kaepernick isn't gonna be able to outsmart them this week. There's no sense in studying film today, he's just going to have to do his best to pretend to be a good QB going up against the best. 
 
Legend
Participation Meter
Joined: Mar, 2011
Posts: 30870
Posted: #42
I love the concept.....

Ya Gotta bet some turds in the NFL.....


 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 490
Posted: #43
can't believe you aren't adding the bears in a similar scenario buy low/sell high. raiders as road favs pmsl will have a full write up in a new thread.
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Nov, 2009
Posts: 115
Posted: #44
Small explanation on the "Sharps" beside the obvious of the MNF letdown & short week for GB.If the line gets to +9 (and it will) you jump on it,49ers will control ball possession for a large amount of this game with Kap extending plays by running and C Hyde will do the same,did you see what Charles did to them ? Simply a short version of why you take SF to keep it close,maybe even win it outright,but for now +9 would be a gift ! 

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2011
Posts: 12243
Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by paydirtpro:

Small explanation on the "Sharps" beside the obvious of the MNF letdown & short week for GB.If the line gets to +9 (and it will) you jump on it,49ers will control ball possession for a large amount of this game with Kap extending plays by running and C Hyde will do the same,did you see what Charles did to them ? Simply a short version of why you take SF to keep it close,maybe even win it outright,but for now +9 would be a gift ! 

 

Charles barely had 50 yds?

 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 11310
Posted: #46
LOL holy shiit I was actually looking at lines and envisioned a JFEN "now you bang the niners" thead when I saw +9.  Too funny
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Apr, 2010
Posts: 351
Posted: #47
like the pick good luck JFEN 
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2010
Posts: 285
Posted: #48
Will it hit 10???
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 7407
Posted: #49
Leaning SF myself. 

After a disastrous couple of weeks on the road, SF is back home where Week 1 they looked like world beaters over Minnesota. At the time, I think people may have thought that maybe SF isn't dead in the water like was predicted by most, OR Minnesota totally stink. 

A couple weeks later, SF has looked AWFUL after a couple games on the road against two good football teams, Minnesota rebounded to show that they are no pushovers. So where are we? Pretty much back at square one. 

The way Kap played last week, you gotta think that SF will be leaning even more on their power running game, and I have to think that last week was the breaking point in how Kap is being used as I have to think that NOW is the time to maybe go back to some of the read option stuff that made Kap so dangerous his rookie year when he took them to the Super Bowl. 

I don't have stats, but off the top of my head, GB has never been very successful dealing with running QB. Capers schemes just don't account for that X factor whether it's a team establishing a power running game and then sneaking in that QB keeper, or its 3rd and 8 and his players are sitting back for the big INT, leaving the middle of the field wide open for the QB who scrambles once the pocket starts to collapse. 

Unless Cullen Jenkins comes out of retirement(his return from injury mid season and run stopping dominance was the single most underrated thing from the packers magical run to a SB win), I don't trust the Packers to stop a true power running game which the 49ers sport. Granted, if SF turns the ball over and let GB get up big like Pitt and Zona recently did, their power running is moot, but I don't think this game gets out of control like that. 

The Packers in the Rodgers era are an amazing squad and they are almost unbeatable at home, but on the road.....they just don't have that invincibility(who does?). I've seen a ton of GB games in recent history where they are straight rolling teams, but go on the road laying 3 or 6, and it's a struggle to win let alone cover. If SF can run the ball both with their RB's and Kap sneaking in some option along with scrambles....and Kap doesn't fall into Capers traps trying to throw too much downfield, and on defense if they can limit the short catch and runs that their WR turn into big plays with their legs, I think the 49ers can keep this game close. 

I see 9 right now. Gotta think it will trickle up as we get closer to game day. In a perfect world, I would jump all over 11.5, but I doubt it crosses all those key numbers(10-11), but if it's 10.5 by kickoff, I am definitely gonna take a shot with SF. 

Sorry if I'm repeating anything said already in this thread. I'm just responding from the original post and didn't get to read any of the many replies. 
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2011
Posts: 3661
Posted: #50
I'm alot more worried about this inept sf secondary than anything else. I'm biting on this one but with hesitation. If they get blown out here they're likely to be a total dumpster fire soon after
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.