Approach for last 2 weeks on NFL season....

Always a good thread to review this time of year.

Appreciate the bump i always felt the last two weeks was like the first two weeks.  Your pretty much making preseasons bet. More luck than capping involved

@Ppkay

Motivation is such a tough situational angle and I don't 100% stay away but tread lighter.

The only game I sure avoid is in and not needing a win.  

@vanzack

For B, the last week is always divisional matchups, so there is always incentive for the team out of it to spoil a hated division rivals chances of making playoffs.  

I just saw something on B on you tube. 

A team trying to get into playoffs if a loss puts them out playing a team already out, play on the team who is out, something like 60-65% over the years.

That's what I'm sayin'...two years ago.

Better to stay away in most cases a lot of anecdotal examples to support ones argument. Team with something to play for wins they "needed it more"...team with nothing to play for wins "they were motivated". 

Play the teams with most talent needing a win to improve playoff positioning. The last two weeks the crème usually rises. These are not teams looking to secure a playoff spot but rather good teams that are in the dance but need to win to get home field or improve playoff positioning. This week those teams would be KC, Dallas, Niners, Eagles, Browns and maybe the Jaguars, though they need to win. Carolina is a public dog because of their performance last week but the Packers defense is a mess. This has to be a bounce back spot for the Jaguars. 

I personally stay away from the NFL after Christmas for the most part.  Occassionally I see a spot I really, really like in the playoffs, but for the most part, I'm done.  For me, this principle extends to most other sports as well.  I keep detailed records and my profitability consistently disappears during the last 15-20% of a season.  I stop betting the NBA at the end of March and MLB at the end of August.  I also don't touch CFB during bowl season and avoid CBB after Valentine's day.

@vanzack

i find the last week the worst as more teams are locked into position....2nd week out not as bad as there are typically tons of things to play for...seeding, home field, etc...

 A- cap fairly normal...obviously huge who is in/out....is the coach a goner??...who has better qb and coach??

B- always scary....lot of this for this weeks games...

C- they could be fighting for seeding (detroit/sf/phi all playing for 1/2/3 seeds)

D- regular game

I saw this thread today and thought someone hacked my account until I realized that it was from 2 years ago.

@vanzack

 Yes. I moved it up.  Because it had some pertinent thoughts about this time of year. 

@begginerboy

Are you playing all those teams you mentioned? Maybe pair some of them together in teasers? Or ml parlays?

When I was reading this thread, I didn’t realize it was an old thread until someone said the Cardinals record was 10-5 

every week 18 game is TBD as far as game times.  Don't know if this happened last year but kind of interesting

How did you make it past Brady and Brees in post 6?!

There's always a luxury tax on teams that need to get in or secure higher seed position vs teams that are out. 

This week SF-13 at Washington. West coast team on short week traveling to east coast for 1pm start. SF could have a hangover from that embarrassment on MNF after being anointed the SB winner by many (especially on this forum). How do they get up for the lowly Commies?

Eagles -11 vs Cardinals. Cardinals are a live dog, they can score and Philly's defense isn't that good. Eagles struggled to get to the finish line last year against the Giants in Week 18. Big fav, I think they won by 6. Philly has lost 3 of last 4 but still a DD favorite?

@garbagetime

 Teams that need to win in the final two weeks of the regular season to avoid playoff elimination are just 67-101-5 ATS against teams that have already been eliminated.

@vanzack

Me too. But I like it!

For me, MOTO time = Master Of The Obvious. 

Books know the obvious - teams who "need this game" and adjust the lines accordingly toward them.

I also think teams that "have something to play for vs. those that don't" like seeding, etc. play more close to the vest, not wide open Katy Bar the Door. 

I feel the coaches "who need it" play it tighter than normal. OMG - the dreaded "prevent defense." I feel more comfortable with the team that is playing loose and free, rather than a pole up the sphincter.

Best of luck to all!! 

@BallingLikeNE 

 @begginerboy Are you playing all those teams you mentioned? Maybe pair some of them together in teasers? Or ml parlays?

So, why not pair a losing propostion with other obvious proven losing propositions like teasers and parlays! 

Awesome!

@Killer_B 

Ding Ding Ding!!! 

Way too many points with these public teams, IMHO. Love betting against teams who played a really tough game the week before (SF.)

This week SF-13 at Washington. West coast team on short week traveling to east coast for 1pm start. SF could have a hangover from that embarrassment on MNF after being anointed the SB winner by many (especially on this forum). How do they get up for the lowly Commies?

Eagles -11 vs Cardinals. Cardinals are a live dog, they can score and Philly's defense isn't that good. Eagles struggled to get to the finish line last year against the Giants in Week 18. Big fav, I think they won by 6. Philly has lost 3 of last 4 but still a DD favorite?

The Commies are a best bet for me in this situation. Back door cover material if not an outright crazy upset at home +13.

Is it necessary to create new systems at the end of the season, other than weather and starters resting? It's still a game of individual strategies, matchups, fuckups - and our ability to predict the teams' game plan and execution...it's just harder to do that now, for several reasons, mostly not involving future games.

They'll need it if they tailed your night U posts/thread last week!