Approach for last 2 weeks on NFL season....

Just one more food for thought to make your capping session even longer.

a lot of players have incentives that they can hit and I’m sure there’s a history of teams/owners that have shrewdly denied players these incentives by claiming “we need to rest em for the playoffs” or not so blatantly changing entire game plans to be inauspicious about it.

I have a 5yo and a 3yo and work 7 days a week sooooo I have zero time to really dig into any info about current contracts with possible incentives and who/what teams will help those players and which will not

bol all

@YouWish

 Please explain Eagles v Washington late last year, thanks 

[Quote: Originally Posted by philschnaars]Just one more food for thought to make your capping session even longer. a lot of players have incentives that they can hit and I’m sure there’s a history of teams/owners that have shrewdly denied players these incentives by claiming “we need to rest em for the playoffs” or not so blatantly changing entire game plans to be inauspicious about it.   I have a 5yo and a 3yo and work 7 days a week sooooo I have zero time to really dig into any info about current contracts with possible incentives and who/what teams will help those players and which will not   bol all[/Quote]

Good point, Phil.  I'm thinking that's a convo with the owner and the GM, and the GM gets to encourage the HC to give a guy (or three) a much deserved break.  But getting the W has to be primary, so sitting an impact player is a double-edged sword.  But it prolly happens in all pro sports (baseball for sure).

@DB51daBEARS

 As I said I really have no clue who is even in consideration for incentives at the moment and really how much it will impact a game just something to think about is all…

And honestly was more thinking what players have the incentives that will make them play their hearts out same as free agents to be that even though we are told their team doesn’t have anything to play for these players and coaches just have, ya know, their f-ing livelihoods on the line

what difference does it make to you? you've claimed that you make all your money arbitraging during the week, so that game results don't matter that much to you.

I tend to stick to teams locking up top seeds and divisions and home games for the playoffs but that's why i hate how they eliminated the bye for the 2 seed.

I don't like teams that need to win to get in. If they were any good they wouldn't need to win the last game.

Wow.  This thread shows how great covers can be.

THIS IS ME.

I went 2-5 this past week....  And I just feel it creeping in.

My history is good season, terrible last 3 weeks, good playoffs and SB.

I am seriously thinking about very limited action in the coming weeks.

I like this post.

So many bettors use the "they have to win" mantra....  And I am pretty sure having to win - and actually winning - are two different things.

This, in a nutshell - explains it very well.

Yes.  And also coaches and players have FAVORABLE incentives to win games so they reach certain payday milestones.  Also, players looking for a contract etc.

This is obviously much more difficult to predict - but I feel a big part of these meaningless wins.

In the games that don't matter towards playoffs take the underdog.

One of my biggest problems is that I am a data based bettor.  I cut and slice data like you wouldn't believe to come up with edges.  And like any data....  How you cut and slice is what determines your success at predicting outcomes.

That being said....  How does data matter when you have a team, or two teams - that dont care?  It seems to me that all of the data and analytics go out the window when you have motivational factors that outweigh predictive statistics.

Those that are good "gut" cappers really have an edge in the last several weeks IMO.  I am not that guy.

Ah... My troll stalker.

I will answer this seriously, even though you didnt intend it that way.....

I have never claimed that "I make all my money arbitraging during the week".  Never.  I have said that I find if you have multiple sources of income streams you are much more likely to succeed. 

So that means that I do make money during the week, and I also care greatly about results, and I also live bet, and I also HT bet.  All of those things matter greatly to me, and add to what I hope is profitable sports wagering.

There is nothing better than heading in to a game with a no lose situation (in my case, in my software both sides of my screen have green numbers representing the amount of money I can win on BOTH).  I work to get all of my numbers green heading in to a game.  That is not always possible, or achievable.  But even if I cant get them both green, I almost always end up in a situation where I am not giving -105, but getting +150 or something on a team at the regular spread.

Just like any business with multiple income streams - all are important - and I want to get better at the last several weeks of the NFL season by learning from Covers folks.

IMO, no guaranteed contracts mean the players will give generally give good effort every play. At the end of the year, there will be a few exceptions (veterans ready to retire and bad eggs playing bad so they get traded - usually WRs do this).  But everyone else knows every snap will be scrutinized when it come to negotiating the next contract.

I think some teams are so dysfunctional this time of year they do not prepare for their opponent at all.  Or the coach gives up making good gameplans.  

If I did this analytically, I'd look at the age of the roster (more points for younger teams).  And I'd look at the coach to make sure he didn't give up (this is subjective, but you can tell from the press conference if the losses keep bothering them)

@DB51daBEARS

 Actually, you did say if they split they would still be the #1 seed:

"If Green Bay splits last two games, they would tie with Rams and Bucs at 13-4.  3-Way Conference W-L tiebreaker would eliminate Bucs and then Packers and Rams...GB beat LA head-to-head, so GB would be #1 seed."

Guess you forgot about Dallas

When a desperate team is in must win mode to make the playoffs because they should be more motivated... it doesn't mean they always win 

No prob, Kep...but ya gotta read the whole of Post #14.  The whole point of me saying if the Cards beat the Cowboys this Sunday was in response to Vanzack's OP about teams already in the playoffs not trying hard.  Here's what I said early on in Post #14:

Cardinals (10-5) have #5 seed and if they beat Cowboys then DAL will get bumped from #2.

If TBAY beats the Jets and RAMS beat Balty then RAMS move up to #2 and BUCS move up to #3; DAL drops to #4.

So this is a VERY big game for Cowboys.  

Rams and Bucs "control their own destiny" and in Week 18 if Bucs (at home) beat the Panthers again, they get #2 seed (if LA loses @ home to SF).

If Rams win out this week and next (like Bucs) then Rams #2 and Bucs #3 and Cowboys #4...so Dallas really needs a win vs Arizona to keep pace with Rams and Bucs.

*************************

Hey Kep...

If the Cowboys lose Sunday and drop to 11-5 (#14 post) and if the Rams and Bucs both win they'll both be 12-4.  Then if they both win out in Week 18 - like in my scenario - they go to 13-4 and the best the Cowboys can do is 12-5.  So the Cowboys would drop to #4 seed.  Which is why I said the Packers need to keep winning to maintain the 1 game lead and get the #1 seed.  Dallas would not be in the tiebreaker for top seed because they'd be 12-5.  I didn't forget the Cowboys.

I guess you're thinking the Cowboys keep winning along with the Pack, the Rams, and the Bucs.  Sure that's a different tiebreaker scenario.  But I'm writing what could happen if the Cardinals beat the Cowboys this Sunday - for the OP's comment.  

"They have to win" or "they need this" are the worst betting angles I've ever known in my time of wagering. 

Scenario A is a good spot to look at the over. 2 teams out of the playoffs. These teams are mostly shitty, hence being out of the playoffs. The totals are low as these teams suck. People think that the games don't matter to them and this is partially true. What really matters to most of the guys on these teams is to get out of the game unscathed and healthy. The defensive effort here won't be as intense as earlier in the year. What incentive does a guy have to fill the hole and lay the wood? What incentive does a d lineman have to collapse the pocket for 4 quarters?

You could give a counter argument that the guys on the offensive side of the ball would have the same lackadaisical effort in their assignments. But I've found that the mere running of offensive plays(business as usual) by the offensive side will win out vs the D when both teams are just playing out the season. 

There's no pressure on these offenses who've not been good all year, combined with a lack of incentive from the defensive to play with intensity. 

Giants@Bears, Detroit@Seattle, and Panthers@Saints fit the bill this week. Games I'm sure that no one wants to watch. More reason to bet those as the books will have more action on the primo games.

My only take is just because  team is in a must win situation does not mean they will win   So may punters use that angle and get burned  

sure, sure--show us how that's done. you have nothing else to do this week--except buggering underaged filipino boys.

Does anyone factor the following years draft order into their play? Eagles give away the last game of the year last year. Jags seem to be playing for first overall

Sounds smart, how about post your plays to help the punters out?

Hey Sac,

Don't know if you're replying in general, or to what I posted, but either way...I didn't say I'm betting on anything based on pressure or desperation lol.

I was replying to Vanzack's OP about the scenario of Team A in the playoffs and not trying so hard as a result.  I just pointed out that pretty much all the teams in the NFC that are already in can't coast yet because the 4 Division Leaders can all flip if they don't keep winning.  And Arizona still has a shot to win the West, so the top 5 teams going to the NFC dance still don't know what table they're sitting at.

Cheers and BOLTA