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Chiefs/Colts Thoughts

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Posted: #26

 [/Quote]Ive been at this for 25 years..and have seen it plenty of times as in a 100 times...chalk it up in your experience book bro...bol to ya[/Quote]

Wizer? I always respected you and your plays no doubt but I'm in this gambling crap over ten plus years longer than you (Never know it by this years $hit record of mine posted) But regardless I am just saying and sticking to it and if the colts win they deserve to march on and be in the super bowl with their accomplishments especially what they have been doing on the road or not their past ten games But for you to think it's a cakewalk and a sure book it thing I beg to differ and really believe it remains to be seen and if it becomes a reality kudos to you.peace_5

 
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Posted: #27

Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:

Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

People.  The Chiefs are a complete outlier this season as is Mahomes.  Anyone that stands in front of this train will get ran over.  All the numbers suggest the Chiefs will at the very least make it to the Superbowl.  To think the Colts of all teams will walk into Arrowhead, the team that got shut out against a Cody Kessler led Jags team......wow just wow.....clueless beyond reproach.
You just won the clueless award.  Indy +5.5 is the play..and will walk into Arrowhead.. and walk out into the AFC Championship game...mark it down

 

I'm not even going to respond to your post above skewing the stats to your favor by being selective.  Not to mention comparing the garbage Colts defense to the Ravens.....an_roll_laugh

This will be very hilarious when Luck and the Colts get dominated by the Chiefs defense and Mahomes hangs 37 on that cover 2 soft defense.

Colts backers are clueless here, really, really clueless.

 
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Posted: #28

Coming down the stretch and including last week, the 4 wild card teams are on a combined 30-4 run. Over the same stretch of games, this weekends home teams are 23-11. 

I think a case can be made for all 4 dogs this weekend. I might take the points in all 4.

Gamble for entertainment, invest for wealth!
 
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Posted: #29

Quote Originally Posted by oldasskorean:

Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

People.  The Chiefs are a complete outlier this season as is Mahomes.  Anyone that stands in front of this train will get ran over.  All the numbers suggest the Chiefs will at the very least make it to the Superbowl.  To think the Colts of all teams will walk into Arrowhead, the team that got shut out against a Cody Kessler led Jags team......wow just wow.....clueless beyond reproach.
show us your scanned copy of the ticket where you bet your life saving on chiefs to win AFC

Yup let me put my life savings on the Chiefs when Mahomes could get a concussion in the first qtr.  Any more tips genius?  Would you like to be my accountant?  I need your sage financial reasoning.

 
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Posted: #30
The difference with your Seattle Seahawks with russel comparison is they had one of the best defenses if not the Best defense which gave the offense full of playmakers one of the top RBs a good QB more opportunities on offense..KC is only good on offense..the weakest unit in the playoffs is the KC defense..

And I hear a lot of people saying Colts were on the road consecutive times..so what.. same time zones Tennessee Houston KC no biggie..Colts don’t look like a tired team they are playing loose because of the fact they will be stacked next year and they made it this far the pressure is more on KC performing @home and Mahomes living up to expectations..colts seem to be having fun”..(it’s like playing with House money) I would also like to add..colts have a high powered offense as well..Andrew Lucks arm is healthy, also don’t underestimate the coaching..The only difference is they have the defense to go with it..Don’t forget about the run game for the colts they could play more run and eat the clock keeping Mahomes off the field..


Mahomes 1st in NFL passing tds 50
Luck (2nd) in NFL passing tds 39
Hence the O/U

Achilles-good reads
Winning isn’t everything.. It’s the Only thing.
 
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Posted: #31
Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

show us your scanned copy of the ticket where you bet your life saving on chiefs to win AFC

Yup let me put my life savings on the Chiefs when Mahomes could get a concussion in the first qtr.  Any more tips genius?  Would you like to be my accountant?  I need your sage financial reasoning.

. Lol you idiot

 
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Posted: #32
One thing for certain and i could maybe see it happen. if Colts go down 1 or 2 scores i'll be taking the live bet each time spread and ML. Andrew Luck is capable of 4th quarter comebacks. should be great value on Colts when trailing. weve almost had some good comebacks on wildcard week. i think this week were gonna have a game where the team that goes down early and trails for most of the game comes back to win the game. could be the Colts. could be the Chargers. heck maybe even Philly too. noticed i left out Cowboys. Dak isnt comeback material. just a matter of figuring which one, or maybe two because if the football lords blessed with us with more than that then it would be pretty surprising but i doubt it.

a 4 team ML dog parlay would pay out 122:1.... fyi... 
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #33
Great discussion here.

I ask myself this and it’s a valid point that has to carry weight here. 

Which qb do you trust late in the game to come from behind and more importantly, which DEFENSE can make that last stop? With this being the NFL and with Mahomes and Luck, one has to think this will be a very close game so with both QBs being top 3 guys in the league, which defense steps up? It’s clear Indy has the better defense but as we’ve seen, all it takes is one stop and we’ve seen it in the past where the lesser of the defenses in a big game steps up. Imo aside from Brees, Luck and Mahomes are the ticket going forward. But in a game like this, it’s gonna be the little things that most likely decide this game. Field position, penalties, clock management and yes, a few stops here and there that can tilt the needle one way over the other. Again.....this is gonna be one h@ll of a game tomorrow. 
 
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Posted: #34

Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

Everything about the Colts has been overrated.  Both their defense and offense.  On the other end the KC defense, especially at home, has been underrated.   If you conclude the Texans were a joke of a contender than you also need to conclude the Colts are the same.  Both teams played the easiest schedule this season and both were able to string together a 9-10 game winning streak.  LOL.     Now you look at the KC Chiefs who out of all the playoff teams had the toughest schedule and yet STILL put up historic offensive numbers.  At the same time, their defense had to face the best of the best and got shredded, mainly on the road.  In fact, every single major offensive team the Chiefs faced, they faced on the road.  Is it any wonder why their defensive rankings are so terrible?   Berry seems to be out now so that will be a blow especially in the running game, but I still believe the Chiefs defense will contain this overrated Colts offense to under 25 pts.      Then we have to look at Luck and the Colts and how they play outdoors, on grass, in the cold.  Simply put they are terrible.  It was no surprise that they got shut out to the garbage Jags 6-0.  Luck was horrid and so was TY Hilton.   You add in the intensity of Arrowhead, especially this season?  No shot in heck of coming out of this game unscathed is Luck. That OL is built for inside dome, quiet crowd.  Andy will be pressured big time on Saturday and unlike Mahomes, Andy does not handle pressure very well.   Simply put after looking into this game I am going all-in on the Chiefs covering 6 and team total over 31.  Colts fake defense hasn't played any of the top offenses all season and when they faced the Pats they got crushed.   On the flip side, the Chiefs have routinely faced the top defenses at any given point in the season and Mahomes and the offense was always unstoppable.   This game as many believe will be a close shootout will be anything but.  Easiest game to cap.  Indy has literally zero advantage here.  The only advantage they had was their superior OL but on the road against the superior DL of the Chiefs, it will be a wash at the most.   And Watkins if he truly plays the entire game will be a MAJOR factor.  People think Hunt's absence caused the offense to sputter near the end of the season but Watkins was a much bigger effect in the passing game.  With Watkins, Colts will get ate up by Mahomes all day long.   The Colts 2 deep safeties will get burned by either Watkins of Hill.  But 100% will Kelce will do damage.   I honestly cannot believe anyone would put money on the Colts.  How can someone cap this game, look at all the data and actually put money on the Colts?   Seriously recency bias is strong here for the public. Meanwhile, the Colts are as fake as the Texans.  They are mirrored.  Now imagine those same fake Texans going on the road into Arrowhead against the second-best offense OF ALL TIME!!  What is wrong with you Colts backers?  I just don't get it...I really don't...
The Colts D has been the best Defence in the NFL the last 10 weeks of the season, ff.

 
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Posted: #35

Sometime stats of regular season does not matter much in playoff. People may say Indy had a weak schedule but this is NFL, even if you win against 10 bad teams that record is still not a joke. My observance is that when Chiefs fall behind they're done, when colts fall behind they fight hard.

 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by justliketoplay:

Ive been at this for 25 years..and have seen it plenty of times as in a 100 times...chalk it up in your experience book bro...bol to ya

Wizer? I always respected you and your plays no doubt but I'm in this gambling crap over ten plus years longer than you (Never know it by this years $hit record of mine posted) But regardless I am just saying and sticking to it and if the colts win they deserve to march on and be in the super bowl with their accomplishments especially what they have been doing on the road or not their past ten games But for you to think it's a cakewalk and a sure book it thing I beg to differ and really believe it remains to be seen and if it becomes a reality kudos to you.peace_5


Wow..35 years..you must be old like me.....hey bro, if it doesn't become a reality so be it..that's my opinion...but il still have my double diamond dime teaser to back it up for insurance purposes...I need +5.5..and +12.5 on the Colts...if they dont win str8 up...oh well.  But for me to come in here and say its a cake walk never came from me..it will be a hard fought game with imo Colts coming out on top..wheather  it be the points or str8 up..
...bol

Enjoy the game
 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

You just won the clueless award.  Indy +5.5 is the play..and will walk into Arrowhead.. and walk out into the AFC Championship game...mark it down

 

I'm not even going to respond to your post above skewing the stats to your favor by being selective.  Not to mention comparing the garbage Colts defense to the Ravens.....an_roll_laugh

This will be very hilarious when Luck and the Colts get dominated by the Chiefs defense and Mahomes hangs 37 on that cover 2 soft defense.

Colts backers are clueless here, really, really clueless.


It will be very hilarious if they dont.. being selective in my favor?..not at all...this is what actually happened in the recent form during the 4 game stretch of the 2 teams in question " the raw data"..on a more detailed note. You most likely wont understand it. but that's what separates the gamblers from the true sports wagering investors 

Indy L4 Rd  Final  OPR
Texans      21-7     22
Tenn          30-10   21
Texans      24-21   23
Jack           0-6      17.5
               75-44       21 ( true point diifferential and OPR ( opponents power rating at time of game.

75-44=31 + 12( we like to add 3pts ea rd game for Indy because they were at a 3pt disadvatage for ea rd gm. This = 43 divide by 4 games = +10.75. Indy on ave during their 4 game rd series is beating their opposition by 10.75 pure points per game. or beating thier AOPR of 21 by 10.75 pppg for a 31.75 road rating. Their average offense is scoring  23 pppg and defense is giving up an ave of 10pppg. Yes, Indy has played 2 2nd string QB's during this 4 gm rd series....big deal, KC has played 3 sh*t arse QB's during their 4 game home stretch  Indys PA defense on a pure points range is better than Baltys ...its about pure points given up by the defense.not what happens between the 20's just for your Info. 

KC        Final   OPR 
Oakland    21-3   14
LAC         21-30   25
Balt          27-23   24
Arizona    20-14   13
                 89-71   19

89-71 = 18 - 12( we like to subtract 3 HFA points for ea gm(12) because KC was at a 3pt advantage ea home game = 6 div by 4 gms = 1.5 pppg KC is beating the likes of the 4 teams mentioned by 1.5 pppg. Add that to they caliber of competition or AOPR of 19 and you now have 20.5. Now we add the 3pts for HFA which is 23.5.KC's Home rating

Indys Road Rating 31.5
KC's Home Rating  23.5

Indy has a +8 road rating over KC...about a TD. 

Indy Off/Def   23-9
KC   Off /Def 21-20  ( These #'s are from all Turnovers etc and the                                    noise from the final score are removed).. 

Final score should be higher..because there will be turnovers both teams are in the + Turnover ratio.

During KC's last 4 game stretch. The defense is giving up 19 pppg and  using a high / low method..and giving up 24 pppg during their last 3. KC's run D blows.worse in the league..so your 37 points scored by KC will be overtaken by Indys 42 that will they will put on KC. 

34-31 Indy...mark it down...if its the other way around..I still win @ +5.5 and +12.5 teaser..il be posting Sat

 
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Posted: #38

 

Hyperbole or Does he really believe it ?

 

 
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Posted: #39
Wizer: (Quote) Wow..35 years..you must be old like me.....hey bro, if it doesn't become a reality so be it..that's my opinion...but il still have my double diamond dime teaser to back it up for insurance purposes...I need +5.5..and +12.5 on the Colts...if they dont win str8 up...oh well.  But for me to come in here and say its a cake walk never came from me..it will be a hard fought game with imo Colts coming out on top..wheather  it be the points or str8 up..
...bol

Your Score Prediction (34-31) above verifies that Wizer Thanks!

Maybe I will consider the over and just lay off a side.

Enjoy the game
Likewise....Stay Young
 
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Posted: #40

Two factors that are holding everyone from pulling the trigger

 

Mahommes first NFL playoff game

KC seem to have not been able to win a playoff game in ages 

 

I haven't pulled the trigger but I'm leaning on Chiefs by 7-10 points

 
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Posted: #41

Here's a thought....

 

Due to the very poor KC defense,   Will the KC offense be able to keep up with Luck  and the rest of the Colts ?

 
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Posted: #42

Quote Originally Posted by deepstate:

Here's a thought....   Due to the very poor KC defense,   Will the KC offense be able to keep up with Luck  and the rest of the Colts ?

 

You mean will one of the greatest offenses in all of NFL history keep up with a Colts team that played no defenses all season, need the warm indoor fake grass environment and scored 0 points outdoors in Jacksonville???

 

an_roll_laughan_roll_laugh

 

 

 
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Posted: #43
You're stuck in the past Zebra. The only loss of Dallas since week 10 was the Colts and I suspect you just may see them barely taking down the Chiefs and showing they are a super serious contender. One of the best losses Dallas could've had, I think that actually helps the team keep their confidence in check and focus because it showed them they can lose badly at a time when they were winning everything.

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by YanniKos:

Two factors that are holding everyone from pulling the trigger

 

Mahommes first NFL playoff game

KC seem to have not been able to win a playoff game in ages 

 

I haven't pulled the trigger but I'm leaning on Chiefs by 7-10 points


I don’t think Mahomes will be the reason why KC loses, if they lose. As stated, I think it would be their defense or run game. They will need to get stops and they’ll need to control the clock imo
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

 

You mean will one of the greatest offenses in all of NFL history keep up with a Colts team that played no defenses all season, need the warm indoor fake grass environment and scored 0 points outdoors in Jacksonville???

 

an_roll_laughan_roll_laugh

 

 


So ONE game defines Indy then? EVERY single team in the league has had bad games. The goose egg in Jacksonville doesn’t weigh as heavily for me as it does for some. 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by ff99l1:

The Colts D has been the best Defence in the NFL the last 10 weeks of the season, ff.


Look at see who they played. ONE team in the top 15 DVOA offensively and it was the awful Giants.

Also, we would appreciate it if you learned how to spell "DEFENSE."
 
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Posted: #47
Wizer knows whats up 
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #48

Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Quote Originally Posted by tchamps:

  You mean will one of the greatest offenses in all of NFL history keep up with a Colts team that played no defenses all season, need the warm indoor fake grass environment and scored 0 points outdoors in Jacksonville???      
So ONE game defines Indy then? EVERY single team in the league has had bad games. The goose egg in Jacksonville doesn’t weigh as heavily for me as it does for some.

 

Nope KC offense has had zero bad games.  That is the beast people are looking over.  SO the garbage Colts who played no defenses all year and played no offenses as well laid down 0 against Cody Kessler and that doesn't count?  But the Chiefs who have never gotten stopped once on offense this season against the best will get stopped by the Colts?

 

I just don't see any logic to this.  The Texans also were hot.  They won 9 out of 10 games.  Both Texans and Colts are 100% fake teams.  KC is the one team in the league that has been battle-tested all season long.

 
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Posted: #49

[Quote: Originally Posted by Achilles1629]...what about that run game though since Hunt has been out? Can it take the next step in the playoffs where the run games are magnified? We’ll see.....

 

^^^ If you can't run the ball in the playoffs how good is home field for KC. Andy reid loves screens for his RBS and where has that been since the loss of HUNT? KC has had one RB, D. Williams,go for 50yds on the ground... his best. He does have good catching abilities that helped his total scrimmage yards, but isnt a 100yd type rusher. Now KC wins other ways besides run run, however the ability to run well opens play action passing.  Indy combo of good run + good passing keeps a Kc defense guessing all game.  KC will most likely be the team that falls behind first and with their awesome offense might not be a problem. But when they need a short 3rd down conversion and/or goal line run play they will struggle. Patrick will most likely be their best run option, but does he take care of the ball? He will make more mistakes than Luck cuz once again no run game means more Patrick. The lack of a balanced offense will curse KC. 

 
 
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Posted: #50

Chiefs for me but I also think that high o/u hits..I can see the first half scoring up in the high 30's and fizz out a lil in the 2nd but still getting that 57.. chiefs 1st half is a slam dunk for me...nice read and great football minds...good luck fellas whatever you choose..

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