I agree that this Arizona/Green Bay matchup will be lot closer. But I'm not taking the Packers just because of a few favorable injury situations popping up. The Packers are inconsistent on offense and defense while the Cards are one of the most consistent squads in the league.
The Pack defense is good up front with Matthews and Peppers and Mike Neal, but the back end is not very good at all. 23rd in the league in yards per completion at 11.2. to give some perspective, Chicago is tied with them, Miami and the Giants just underneath them. Have you seen those 3 teams try to stop the pass?
the packers defense strength is on 3rd down stops. in the top ten in that category. unfortunately the Cards offense is second in the league in 3rd down conversions, better than Washington. Cards are 47% on 3rd, 50% the last 3 weeks. Skins were around 40 percent.
Washington is an upstart squad from the NFC East which is probably the worst division in football, their coach doesn't have much playoff experience, neither did their QB, and their secondary sucks. They have fast receivers but they are very feast or famine and not very physical at all. They are deep shot guys and then they had Reed underneath. Not surprised they lost that game at all.
The Pack couldn't beat out a rebuilding Minnesota team with a 2nd yr QB for the NFC North. Arizona won the best division in football. They have a very seasoned and smart coach and the same can be said for their QB. They have great receivers that are fast AND physical. They have a total shutdown corner and their Defense actually lost guys in the off season as well and still played well, these injuries won't derail them. Suuma you remember you thought losing those guys + the D coordinator would mess up the team at the start of the year? It never happened. I dunno if it will here either.
Beating the crap out of the Skins is one thing. Beating the winner of the best division in the league at their place with a week of rest is much more difficult. GB still hasn't improved their awful 3rd down offense. They'd want to figure out how to do that if they plan on beating that Cards Defense.
David Johnson has been an absolute beast for Arizona. Starks has come on and played well for GB. I see both teams trying to run the ball more this week to wear down the defenses, keep the other QB on the bench, and not get stuck in 3rd and long. Also, even though their red zone TD rate is statistically very good, I have seen the Cards struggle in that spot in some games I watched.
So I think the Under 49.5 is a nice play. I think the Cards will win, but I already loaded up on them when they played GB at the end of the regular season, I could see that blowout coming (sorry for bragging but I did). There's less value here as I do think this will be closer. I just don't think they'll win the game and in the playoffs I don't play on teams to keep it close. Cards might win it all this year, they have a perfect combination of excellent veteran players like Peterson, Fitz and Palmer and young stars like John Brown, David Johnson and Deon Bucannon.
Calais Campbell will dominate anyone the Pack put in there on the line. He's not a guy you want to go against in your first game back. Watch some film on him. He's awesome. I wouldn't put much faith in the Pack stopping the Cards getting penetration up front just cuz those guys are healthy enough to play. They still have him and Freeney, Peterson, Bucannon, and a good system in place.
With the two teams already playing each other, a bit of a layoff for the Cards, and each team wanting to keep the ball out of the other teams star QB's hands, GB's struggles on 3rd down, and Arizona having a few red zone hiccups I think we get a bit of a slugfest, in addition to both teams having good defensive fronts. I do agree the GB D is underrated. So I might make a small play on the Under. The Packers getting the O line guys back and the D injuries hopefully won't derail that.
GB Defense is #1 in the league in 4th quarter points per game, allowing 3 per game. 0 in the last 3 games combined! Arizona is 9th, but 4th in the last 3 games.Both have good 1st quarter Defenses as well. Starting and finishing games without allowing TDs is good for the under.
Actually thinking about that stat on the Packers D, allowing 3 per game in the 4th and less than 3 in the 1st quarters, it kinda does make me think there is value in +7. I don't see value in -7 hoping for a repeat blowout, just like I didn't see it for Minnesota vs Seattle. These teams are way more evenly matched then the earlier score but GB has been a money burner this year, Arizona has been a money maker. I think I'll stick to the Under.
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