Divisional round & Packers@Cardinals write-up

63-53

The most underrated unit in the playoffs might be the Packers defense. Everybody is talking about how well the Cardinals play on D, but let's just compare these two units by numbers. Before that I am telling you: the Packers' defense has played a tougher schedule than the Cardinals in almost every category. These categories are all about efficiency, so total yards, amount of attempts and TOP have nothing to do with it.

PPG:
ARI 19.3 (#12)
GB 18.9 (#11)

NYPPA:
ARI 6.1 (#9)
GB 6.1 (#9)

Adj. sack rate:
ARI 5.8% (#24)
GB 6.7% (#12)

DVOA Pass
ARI -9.4% (#4)
GB -6.8% (#6)

DVOA Run
ARI -24.4% (#2)
GB -7.9% (#19)

3rd down DVOA
ARI -29.9% (#2)
GB -12.3% (#10)

RZ%
ARI 55.32% (#14)
GB 57.14% (#16)

If you compare these two units, you will notice that there isn't a huge discrepancy. If you consider the schedule (Cards played the worst scoring offense on avg.), these units are equal with the Packers being slightly better against the pass. This was just to demonstrate how good the Packers defense was this year.

Today I have watched the GB/ARI game from week 16 and made some notes. I watched the first three quarters because the game was over at 38-8. One thing I know for sure: it will be a completely different game this time. The only reason the Cardinals crushed the Packers were both backup-Tackles LT Don Barclay and RT Josh Walker. Bryan Bulaga started at RT but he was already hurt pre-game and took off at the beginning of the 2nd half. Of the 7 sacks during three quarters, 4 sacks were DIRECTLY on Don Barclay along with one strip-sack for a fumble return TD. One sack was on LG Josh Sitton because he wanted to help out Barclay and Sitton didn't pick up the blitz. The other two sacks were a strip sack for a fumble return TD directly on Josh Walker and the 7th occured because Walker couldn't handle the edge rush and Rodgers was forced to scramble into the sack by an inside rush. So all of the 7 sacks had to do with the backup-Tackles who WON'T be playing this Saturday. Before Rodger's INT in the end zone, he felt pressure through his LT he had to get rid of the ball.

During he first quarter when both teams had equal situations to deal with, there was no difference between these two. The GB defense played very well. The Cardinals offense didn't have a lot of work to do, they just needed to execute off great field position. Cardinals had 7 drives starting in their own territory. The output was 1 FG and 1 TD. On 5 drives, the Packers forced a three and out. Without the bad Tackle play by GB, they would have had more successful drives, better field position, more TOP which would have let to a close game. The Cardinals' blitzes won't be as effective as the last time because Bulaga and Bakthiari are much better in picking them up. Okafor and Redding are two key losses to the Cardinals defense and Rucker isn't practicing fully. Kareem Martin, Markus Golden and Jason Babin will now play. Babin was picked up off the street this week while Martin and Golden are in their 2nd and first years. This is a massive downgrade, especially for the depth/rotation and the audible adjustments Rodgers is going to make. Babin can't get all the scheming into his mind, no possibility. The Packers are going to move the ball much better than the last time. They won't have a lot of successful drives but it will be enough to get better field position for their defense which would be huge in this game. Last week this GB defense held the red-hot Skins offense with the hottest TE in the league and two stud receivers to 5.2 NYPPA. Cardinals don't have the kind of TE to create such a big game 9/120/1. They will come more through the run game but I don't see them putting a lot of drives together with bad field position. Plus there is a chance, Sam Shields will be able to play.

The Cardinals are a great team, but 7 points is simply too much here. They played 5 playoff teams this season and would have covered -7 just once in the game described above. If the Bengals would have been without Whitworth and Smith it would have been a rape. Having both starting Tackles is a different story to every team in the league. Packers will look to run more TE sets to take some tight coverage of the Cardinals' secondary away. Lacy and Starks will get some looks to put Rodgers more comfortable. It will just be a completely different game, a close game and I believe there is a chance the Packers are going to pull the upset.

A trend to deal with:

-Teams in a revenge spot from the regular season are 58-36 ATS (62%) in the playoffs

-Underdogs of 7+ are 21-9 ATS (70%) in this situation

-If the opp had a bye week, these underdogs are 12-5 ATS and 8-9 SU


Green Bay Packers +7 -105 (big)

New England Patriots -5 -103


More to come through the weekend. BOL to all

I agree packers will keep this close with a chance to win late nobody is giving them a chance.  Rodgers seemed to have found his groove in the 2nd half of the washington game. The offensive line did a great job of protecting him and they were able to get some big runs from lacy.Also cant discount the injury in the defensive backfield for arizona with the honey badger. I see this game coming down to the final possession with a gb win.

Also baktari and shields returned to practice today.

Suuma, the Pack are a 'good look' to play a Twin tease (7.5pts) 

the best to you always, have a prosperous weekend

I leanerd heavy AZ to start,  but after noting the injury to Matheiu, and now Okafor and Redding, there goes about 30-40% of the Cards defensive output. 

Pack Big Big.. already got +7.5 in Vegas on Monday

Nice write-up Summa. I agree with you that the Packers D is underrated. Also we all think the Cardinals D are sack masters after that last game vs Packers and that is not the case they are actually in bottom half of league.  But this is the same Packers team that lost to my Bears on Turkey day and Brett Farve night at LAMBO also the Lions too at LAMBO. That just doesnt happen with this team the past 5 years. So I don't think one game against a Redskins team that hadnt beat a team with a winning record all year should give any hope to the Packers chances in AZ. Redskins are trash and Cardinals are rested.  Peterson will Lock down Cobb and JJ is too slow and Adams wont play. Who are they going to throw the ball to?  A lot of people talk about Mathiue and rightfully so he is a dynamic playmaker. But i think Buchannon is a great linebacker safety hybrid. So when packer spread it out he can cover almost anybody too so they can have 5 Dbs on feild with him in base coverage. Anyways i feel this game is lay the chalk or a no play. If you bet packers +7 your best bet is a backdoor push honestly. Just though i would put my 2 cents in. Best of Luck.

Why people keep saying Ari -7 is too much ? Ari blowout GB already

Which is huge!

BOL

Edelman is so important for this offense because of his quickness. He said he is full go and that's important. He opens several pages in the playbooks of Josh McDaniels.

Well written as always.

That's why I believe we will see some more TE targets this week and some more screen passes to Lacy and Starks. In general, you are completely right but the Packers will have both Tackles this time while the Cardinals lost two of their front seven. Changing directions. That allows Rodgers to seek for more looks. And like I said I also don't believe they will have MUCH success. Just enough to keep it close

I am with you on GB.  This system is also:https://groups.google.com/forum/m/#!topic/sportsdatabase/vQjirLrnpEU

With you on the cheeseheads buddy! Hope they win also for my outright! Rodgers need to be the MVP Rodgers to beat that birdies out!

I'm on both as well suuma. You can check my thread where i post some good trends which support Pats and Packs

I dont think I agree,  for GB to win or cover this game they dont just need a very good game from Rodgers they need him to be spectacular, ari has much more of a complete team and more ways to beat you, screens, deepball, fades on the ouside to their tall wrs and all the ways they use Fitzgerald for running etc, GB has no receivers they lost Adams so too much pressure in hostile environment plus ari has good corners, Matthieu absence does hurt quite a bit but they have more than enough to dominate the game. Only adv for GB is the QB (I know its a huge one) but not enough to even keep it close, I dont guide myself with lots of stats I lean more on what I saw during the games.

Another post ? with your 300 a day comments a day couldn't everyone have just figured out your plays if anyone cared ,  good thing it's the internet and your not wasting paper and pencils ,

Suuma, you make good points but I look at GB with caution. I almost took them a few weeks ago but took the over and lost. My biggest concern with GB is their WR's. With Arizona, you will not get a half dozen blown coverages like the Skins did last week.

GB receivers are dead last in overall speed in the NFL and AZ covers the pass very well. The only hope for GB is that Rodgers gets another game of excellent protection from his O-line to give his turtles a chance to get open. I just don't think that happens.

Your getting carried away with these long winded write ups that a are a bunch of gobbly person

,Do you ever watch how these games are won and lost ? most times it's a collection of spontaneous plays or events and has nothing to do with all your boring crap

Packers recevers are horrible. Cardinals are a very deep team, defense will still kill Rodgers. Repeat again in Arizona, Cardinals by 21+ . Also, huge coaching mismatch, Arians is the best. ....

GL summa...great info. ..