All Forums | NFL Betting

Divisional round & Packers@Cardinals write-up

...
Participants:
Search model icon
Views: 9647
Posts: 87
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #51
Quote Originally Posted by fadeORdie:

Should I be worried that our picks are the same for this division round? 


Be happy!
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Agree on both plays, man.

 I would just like Rodgers to show more faith in his line. I know it's tough when you're getting hammered week in and week out, but he got in his groove 2nd Q on in the Skins game, but that first quarter.....he was bailing out in a way I never saw him play before. And missing some throws that he would have made with his eyes closed the last few years. 

I'm hoping he is over that and plays like an MVP should. 

Agree with you 100% on the Packers defense being crazy underrated. Sometimes Capers doesn't have the horses, but when he does, I LOVE watching his defenses attack. I smell a Palmer pick 6 early in this game! 


I think it's about confidence. If you take away Veldheer, Massie and Fitzgerald, Palmer would look like a crying baby in the pocket. If you took 8 sacks in one game, it's hard to gain confidence back quickly. If he gets a good first drive with some good completions, it should be a boost for the rest of the game.

Glyde 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by MRxKrazz:

I can agreed on certain things, I do not think ARI will get 9 sacks again, and GB's D is pretty good, but the most important factor here is, can GB's WR get any seperation so Arron dont need to look at his 3rd and 4th reads before throwing, ARI's D is going to live and die by their style of play, if GB can not connect on those 15+ yards throws, the game might have same results. On the flip side, I think GB have the pieces to get pressure on Palmer, but do they have enough to stop those 3 WRs and David Johnson and Ellington who can now spell D. Johnson when he need a break. 7 points is a lot to give, and only reason I won't commit to ARI right now is their injuries on the Defensive side of the ball, the signing of Babin have me scratching my head.........

Good luck this week none the less, I also have switched my lean from KC to NE, and will dig deeper into this matchup after clicking the submit button.



What you have described was exactly why I was leaning ARI initially. Just after digging more into the game I came up with GB big. We know it all starts in the trenches. Look at the Cleveland Browns. The only reason they were live in a few games was their elite OL. They probably had the worst receiving corps of all teams but they scored a lot of points early in the season because of the combination of Josh McCown and this offensive line. Before the L2 reg season games, the Packers were averaging 25 PPG! And I expect to see some more TE targets this time to exploit some mismatches in the LB corps of ARI.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #54
Quote Originally Posted by PhillyBrown:

I agree that this Arizona/Green Bay matchup will be lot closer. But I'm not taking the Packers just because of a few favorable injury situations popping up. The Packers are inconsistent on offense and defense while the Cards are one of the most consistent squads in the league.

The Pack defense is good up front with Matthews and Peppers and Mike Neal, but the back end is not very good at all. 23rd in the league in yards per completion at 11.2. to give some perspective, Chicago is tied with them, Miami and the Giants just underneath them. Have you seen those 3 teams try to stop the pass?

the packers defense strength is on 3rd down stops. in the top ten in that category. unfortunately the Cards offense is second in the league in 3rd down conversions, better than Washington. Cards are 47% on 3rd, 50% the last 3 weeks. Skins were around 40 percent.

Washington is an upstart squad from the NFC East which is probably the worst division in football, their coach doesn't have much playoff experience, neither did their QB, and their secondary sucks. They have fast receivers but they are very feast or famine and not very physical at all. They are deep shot guys and then they had Reed underneath. Not surprised they lost that game at all.

The Pack couldn't beat out a rebuilding Minnesota team with a 2nd yr QB for the NFC North. Arizona won the best division in football. They have a very seasoned and smart coach and the same can be said for their QB. They have great receivers that are fast AND physical. They have a total shutdown corner and their Defense actually lost guys in the off season as well and still played well, these injuries won't derail them. Suuma you remember you thought losing those guys + the D coordinator would mess up the team at the start of the year? It never happened. I dunno if it will here either.

Beating the crap out of the Skins is one thing. Beating the winner of the best division in the league at their place with a week of rest is much more difficult. GB still hasn't improved their awful 3rd down offense. They'd want to figure out how to do that if they plan on beating that Cards Defense.

David Johnson has been an absolute beast for Arizona. Starks has come on and played well for GB. I see both teams trying to run the ball more this week to wear down the defenses, keep the other QB on the bench, and not get stuck in 3rd and long. Also, even though their red zone TD rate is statistically very good, I have seen the Cards struggle in that spot in some games I watched.

So I think the Under 49.5 is a nice play. I think the Cards will win, but I already loaded up on them when they played GB at the end of the regular season, I could see that blowout coming (sorry for bragging but I did). There's less value here as I do think this will be closer. I just don't think they'll win the game and in the playoffs I don't play on teams to keep it close. Cards might win it all this year, they have a perfect combination of excellent veteran players like Peterson, Fitz and Palmer and young stars like John Brown, David Johnson and Deon Bucannon.

Calais Campbell will dominate anyone the Pack put in there on the line. He's not a guy you want to go against in your first game back. Watch some film on him. He's awesome. I wouldn't put much faith in the Pack stopping the Cards getting penetration up front just cuz those guys are healthy enough to play. They still have him and Freeney, Peterson, Bucannon, and a good system in place.

With the two teams already playing each other, a bit of a layoff for the Cards, and each team wanting to keep the ball out of the other teams star QB's hands, GB's struggles on 3rd down, and Arizona having a few red zone hiccups I think we get a bit of a slugfest, in addition to both teams having good defensive fronts. I do agree the GB D is underrated. So I might make a small play on the Under. The Packers getting the O line guys back and the D injuries hopefully won't derail that.

GB Defense is #1 in the league in 4th quarter points per game, allowing 3 per game. 0 in the last 3 games combined! Arizona is 9th, but 4th in the last 3 games.Both have good 1st quarter Defenses as well. Starting and finishing games without allowing TDs is good for the under.

Actually thinking about that stat on the Packers D, allowing 3 per game in the 4th and less than 3 in the 1st quarters, it kinda does make me think there is value in +7. I don't see value in -7 hoping for a repeat blowout, just like I didn't see it for Minnesota vs Seattle. These teams are way more evenly matched then the earlier score but GB has been a money burner this year, Arizona has been a money maker. I think I'll stick to the Under.


Wow great stuff Philly. I would love to give a detailed response but I have to leave now for the rest of the day. I will answer tomorrow because there are a few little things I would want to discuss.



To all the others: Great comments
 
Captain
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2005
Posts: 7407
Posted: #55
Awesome fuc*ing thread, Suuma! 

Bol, my friend. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1183
Posted: #56
Packers offense is hard to watch. They matched up well against a suspect skins D. None of their wrs get any separation. To me everybody is overreacting to them beating a lousy Skins team. Can't run on Cards. Cards win big
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 6
Posted: #57
Why suffer trying to figuring out such a complicated game with a -7 line ?
Destined 23% To Push

OVER 41.5 POINTS ON THE PATRIOTS GAME
SUCH EASY $$$

BEST OF LUCK THIS WEEKEND

BM
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2015
Posts: 6
Posted: #58
Not want to go deep on this game but i rememberr six things

Packers Lost by 30 to arizona
cardinals Rested 2 weeks
Cards play At Home
packers suffered to beat THE RAIDERS
PACKERS SUFFERED TO BEAT THE LIONS WITH AMIRACLE HAIL MARY
BEFORE THAT. PACKERS. LOST TO THE SHITTY LIONS AT LAMBAEU !!!!
OHH. PACKERS BEAT THE SHITTY REDSKINS !!!! WOOOWWW

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #59
Some trend I've found, take it for what it's worth:

With wind speed of more than 12 mph, Tom Brady and the Pats are 9-0 ATS at home when not more than -7 favorites. 12-3 ATS overall with the three losses being as high favorites. 14-1 SU. Only loss vs. Ravens 13-28.

Saturday: 15 mph.
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #60
Last 7 games I checked:

51-23 vs CHI
34-31 vs DEN
13-28 vs. BAL
28-0 vs MIA
45-10 vs. DEN
45-3 vs. NYJ
59-0 vs. TEN

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2013
Posts: 2151
Posted: #61
Brady has also never lost a home playoff game on Saturday (7-0) and has won his last 5 overall (14-3 overall career at home in the playoffs)
 
Prospect
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2012
Posts: 50
Posted: #62
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:



Cannot argue with that, thanks for posting. GB don't have an elite receiving corps, that's true. But if Rodgers has 1 second more in the pocket or better options to move around, it will change the game. In the early season, they pummeled Seahawks and KC at one point. Just for instance.


I don't think this is really a valid point about Seahawks and KC. the Seahawks and KC were not very good teams when GB played them. Played them Weeks 2 and 3 Seahawks started 2-4 KC 1-5
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 5046
Posted: #63
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Some trend I've found, take it for what it's worth:

With wind speed of more than 12 mph, Tom Brady and the Pats are 9-0 ATS at home when not more than -7 favorites. 12-3 ATS overall with the three losses being as high favorites. 14-1 SU. Only loss vs. Ravens 13-28.

Saturday: 15 mph.



Yea all the Tomato can games  all the stinky blowout games in two of them Blout ran for over 300 yards and  had 7 Td's

And this is a team result not a Brady result you make blanket stupid statements that mean nothing .

One of these blowout win Brady didn't even throw a TD pass  he was 13 for 25  0 TD'S

11 on offense 11 on defense special teams

 it's not Boxing it's a team sport sometime the losing team's QB outplays  the winning teams QB .

Just more horse manure from you
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 5046
Posted: #64
This  is a Tom Brady Stat separate from a Team result,   this is his performance and history in the post season  game when playing a decent team this is relevant  , 



KC 2nd in Pass Defense   KC 4th in sacks

Brady Post Season Stats when facing a Top 5 pass Defense  5 TD's 7 INT's QBR  76.2


Brady Post Season Stats when facing a Team finishing in the Top 5 in both Pass Defense and Sacks  2 TD 5 INT's QBR 61.1


These are Brady's post season individual stats separated from a team result   These are his Stats when not facing a Tomato Can these are relevant stats to this particular game from Brady's past .

They are Brady's stats you don't like them Tough Noogies , think whatever you want , but don't blame me i wasn't on the field on those days .
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 5046
Posted: #65
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Last 7 games I checked:

51-23 vs CHI
34-31 vs DEN
13-28 vs. BAL
28-0 vs MIA
45-10 vs. DEN
45-3 vs. NYJ
59-0 vs. TEN




Boy i didn't even see this your talking about regular season games not even playoff games   what a waste of time
 
All-Star
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2010
Posts: 13130
Posted: #66
thanks for info...like both
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2010
Posts: 1016
Posted: #67
Summa,

Great writeup and good luck.

If people think these kind of threads are valuable they are crazy or can't read.  If nothing else it highlights how certain things are perceived differently.  Thanks for taking the time.

I began my thinking before the Washington game early last week thinking Green Bay was done and could not beat an inferior Wash team or any team on the road in the playoffs.  By game time I had placed bet on GB and was looking to back them in running.  It was in watching that game closely that I saw some of the same key points your hitting on.

First, the Green Bay defense is a championship defense.  People want to focus on stats and they just aren't sexy with this team.  It's only when you watch a few games you realize how clever they are.  They morph not only to the opponent but to the game situation.  They adapt to what the opponent is trying to do and they don't care about giving up yards, they care about stops, creating opportunities, holding when they need to hold and about winning the game.  And they never give up.  They hand their hands full in that Arizona game and eventually it got out of hand with the offense giving up TD's on turnovers but despite the offense totally ineffective in that game people forget that the defense picked off Palmer before the half, giving the offense the ball on the Arz 15 and had Rodgers not thrown a terrible INT the score going into halftime could have easily been 10-7.  Despite another terrible offensive effort vs. Minnesota the defense fought hard and kept them in the game.  Despite another horrible start to the game in Wash by the offense and the possibility of the game being 21-0 by the 2nd quarter, the defense held and kept it to 11-0 and then in the 2nd half nearly shut them down completely.  That is what I mean by championship defense.

Second, the trenches are what really matter.  People want to focus on the flashy and trendy offensive stars.  Oh GB has been horrible, their receivers can't get open, they don't have a running game...etc.  The trenches are what matter.  I think Arizona is a good team and they have a good offensive line but where the mismatch is in this one is the GB offensive vs. the Arizona defense.  Even before Bakhitiari being upgraded to probable now and the Arizona defensive injuries consider this.   The Packers have now had 3 weeks and 2.5 games to deal with the o line injuries and although I wouldn't put to much weight in the Washington game it was clear that they are improving.  And more importantly to your point of how badly they were taken advantage of in the first game with Arizona, consider this point.  Arizona had the fewest sacks of any of the 12 playoff teams at 36, they got 9 in the GB game.  Without this game they had 27 sacks in 15 regular season games which would have ranked them near the bottom of the league.  Add GB getting their LT back this week and the Arizona injuries and I think it is a big mismatch to GB's favor.

I began this week and shortly after the Washington game thinking, don't believe this, the problems aren't fixed, Arizona is going to pound them again, etc, etc.  I have completely turned around and think that GB +7 is by far the best value bet on the board.  And it is all about the trenches here and the overall better defense (thanks for those stats, they backed up what I was already thinking regarding the GB defense being under valued).

And I know this is a great oversimplification but I think there is a some wisdom and value in it.  The single best predictor stat wise of which NFL teams made it to the playoffs this year (passing/rushing offense and defense, turnovers, sacks) was defensive sacks (total, not the adj. sack rate).  Only one team in the top 10 in sacks did not make the playoffs (Detroit).  Every other stat category had at least 3 teams in ranked in the top 10 which did not make the playoffs.

And last week of the rankings of sacks for the games played, the only team that had more sacks and didn't win the game was Minnesota.  And we saw how that required a shanked 27 yard FG to happen.

Thanks for letting me ramble in your thread.  I agreed and good luck this weekend.


 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Dec, 2008
Posts: 2594
Posted: #68
Lines dead on at 7. I won't be playing it. Bol. 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: May, 2009
Posts: 1234
Posted: #69
Suma, great write up as always, thank you for your time and analysis.       I see the same people as last year writing off Green Bay when they were 8 point dogs at Seattle and we know how that worked out.      I'm on same plays as you Suma.  Good luck to us and everyone else who joins us.            
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2003
Posts: 2180
Posted: #70
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:




Boy i didn't even see this your talking about regular season games not even playoff games   what a waste of time

Brady threw for 4 TDs against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl . I'm pretty sure the Seahawks had the number 1 defense last year . 

 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Oct, 2008
Posts: 1951
Posted: #71
GL this weekend, summa.
 
Banned
Participation Meter
Joined: Sep, 2006
Posts: 5046
Posted: #72
Quote Originally Posted by gilligansisland:


Brady threw for 4 TDs against the Seahawks in the Super Bowl . I'm pretty sure the Seahawks had the number 1 defense last year . 



Yea against a defense that was scheduled for the operating room the Stiff also threw a red zone pick and a 3rd quarter pick and got bailed out by a idiotic Seattle coach

Brady would have been in real exclusive company of losing 3 straight Super Bowls and sucking in all of them
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2003
Posts: 2180
Posted: #73
Quote Originally Posted by MYSTICRICH:



Yea against a defense that was scheduled for the operating room the Stiff also threw a red zone pick and a 3rd quarter pick and got bailed out by a idiotic Seattle coach

Brady would have been in real exclusive company of losing 3 straight Super Bowls and sucking in all of them


Instead he's in exclusive company for winning , keep on trying , loser .

Excuses excuses excuses 



 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Jan, 2003
Posts: 2180
Posted: #74
Suma , great thread ! I didn't mean to disrupt it .   
 
 
Veteran
Participation Meter
Joined: Feb, 2010
Posts: 4455
Posted: #75
Saturday:

Patriots -5 -105
Chiefs TT Under 18.5 -108
Packers +7 -105 (big)
6pt-teaser: Patriots +1 / Steelers +15.5 -110 (small)


Bold prediction: Manning and the Broncos win a FG festival and we'll get Brady vs. Manning next week.

Very bold prediction: Packers will host the Seahawks for the NFC Champ. game.

Let's see if I can get these right

If the Pats lose straight up, I will be the first one to say congrats. But I just cannot see it happening. We will see a lot of TB's and Josh McDaniels' turbo no-huddle offense which would be the best recipe against the KC pass rush. Houston and Hali are still questionable when I get it right. The Chiefs will struggle to run against this front seven and the high wind speed will make the life of AS difficult with a banged up Maclin who couldn't even walk until yesterday. Mitch Morse still being out is also bad for the Chiefs. Rainy, windy, loud home crowd is a terrible combination for a backup-center on the road. I see Pats winning 27-9.

BOL
All Forums | NFL Betting
About Us
Contact Us
Careers
Our Team
Brand
Testimonials
Betting Guides
Sportsbook Reviews
Sports Betting News
Podcasts
Responsible Gaming
Sports Betting
US Betting Sites
Canada Betting Sites
Canada Casinos
Best Betting Apps
Contests
Streak Survivor
King of Covers
Ultimate Race
Office Pools
The Covers community has
618,670
lifetime members worldwide
Covers 25 Years Logo Established in 1995,
Covers is the world
leader in sports
betting information.
Site Map Help Privacy Terms of Service youtube logo facebook logo twitter logo instagram logo linkedin logo google news logo
Covers is verified safe by: Evalon Logo GPWA Logo GDPR Logo GeoTrust Logo Evalon Logo
Copyright © 1995 - 2024 CS Media Limited All Rights Reserved.

If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.