DK NFL Week 1 Matchup: Falcons vs Bears

Question

My 1st two writeups had me going against the trend. You just don't fade defending Super Bowl Champs in week 1, especially not at home, but I did and had a nice win. Now, for this game and writeup I've decided this time not to go against the trend. I am admittedly a little bit more nervous about that...

The trend is: the loser of the Super Bowl performs poorly in week 1. Since 2000, they are 5-12 SU, 2-15 ATS. They are also 2-10 SUATS on the road. After watching the Patriots getting their asss handed to them by the Chiefs last night and perform like how a Super Bowl loser would perform in week 1. It makes me wonder if the roles have been reversed this year. That the Super Bowl winner trend actually applies to the Falcons, not the Patriots. The Falcons really should have won that Super Bowl but inexperience and Dan Quinn's inability to trust his running back down the stretch cost him the trophy twice already to that same team.

But let's not overthink it. Last night's game won't have any bearing on this one and let's not let trends influence our thinking. It's all about the matchups and I will once again focus on that. The Bears look like they will be overmatched in this contest or, is it? Is that what it appears to be on the surface....? Let's try to make light of the situation and see what we can find..

i haven't really delved into the matchups for this game yet other than knowing that Bears lost their main WR, Cameron Meredith for the season and that Glennon will be the starting QB, but since the line dropped elsewhere I felt like my book would soon drop too so I had to grab it and so far i was right it's 6.5 now.

The Pick: Bears +7 with a dash of ML +250 on the side

to be continued..

Digitalkarma · Answer

My 1st two writeups had me going against the trend. You just don't fade defending Super Bowl Champs in week 1, especially not at home, but I did and had a nice win. Now, for this game and writeup I've decided this time not to go against the trend. I am admittedly a little bit more nervous about that...

The trend is: the loser of the Super Bowl performs poorly in week 1. Since 2000, they are 5-12 SU, 2-15 ATS. They are also 2-10 SUATS on the road. After watching the Patriots getting their asss handed to them by the Chiefs last night and perform like how a Super Bowl loser would perform in week 1. It makes me wonder if the roles have been reversed this year. That the Super Bowl winner trend actually applies to the Falcons, not the Patriots. The Falcons really should have won that Super Bowl but inexperience and Dan Quinn's inability to trust his running back down the stretch cost him the trophy twice already to that same team.

But let's not overthink it. Last night's game won't have any bearing on this one and let's not let trends influence our thinking. It's all about the matchups and I will once again focus on that. The Bears look like they will be overmatched in this contest or, is it? Is that what it appears to be on the surface....? Let's try to make light of the situation and see what we can find..

i haven't really delved into the matchups for this game yet other than knowing that Bears lost their main WR, Cameron Meredith for the season and that Glennon will be the starting QB, but since the line dropped elsewhere I felt like my book would soon drop too so I had to grab it and so far i was right it's 6.5 now.

The Pick: Bears +7 with a dash of ML +250 on the side

to be continued..

PRman_Hawaii · Answer

totally agree!!!

nopressure1k · Answer

I&#x27;m a falcons fan so I&#x27;m biased but tbh I would be more concerned if Trubisky were starting bc we usually let young QBs look great; but w Glennon starting I&#x27;m not too worried, this is the best falcons roster I&#x27;ve ever seen especially on defense. Best front 4 we&#x27;ve ever had with Beasley, Jarrett, Poe, and Clayborn. Add in the rookie DE Tak Mckinley and not to even mention our LBs, Deion Jones and Campbell. Trufant is back and healthy, Keanu Neal is 100%. The falcons will focus on shutting down their RB and Glennon will not put up enough pts to keep up. Idk if they cover but the falcons are not losing week 1 to the Bears period.

itz4204me · Answer

agreed nopressurefalcons roll!good luck this digital.

Digitalkarma · Answer

1.) How can the Bears possibly defend the Falcons myriad of offensive weapons while sustaining drives themselves with a QB that has only played the backup role for most of his career? The Bears offense has less than half the firepower of the Falcons arsenal. It's like cannons going against little toy guns.

The Bears don't need to get into a shootout here. It's all about time of possession and ball control. Objective #1: Keep the Falcons offense off the field for as long as possible. How will the Bears be able to do that?

It starts up front....

Bears Offensive Line

The Packers shockingly released guard Josh Sitton at the beginning of last season. The Bears promptly signed him and as a result the Bears had one of the better O-lines in 2016. They only gave up 28 sacks which is an improvement over the last few years. They are still vulnerable at the edge and are a little bit weak on the tackle spots where Leno and Massie gave up a combined 73 QB pressures.The same starting five return which can be seen as a good thing. Continuity is key but they can certainly improve and they will need to because the Falcons defensive front last season transformed from a tentative unit into a more aggressive Seattle-like defense heading into the playoffs. While the Falcons lost pass rush specialist Dwight Freeney, they have added Dontari Poe to bulk up the run defense which was suspect at times because they will have to deal with one of the top backs from last year....

Jordan Howard

Howard will need to have a big game this Sunday if only to take the pressure off of Glennon. Remains to be seen how much improved the Falcons run defense will be. I think Howard will have some degree of success rushing against the Falcons and a Bears cover will largely depend on Howard's performance in getting 1st down completions and milking the clock. The Bears will need to improve their red zone offense. Howard only had 6 TD's last season.. that needs to get better. To have over 1300 yards and only 6 TD's where he should get at least 10 TDs.

to be continued...

Digitalkarma · Answer

Falcons Red-Zone defenseThe Falcons Red Zone defense was horrible all last season. You could say it was one of the reasons they lost the Super Bowl. James White killed the Falcons in the red zone! Do i expect it to improve this season? Of course it will. Do i expect it to be tops in the league? No. They&#x27;ll get Trufant and Clayborne back which will help, as well as adding Poe. I dont expect the Bears to take full advantage since they had trouble scoring in the red. All i am hoping for the Bears to do is score at least twice out of 4 or 5 trips there. Its up to Howard to get a score. The Falcons gave up 15 Rushing TDs last year. They are also particularly weak in covering tight ends. Zach Miller could be a factor for the Bears. The Falcons defense isnt exactly a shutdown defense and will give up yards.Dome Team on Grass SurfaceLets face it. The Bears are going to have a tall order trying to stop Devonta Freeman and the Falcons offense. The Bears werent particularly good at run defense last year. Plus all the recievers that Matt Ryan has at his disposal have returned. The Bears secondary has been completely remade with the signings of Prince Amaukamura, Quintin Demps and Marcus Coopers. Not sure how much of an upgrade the Bears secondary will be but i dont see them shutting down the Falcons recievers more than half the time. The only thing that could literally slow this Falcons offense down is the grass in Soldier Field. Dome teams usually have trouble playing on these type of fields especially the ones in Soldier Field where the grass is not in the greatest of conditions. The Falcons have had their fair share of bad games on grass.The OCKyle Shanahan was the mastermind behind a resurging Falcons offense but left to be the head coach of the 49ers. He&#x27;s been replaced by Steve Sarkisian. This is a downgrade worth a point. Sarkisian hasnt really done anything worth a darn since 2014, his only real good year as a college coach. He had 4 average years in Washington but hasnt stayed around in one place for too long since. I feel that the Falcons are going to miss Kyle&#x27;s playcalling as they try to adjust with a new OC.

BIGDTITLE · Answer

agreed...if this was a falcons win the line would have opened at -9 or higher but its sitting around -6 so I feel the bears will win this game outright.

Digitalkarma · Answer

i don&#x27;t know about winning it. but the trend is too hard to ignore so it&#x27;s worth a try on the ML even if i feel the Bears have no shot. i do like their chances to cover though. i&#x27;ll have a final thought

Digitalkarma · Answer

Final thought:I think this Bears team is being disrespected and overlooked at home, especially on the defensive side of the ball where the Bears beat out the Falcons last season in almost every category except for run defense. Offensively, the Bears are nowhere near the same level as the Falcons when it comes to the QB and WR positions but it doesnt need to be. The Bears have just as good an O-line and running game as the Falcons do that will keep Mike Glennon upright and Jordan Howard being a factor in this game. I also feel the Bears recieving corp is slightly underrated and being slept on as well. Kevin White was supposed to be the Bears other top reciever next to Alshon Jeffery back then but could never stay healthy.. he has a chance to prove he is the Bears new #1 reciever now. Kendall Wright and Markus Wheaton have shown flashes that they are capable of producing when called upon but Wheaton wont be available for week 1. That leaves Deonte Thompson who has made some plays for the Bears before in a limited recieving role. Still I&#x27;ll take the better defense on the field getting a touchdown at home with an offense that will be serviceable in keeping Matt Ryan on the sidelines. I am still not sold on this Falcons defense yet, well not this early in the season yet anyway. The Super Bowl hangover continues. Falcons escape with a win, barely. But if they lose i wouldnt be shocked at allFinal score: Falcons - 24 Bears - 20

Digitalkarma · Answer

Maaaan, close but no cigar. Would have been sweet if ML hitted.. good effort by the Bears to stay within 7.

DK NFL Week 1 Matchup: Falcons vs Bears

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