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DK Super Bowl 52 Matchup: Eagles vs Patriots

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Posted: #26
 
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Posted: #27
Looking forward to hearing your analysis DBW. While its true that Pat's defense looked weak at times and had a pretty weak schedule which would make their defense better than they seem down the stretch. I am also not too thrilled about the Eagles defense at times. They are lights out at home but on the road they are not quite the same team defensively. The Eagles also had a pretty light schedule too, but one thing i like about Eagles D is their ability to create turnovers something that the Pats havent quite done at the same rate. That's something the Eagles have going for them in this match but as you know Brady is so smart he rarely turns the ball over so it might not matter as much. 

Both these teams are mirror images of each other, they are about equal  but the only thing that sets these teams apart is experience. 


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Posted: #28
Part I

here we are again with another Patriot's Super Bowl(might as well rename it the Patriots Bowl). another collective sigh and groan. My initial reaction after the NFC Title game was that the Eagles are going to get killed, really get killed this time by Brady.. SB rematches havent been particularly eventful from my memory. Also, who really cares to see Brady vs Foles? Seems like a big QB mismatch to me! We were treated to much better QB duels... Brady vs Matty Ice, Brady vs Wilson, Brady vs Eli.. hell even Brady vs McNabb is better than this...

Maybe part of me was overreacting to the Vikings loss to go along with my disgust and disdain of seeing the Patriots back in it again. Eagles vs Patriots isnt the matchup i wanted to see but that's what the football gods decided to grace us with and they are not in the business of pleasing anyone. Dont they have a sense of humor alright?

Now that over a week has past and i have finally come to grips with the outcome,  I can start to objectively look at the Super Bowl now and try to break it down. Had a bit of time these past few days to gather my thoughts and listen in on what others had to say about this game. By this time, there should be enough information to go around. Opinions on the Eagles have been favorable in the early going and that the bets have been skewed in their favor. 

there are alot of trends that would seem to help point in the Eagle's way the most obvious being the Patriots past Super Bowls being so close. 6 out of their last 7 being decided by 4 pts or less which would be a cover in this game if this trend continues with the current spread at 4.5. There also seems to be several jinxes for Brady to contend with(Madden curse, possible NFL MVP curse, Passing Yards leader curse etc) its usually one curse or the other but all the curses seem to be hitting Brady all at once. It seems too easy to pick the Eagles, it really does. Does that mean the Eagles will win Super Bowl 52? it would be the lazy way to cap this game without being thorough.

Stay tuned for Part II..
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Posted: #29
Part II

The first thing you want to ask yourself when approaching this game is: First of all, can the Eagles pass rush get to Tom Brady? That is half of the battle. Secondly and most importantly of all can the Eagles secondary stop the Patriots passing attack? 

My answer is...no, not quite. 

The Patriot's O-line have been hit and miss protecting Brady this season but we have seen before how Brady is able to overcome pass rushes by getting the ball out quicker. The Eagles have the defensive front to give Brady fits but  i just dont see the Eagles pass defense being as lights out as that Jaguars defense was. Dont get me wrong though the Eagles retooled secondary unit is much improved from a season ago and they are much more physical and opportunistic but i think they will still have problems guarding the likes of Gronk and Chris Hogan with their physicality.. they will also have to worry about Amendola in the slot and a speedy Cooks over the top plus account for the trio of Pat's pass catching backs in the open flat.

The Eagles defense still allowed Case Keenum to move the Vikings offense down the field in the 1st half, when the game was still very much on the line. Keenum was throwing 15 of 23 for at least 150 yds and a couple of deep balls in the 1st half. If it werent for 2 turnovers including the one in the redzone which led to Eagle scores, that game would have been more like 17-14 or 17-10 at the half and not 24-7.. 

But the Eagles defense deserves some credit in the playoffs but they are being overvalued after that blowout win in my opinion. Especially now that they will have to go on the road where their defense certainly hasnt travelled well with them. At home they allowed only 13.4 pts in the regular season(2nd best in league only to Minnesota) and the number dips to an impressive 12.4 pts overall if you factor in those 2 home playoff games. Compare those numbers to the 23.5 pts allowed on the road in 8 games. That is a 10 pt difference and it is something that shouldnt be ignored.. that huge discrepancy of a number should be reserved for inconsistent bottom-ranked defenses like the 49ers, Colts and Browns. Only the Bucs scoring defense home/road split is worse than the Eagles with a 10.7 pt difference. Forget that we are playing on neutral field here, the Eagles are still going on the road and they are bound to give up 23 pts or more to the Patriots. I think the Eagles defense has had the luxury of their offense all season to keep them comfortable and not put pressure on them with the game on the line. Last time they were put in this position they were resilient against the Falcons but that was Matty Ice. They are going against the greatest. The next logical question you'll have to ask yourself is... 

Can the Eagles offense with Nick Foles keep up with Brady and have success against this bend but dont break Pats defense?

Part III to be continued...

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Posted: #30
[Quote: Originally Posted by gambling-devil]

I had that feeling when NE beat ATL in the last SuperBowl.
[/QuoteAmen]
 
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Posted: #31
Part III

Can the Eagles offense with Nick Foles keep up with Brady and have success against this bend-but-dont break Pats defense?

By the numbers this is a more productive and talented Eagles offense overall than the one the Patriots defense faced the other week in the AFC Championship. Eagles have more depth at skilled positions. Zach Ertz is putting up bigger numbers than Marcedes Lewis did in his first 5 years. Legarette Blount may not be the same workhorse out of the backfield like he was last year but he makes up for it in experience, couple that with an explosive runner in Jay Ajayi and the Eagles have a formidable rushing attack nearly on par with Leonard Fournette and the Jags. Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith lead the Eagles respectable recieving corp and have the most recieving TDs of any recieving group this year. You could say the Jaguars one-dimensional offense lost the ballgame for them against the Pats due to their inconsistent passing game which made them play conservatively. The Patriots defense tightened up against the run and forced Bortles to try to beat them through the air...and it worked. I dont know if it is due to the lack of talent in the WR position or if Bortles is really that bad of a QB. i'm going to say its the former. You wont get that with Nick Foles in an offense that likes to be aggressive and take chances. They just happen to be the best 4th down team in the NFL. Foles is surrounded by a much better cast of playmakers and has shown flashes of competent starter QB play in the past, that is something Bortles still struggles with. 

The Eagles offense had some hiccups during the last couple regular season games but since then in the playoffs picked up where they left off as if Wentz never left. The offense is once again efficient and well-balanced. They are running the ball well, making smart throws, and mostly playing mistake-free football. The Eagles have been one of the best 1st down(ranked 4th) and 3rd down(ranked 8th) conversion teams all season. Last week against the Vikings was the perfect example. The Eagles kept moving the chains and controlling the time of possession like they had been doing all year. This will be important as the Eagles need to keep Brady off the field as much as possible. Did I mention before this Eagles offense plays aggressively? With little time left in the 2nd quarter instead of kneeling to end the half, they drive down the field in 30 sec and manage to get another 3 pts. This is not the 1st time they played this way, they will go for it on 4th and goal if they have to. Remember the Rams game? Carson Wentz tore his ACL but stayed in the game to get his last TD before going out.

As a result of their due diligence, The Eagles have the best redzone offense in the NFL converting at a 65.5% clip this season(at least 57% with Foles). The Eagles will need all the points they can get against the Patriots. The reason being that the Patriots have one of the best redzone defenses in the league ranked 4th and allow opponents to convert at least 43% of the time. although i must add that the Patriots defense did allow the Jags and Titans to each convert 2 out of 2 in the redzone during the playoffs and 7 of 14 in their last 5 games(3 of 5 were against Steelers offense who have been mediocre this season in the redzone). This may be of some concern going in for the Pats defense. 


 I believe the Eagles offense will have some degree of success against the Patriots. We have already established that both these teams can put points on the board. Between the two, the Patriots have the better scoring offense overall as far as points and yards per average but the Eagles are very close behind. What will ultimately decide this contest is defense. The better defense usually always wins.

Part IV to be continued...
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Posted: #32
Quote Originally Posted by Digitalkarma:

Part III

Can the Eagles offense with Nick Foles keep up with Brady and have success against this bend-but-dont break Pats defense?

By the numbers this is a more productive and talented Eagles offense overall than the one the Patriots defense faced the other week in the AFC Championship. Eagles have more depth at skilled positions. Zach Ertz is putting up bigger numbers than Marcedes Lewis did in his first 5 years. Legarette Blount may not be the same workhorse out of the backfield like he was last year but he makes up for it in experience, couple that with an explosive runner in Jay Ajayi and the Eagles have a formidable rushing attack nearly on par with Leonard Fournette and the Jags. Alshon Jeffery, Nelson Agholor and Torrey Smith lead the Eagles respectable recieving corp and have the most recieving TDs of any recieving group this year. You could say the Jaguars one-dimensional offense lost the ballgame for them against the Pats due to their inconsistent passing game which made them play conservatively. The Patriots defense tightened up against the run and forced Bortles to try to beat them through the air...and it worked. I dont know if it is due to the lack of talent in the WR position or if Bortles is really that bad of a QB. i'm going to say its the former. You wont get that with Nick Foles in an offense that likes to be aggressive and take chances. They just happen to be the best 4th down team in the NFL. Foles is surrounded by a much better cast of playmakers and has shown flashes of competent starter QB play in the past, that is something Bortles still struggles with. 


meant to say, it's the latter.

should have proofread it a little more. 
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Posted: #33
 DigitalKarma  solid work


Banging since 1983
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by EastsideBangers:

 DigitalKarma  solid work



thanks eastside 
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Posted: #35
Digital.....Thanks for all the time you put into this.....It doesn't seem that just saying thank you is enough.  But it's all I got.
 
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Posted: #36
Part IV: Defense Wins Championships

The team with the best scoring defense have won 11 of the past 18 Super Bowls, take it back further to 1990 and the defenses have won 19 of the past 28. Not saying that offense doesn't win championships too. You need a decent offense that can put up points to justify having a good defense. Balance is usually key here. Most champions have the qualities of both attributes. On that note, it seems the Philadelphia Eagles come into this year's Super Bowl with the better defense. However, in the rare case where a team is good on one side of the ball but not the other, then that team with a good defense gets beat is usually because a.) their offense is not as good compared to their opponent; in the redzone or otherwise, or b.) their defense may be good overall but not in the redzone. It's usually a mixture of both. 

We can look at the 2014 defending champion Seahawks as an example. That Seahawks team were just as stingy defensively as the one that beat the Broncos in the Super Bowl a season before. the difference? their redzone defense/offense got worse. they played a Patriots team that wasnt on their level defensively but they were a much better offense and performed better in the redzone on both sides of the ball. Its only fitting that the Seahawks lost that game in a situation where they were weak at: defending the redzone. 

We can also look at the 2012 Ravens, a defense that was aging and getting slower but had a bend but don't break philosophy. They were a middle of the pack defense. The Raven's redzone defense was 2nd best in the league while the 49ers redzone defense was ranked 28th. The Ravens also had a slightly better overall offense overall too compared to the gimmicky Pistol offense the Niner's ran. Ravens offense also had the advantage in the redzone, they were ranked 11th while the 49ers ranked 21st. I don't need to tell you how that outcome turned out..

Not saying this situation applies to the Eagles or even the Patriots(their scoring defense is on par with the Eagles) for that matter as they are both well-balanced teams on both sides of the ball. I think the redzone will be important factor in who wins this game. In that case, the advantage goes to the Patriots as they own the 4th best redzone defense overall while the Eagles are ranked 20th. This is especially not something that the Eagles want to be in with the game on the line and to be on the receiving end of another Brady comeback. The Titans and Jaguars had way better redzone defenses and Brady still found a way to score on the Jags. As I mentioned earlier, the Eagles are a more balanced team even if their defense isn't as fearsome as the Jaguars, but they make up for it with a better offense and may be better equipped to handle the Patriots

The Patriots and Eagles aren't the typical dominating defenses that you come to expect despite being top 5 in scoring defense. The Patriots are an anomoly. how can a defense that ranks 4th in scoring give up the 29th most yards through the ground and air by a defense? History has shown that teams that give up alot of yards seldomly do well in the Super Bowl, although there are some exceptions as long as their offense is good enough like the 2009 Saints but the 2017 Patriots have way better scoring defense than that Saints team. Then we have an Eagles defense that is not necessarily dominant against the pass or in the redzone and gives up 23.5 pts average on the road but less than 13 pts at home. The Eagles don't have the mark of a consistent defense but their offense scores so many points that it puts their defense in a good position to hold onto leads. The Eagles remind me of the 2015 Panthers, a team that overwhelmed their opponents offensively and let their defense force turnovers while holding onto big leads. The Patriots are similar in that respect, minus the turnover part. These two teams couldn't be more similar offensively and defensively but in different ways if that makes any sense..

part V to be continued.
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

Digital.....Thanks for all the time you put into this.....It doesn't seem that just saying thank you is enough.  But it's all I got.

 a thank you is more than enough for me and i don't get many of those so i very much appreciate the kind words. GL  in the super bowl Cooler  
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Posted: #38
Part V: The X's and O's

I'm not too big into detailed stats and analytics but i do pay attention to some numbers that are concrete and understandable to me and not something too obscure but let's talk about matchups. Which team can exploit the matchups better? 

The Patriots give up lots of yardage all around so the Eagles might not have a problem marching down the field into New England territory but like i mentioned previously their redzone defense will be their trump card here. The Patriots have particularly been awful against the pass(mainly the first 6 games) but that has improved considerably over the 2nd half of the season. Then again they haven't faced many quality QB's as they had earlier. 

The rush defense is still an area of weakness for the Pats that the Eagles could exploit. The Eagles rush offense ranks 6th in rush attempts, 4th in rushing 1st downs and an befuddling 24th in rushing TDs, while the Patriots are 5th in rushing attempts against, 20th in rushing 1st downs and 1st in rushing TDs allowed. Not many have tried to run on this Patriots team which is shocking considering they give up 4.7 yards per average(which would rank 31st worst) but they are stingy in allowing any scores on the ground.

Where the Patriots are especially more vulnerable against are versus pass catching backs allowing the 2nd most recieving yards. The Eagles don't really have a consistent catcher out of the backfield but that's not to say Ajayi or Clement aren't up to the task. What it comes down to is can the Eagles score on the ground? So far, they seem to haven't taken advantage of it. How does Legarrette Blount go from 18 TDs a season ago to just only 2 rush TDs this year? His average is usually around 5. I think the Eagles will commit to the run, to run down the clock and sustain some long drives but I feel like they won't be able to take advantage of this Patriot defense when it matters most. The Pats have allowed only 2 rushing TDs to opponents since their BYE week in week 9

part V to be continued..
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by pdouble:

an_worship

 

Great writeup as usual ! 

Gl this week brother 


GL Pdub. thank you bruh!  
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Posted: #40
DK, I am enjoying reading this analysis even though much of it goes right over my head.

Regarding the PHL offense:  FO rates the PHL rushing offense #17 and the NE rushing defense #30.  I think PHL will have solid results on third and short, sustaining drives, avoid having to settle for FGA's and keeping the NE offense off the field and the PHL defense well-rested.
 
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Posted: #41

Great analysis Digital Karma. 

I don't think pats d is all that great and they do let teams march up on them. The key here is pats offense is usually good enough to sustain drives and most importantly not turn the ball over. This leads to bad field position for the opponents. 

Stopping them from finishing drives with TDs will be key. If they can't they'll be in trouble. The rpo worries me and not sure how they'll handle that. 

One thing I need to check is how good foles is with mid range to deep throws. If they focus on ertz and make him throw outside, is he good enough to accurately hit Smith or Jeffrey downfield? Timing is factor so I'm hoping they haven't got it down yet. 

 

 
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Posted: #42
i agree DBW. the Eagles shouldnt have too much difficulty moving the ball but i also think the Pats can move the ball on the Eagles just as easily. the redzone is the important factor to me and will decide how successful the Eagles will be in this game. A battle between the #1 redzone offense vs the #4 redzone defense, should be interesting.. This will be the Patriots toughest opponent no doubt. 

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Posted: #43

I think I'm the only who thinks this game will be decided by the best place kicker! 

 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by aznluder:

Great analysis Digital Karma. 

I don't think pats d is all that great and they do let teams march up on them. The key here is pats offense is usually good enough to sustain drives and most importantly not turn the ball over. This leads to bad field position for the opponents. 

Stopping them from finishing drives with TDs will be key. If they can't they'll be in trouble. The rpo worries me and not sure how they'll handle that. 

One thing I need to check is how good foles is with mid range to deep throws. If they focus on ertz and make him throw outside, is he good enough to accurately hit Smith or Jeffrey downfield? Timing is factor so I'm hoping they haven't got it down yet. 

 


Foles can still make those throws. He did it 4 years ago when he was having a pro bowl year dont see why he cant do them now even if he has regressed a bit since then. He did it in the NFC Championship game threw some nice passes to Jeffery and Smith. I would definitely not underestimate Foles

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Posted: #45

Right anything can happen. Yeah he tore up vikes deep but he did struggle deep against falcon. Granted it was a windy game. He's been on and off on accuracy throughout his career.  Maybe something finally clicked this year. 

 
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Posted: #46
Part V continued..

The Eagles are super solid against the run, but are vulnerable in the passing game much like the Titans team that New England faced earlier in the playoffs, but thats where the similarities kind of end. The Eagles are a far more efficient offense than the Titans were. The difference with the Eagles defense is they are a bit stingier in allowing yardage and not letting other teams convert on 1st and 3rd downs. They dont give opponents many opportunities to go down into the redzone(they allow the 3rd least compared to 29th by the Titans). They will make Tom Brady work for his yards, but i do expect Brady to still have some success methodically throwing to his myriad of weapons. The Patriots offense are #1 in 1st downs and #10 in 3rd downs while the Eagles defense are #5 agaunst 1st downs and #3 against 3rd downs. This is important for the Eagles to hold their own defensively because when they get into the redzone the Eagles are ranked 20th in redzone defense and allow opponents to convert 55% of the time, that goes down to 60% when playing away from Philadelphia. Remember when i told you that the Eagles allow 10 pts average more on the road than they do at home? Eagles 1st down defense also dips to #10 and #7 on 3rd downs. The Eagles redzone defense is much better at home but the same cannot be said on the road which is why they are ranked #20. The Patriots can use a similar gameplan like they used against the Titans. Abandon the run and focus on the passing game. Unlike the Titans, the Eagles arent a blitz heavy team and have a front four that can generate enough pressure whereas the Titans tend to blitz more but expose themselves to the pass. The Eagles can afford to drop their linebackers into coverage if need to. This will be a bit more of a challenge for Brady to get those 1st downs but their offense is consistent no matter where they play. Speaking of pass rushes, the Patriots have generated sacks at an alarming rate with 21 sacks in their last 4 games. The Eagles offensive line has been much better than the Patriots at protecting their QB so it may not be a big deal but its something that shouldnt be overlooked. How will Foles do the times when he is under pressure?

This should be interesting battle of offense vs defense.

To be continued..
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Posted: #47
war and peace seemed less time consuming than this
 
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Posted: #48

Makes me like my under pick more. I'm hoping for no big plays and slow methodical drives ending in FGs. Gimme a boring super bowl!

 
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Posted: #49
DK
agree on the comment about zebra and gavvnick....slow your role boys, maybe make your own thread if you find yourself so passionate about something? this dude puts in incredible work on this forum. BOL in the future man
 
 
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Bol tomorrow DK
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