Eagles -2.5 + Analysis

I am seeing a ton of mediocre internet gamblers and a few national blowhards hyping up a 49ers team that in my opinion will clearly be overmatched this weekend against the Eagles. There’s a reason why Sportsbetting is such a profitable venture for most books. It’s because most gamblers are lazy and easily influenced by national media who claim to be “experts”.

The way most gamblers pick games is not by breaking it down and looking for edges, it’s by scouring Twitter or their favorite gambling websites and latching onto a consensus play that is getting the most hype. Or for the ones that think they are a little savvier, they will watch ESPN or NFL network all day and get caught up in one of their favorite personalities hot takes.

This is basically the equivalent of watching CNBC all day to pick stocks. It simply doesn’t work.

To truly break down a game you need to look at all aspects of it and determine which team has an edge in things that matter most. Listed below I will give you a few facts on this game and show you why I think the Eagles have a significant edge on Sunday.

If you turn on every ESPN, FS1 or NFL network show, you are constantly reminded of the 49ers 12 game winning streak. Impressive, sure but let’s look a little closer.

Most gamblers haven’t taken the time to realize that the 49ers have not even left the west coast once during that 12 game winning streak. In fact they only left California 3 times total during the 12 game winning streak. The three times they left California was to go to Arizona, Seattle and Las Vegas which are all in close proximity to SF. Not exactly road warriors with that schedule. Take it one step further and you will see that the 49ers have only traveled east of Chicago twice all season. The Chicago game was in Week 1 by the way, the others were to Carolina in week 5 and Atlanta in week 6. They went 1-2 in those 3 games. 49ers are now being asked to fly 2500 miles to a different time zone and play the early game on Sunday. This will be the 3rd time this year they have done this and lost both times before against Chicago and Atlanta. (Panthers was a 4:05 start.)

Brock Purdy has also been crowned as the next great QB of the NFL by various “experts” who have already pushed Trey Lance and Jimmy G out of town.

Toughest crowd that Purdy has faced was Seattle. Yes, we all love the 12th man and remember when Marshawn Lynch shook the earth in 2010 against the Saints. But Seattle is not Philly. Say what you want about the city or the fans but the experience for opposing players is as tough as experience as there is in the entire NFL. Philly is just different and players are well aware of this. Purdy can say all the right things but in the back of his head, it would be impossible to not have some nerves or fear creep in about playing in Philadelphia. We’ve all heard the stories about playing there, he has too. I can promise it will be much more hostile than he’s ever seen in the NFL.

Psychologically Purdy has to have doubt about being able to beat Jalen Hurts as well. In college at Iowa State, he was defeated by none other than Jalen Hurts and Oklahoma. Maybe that doesn’t matter, but ask any Golfer, Tennis player or NFL Kicker if psychology plays a role in their success. Can Purdy eliminate that doubt and overcome the first loss against Hurts?

History is also not on SF’s side. There have been 4 rookie QBs in history to play in a conference championship game. Their record is 0-4 with an average loss of 10.25 pts.

The trenches is where games are won and while SF gets all the hype, in my opinion, the Eagles have an advantage on both lines. On the offense line the Eagles have two 1st team all pro selections in Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson. Yes Nick Bosa is a star but against the Cowboys, the 49ers had only 1 total sack and 4 QB hits. The Eagles have the consensus best O-Line in football. Hard to imagine 49ers can do more this week than they did last week, which wasn’t that much. On Defense the Eagles are the only team in NFL history that have 4 players with 10+ sacks. That is not a fluke. Trent Williams is a star for SF but the rest of the line is average. Eagles have depth for days on both lines and have manhandled teams in the trenches all season.

Offensive firepower also is a big advantage for the Eagles. The 49ers just put up a measly 19 pts at home against a Cowboys team with a pretty good defense. This includes 0 TD passes from Purdy. The Eagles on the other hand put up 60 points total against the same Cowboys in 2 meetings this year. That includes 34 from Minshew when Hurts was injured. The Eagles average 28.6 points per game which is the 2nd most in the NFL. This includes 28 ppg at home. The 49ers will not be able to play a ball control offense in this game, the Eagles defense is too good to allow them to eat up clock and stay on the field for long stretches. At some point Purdy will have to make plays. Does anyone truly believe that a rookie QB making his 9th career start can put up the 28+ points it will likely take to win this game in the most hostile environment of his career? It’s just not a likely scenario folks and something that has never been done by a rookie QB in NFL history. Why is this different?

And finally, weather doesn’t seem to be a huge factor now but that could change before Sunday. Forecast could even hit high 40’s or low 50’s but is that an advantage for SF? I don’t see it that way. Anything that gives Jalen Hurts and the high powered Eagles offense more opportunity to play their game is a disadvantage for SF. If you watched the 49ers beat GB in the snow last year you would realize that poor weather is the ultimate neutralizer in football for the weaker offensive team. A sunny day in Philadelphia is a big disadvantage for SF.

There is a lot of additional info you could look at if you wanted to dig in more but I feel like this post has gotten to be long enough by now and I have covered the most important factors. My point is, this is how you break down and handicap a game, not by watching ESPN or focusing on winning streaks or other outside noise.

Anything can happen in the NFL and if the 49ers pull it off I’ll tip my hat to them, but I’ll also be shocked.

Eagles -2.5 (max unit play for me which is 5)

PS. Be careful on SF teasers as well, you really think the books are just gonna make a SF/KC teaser that easy? GL

@SharpStatsGuy

 SF / KC teaser so easy??  Nope...but the SF / Cincy teaser will be the pick of the week  

Nice write up....love the espn / cnbc analogy 

One thing to note....going back to their 2019 Super Bowl run, SF has been faired pretty well on East Coast trips going 5-2 SU and 5-2 ATS (do not know if these were 1pm EST starts or later).  

I like Hurts to show up and show out this Sunday....he was going to win an MVP before injuring the shoulder this year and expect an MVP performance come Sunday 

You call this “analysis”? Lol 

prepare to be shocked 

@SharpStatsGuy

 I don’t think Eagle can score 28. 20 max for Eagle. People are still underestimated SF defense.  GL to you .. Eagle win by a field goal at home is too easy to be true.  

Dallas hung forty on um with dak.  That film will be looked at. 

I like it on Eagles as well ! 

Great write up and analysis , best ive seen on here yet. Good work

Not so fast and never that easy

Round RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 16 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT HOME ADVANTAGE=[ 1.95] [ 1.91] [ 1.97] [ 1.60] 1 San Francisco 49ers = 27.29 15 4 0 18.27( 32) 2 1 0 | 4 1 0 | 27.56 2 | 25.60 4 | 28.86 1 (NFC WEST) 2 Cincinnati Bengals = 27.04 14 4 0 20.89( 4) 4 2 0 | 8 4 0 | 26.38 4 | 27.03 3 | 27.48 2 (afc north) 3 Kansas City Chiefs = 26.55 15 3 0 19.95( 20) 5 2 0 | 7 2 0 | 26.46 3 | 28.47 1 | 26.01 3 (afc west) 4 Buffalo Bills = 25.97 14 4 0 20.15( 15) 3 1 0 | 10 2 0 | 27.86 1 | 27.85 2 | 24.89 4 (afc east) 5 Dallas Cowboys = 24.99 13 6 0 19.82( 24) 2 4 0 | 3 4 0 | 25.71 5 | 24.62 6 | 24.89 5 (NFC EAST) 6 Philadelphia Eagles = 24.84 15 3 0 18.51( 31) 3 1 0 | 5 1 0 | 24.93 6 | 25.15 5 | 24.67 6 (NFC EAST) 7 Los Angeles Charge</

You must be new here. 

Another stat to ponder before anointing the Eagles

Closest Final Fours by Regular-Season DVOA, 1981-2022 YEAR STDEV RK1 TM1 DVOA1 RK2 TM2 DVOA2 RK3 TM3 DVOA3 RK4 TM4 DVOA4 1997 1.5% 1 DEN 29.9% 3 GB 29.1% 4 SF 27.5% 5 PIT 26.7% 1986 3.5% 4 NYG 19.9% 5 DEN 19.0% 8 WAS 15.0% 9 CLE1 12.3% 1998 3.8% 1 DEN 32.2% 2 NYJ 28.0% 3 MIN 27.4% 6 ATL 22.9% 2022 4.1% 2 SF 27.6% 3 PHI 25.2% 4 KC 23.0% 5 CIN 18.1% 1981 4.1% 2 DAL 18.2% 3 SD 17.1% 5 CIN 16.4% 12 SF 9.2% 2009 4.3% 6 NO 25.2% 7 MIN 22.8% 8 IND 17.0% 9 NYJ 16.5% 2020 5.0% 2 TB 31.5% 3 GB 25.8% 4 BUF 23.8% 6 KC 19.6% 1990 5.0% 1 NYG 30.6% 2 LARD 24.1% 3 BUF 23.0% 7 SF 18.5%

don’t forget about the Commanders.

I guess we only compare common opponents when it’s convenient.

@SharpStatsGuy

 I'd think this is more situational analysis than stat analysis but I love it. Thank you for your writing.

1 DEN 32.2% 2 NYJ 28.0% 3 MIN 27.4% 6 ATL 22.9% 2022 4.1% 2 SF 27.6% 3 PHI 25.2% 4 KC 23.0% 5 CIN 18.1

The Eagles out up 20 points against the Cardinals

The 49ers put up 38 points twice against the Cardinals

The Eagles scored 24 and 21 points against the Commanders

The 49ers scored 37 points against the Commanders

See how stupid this “analysis” is?

yep Lol, the same team the niners just held to 12.  If you watched the commanders game when they beat the eagles, that’s the exact type of game Kyle will call.  Run heavy, clock control, play action, and great defense.  This will be a tough game and I wouldn’t be shocked if the niners lost, but if you think this game will be easy, you are a grade a bozo

There’s only one team with a worse strength of schedule (per DVOA) than the 49ers: the Philadelphia Eagles.

In term of schedule strength, both teams are same shit (31st vs 32nd). Is SF defense still outstanding against a mobile QB or not, we will have the answer this Sunday.

Eagles ML or no bet.

@anNFLfan

 I’d be more concerned about the Eagles 21st ranked run defense against a team known for their rushing offense.

I haven't watched espn. Fox. Nfl network or anything in like 5 years... don't go on any social media so I don't have a clue what the pundits Luke and why

But I like SF so...

@BigNiner

 " I’d be more concerned about the Eagles 21st ranked run defense against a team known for their rushing offense."

 Agreed with you on this point, however I think this will only work well if SF leads the game. If Eagles jump out to lead in the first half (Which I think is very possible based on how they have played in first half this year) SF will need to use Purdy more and this is where Eagles pass-rush kicks in.