Hank Stram...SB-"formula"

@Hailmurray

BOL and a razor thin score of the Rams winning by two, but not covering, along with the Bengals' bettors losing on the moneyline, would earn the books a handsome profit. I can see it happening...

The mainstream sports' media keeps on with their narrative that the Cincy Oline will give up a lot of sacks. That seems to be the narrative that they are pushing. We will see what storyline they run with the week leading up to the game. 

Both teams averaged 27.1 on O and on D the Rams gave up one less point in the regular season...so stats' wise they are very close. I seriously doubt it will be a blowout. 

@lancer89074

 Interesting formula. Little surprised not to see TO differential in there, what's more important than that especially when two teams are fairly comparable? That being said, it's fairly close, Rams +2, Cincy +0, biggest difference being in Takeaways/INTs, Rams had 19, Bengals 13. But of course Stafford had 18 pix vs Burrow, 14. After getting sacked so much vs TENN, Burrow was more decisive in running vs KC and had a couple of huge, really game changing runs in the 2nd half. He's going to have do that against the Rams too and if he can escape that first wave, he'll do the same vs LA. He showed escape ability vs KC and and that includes Chris Jones, not a far cry from Aaron Donald. He is more mobile and athletic than sum may think. Consider the closeness of all the division games and conference championship games. Do you really think this game will be that much different?

@lancer89074

I don't see points being awarded for strength of schedule in here. Hard to take a system seriously that doesn't incorporate that. This clearly favored the Rams... That said, I think it will be a close game.

Strength of schedule is a myth to begin with.

@chic-cardinals

You think so? You don't think the comparison of aggregate W/L records (part of Stram's formula) in relation to strength of schedule is relevant? I donno. That doesn't seem logical to me. A 12-5 record against a Top 5 SoS surely is better than 12-5 against a bottom 10 SoS no?

@MagixJohnson

 Don't think SOS is as important in the NFL as it is in college. Bengals played GB, KC, PITT, SF, LV, all playoff teams in the regular season, and the Ravens, Browns, Chargers, Vikings, and Broncos, all teams that were in the playoff hunt late on the season. NFC west was the better division but NFC north, Steelers, Browns, and Ravens  along with CINCY, a very competitive division. Just not that big of a disparity. GL in your plays

@mrusso

Those runs by Burrow hurt KC for sure and Ramsey can't cover all of those fine Cincy receivers. Maybe Cincy will adopt some of the 49er strategy and run right at Donald and Miller? Mixon is a load. 

@MagixJohnson

SOS certainly can be a relevant factor to my way of thinking. 

Papa Joe Chevalier used to say that it was not who you played, but when you played them that mattered. In the course of a season, teams have ups and downs (maybe be weak early and be ugly tough later in the year). I sure do miss his radio show...Upon occasion he had 'gifted insight' in these matchups. 

I love my bengals but I think little jojo is going to be in trouble all night. If he thinks for a millisecond to long he is going to get crushed.

So can I.

I am unable to query for Strength of Schedule, but here is a query for Previous Regular Season Wins which implies a substantial SOS differential:

PO = 1 and PRSW - o:PRSW > 4.5 and F

SU:   32-17 (5.9, 65.3%)

ATS:   22-26-1 (-0.2, 45.8%)

Take away CIN's Dog covers in their last two games and the ATS is 22-24-1 for the favorites.  There is no big advantage either way.

@DogbiteWilliams

 Interesting, thank you

@lancer89074 - certainly true as well!

The formula need tweaked as the NFL has shifted to the "west coast" offense the last decade or so. This formula simply cant be used in modern times.

And CLV.

Guys...

...a ...VERY BIG THANKS...to-ALL  

...that participated, and made this a:

SUPERBLY INFORMATIVE THREAD!!!   

@DogbiteWilliams

Sagarin has SoS data that you can use...

https://sagarin.usatoday.com/2021-2/nfl-team-ratings-2021/

...that "Saragin"-thing...

...is VERY-difficult to read-&-decipher  

@lajohn

Are you going to build a super 4-team 13 points teaser for this Super Bowl? Rams +8.5/Bengals +17.5/Over 35.5/Under 61.5, how does this hypothetical teaser look to you? Good luck this Sunday. 

THAT...actually-looks:

...really-REALLY-NICE!!!

...May "dabble-into"-that-one myself. 

...my ONLY "reservation", would-be:

The "possibility"-that, the Rams "may" win...

...in a, BLOW-OUT, if Cinci's offensive-line utterly collapses, and Burrow gets sacked a-zillion-times.

"If" that happens, and he possibly even gets injured...then, "it's over" for the Bengals.

"Barring injury", Burrow under-pressure, may throw a few "untimely"-interceptions.

I percieve-that..."if" either-team "blows-out" the-other, then, it will be the Rams "showing dominance".

Otherwise...the game will-be-"decided"..."in-the-trenches", calling-for, a likely-close to semi-close game...in-which, your teaser looks QUITE-"likely".

...and...yes-OF-COARSE, i will do my "customary":

"4-TM-13-&-9-PT-Teaser"...lol   

Involving, some NBA or/and NCAA baskets, since there will be nothing-else available.

.....meant... "ofcourse"   lol  

Agreed, I would more worried at the Bengals +17.5 than Rams +8.5 in that hypothetical 4-teams teaser. We shall see.

Don't underestimate Sean Mcvey's (boy genius) ability to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

I ...simply-DON'T underestimate Sean Mcvey 

Burrow threw 2 ints in post season. Stafford , 1 int. Stafford 17 in regular season, , Burrow 14.

Burrow took 9 sacks so he doesn't just throw the ball for the hell of it, for ints.