How many positions are the Chiefs better than the 49ers?

Nice writeup Andarmac...I agree with the points that you made...bravo. 

Chris Sims who is best pals with Kyle Shanahan since his college years had this to say: 'The 9ers had trouble this year with QBs who could create and go above and beyond the scheme like Russell Wilson twice and Lamar Jackson...this guy Mahomes can do that too.'

In that Falcons' game in Santa Clara, Julio Jones tore that SF secondary a new one. Of course JJ is a special talent in some ways. 

You mentioned that Mahomes is an X factor but not the whole enchilada. 

I would add that Bieniemy and Reid on offense and Spagnuolo on defense are a formidable brain trust as well (not a unique observation). Shanahan has his Father in on the game planning and IMO he was one of the best. 

A lot of food for thought in this matchup... a lot to ponder...the line is razor thin but that doesn't mean that the final score will be. BOL 

Nice write up, its wonderful to see someone put forward their analysis in a manner that shows just the fact. I'm also leaning 49er's in a game that should be fun to watch. Thanks for your efforts andarmac!!!

This is a myth perpetuated by the sports media, which I plan on deconstructing over the next 2 weeks.

even if it is true I do not see it being that big of an impact against Mahomes...

Yeah, the rumor that the SF D has trouble with mobile QBs is the worst kind of rumor...a true rumor. 

I'm not as worried about Mahomes scrambling as many people are. He had two games all year with more than 25 yards rushing before the last two weeks. And I think much of that ability to scramble comes from the Texans and Titans just being crap on the edge and at LB. That TD where he turned the corner on the Titans just isn't going to be available vs the 49ers. The 49ers have just too much speed on the edge and at LB. 

Much being made of Lamar and Wilson running on SF. Wilson had 53 yards and 29 yards at 3.6 YPC. Jackson runs on everyone. And I believe Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander, who are some of the fastest players in the league at their positions, missed at least two of those games each.

Thanks for the advice Mac!

I'm not sure. I wasn't high on Tennessee at all. I think KC certainly had more advantages on defense than they do vs SF and in other areas they had massive edges. QB, WR, TE, and coaching were edges KC had that were gargantuan over the Titans.

Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper.

One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. 

Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.

Not to derail the thread but...

Last 7 games, 

KC put up 31+ in 4 of those weeks, with 26 in the 5th highest scoring

SF put up 27+ in 4 of those weeks with 26 in the 5th highest scoring, the other 2 weeks? they lost.

Funny you should mention this, as I just posted this in my thread earlier this afternoon:

KC has won and covered 8 straight, the longest cover streak entering SB since ‘85 Pats (14 before SB). In the 8, KC was favored 7 times and covered by an avg of 7 pts/game. Only ‘76 Pitt, ‘76 Bal, ‘68 Bal, ‘07 Pats had higher cover margins in streaks that long. None won SB.

Few props popping up. Here's a fun one if you are a smaller bettor at 5Dimes and want to bet on SF:

SF wins by an odd margin of points +250

SF wins by an even margin of points +348

You can effectively lock in the SF ML for at least a +150 price, which is significantly better than what the actual ML is. 

Very concise well reasoned out arguments---I guess all thats missing is the unknown, "chaos factor" such as penalties, missed penalties, turnovers, perhaps some injuries that are unkown or could occur during game time...which is why theres no sure thing even when there is

SF can beat you in many ways - high scoring/low scoring - a big advantage in defense. Kc is a 1 trick pony - there defense will get badly exposed here. 49ers is the most consistent team all year. They could of gone 16-0 in the regular season. Take a look at San Francisco defense when they are fully healthy ? It was dam filthy- this game will not be closed- the 49ers will put a demolition on KC