Few props popping up. Here's a fun one if you are a smaller bettor at 5Dimes and want to bet on SF: SF wins by an odd margin of points +250 SF wins by an even margin of points +348 You can effectively lock in the SF ML for at least a +150 price, which is significantly better than what the actual ML is.
Wish I realized this was available before locking in my wagers . I’ll be monitoring this if the line shifts to SF and I’m able to buy out. Good eye, man.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Few props popping up. Here's a fun one if you are a smaller bettor at 5Dimes and want to bet on SF: SF wins by an odd margin of points +250 SF wins by an even margin of points +348 You can effectively lock in the SF ML for at least a +150 price, which is significantly better than what the actual ML is.
Wish I realized this was available before locking in my wagers . I’ll be monitoring this if the line shifts to SF and I’m able to buy out. Good eye, man.
Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper. One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Job job brother, That's where I'm at
See Niners -4.5 to 6..Grab now before lines move!!!Probably by game time Niners-2.5!!! Niners better at almost every category!!! Niners shouldn't have problems when Mahomes scramble..
Cause those young and fast defense can catch up to him! I THINK BOSA WILL GIVE MAHOMES PROBLEMS!! HE IS FAST AND VERY DISRUPTIVE!!And Pro Bowl Sherman should take care of Hills!!! Max bets for me
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Great to see so many old names. I don't visit much at all these days, but feel pretty good about this game and since it's the Super Bowl I thought I'd dust off the notebook and put pen to paper. One thing I should have mentioned, but I guess is implied by the number, is that I think you're buying the Chiefs high. They are off two wins where their QB was unreal. He could be that good again but vs a big step up in competition it's more than likely he's going to come down and regress a bit. KC has also won and covered 8 straight games. I can't seem to find it in my saved trends but I used to have the stat of favorites in the playoffs on 8+ game win streaks and it's really bad. Think it's a combination of over inflation and simply playing at level that is almost impossible to sustain. Many will scoff at this but my number on this game is SF -6.
Job job brother, That's where I'm at
See Niners -4.5 to 6..Grab now before lines move!!!Probably by game time Niners-2.5!!! Niners better at almost every category!!! Niners shouldn't have problems when Mahomes scramble..
Cause those young and fast defense can catch up to him! I THINK BOSA WILL GIVE MAHOMES PROBLEMS!! HE IS FAST AND VERY DISRUPTIVE!!And Pro Bowl Sherman should take care of Hills!!! Max bets for me
When I log onto Covers this is the type of post I am looking for: good, in-depth analyses and legitimate points, not a bunch of useless sniping and garbage about "scripted" games and crooked refs, etc.
Nice Post indeed!
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When I log onto Covers this is the type of post I am looking for: good, in-depth analyses and legitimate points, not a bunch of useless sniping and garbage about "scripted" games and crooked refs, etc.
Max bet on San Fran for me. BUT....if you don't pressure Mahomes or let him free to run up the sidelines for twenty yards whenever he needs to, he will eat San Fran alive just like he did the last two teams he faced. We live in an age where dominant QB's are super dominant. I am betting that the San Fran defense is good enough to limit this superstar but that KC team isn't just Mahomes. Brilliant coach, speed demon wide receivers. So place your bets and enjoy the game. But the one key I will be watching is how much time Mahomes has to throw. If he has time to throw, worry, worry a lot.
I'm not as worried about Mahomes scrambling as many people are. He had two games all year with more than 25 yards rushing before the last two weeks. And I think much of that ability to scramble comes from the Texans and Titans just being crap on the edge and at LB. That TD where he turned the corner on the Titans just isn't going to be available vs the 49ers. The 49ers have just too much speed on the edge and at LB. Much being made of Lamar and Wilson running on SF. Wilson had 53 yards and 29 yards at 3.6 YPC. Jackson runs on everyone. And I believe Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander, who are some of the fastest players in the league at their positions, missed at least two of those games each.
The big danger is not the run yardage that Mahomes can gain but rather the extra time scrambling to hit his wide open speedy receivers downfield. THAT...is the danger.
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Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Quote Originally Posted by lordzud:
Max bet on San Fran for me. BUT....if you don't pressure Mahomes or let him free to run up the sidelines for twenty yards whenever he needs to, he will eat San Fran alive just like he did the last two teams he faced. We live in an age where dominant QB's are super dominant. I am betting that the San Fran defense is good enough to limit this superstar but that KC team isn't just Mahomes. Brilliant coach, speed demon wide receivers. So place your bets and enjoy the game. But the one key I will be watching is how much time Mahomes has to throw. If he has time to throw, worry, worry a lot.
I'm not as worried about Mahomes scrambling as many people are. He had two games all year with more than 25 yards rushing before the last two weeks. And I think much of that ability to scramble comes from the Texans and Titans just being crap on the edge and at LB. That TD where he turned the corner on the Titans just isn't going to be available vs the 49ers. The 49ers have just too much speed on the edge and at LB. Much being made of Lamar and Wilson running on SF. Wilson had 53 yards and 29 yards at 3.6 YPC. Jackson runs on everyone. And I believe Dee Ford and Kwon Alexander, who are some of the fastest players in the league at their positions, missed at least two of those games each.
The big danger is not the run yardage that Mahomes can gain but rather the extra time scrambling to hit his wide open speedy receivers downfield. THAT...is the danger.
Vikings/packers above average offense - got suffocated by the 49ers defense.Its totally different when you can rush 4 and still get 2 the quarterback. The 49ers defense is fully healthy again. This will be the biggest reason the 49ers will win the Super Bowl case closed!!! It’s not rocket science.
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Vikings/packers above average offense - got suffocated by the 49ers defense.Its totally different when you can rush 4 and still get 2 the quarterback. The 49ers defense is fully healthy again. This will be the biggest reason the 49ers will win the Super Bowl case closed!!! It’s not rocket science.
Vikings/packers above average offense - got suffocated by the 49ers defense.Its totally different when you can rush 4 and still get 2 the quarterback. The 49ers defense is fully healthy again. This will be the biggest reason the 49ers will win the Super Bowl case closed!!! It’s not rocket science.
Translation...you have zero respect for the KC Oline...
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Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:
Vikings/packers above average offense - got suffocated by the 49ers defense.Its totally different when you can rush 4 and still get 2 the quarterback. The 49ers defense is fully healthy again. This will be the biggest reason the 49ers will win the Super Bowl case closed!!! It’s not rocket science.
Translation...you have zero respect for the KC Oline...
Vikings/packers above average offense - got suffocated by the 49ers defense.Its totally different when you can rush 4 and still get 2 the quarterback. The 49ers defense is fully healthy again. This will be the biggest reason the 49ers will win the Super Bowl case closed!!! It’s not rocket science.
Vikings/Packers both score a good 5-6 ppg less than KC (nearly a TD).
KC also ranked 3rd in QB sacked per game (1.6 on the season, 1.0 their last 3 games), MIN/GBP 10th and 13th respectively.
Apples. Oranges.
It's not as clear cut as you make it out to be, the weather in the 60-70's in MIA will greatly favor the KC pass attack, when SF plays from behind, they cannot grind out the clock with their rush O, look at their matches vs. the Saints and Falcons, 2 teams that play very much like the Chiefs.
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Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:
Vikings/packers above average offense - got suffocated by the 49ers defense.Its totally different when you can rush 4 and still get 2 the quarterback. The 49ers defense is fully healthy again. This will be the biggest reason the 49ers will win the Super Bowl case closed!!! It’s not rocket science.
Vikings/Packers both score a good 5-6 ppg less than KC (nearly a TD).
KC also ranked 3rd in QB sacked per game (1.6 on the season, 1.0 their last 3 games), MIN/GBP 10th and 13th respectively.
Apples. Oranges.
It's not as clear cut as you make it out to be, the weather in the 60-70's in MIA will greatly favor the KC pass attack, when SF plays from behind, they cannot grind out the clock with their rush O, look at their matches vs. the Saints and Falcons, 2 teams that play very much like the Chiefs.
You guys wouldn’t think Houston or Tennessee defense is anywhere near SF defense ? Don’t bring up the stats. 49ers don’t need 2 blitz to bring pressure. Look at SF defense when healthy weeks 1-9 they started 2 tail off when guys got hurt.49ers will stop Mahomes enough time and win this game easily.
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You guys wouldn’t think Houston or Tennessee defense is anywhere near SF defense ? Don’t bring up the stats. 49ers don’t need 2 blitz to bring pressure. Look at SF defense when healthy weeks 1-9 they started 2 tail off when guys got hurt.49ers will stop Mahomes enough time and win this game easily.
Also one way of looking at this game that really concerns me about the 49ers this game is that Patrick and the KCoffense are like the Seahawks offense on steroids. He can do all those things Wilson can and has better weapons around him and they gave 49ers all kinds of problems both games. And am I not right that KC defense is at least as strong as Seattle's?
KC wins this game.
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Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
Also one way of looking at this game that really concerns me about the 49ers this game is that Patrick and the KCoffense are like the Seahawks offense on steroids. He can do all those things Wilson can and has better weapons around him and they gave 49ers all kinds of problems both games. And am I not right that KC defense is at least as strong as Seattle's?
As a niner fan, I will try to be objective as possible. Here is how I see it:
Mahomes is the best QB but this is the best defense he has ever faced in that it can get pressure with just 4 as well as have speed in the LB/secondary. Yes the Niner’s have given up points agains teams like the Saints, falcons , rams, etc. However in those games Dee Ford, Jaqusiki Tartt and Kwon Alexander we’re out. All will play in the Super Bowl. In addition, Akhello Witherspoon was starting at right CB. Teams would throw to his side and he would get beat. No more, Emmanuel Moseley is the starter and he has played much better. Mahomes likes to chuck the ball downfield. Niners are best at preventing 20 plus yard plays. Question is how patient Mahomes will be, is he willing to go 12 plus plays down the field without trying too chuck it?
to be continued...
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As a niner fan, I will try to be objective as possible. Here is how I see it:
Mahomes is the best QB but this is the best defense he has ever faced in that it can get pressure with just 4 as well as have speed in the LB/secondary. Yes the Niner’s have given up points agains teams like the Saints, falcons , rams, etc. However in those games Dee Ford, Jaqusiki Tartt and Kwon Alexander we’re out. All will play in the Super Bowl. In addition, Akhello Witherspoon was starting at right CB. Teams would throw to his side and he would get beat. No more, Emmanuel Moseley is the starter and he has played much better. Mahomes likes to chuck the ball downfield. Niners are best at preventing 20 plus yard plays. Question is how patient Mahomes will be, is he willing to go 12 plus plays down the field without trying too chuck it?
Also one way of looking at this game that really concerns me about the 49ers this game is that Patrick and the KC offense are like the Seahawks offense on steroids. He can do all those things Wilson can and has better weapons around him and they gave 49ers all kinds of problems both games. And am I not right that KC defense is at least as strong as Seattle's?
KC wins this game.
No. This game will be as bad as seahawks -Denver or Giants - ravens
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Quote Originally Posted by Wizerguy:
Quote Originally Posted by NinjaNight:
Also one way of looking at this game that really concerns me about the 49ers this game is that Patrick and the KC offense are like the Seahawks offense on steroids. He can do all those things Wilson can and has better weapons around him and they gave 49ers all kinds of problems both games. And am I not right that KC defense is at least as strong as Seattle's?
KC wins this game.
No. This game will be as bad as seahawks -Denver or Giants - ravens
As for the other side of the ball. Niners offense is predicated on an outside zone scheme totally different from the titans. With the titans, Derrick Henry is more north/south. With outside zone scheme, defenders are more likely to be confused which leads to larger gains from the RB. Even if the chiefs try like the titans and stack the box, Jimmy more likely to beat them than Tannehill did. With Tennessee, they don’t have playmakers like Kittle, Deebo, and Emmanuel. In addition, Niners passing game is based on yards after catch. It’s very common for someone like a Kittle and Deebo take a 5 yard pass and go for 50 plus, that’s not something you can gameplan for. Not to mention Juscyzk who is a weapon in the passing game.
to be continued...
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As for the other side of the ball. Niners offense is predicated on an outside zone scheme totally different from the titans. With the titans, Derrick Henry is more north/south. With outside zone scheme, defenders are more likely to be confused which leads to larger gains from the RB. Even if the chiefs try like the titans and stack the box, Jimmy more likely to beat them than Tannehill did. With Tennessee, they don’t have playmakers like Kittle, Deebo, and Emmanuel. In addition, Niners passing game is based on yards after catch. It’s very common for someone like a Kittle and Deebo take a 5 yard pass and go for 50 plus, that’s not something you can gameplan for. Not to mention Juscyzk who is a weapon in the passing game.
From an intangible standpoint, Niners have the clear edge. We overcame adversity with constant injuries from week 4 until the playoffs. In addition, the schedule was brutal playing the Rams twice, Seahawks twice, packers, Saints, and ravens. Even our losses were all on the last play of the game. There is no quit in this team. With the super bowl, being in Miami there is always potential for distractions. I see the Niners as much less likely to have any distractions than the chiefs. With leaders that have SB experience like Sherm, Jimmy G, Emmanuel and Staley, they will make sure the team stays in line and out of trouble so that the coaches can focus solely on game planning. I don’t think the chiefs have that kind of leader who can keep them focused. In addition the pressure is much more on the chiefs. They were expected to go the Super Bowl and win it. Anything less will be a major disappointment. On the other hand the Niners were expected to be around an 8-8 team so we have exceeded expectations
With almost all the games in the second of our season coming down to the final play, it’s only fitting that the super bowl ends on the final play. My prediction is Niners win 27-24 on a game ending Gould field goal
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From an intangible standpoint, Niners have the clear edge. We overcame adversity with constant injuries from week 4 until the playoffs. In addition, the schedule was brutal playing the Rams twice, Seahawks twice, packers, Saints, and ravens. Even our losses were all on the last play of the game. There is no quit in this team. With the super bowl, being in Miami there is always potential for distractions. I see the Niners as much less likely to have any distractions than the chiefs. With leaders that have SB experience like Sherm, Jimmy G, Emmanuel and Staley, they will make sure the team stays in line and out of trouble so that the coaches can focus solely on game planning. I don’t think the chiefs have that kind of leader who can keep them focused. In addition the pressure is much more on the chiefs. They were expected to go the Super Bowl and win it. Anything less will be a major disappointment. On the other hand the Niners were expected to be around an 8-8 team so we have exceeded expectations
With almost all the games in the second of our season coming down to the final play, it’s only fitting that the super bowl ends on the final play. My prediction is Niners win 27-24 on a game ending Gould field goal
A lot of people are hyping niners DLine in that they can "get to Mahomes"
Even sacking him 3+ times in a game does not guarantee you a win, and this year's Chiefs have been ranked 3rd in protecting their QB from getting sacked.
Career game logs for Mahomes getting sacked 3+ times in a game
2018 vs ARI won 26-14 sacked 5 times
2018 @ LAR lost 51-54 sacked 3 times
2018 vs BAL won 27-24 sacked 3 times
playoffs
2018 vs IND won 31-13 sacked 4 times
2018 vs NWE lost 31-37 sacked 4 times
2019 vs IND lost 13-19 sacked 4 times
2019 vs DEN won 23-3 sacked 3 times
Overall Mahomes went 4-3 when sacked 3+ times in a game
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A lot of people are hyping niners DLine in that they can "get to Mahomes"
Even sacking him 3+ times in a game does not guarantee you a win, and this year's Chiefs have been ranked 3rd in protecting their QB from getting sacked.
Career game logs for Mahomes getting sacked 3+ times in a game
2018 vs ARI won 26-14 sacked 5 times
2018 @ LAR lost 51-54 sacked 3 times
2018 vs BAL won 27-24 sacked 3 times
playoffs
2018 vs IND won 31-13 sacked 4 times
2018 vs NWE lost 31-37 sacked 4 times
2019 vs IND lost 13-19 sacked 4 times
2019 vs DEN won 23-3 sacked 3 times
Overall Mahomes went 4-3 when sacked 3+ times in a game
Great stuff brother Based on your thoughts, are there any props you like?
I usually only play 10 props or less. I'll be on Kittle Over everything. I think he has a massive game. Can't seem to find player props yet despite Gatorade, JLO and Shakira songs all out there.
Couple "specials":
Mike Shanahan shots during broadcast OVER 1.5 +150 - I would bet this even money.
Joe Buck or Troy Aikman says "Patriots" +200 - Unfortunately BOL isn't letting me bet this. Absurd number. Pats have been in the SB the last three years. The Jimmy G Pats angle. The Dee Ford cost KC vs Pats last year angle. The Andy Reid lost to the Pats last time in the Super Bowl angle. Only way you lose this is if they say "New England" instead of "Patriots". You're getting +200 on a coinflip here.
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Quote Originally Posted by TRAIN69:
Great stuff brother Based on your thoughts, are there any props you like?
I usually only play 10 props or less. I'll be on Kittle Over everything. I think he has a massive game. Can't seem to find player props yet despite Gatorade, JLO and Shakira songs all out there.
Couple "specials":
Mike Shanahan shots during broadcast OVER 1.5 +150 - I would bet this even money.
Joe Buck or Troy Aikman says "Patriots" +200 - Unfortunately BOL isn't letting me bet this. Absurd number. Pats have been in the SB the last three years. The Jimmy G Pats angle. The Dee Ford cost KC vs Pats last year angle. The Andy Reid lost to the Pats last time in the Super Bowl angle. Only way you lose this is if they say "New England" instead of "Patriots". You're getting +200 on a coinflip here.
Excellent point Ninja. Seattle gave SF fits this year, were 6" from sweeping the series (or the idiot coaches delay of game penalty on the 1 yard line).
Mahomes is the NFLs next superstar and will do what he does best, scramble and make plays with his arm or his feet.
Hilarious someone above picked a SF blowout. Blowouts don't occur much when the team claiming to get blown out averaged 43 pts the last 2 games...
This game could be Rams vs. KC last year on MNF when neither team could stop the other.
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Excellent point Ninja. Seattle gave SF fits this year, were 6" from sweeping the series (or the idiot coaches delay of game penalty on the 1 yard line).
Mahomes is the NFLs next superstar and will do what he does best, scramble and make plays with his arm or his feet.
Hilarious someone above picked a SF blowout. Blowouts don't occur much when the team claiming to get blown out averaged 43 pts the last 2 games...
This game could be Rams vs. KC last year on MNF when neither team could stop the other.
Excellent point Ninja. Seattle gave SF fits this year, were 6" from sweeping the series (or the idiot coaches delay of game penalty on the 1 yard line).Mahomes is the NFLs next superstar and will do what he does best, scramble and make plays with his arm or his feet.Hilarious someone above picked a SF blowout. Blowouts don't occur much when the team claiming to get blown out averaged 43 pts the last 2 games... This game could be Rams vs. KC last year on MNF when neither team could stop the other.
Mahomes will do virtually nothing. He won't even exceed 17 points. This will be nothing like a shootout.nothing
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Quote Originally Posted by Killer_B:
Excellent point Ninja. Seattle gave SF fits this year, were 6" from sweeping the series (or the idiot coaches delay of game penalty on the 1 yard line).Mahomes is the NFLs next superstar and will do what he does best, scramble and make plays with his arm or his feet.Hilarious someone above picked a SF blowout. Blowouts don't occur much when the team claiming to get blown out averaged 43 pts the last 2 games... This game could be Rams vs. KC last year on MNF when neither team could stop the other.
Mahomes will do virtually nothing. He won't even exceed 17 points. This will be nothing like a shootout.nothing
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