There is a reason the books have this as a close game...and it is NOT because defense will rule the day...both of these offenses can light it up...the only thing holding this game down is Shanahan himself =========================== The reason the books have it as a close game is because you're dumb enough to believe it. Just like the books had Manning beating Seattle (I'm fairly sure that was the case) the books job isn't to tell you the truth. It's to lead you in the wrong direction. You still watch sports like a 13 year old boy. Gee whiz wally, my team still has a chance. Anything can happen. His dad knows otherwise. He's scene this artificial hype 300 times before.
Spread isn’t always accurate. Books begging for KC money - knowing the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
Quote Originally Posted by chic-cardinals:
There is a reason the books have this as a close game...and it is NOT because defense will rule the day...both of these offenses can light it up...the only thing holding this game down is Shanahan himself =========================== The reason the books have it as a close game is because you're dumb enough to believe it. Just like the books had Manning beating Seattle (I'm fairly sure that was the case) the books job isn't to tell you the truth. It's to lead you in the wrong direction. You still watch sports like a 13 year old boy. Gee whiz wally, my team still has a chance. Anything can happen. His dad knows otherwise. He's scene this artificial hype 300 times before.
Spread isn’t always accurate. Books begging for KC money - knowing the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
Anyone responding to Chic "Tin Hat Wearing Champ" Cardinals is just wasting their time...please stop feeding the Covers decorative chia pet...we are trying to train him correctly and responding to him like he is a legitimate poster is only feeding the beast...Great initial post Andy...love your work...But, as I mentioned in Uncle Benelli's thread, the real value in this game is on the OVER...There is a reason the books have this as a close game...and it is NOT because defense will rule the day...both of these offenses can light it up...the only thing holding this game down is Shanahan himself...Everyone and their mother knows that Shanahan's game plan to stop Mahomes will be to limit his possessions...and you do that by running the ball, controlling the clock...nice long drives for TDs...every coach's dream...and even if you don't score, it's not that big a deal because you have such a good defense you can depend on them to stop KC and win the game for you...right?...The Chiefs, on the other hand, will have no such illusions...knowing their defense is not the caliber of the 49ers, they will continue to attempt to score on every single possession...Back to Shanahan...what happened vs the Packers?...got a HUGE lead in the 1H...27-0...and what did he do in the 2H...?...came out super conservative...several 3 and outs...gave the Packers extra possessions and they scored 20 points to SF 10 points...I have seen him do this sh*t many times...57 points scored in that game and SF limited their scoring by going conservative...Remember, that Packers team had ONE viable threat in Adams...and they scored 20 points in that 2H against that "ELITE" SF defense...The Chiefs will score in this game...if this is a back n forth game where they are trading scores, Shanahan won't have the luxury of crawling into his conservative turtle shell...If you believe the Chiefs score 24+ in this game...you MUST take the OVER as the 49ers will have to keep up...Easier to take the OVER, imo..than a side here...
Thanks for the good advice, I’ll try to follow along
Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:
Anyone responding to Chic "Tin Hat Wearing Champ" Cardinals is just wasting their time...please stop feeding the Covers decorative chia pet...we are trying to train him correctly and responding to him like he is a legitimate poster is only feeding the beast...Great initial post Andy...love your work...But, as I mentioned in Uncle Benelli's thread, the real value in this game is on the OVER...There is a reason the books have this as a close game...and it is NOT because defense will rule the day...both of these offenses can light it up...the only thing holding this game down is Shanahan himself...Everyone and their mother knows that Shanahan's game plan to stop Mahomes will be to limit his possessions...and you do that by running the ball, controlling the clock...nice long drives for TDs...every coach's dream...and even if you don't score, it's not that big a deal because you have such a good defense you can depend on them to stop KC and win the game for you...right?...The Chiefs, on the other hand, will have no such illusions...knowing their defense is not the caliber of the 49ers, they will continue to attempt to score on every single possession...Back to Shanahan...what happened vs the Packers?...got a HUGE lead in the 1H...27-0...and what did he do in the 2H...?...came out super conservative...several 3 and outs...gave the Packers extra possessions and they scored 20 points to SF 10 points...I have seen him do this sh*t many times...57 points scored in that game and SF limited their scoring by going conservative...Remember, that Packers team had ONE viable threat in Adams...and they scored 20 points in that 2H against that "ELITE" SF defense...The Chiefs will score in this game...if this is a back n forth game where they are trading scores, Shanahan won't have the luxury of crawling into his conservative turtle shell...If you believe the Chiefs score 24+ in this game...you MUST take the OVER as the 49ers will have to keep up...Easier to take the OVER, imo..than a side here...
Thanks for the good advice, I’ll try to follow along
Andarmac, nice job, thx for taking the time. Donkey punch, you are correct.How does my guy matchup to your guy? It's the reason we see upsets in March madness, the individual matchups, so your post is very fair. It all sounds simple, the coaching aspect comes into play when you know the other guy is better and how are you going to help him and not sacrifice the other needs of the team.
"I'm afraid all we may have done is awakened a sleeping giant."
Andarmac, nice job, thx for taking the time. Donkey punch, you are correct.How does my guy matchup to your guy? It's the reason we see upsets in March madness, the individual matchups, so your post is very fair. It all sounds simple, the coaching aspect comes into play when you know the other guy is better and how are you going to help him and not sacrifice the other needs of the team.
@andarmac99 There's a fundamental problem evaluating two teams in this manner. For example, you do not want to compare the WR's from each team to each other, you want to compare the WR's to their corresponding CB's (and a lesser extent Safeties) to find mismatches. You want to compare RB's to the other team's DLine and LB corp and Safeties. If a DLine is known to apply pressure to a QB and get a lot of sacks you want to compare that to the respective OLine and their tendency to give up sacks/protect the QB. Using this last example, SF gets a lot of sacks, but against an OLine and QB on KC, they will likely not be that dominant since KC is top 3 in the league in QB protection. So while I applaud the effort you put into your analysis, I think breaking down the game in such a manner does not lead to predicting the result you hoped to achieve. My 2 cents.
Respect your post. But think the way I broke it down outlines the quality of what those matchups will be.
Regarding the highlighted part: You also have to factor in the Chiefs OL and offense have not faced a DL this good. And it's coupled by how good the secondary is. If Mahomes scrambles and buys a second he's still dealing with a great secondary that will have guys covered for longer than the pathetic secondaries of the Texans and Titans.
There's some nonsense on the previous pages about KC being held to 3 points or shutout. That's not going to happen. Their offense and Mahomes are too good. But my whole point is the SF DL, speed, and secondary possess the best units in the league capable of slowing this offense down. If you go by DVOA pass defense, Mahomes somehow only started and finished four games vs pass defenses ranked in the top half of the league. KC scored 33, 23, 23, and 26 in those games. The 33 was against Baltimore but back in W4 before the Ravens got Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters, who changed their whole secondary. The same Ravens defense gave up 530 yards and 40 points at home to the freaking Browns the very next game.
Quote Originally Posted by Donkey_Punch_:
@andarmac99 There's a fundamental problem evaluating two teams in this manner. For example, you do not want to compare the WR's from each team to each other, you want to compare the WR's to their corresponding CB's (and a lesser extent Safeties) to find mismatches. You want to compare RB's to the other team's DLine and LB corp and Safeties. If a DLine is known to apply pressure to a QB and get a lot of sacks you want to compare that to the respective OLine and their tendency to give up sacks/protect the QB. Using this last example, SF gets a lot of sacks, but against an OLine and QB on KC, they will likely not be that dominant since KC is top 3 in the league in QB protection. So while I applaud the effort you put into your analysis, I think breaking down the game in such a manner does not lead to predicting the result you hoped to achieve. My 2 cents.
Respect your post. But think the way I broke it down outlines the quality of what those matchups will be.
Regarding the highlighted part: You also have to factor in the Chiefs OL and offense have not faced a DL this good. And it's coupled by how good the secondary is. If Mahomes scrambles and buys a second he's still dealing with a great secondary that will have guys covered for longer than the pathetic secondaries of the Texans and Titans.
There's some nonsense on the previous pages about KC being held to 3 points or shutout. That's not going to happen. Their offense and Mahomes are too good. But my whole point is the SF DL, speed, and secondary possess the best units in the league capable of slowing this offense down. If you go by DVOA pass defense, Mahomes somehow only started and finished four games vs pass defenses ranked in the top half of the league. KC scored 33, 23, 23, and 26 in those games. The 33 was against Baltimore but back in W4 before the Ravens got Jimmy Smith and Marcus Peters, who changed their whole secondary. The same Ravens defense gave up 530 yards and 40 points at home to the freaking Browns the very next game.
Great points andarmac. Also it should be known that when kwon, Dee and jaquiski were healthy, our D was only allowing 11 points per game. Our only weak link at right cornerback is no longer a weak link as we benched Witherspoon for Moseley. Mahomes is used to long chunk plays. That will be taken away by this defense which is tops in not allowing chunk plays. If KC is gonna score, they going to have to be patient and go 10 plus plays. Question is does Mahomes stay patient or does he get frustrated and chuck it into tight coverage.
Great points andarmac. Also it should be known that when kwon, Dee and jaquiski were healthy, our D was only allowing 11 points per game. Our only weak link at right cornerback is no longer a weak link as we benched Witherspoon for Moseley. Mahomes is used to long chunk plays. That will be taken away by this defense which is tops in not allowing chunk plays. If KC is gonna score, they going to have to be patient and go 10 plus plays. Question is does Mahomes stay patient or does he get frustrated and chuck it into tight coverage.
Andy , Thanks for taking the time to compile and post all of this great insight. I hope all will take the time to read all of this carefully, as it will help them immensely in making a sound wagering decision.
Thanks again for your time and your effort in this.
Good Luck , bud
Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
Andy , Thanks for taking the time to compile and post all of this great insight. I hope all will take the time to read all of this carefully, as it will help them immensely in making a sound wagering decision.
Thanks again for your time and your effort in this.
While KC got the 49ers at the most important position at QB. 49ers dominated the O-line and D-line. This 3 position should be at everyone top list when building a team.
While KC got the 49ers at the most important position at QB. 49ers dominated the O-line and D-line. This 3 position should be at everyone top list when building a team.
League stats are one dimensional and I often times will look at opponents to see if the stats are legit or not. So the 49ers were great in some categories but are those opponents faced strong in those categories or do the wins against weaker opponents make the stats look better? Same goes for the Chefs (spelling intentional) are their strengths or weaknesses skewed due to the teams the faced?
How did these teams do in the categories of strength and weakness when they played opponents who were strong in those categories? So for example I'd say based on division and schedule that SF faced better teams than KC did without looking at their out of division groupings this year. I am not convinced that SF faced a large number of great passing teams, nor that KC faced many great defenses.
KC seems strong in the passing category and so which opponents did the 49ers play who were top 10 passing teams and how did they do in those games and did they deliver the pressure against the QB that is what needs to be shown in this game? And what top 10 run teams did KC face and how did they do in those games and against the run?
I'm not convinced that SF faced a large number of high ranking pass teams and that is what will determine the game. Notice that in the KC playoff games, neither team could hold a lead because their secondaries got worn out and exposed and the points started coming quickly, that could be the case in this game. I also think for SF to win they have to control the clock and run the ball down their throat as they did in the NFCC game last week. If they keep the score lower and control the clock with a run game and keep the Chefs from scoring quickly via the pass game then SF should win. If KC gets a few quick passing scores I think it will be difficult for them to come back through the passing game, just like it was for Tenn last week.
League stats are one dimensional and I often times will look at opponents to see if the stats are legit or not. So the 49ers were great in some categories but are those opponents faced strong in those categories or do the wins against weaker opponents make the stats look better? Same goes for the Chefs (spelling intentional) are their strengths or weaknesses skewed due to the teams the faced?
How did these teams do in the categories of strength and weakness when they played opponents who were strong in those categories? So for example I'd say based on division and schedule that SF faced better teams than KC did without looking at their out of division groupings this year. I am not convinced that SF faced a large number of great passing teams, nor that KC faced many great defenses.
KC seems strong in the passing category and so which opponents did the 49ers play who were top 10 passing teams and how did they do in those games and did they deliver the pressure against the QB that is what needs to be shown in this game? And what top 10 run teams did KC face and how did they do in those games and against the run?
I'm not convinced that SF faced a large number of high ranking pass teams and that is what will determine the game. Notice that in the KC playoff games, neither team could hold a lead because their secondaries got worn out and exposed and the points started coming quickly, that could be the case in this game. I also think for SF to win they have to control the clock and run the ball down their throat as they did in the NFCC game last week. If they keep the score lower and control the clock with a run game and keep the Chefs from scoring quickly via the pass game then SF should win. If KC gets a few quick passing scores I think it will be difficult for them to come back through the passing game, just like it was for Tenn last week.
Spread isn’t always accurate. Books begging for KC money - knowing the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
I remember the line on the Seattle/Denver superbowl #48 which opened Seattle -1 and flipped almost immediately to Denver -1 and floated up to -3 Denver in some places a day or two before the game.
So you see KC -1 as the books begging for KC money? Hmmm...ok. If I owned a book and was begging for KC money, I would open it KC +3.
What is the public's perception on this game? Are the Chiefs or are the 49ers thought to be the stronger side?
I would say that with KC bumbling and stumbling in the first quarters of both playoff games that the perception of them is that they are beatable especially after the start to finish blowout victories by the 49ers.
I am not too impressed by those two victories...but others are. I never considered the Vikings or the Packers to be elite teams despite their records. The Titans could have beaten both of them IMO...I know that goes against the grain of public opinion...so be it.
I see some sportswriters claim that this current game opened as a pick 'em but I see no online evidence of that...Westgate had the earliest opening line in Vegas with KC -1. The line has flipped up to KC -1.5 from time to time and then back to -1 at some places if VegasInsider is accurate.
The weekend before the game, Reno will be hit with SF money pouring in but I doubt if the line will go up over any key numbers...no telling what the Vegas crowd will do on the side in this game...the over seems to be the popular pick in this game. After that snoozefest last year, they might be right.
I have a KC future which I have not hedged...will probably let it ride now...whoot there it is.
Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:
Spread isn’t always accurate. Books begging for KC money - knowing the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
I remember the line on the Seattle/Denver superbowl #48 which opened Seattle -1 and flipped almost immediately to Denver -1 and floated up to -3 Denver in some places a day or two before the game.
So you see KC -1 as the books begging for KC money? Hmmm...ok. If I owned a book and was begging for KC money, I would open it KC +3.
What is the public's perception on this game? Are the Chiefs or are the 49ers thought to be the stronger side?
I would say that with KC bumbling and stumbling in the first quarters of both playoff games that the perception of them is that they are beatable especially after the start to finish blowout victories by the 49ers.
I am not too impressed by those two victories...but others are. I never considered the Vikings or the Packers to be elite teams despite their records. The Titans could have beaten both of them IMO...I know that goes against the grain of public opinion...so be it.
I see some sportswriters claim that this current game opened as a pick 'em but I see no online evidence of that...Westgate had the earliest opening line in Vegas with KC -1. The line has flipped up to KC -1.5 from time to time and then back to -1 at some places if VegasInsider is accurate.
The weekend before the game, Reno will be hit with SF money pouring in but I doubt if the line will go up over any key numbers...no telling what the Vegas crowd will do on the side in this game...the over seems to be the popular pick in this game. After that snoozefest last year, they might be right.
I have a KC future which I have not hedged...will probably let it ride now...whoot there it is.
Spread isn’t always accurate. Books begging for KC money - knowing the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
I remember the line on the Seattle/Denver superbowl #48 which opened Seattle -1 and flipped almost immediately to Denver -1 and floated up to -3 Denver in some places a day or two before the game. So you see KC -1 as the books begging for KC money? Hmmm...ok. If I owned a book and was begging for KC money, I would open it KC +3. What is the public's perception on this game? Are the Chiefs or are the 49ers thought to be the stronger side? I would say that with KC bumbling and stumbling in the first quarters of both playoff games that the perception of them is that they are beatable especially after the start to finish blowout victories by the 49ers. I am not too impressed by those two victories...but others are. I never considered the Vikings or the Packers to be elite teams despite their records. The Titans could have beaten both of them IMO...I know that goes against the grain of public opinion...so be it. I see some sportswriters claim that this current game opened as a pick 'em but I see no online evidence of that...Westgate had the earliest opening line in Vegas with KC -1. The line has flipped up to KC -1.5 from time to time and then back to -1 at some places if VegasInsider is accurate. The weekend before the game, Reno will be hit with SF money pouring in but I doubt if the line will go up over any key numbers...no telling what the Vegas crowd will do on the side in this game...the over seems to be the popular pick in this game. After that snoozefest last year, they might be right. I have a KC future which I have not hedged...will probably let it ride now...whoot there it is.
This is a very good point - 2 star QB Manning/Mahomes- public love them - SEATTLE defense put a demolition on Denver in that super bowl
Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
Quote Originally Posted by Ikid2groove035:
Spread isn’t always accurate. Books begging for KC money - knowing the 49ers will put a demolition on KC
I remember the line on the Seattle/Denver superbowl #48 which opened Seattle -1 and flipped almost immediately to Denver -1 and floated up to -3 Denver in some places a day or two before the game. So you see KC -1 as the books begging for KC money? Hmmm...ok. If I owned a book and was begging for KC money, I would open it KC +3. What is the public's perception on this game? Are the Chiefs or are the 49ers thought to be the stronger side? I would say that with KC bumbling and stumbling in the first quarters of both playoff games that the perception of them is that they are beatable especially after the start to finish blowout victories by the 49ers. I am not too impressed by those two victories...but others are. I never considered the Vikings or the Packers to be elite teams despite their records. The Titans could have beaten both of them IMO...I know that goes against the grain of public opinion...so be it. I see some sportswriters claim that this current game opened as a pick 'em but I see no online evidence of that...Westgate had the earliest opening line in Vegas with KC -1. The line has flipped up to KC -1.5 from time to time and then back to -1 at some places if VegasInsider is accurate. The weekend before the game, Reno will be hit with SF money pouring in but I doubt if the line will go up over any key numbers...no telling what the Vegas crowd will do on the side in this game...the over seems to be the popular pick in this game. After that snoozefest last year, they might be right. I have a KC future which I have not hedged...will probably let it ride now...whoot there it is.
This is a very good point - 2 star QB Manning/Mahomes- public love them - SEATTLE defense put a demolition on Denver in that super bowl
League stats are one dimensional and I often times will look at opponents to see if the stats are legit or not. So the 49ers were great in some categories but are those opponents faced strong in those categories or do the wins against weaker opponents make the stats look better? Same goes for the Chefs (spelling intentional) are their strengths or weaknesses skewed due to the teams the faced? How did these teams do in the categories of strength and weakness when they played opponents who were strong in those categories? So for example I'd say based on division and schedule that SF faced better teams than KC did without looking at their out of division groupings this year. I am not convinced that SF faced a large number of great passing teams, nor that KC faced many great defenses. KC seems strong in the passing category and so which opponents did the 49ers play who were top 10 passing teams and how did they do in those games and did they deliver the pressure against the QB that is what needs to be shown in this game? And what top 10 run teams did KC face and how did they do in those games and against the run? I'm not convinced that SF faced a large number of high ranking pass teams and that is what will determine the game. Notice that in the KC playoff games, neither team could hold a lead because their secondaries got worn out and exposed and the points started coming quickly, that could be the case in this game. I also think for SF to win they have to control the clock and run the ball down their throat as they did in the NFCC game last week. If they keep the score lower and control the clock with a run game and keep the Chefs from scoring quickly via the pass game then SF should win. If KC gets a few quick passing scores I think it will be difficult for them to come back through the passing game, just like it was for Tenn last week.
KC haven’t face a D-line like this all year. Mahomes will get hit
Quote Originally Posted by wallstreetcappers:
League stats are one dimensional and I often times will look at opponents to see if the stats are legit or not. So the 49ers were great in some categories but are those opponents faced strong in those categories or do the wins against weaker opponents make the stats look better? Same goes for the Chefs (spelling intentional) are their strengths or weaknesses skewed due to the teams the faced? How did these teams do in the categories of strength and weakness when they played opponents who were strong in those categories? So for example I'd say based on division and schedule that SF faced better teams than KC did without looking at their out of division groupings this year. I am not convinced that SF faced a large number of great passing teams, nor that KC faced many great defenses. KC seems strong in the passing category and so which opponents did the 49ers play who were top 10 passing teams and how did they do in those games and did they deliver the pressure against the QB that is what needs to be shown in this game? And what top 10 run teams did KC face and how did they do in those games and against the run? I'm not convinced that SF faced a large number of high ranking pass teams and that is what will determine the game. Notice that in the KC playoff games, neither team could hold a lead because their secondaries got worn out and exposed and the points started coming quickly, that could be the case in this game. I also think for SF to win they have to control the clock and run the ball down their throat as they did in the NFCC game last week. If they keep the score lower and control the clock with a run game and keep the Chefs from scoring quickly via the pass game then SF should win. If KC gets a few quick passing scores I think it will be difficult for them to come back through the passing game, just like it was for Tenn last week.
KC haven’t face a D-line like this all year. Mahomes will get hit
What is the public's perception on this game? Are the Chiefs or are the 49ers thought to be the stronger side?
Based purely on the last game each team played I have to assume public perception is all over SF since they shutout GB for the entire first half. The public has a very short-term memory when it comes to these things.
Quote Originally Posted by lancer89074:
What is the public's perception on this game? Are the Chiefs or are the 49ers thought to be the stronger side?
Based purely on the last game each team played I have to assume public perception is all over SF since they shutout GB for the entire first half. The public has a very short-term memory when it comes to these things.
Regarding the highlighted part: You also have to factor in the Chiefs OL and offense have not faced a DL this good.
For top 10 teams sacks/game on the season they faced 3:
JAX - 0 sacks (they sacked JAX once)
MIN - 5 sacks, KCC still out-rushed and out-passed MIN in their win
NWE - 1 sack (they sacked NWE 3 times)
So 2 out of their 3 games they out-sacked the opposition, in the lone standout when they gave up 5 sacks, not only did they still win the game, they out-rushed and out-passed their opponent.
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
Regarding the highlighted part: You also have to factor in the Chiefs OL and offense have not faced a DL this good.
For top 10 teams sacks/game on the season they faced 3:
JAX - 0 sacks (they sacked JAX once)
MIN - 5 sacks, KCC still out-rushed and out-passed MIN in their win
NWE - 1 sack (they sacked NWE 3 times)
So 2 out of their 3 games they out-sacked the opposition, in the lone standout when they gave up 5 sacks, not only did they still win the game, they out-rushed and out-passed their opponent.
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