4. What has Carolina done to desperate teams?
I love the desperation angle and use it often.
But you can fade that angle too.
Carolina faced a desperate division rival last week in ATL at home.
What did they do? Smashed them 38-0 ending their playoff hopes.
They faced a game Saints team that needs every win it could get.
What did they do? Won by 3. That's an argument for the spread of +4 here right? Wrong. They scored 41 points. The Giants aren't scoring 38 points folks. Not this team. Not against the Panthers.
Before that it was Dallas on Thanksgiving. Desperation game for Dallas as the Panthers were at one point, a 1 point DOG!
33-14 Panthers in a game Dallas was never in.
Before that?
A desperate Washington team (as is every team the NFC East):
44-16.
Folks these are very disturbing victories if you are on the Giants!
All those teams could be classified as desperate and the Panthers not only won 3 of the 4, they killed 3 of the 4, two of which are in the Giants division and where the Giants get some of their victories from.
5. So why is this Giants team unlike the teams of Giants past?
The Giants have 6 victories....
Against teams a combined 31-47 none over .500.
What about last year?
5 victories over teams with a 22-58 record with only one team finishing over .500...the Texans at 9-7.
In 2013 they only beat two 'good' teams: The 8-7-1 Packers and the 10-6 Eagles. And those teams weren't all that 'good'. They were decent. They weren't the Panthers.
You have to go all the way back to 2012....2012!!!! to see a win like the win the Giants need today:
A 38-10 win against the Packers and a win over the Niners team that reached the Super Bowl.
What does that say? The teams in recent Giant history aren't Giants killers at all!!! Not this permutation of a team...
6. The final point: Your retorts.
The Panthers RB Stewart sitting does not justify this line at -4. I'm sorry. Go look at his game log.
Also, you worry about the Panther motivation to win.
Let me tell you this: This team has been called the WORST undefeated team in history and they know it. They also take the field and they are proving it against teams that are absolutely motivated to take them out in every way.
So let's put that argument to bed.
All the headlines this week? Giants over Patriots...It'll happen again. You don't think in the social media era the Panthers don't see this?
Plus they still haven't wrapped up a first round bye so why is everyone saying they won't be motivated, all with a perfect season on the line!!!
Your last argument: The Panthers schedule isn't that impressive.
Ok, but it's 13-0 record folks. Wins over Seattle and GB. Let's not poo-poo 13-0. Look at the Giants in the worst NFC East division maybe EVER and look at their wins before you throw stones!
Finally, I go outside my door and this is Giants weather. Very cold. It does disrupt opponents, I will say that.
To sum it all up:
I can't see the Giants winning and the spread is dangerous but not enough to push me off the Panthers.
The only way I see the Giants covering is if the Panthers lead by 10 and the Giants score late and ultimately lose by 3.
That is why when this line was 3.5 on 5 Dimes I bought it down to 3. But I am posting it at 4 because 3 doesn't help anyone here as it is not available. The Giants will fight but it won't be enough and this is simply not enough points.
Can't believe the line has dropped since opening as the bettors be it sharps or squares continue to disrespect an undefeated team with a sterling ATS record.
This is only a 2 unit play for me as the spread is dangerous and it pains me to put a personal 5-0 record on the line giving out over a FG but I have to do it. It is not Rex vs. Jets or SMU vs. Tulane but it is still a postable moderate play in its own right.
The pick:
Carolina -4 over Giants