If you love situational handicapping, this will be your week. Week Eight.

love reading your insight into gms..bol  this week..

How much will loss of mangold effect jets?

BOL SUUMA 

Thought the same when I saw the injury report. Brandon Marshall out is a no-go against Gates/Henry.

A lot. Mangold is out, Clady is questionable and banged up. Qvale is out. The OL could look like this: Ijalana-Carpenter-Johnson-Winters-Shell. Shell was a 5th round pick in April. This is an absolute nightmare for the road warrior Fitzpatrick. The Browns front seven is going to swarm all over this OL and Matt Forte. Their best gameplan might be to just let Fitzpatrick consistently hit throws into man coverage. I really believe this is going to be another classic Fitzpatrick collapse.

On the flip side you have Josh McCown starting against a banged up Jets defense. Wilkerson will be a GTD, Lee, Carter and Skrine are out. Skrine is the only one who could challenge Pryor with athleticism. Revis should get burned by Pryor. The Jets won't have any speed on LB to chase Crowell in the open field. Harris is a liability against the run, Henderson in coverage. Crowell should have a huge game. McCown is a bad QB but over his 9 starts with the Browns he didn't have many off games. His off games were against Denver and Arizona last year, two good defenses. The Jets don't have a good defense at this point. If you take away McCown's DEN & ARI games, he has a TD/INT ratio of 9-3 over his 7 starts, with a completion percentage of 66.7%. He doesn't have to do much in this game, Hue Jackson will have a solid offensive gameplan.

Being a road game, I see the advantage on the Browns side but this game atleast isn't more than a coinflip. I will try to get Browns +3 or play them on the ML for great value.

Some funny trends:

Winless teams are 62-33 ATS (65%) after week 7.

Winless teams are 33-18 SU after week 5 when the line is +3 or lower.

Since last year, Jets are 3-7 SU & 3-6-1 ATS in true road games. Overall, they got outscored by more than a TD per game.


Obviously, take it with a grain of salt

I have the JETS as my elimination pick...

I think  NYJ is my best play...

Should I reconsider?  I still have Denver and N.E.  as a possible play.

My honest opinion: Take NE.


BOL Deac!

You should change your name to Mr, Scat...now get lost.

The Packers secondary is in shambles right now. On top of that they hadn't been tested by a good passing team yet. The Lions are more of a west coast style of offense with short passes. The Falcons should be able to do whatever they want through the air.

Also when you factor in the fact that Packers are an average at best team on the road and the Falcons are coming off a home loss, I love the Falcons in this spot.

Aside from that I'm with you on the Saints. They have the offense to wear Seattle will have to be able to put up 24-28 to win on the road. That is tough for them these days.

BOL this week Suuma.....I'm on the Browns for their first win....just a gut feel.......with you on Carolina, NE, Saints......also adding the Colts....keep it going....

GL this week suuma.  

 

Suuma thanks for all you do. 

Great info! BOL

Good info, thanks bro

BOL Buddy.

..gl..summa..

Good luck today guys!

JAX +3.5 -110 L
NE ML/CIN O41 -118
NE -6 -105
CLE +2.5 -110
CAR -3 -110 (1.5u)
NO +3.5 -110 (2u)
OAK +1.5 -105

Scanning through the inactive reports now.

JAX +3.5 -110 L
NE ML/CIN O41 -118
NE -6 -105
CLE +2.5 -110
HOU -2 -110
IND +3 -115
CAR -3 -110 (1.5u)
NO +3.5 -110 (2u)
OAK +1.5 -105

Big card today, let's get them!

Might have pick(s) on the late games. Loving the card this week, let's see how it plays out.