If you love situational handicapping, this will be your week. Week Eight.

Good stuff, Suuma.

I like them all except for Oakland. Good point in the rare reverse cross country home/away east/west vortex that I'm not sure I've ever seen before, but this is a game that I just feel like the Bucs come out and make a statement with to show that they are a playoff team going forward. Plus I have a little giveaway/takeaway system I've been doing for years during weeks 5-10 or so, and TB was one fumble recovery or INT from being in my "system," so I'm really feeling TB this week.

GL this week man!

Redskins @ Bengals

The Redskins try an equal approach, but Marvin Lewis got instructions from Todd Bowles, about how to manage the London trip. Todd Bowles absolutely mastered the London trip last year. He was in touch with doctors and sleep experts. The Bengals depart on Thursday evening and Lewis cancelled Wi-Fi, movies and snacks. Bengals players get one big meal and then will have to sleep to make the flight a normal night. When they land Friday morning, they gonna practice like its just another day in the US.

On such a travel week, you want your roster as healthy as possible. The Redskins will be missing three key players: Josh Norman, Trent Williams & Brandon Scherff. All three are a long shot to play this week. Trent Williams has made four consecutive Pro Bowls. He graded out as the 2nd-best tackle by PFF this season (take it with a grain of salt). To miss an elite blind side tackle is bad for every QB in the league, but even more for a QB who isn't good under pressure - Kirk Cousins. Brandon Scherff graded out as the 6th-best guard thus far. This OL has really been gelling this year, it's just bad for Kirk Cousins to be without two of them. Also Jordan Reed is not yet cleared. He could miss another game. Maybe its best for the Redskins to get those players healthy over the bye week.

Bengals offense finally got Eifert back, even though on a limited count. he will see more action this week. The Dalton/Green connection is on fire and now they have their red zone target back. The only real bad matchup for the Bengals is RT Cedric Ogbuehi vs. Ryan Kerrigan. I think they will figure something out, maybe add a RB as an extra blocker often. Cincy have been moving the ball well the past few weeks. The Skins defense is bad and without Norman, I think the Bengals will put up 24+ points easily.

Strong leans: Bengals & Over

its for sure trent, brandon sherff and norman are out? 

I said 'long shot'. I don't lock anything in before final news. From what I've read, it seems so. Trent Williams couldn't walk alone on Sunday, Norman entered the concussion protocol and needs to be cleared before departing to London, same as Reed. Scherff sounds like 50/50.

Thanks for  the bengals/redskins info, very informative.

Jaguars +3.5 -110

Some quick thoughts:

1.  Jaguars had a players/coaches/owner meeting. These meetings normally set up a motivation boost for the first game afterwards. Just like Bills vs. Cards in week 3.

2.      2. Jaguars have a decent defense, much better against the pass than against the run though. The Titans have one of the worst first down offenses. They create new first downs on first downs at the fewest rate in the league, by far. They played several bottom-10 first down defenses: CLE, IND, DET, OAK etc. JAX rank 14. MIN rank 3 and Titans didn’t do much on offense. JAX have a top-10 pass D by metrics. They can shut down that funny WR corps and stack the box like CLE did. They held Murray to 3 yards per carry. CLE really could have won that game. They shut down the running game but gave up one huge run to Mariota and two long bombs to Kendall Wright when I remember right. JAX have a much better secondary to go man-to-man.

3.      3.  Mularkey laying 3.5 ? Come on.

4. Titans are without Rashad Johnson and Perrish Cox. If they don’t get enough pressure on Bortles, Robinson and Allen could finally have a decent game

JAX +3.5 -110
NE -6 -105
CAR -3 -110 *
NO +3.5 -110 (2u)
OAK +1.5 -105

*Saving the -3 now, but willing to add another unit.

Allen Robinson, and Allen Hurns

Bol SUUMA

GL Suuma

Hey Suuma I saw you say that will play chiefs waiting on plus 3 did u mean will take colts plus the pts was a little confused reading that.

good luck !

Where can I get Jax plus 3.5 minus 110?

JAX +3.5 LOSE

What a no show from their defense. I guess they dont want Bradley anymore. On to Sunday!

Yep. Today's practice gonna be interesting. Lean shifts towards the over with Reed playing.

I think injuries in general are overrated, because good coaches know how to compensate. I always look at key injuries that affect a team's play in regard to the gameplan against the opposing side.

I think Booker will be fine, I don't really care about Anderson. In fact, Booker had a better run DVOA this year. Hunter Henry is a plus for Denver, no doubt. I digged a little into the Denver defense:

The Chargers game was the only game in which Denver gave up a significant stat line to TEs. So was it just an outliner? Henry scored the only TE TD on Denver this year. If I reduce their avg defense against TEs by the SD game, this is what they have been allowing to opposing TEs per game:

0 TD, 3.9 rec, 6.3 targets 39.9 yards

So my question is, will a matured defense like Denver with a great DC get busted twice by SD's TEs? I would tend to believe they will be better prepared this time than last time on a short week.

I had JAX as well, I see you backed them too.


I can't believe I backed this team.

Two dumb nuts