If you love situational handicapping, this will be your week. Week Eight.

Saints +3.5 -110 (2u)


Seahawks / Saints

Seahawks played five full quarters on SNF at Arizona. Their defense was on the field for 46 minutes and 21 seconds, which is a new NFL record. They were on the field for 90 defensive plays. Sherman couldn't walk without help after the game. Now they travel back to Seattle and will travel to NO next week to across two time zones and play an early east game at 11.00 AM their body clock time against a MUCH better offense than Arizona has along with a much better offensive line.

If this isn't enough for you, let me blow you away with this small sample-sized trend:

Road teams off a tie are 0-7 SUATS, losing by 19.3 PPG

The Saints barely lost at KC, a tough venue to play in. They actually outgained the Chiefs by 0.2 per play on the road. 0-2 on turnovers were the key to success - Chiefs had a pick six off a tipped ball that was precisely thrown by Brees. The Saints are averaging 36 PPG in three home games now playing against a banged up Seattle defense and an OL that is an absolute mess. I see the Saints setting the tone on offense.


Cardinals / Panthers

I've circled this game as a classic playoff revenge spot for the Cards back in July, but the new circumstances make me go with the Panthers in this one. First of all, the tie trend also applies for the Cardinals. Secondly, the Panthers come into this game off their bye (!) week, sitting at 1-5. If they lose this game, their season will be over and more importantly, they finally lose their standing as a strong NFC team. If this team has any pride, they will go all in on this one. The bye week should have helped to get their heads clear.

Teams off their bye week playing vs. a team off an overtime game are 34-15 SU. Line opened at -2.5, gonna watch line movement.


Packers / Falcons

Packers off 9+ days off rest and Falcons off overtime game and have TNF vs. TB (triple revenge) on deck. Teams off 9+ rest vs teams off overtime game from the Sunday before are 46-17 SU & 38-23 ATS. As dogs, these teams are 21-5 ATS. This trend also applies to the Panthers.

Waiting for +3 at solid juice.


Raiders / Bucs

Very interesting. Raiders are on b2b road games, but their situation is much better than TB's. The Raiders stay at Central Florida and don't travel back home while the Bucs just come back from their west coast trip. No body clock issues for the Raiders. Also, pacific teams playing b2b east coast games are 21-6 ATS since 1989 and 7-1 ATS since 2002. Matchup-wise, I honestly don't see how the Bucs defense is going to stop this Raiders offense.

Line opened at +1 and is on his way up. Could be a sweet ML play.

Since Bill Belichick is with the Patriots, he is 10-2 ATS and 11-1 SU in regular season revenge games.

dat some real s@#$t man gl

interesting read,

Bills win again with Brady.....Bills just have a good pass rush and give Pats matchup problems...I see Bills winning by 6

I like the over in the Bills/Patriots game and the over in the Raiders/Bucs game. Like your point about the Seahawks/Saints and i'm leaning Saints. Even if Seattle gets some stops and a couple turnovers can their offense score enough?

The Seahawks offense should be fresh though right? For being on the field for seemingly 5 minutes? And Saints don't have the defensive talent of Arizona to expose that horrible offensive line. But you make a lot of good points in your write up. Going to look long and hard at that one. Thanks for the post, great read!

Thanks for the stay on pats game. I may have to reconsider my play now. 

nice info here, thanks as always Suuma!

   Your not too good at predicting line movements if you like the packers you  bet them now the line will be closer to a pick em at game time 

Seahawks info is tremendous.

I have a small disagreement on the Cards. You had the game circled for a reason and it should stay circled Suuma. Add in the deflating tie yesterday which will make Ariens a slave driver this week. You're trading this is for a team going all in at 1-4 (and not a good one) against one that is 3-3-1 and still very much alive to win their division. That's a very tough trade-off Suuma. Disagreement aside, the info is great.

Road teams off a tie are 0-7 SUATS, losing by 19.3 PPG

To me Saints are the best one, laying pts on road, Saints should of won this past week, turnovers killed them. See a high scoring game 30-27 Saints win.

Raiders 4-0 on road, Tampa is def good enough to put up 30 on Oakland, I have a small lean on Tampa as of today,  Atl loses and Tampa wins, tampa in first place, extra motivation.

0-7 SUATS, losing by 19.3 PPG 

Not quite sure how these two relate...

That stat remains that stat, regardless of the outcome last night.....(it's a small sample size....but it still doesn't change anything).

If you want to play against Seattle you site the fact they could only convert 3 out of 14 on 3rd down and were shut out till the 4th quarter and never scored a TD 

like the saints and packers pick...btw how do you know oakland is staying in florida? where do u get that info? 

You should change your name to Mr Stat  the Stats your using are all garbage