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If you love situational handicapping, this will be your week. Week Eight.

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Posted: #26
For everyone curious about the 7 games on the 'tie-trend':

1989: Browns (9-6-1, made playoffs) lost 10-13 as -7 favs at Detroit (7-9)

2002: Steelers (10-5-1, made playoffs) lost 23-31 as -3 favs at Tennessee (11-5)

2008: Bengals (4-11-1) lost 10-27 as +7 dogs at Pittsburgh (12-4)

2008: Eagles (9-6-1, made playoffs) lost 7-36 as +1.5 dogs at Baltimore (11-1)

2013: Packers (8-7-1, made playoffs) lost 10-40 as +6.5 dogs at Detroit (7-9)

2014: Bengals (10-4-1, made playoffs) lost 0-27 as +3.5 dogs at Indianapolis (11-5)

2014: Panthers (7-8-1, made playoffs) lost 17-38  as +7 dogs at Green Bay (12-4)

6 of those teams made the playoffs that year and lost on the spread by 18.25 PPG after a tie.
 
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Posted: #27
Road teams off a tie are 0-7 SUATS, losing by 19.3 PPG

Is this teams playing on the road the week following a tie or teams playing on the road during the game in which they tied?


 
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Posted: #28
Nevermind as you posted the results before i had a chance to read page 2 
 
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Posted: #29
Digged a bit deeper into the Pats trend:

The Patriots have lost 79 games under Bill Belichick. 12 of those occured against teams they had a second game against during that same season.

Pats went 10-2 SU & 11-1 ATS in these revenge games.

With Tom Brady, they are 8-0 SUATS.

They have won the last four such games by a combined score of 166-51.

2009: 31-13 vs. Jets

2010: 45-3 vs. Jets

2011: 49-21 vs. Bills

2014: 41-13 vs. Dolphins


Take the information and do what you want to do.


 
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Posted: #30
It seems like McCoy won't be playing this week and Goodwin left the game with an injury as well.

This Bills offense is obviously lacking some playmakers. Without McCoy or with him injured, they weren't able to move the ball consistently on a soft Dolphins defense. I don't see them being successful against the Pats in this spot in which BB will spend extra hours to not lose to Rex Ryan a second time. They only scored 16 points in the first game when the NE offense couldnt stay on the field (23:49 TOP). Now they are maybe down McCoy, Woods and Goodwin. Last year the Bills offense had 17.5% DVOA offense with McCoy and -13.4% without him. Don't want to lay so much road chalk in general, but it's with a great coaching staff and an ATS offense.

Pats -6 -110


 
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Posted: #31
 
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Posted: #32
Solid work Suuma

There's no doubt that Charles Bronson is a former poster busting your balls for no reason.

I took the Raiders+1.5

Those trends, the fact they stayed out east and that oline is enough for me. I think Latavious Murray just got his feet wet off of injury as well, he'll be ready to roll Sunday.

Now couple that with the fact the Bucs beat up the hapless 49ers...Chip Kelly keeps sticking it to his own defense with that high pace garbage. Whether they score fast or produce his "staple" 3 n out drives, their defense suffers. I'm not fooled one bit by the bucs. They are still at the bottom of dvoa rankings and I don't expect them to gain any ground after playing the niners.


Now tell me how the Vikings don't steam roll the Bears MNF...


BOL on your plays
 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

For everyone curious about the 7 games on the 'tie-trend':

1989: Browns (9-6-1, made playoffs) lost 10-13 as -7 favs at Detroit (7-9)

2002: Steelers (10-5-1, made playoffs) lost 23-31 as -3 favs at Tennessee (11-5)

2008: Bengals (4-11-1) lost 10-27 as +7 dogs at Pittsburgh (12-4)

2008: Eagles (9-6-1, made playoffs) lost 7-36 as +1.5 dogs at Baltimore (11-1)

2013: Packers (8-7-1, made playoffs) lost 10-40 as +6.5 dogs at Detroit (7-9)

2014: Bengals (10-4-1, made playoffs) lost 0-27 as +3.5 dogs at Indianapolis (11-5)

2014: Panthers (7-8-1, made playoffs) lost 17-38  as +7 dogs at Green Bay (12-4)

6 of those teams made the playoffs that year and lost on the spread by 18.25 PPG after a tie.


Because a final score of a game ended in a tie therefore it dictates the next games results will be such   

Your stuff is Silly and Stupid

if Seattle loses it will be because the offense can't move the ball and score any points like we witnessed last night , it will have nothing to do with a final score ending in a tie .
 
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Posted: #34
Saints are now +2.5 and GB is +3 -105. Sharps pounded Saints down to 2.5 off the opener. Might see some buyback during the week.

ATL is seeing public and sharp support early it seems. Early money split is 93/7.

Need to dig into the GB/ATL matchup tomorrow.


 
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Posted: #35
SUMMA,

You hit the nail right on the head.....MysticRich!!

Theirs only one person that carries that much hate around.  Can't interact with any dignity or style.....just Bi tch...Bi tch...Bi tch!
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by Cooler999:

SUMMA,

You hit the nail right on the head.....MysticRich!!

Theirs only one person that carries that much hate around.  Can't interact with any dignity or style.....just Bi tch...Bi tch...Bi tch!


What    i'm not him but he must have had some good points if he's at odds with this bird brain 

The last 7 times i drank Coca Cola the Sun came out therefore i must be controlling the atmosphere Right ? 

Your looking for meaning and putting importance  on abstract benign things  , that have no relevence to anything 

Yea these stats are out there for Morons like you that have zero common sense 


 
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Posted: #37
Quote Originally Posted by roastedpeanuts:

Raiders 4-0 on road, Tampa is def good enough to put up 30 on Oakland, I have a small lean on Tampa as of today,  Atl loses and Tampa wins, tampa in first place, extra motivation.
Yes don't get me wrong Raiders are good on offense and beat every team on the road but the combined record of these teams is 10-16 no team with a winning record.

 
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Posted: #38
Quote Originally Posted by suuma:

Saints +3.5 -110 (2u)


Seahawks / Saints

Seahawks played five full quarters on SNF at Arizona. Their defense was on the field for 46 minutes and 21 seconds, which is a new NFL record. They were on the field for 90 defensive plays. Sherman couldn't walk without help after the game. Now they travel back to Seattle and will travel to NO next week to across two time zones and play an early east game at 11.00 AM their body clock time against a MUCH better offense than Arizona has along with a much better offensive line.

If this isn't enough for you, let me blow you away with this small sample-sized trend:

Road teams off a tie are 0-7 SUATS, losing by 19.3 PPG

The Saints barely lost at KC, a tough venue to play in. They actually outgained the Chiefs by 0.2 per play on the road. 0-2 on turnovers were the key to success - Chiefs had a pick six off a tipped ball that was precisely thrown by Brees. The Saints are averaging 36 PPG in three home games now playing against a banged up Seattle defense and an OL that is an absolute mess. I see the Saints setting the tone on offense.


Cardinals / Panthers

I've circled this game as a classic playoff revenge spot for the Cards back in July, but the new circumstances make me go with the Panthers in this one. First of all, the tie trend also applies for the Cardinals. Secondly, the Panthers come into this game off their bye (!) week, sitting at 1-5. If they lose this game, their season will be over and more importantly, they finally lose their standing as a strong NFC team. If this team has any pride, they will go all in on this one. The bye week should have helped to get their heads clear.

Teams off their bye week playing vs. a team off an overtime game are 34-15 SU. Line opened at -2.5, gonna watch line movement.


Packers / Falcons

Packers off 9+ days off rest and Falcons off overtime game and have TNF vs. TB (triple revenge) on deck. Teams off 9+ rest vs teams off overtime game from the Sunday before are 46-17 SU & 38-23 ATS. As dogs, these teams are 21-5 ATS. This trend also applies to the Panthers.

Waiting for +3 at solid juice.


Raiders / Bucs

Very interesting. Raiders are on b2b road games, but their situation is much better than TB's. The Raiders stay at Central Florida and don't travel back home while the Bucs just come back from their west coast trip. No body clock issues for the Raiders. Also, pacific teams playing b2b east coast games are 21-6 ATS since 1989 and 7-1 ATS since 2002. Matchup-wise, I honestly don't see how the Bucs defense is going to stop this Raiders offense.

Line opened at +1 and is on his way up. Could be a sweet ML play.
I love the Buc's and the Green Bay Packers, gl ff.
 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by MrScampy:



Because a final score of a game ended in a tie therefore it dictates the next games results will be such   

Your stuff is Silly and Stupid

if Seattle loses it will be because the offense can't move the ball and score any points like we witnessed last night , it will have nothing to do with a final score ending in a tie .

The score ending in a tie isnt the factor....the key is the fact that AN ENTIRE EXTRA QUARTER OF PROFESSIONAL FOOTBALL WAS PLAYED, 18 extra plays for the Seattle DEFENSE, 17 extra plays for the Seattle OFFENSE..all of which take a toll on the bodies of those players and the ONLY possible way for the above to happen is for the game to end in a tie...I mean come on man, did you see Richard Sherman after the game last night? Did you see the pressure on Wilson during the OT period due to an already awful offensive line being completely gassed??? They fly home late, have film and trainer meetngs today, tomorrow completely off, Wednesday a limited contact practice that most injured will sit out, Thursday game planning and padded practice, Friday a 2 hour practice, then travel across the country to prepare for a game that is 3 hours ahead of their normal body clock in New Orleans.....If all of that leads you to believe that SEA should be -3.5 or -3 then feel free to pound that awful line
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by ff99l1:

I love the Buc's and the Green Bay Packers, gl ff.
Also like the cowboys.
 
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Posted: #41
Quote Originally Posted by MrScampy:

0-7 SUATS, losing by 19.3 PPG 

This is such a small sample go back and look at the teams that produced this stat  that would be probably explain losing by 19.3 
because they probably are a bunch of 2 to 5 win teams a year that lose by this margin on a somewhat  regular basis 

you're such a prick. If you dont like the stat then just be quiet no need for your input. at least someone is putting in work and giving people info..what they do with the info is up to them..next time if i see you asking for stats or posting any then be ready for some bs talk like what you are doing.
 
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Posted: #42

Thanks Suuma. Food for thought.


Good luck!

It ain't over til it's over
 
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Posted: #43
Now Now Now 

These little Hissy Fits of yours with these stats are very unbecoming  
 
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Posted: #44
The man didn't think your stats have any value i tend to agree with him no need to be mad about it  
 
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Posted: #45
Didn't have any value my behind! The guy disagreed merely for the sake of disagreeing and nothing else. Every trend has merit and the bottom line is if you don't like trends or stats, then stay the hell away from threads that contain them. Both you and scumpy should do the entire forum a favor and disappear. 
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by pinballwizard:

Didn't have any value my behind! The guy disagreed merely for the sake of disagreeing and nothing else. Every trend has merit and the bottom line is if you don't like trends or stats, then stay the hell away from threads that contain them. Both you and scumpy should do the entire forum a favor and disappear. 
 


    What hostilty 

 
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Posted: #47
Good info.
 
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Posted: #48
Quote Originally Posted by MrScampy:



Because a final score of a game ended in a tie therefore it dictates the next games results will be such   

Your stuff is Silly and Stupid

if Seattle loses it will be because the offense can't move the ball and score any points like we witnessed last night , it will have nothing to do with a final score ending in a tie .
Could it be because their defense played 5 full quarters? See, thats what happens in a tie game...thats the key to the stat.

You cant be that ignorant, can you? 

suuma 
 
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Posted: #49
Suuma,

I think you are doing such a great job..I don't know of anyone else who would do the work that you do just to be able to give picks to everyone and not charging a cent..Keep up the great work..

I will continue to follow you..
Screw the idiots who talk trash.. You notice that the people who are making the negative comments are hear each week waiting for your picks.. 
 
 
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Posted: #50
These were some of the picks that stood out to me at first look as well. Here's my reasoning.

Seahawks Saints. Seattles offense has been bad and their offensive line is worse. If you can't win in the trenches you can't win in the NFL. On top of the saints have been quietly playing good football this year, winNing and covering on the road as well as in the Dome. Saints offense wins this battle and I would be suprised if they don't win outright. Wrong team favored here and the line will keep dropping.

Cardinals Panthers.

Wow has this team changed since last year. Same could be said for Carolina I guess. But I trust Cam more than Palmer right now. Palmer is on the verge of death with every sack he is terrible. The only thing working for the cards right now is david johnson. Coaching sucks and so does their offense. Panthers off a bye smelling blood in the water. Not saying they make the playoffs but Carolina ain't no losing this game at home. 



Packers Falcons

What a spot one team over achieving and one team under. The last time I remember Rogers in this dome he was dropping 50 on Matty ice then going on to win the super bowl. Atlanta has zero defense so teams with good qb's give them fits. (See Phil Rivs) Rogers +3 . Now here's where I differ. I'm not sure gb is playing well enough to cover this spread. I actually think the value is on the Birds here since they just lost to the bolts and the week before to the Seahawks. I think Atlanta is the better team and they're a team home. They won't let this game slip away.

Atlanta and over 
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