this system has a winning record in all weeks 1 to 17 in last 20 years.
what it means is that if you break it down by weeks, it has a winning record over 20 years in weeks 1, 2, 3, ...
not that it wins every week for 20 years (340 weeks would be too much)
now i will try to capp the system by choosing a play or two every week.
this week the plays should be oakland +4, cards +3.5 and rams +6...
but i will only go with oakland +4 and arizona +3.5
those are the official plays...rams are not a play...there are some system reasons to avoid the rams.
almost forgot to say what the system is lol...its simple...
fade favorites of more than 3 pts if they have a divisional game with line pk or dog the following week. its safe to assume that buffalo, washington (and giants) will be underdogs next week.
overall record if we faded these faves since 1990: 307-173 ATS
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
this system has a winning record in all weeks 1 to 17 in last 20 years.
what it means is that if you break it down by weeks, it has a winning record over 20 years in weeks 1, 2, 3, ...
not that it wins every week for 20 years (340 weeks would be too much)
now i will try to capp the system by choosing a play or two every week.
this week the plays should be oakland +4, cards +3.5 and rams +6...
but i will only go with oakland +4 and arizona +3.5
those are the official plays...rams are not a play...there are some system reasons to avoid the rams.
almost forgot to say what the system is lol...its simple...
fade favorites of more than 3 pts if they have a divisional game with line pk or dog the following week. its safe to assume that buffalo, washington (and giants) will be underdogs next week.
overall record if we faded these faves since 1990: 307-173 ATS
ok, the initial system has no plays for week 3. but as i said, i will try to cap a few other systems that have a winning record in the long run. i am not interested in small systems with 20, 50, 100 games. those samples are just too small imo. and i am not going to bet all games that fit one particular system. i will just bet on those that make more sense.
system no 2: go against favorites before a dog game after being a dog last week.
there are several games that fit this system but i will only bet on one of them...
carolina is a favorite this week, they were a dog last week and they will be a dog next week in chicago...
fading these favorites gives us a 541-394 ats record.
so my play for this week is jacksonville +3.5
as i said, there are some reasons why i eliminate other plays, like when i eliminated rams last week.
i will probably test another system and have 1-2 more plays this week...
goodluck.
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ok, the initial system has no plays for week 3. but as i said, i will try to cap a few other systems that have a winning record in the long run. i am not interested in small systems with 20, 50, 100 games. those samples are just too small imo. and i am not going to bet all games that fit one particular system. i will just bet on those that make more sense.
system no 2: go against favorites before a dog game after being a dog last week.
there are several games that fit this system but i will only bet on one of them...
carolina is a favorite this week, they were a dog last week and they will be a dog next week in chicago...
fading these favorites gives us a 541-394 ats record.
so my play for this week is jacksonville +3.5
as i said, there are some reasons why i eliminate other plays, like when i eliminated rams last week.
i will probably test another system and have 1-2 more plays this week...
this system has a winning record in all weeks 1 to 17 in last 20 years.
what it means is that if you break it down by weeks, it has a winning record over 20 years in weeks 1, 2, 3, ...
not that it wins every week for 20 years (340 weeks would be too much)
now i will try to capp the system by choosing a play or two every week.
this week the plays should be oakland +4, cards +3.5 and rams +6...
but i will only go with oakland +4 and arizona +3.5
those are the official plays...rams are not a play...there are some system reasons to avoid the rams.
almost forgot to say what the system is lol...its simple...
fade favorites of more than 3 pts if they have a divisional game with line pk or dog the following week. its safe to assume that buffalo, washington (and giants) will be underdogs next week.
overall record if we faded these faves since 1990: 307-173 ATS
First off, Arizona is not a dog @ Seattle. They are -3.5, not +3.5 so there goes that pick. Just thought I'd also mention that as bad as Sea is on the road (0-2), they are much better at home. Just think back to their last two home games vs N.O. and S.L, two wins. So in spite of how it looks on paper, I'm looking at Sea +3* as a potential play.
Oak as a dog is often very appealing (2-0 this year already) but now they face the Jets, a premier team. I don't trust them. Personally, I think the Jets win and cover.
Rams as you said are not a play for you, but just as far as the system goes...I don't envy them facing a pissed off Balt team this week, not to mention the short week. Rams should be 0-3 after Sunday.
BOL
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Quote Originally Posted by allstarbets:
this system has a winning record in all weeks 1 to 17 in last 20 years.
what it means is that if you break it down by weeks, it has a winning record over 20 years in weeks 1, 2, 3, ...
not that it wins every week for 20 years (340 weeks would be too much)
now i will try to capp the system by choosing a play or two every week.
this week the plays should be oakland +4, cards +3.5 and rams +6...
but i will only go with oakland +4 and arizona +3.5
those are the official plays...rams are not a play...there are some system reasons to avoid the rams.
almost forgot to say what the system is lol...its simple...
fade favorites of more than 3 pts if they have a divisional game with line pk or dog the following week. its safe to assume that buffalo, washington (and giants) will be underdogs next week.
overall record if we faded these faves since 1990: 307-173 ATS
First off, Arizona is not a dog @ Seattle. They are -3.5, not +3.5 so there goes that pick. Just thought I'd also mention that as bad as Sea is on the road (0-2), they are much better at home. Just think back to their last two home games vs N.O. and S.L, two wins. So in spite of how it looks on paper, I'm looking at Sea +3* as a potential play.
Oak as a dog is often very appealing (2-0 this year already) but now they face the Jets, a premier team. I don't trust them. Personally, I think the Jets win and cover.
Rams as you said are not a play for you, but just as far as the system goes...I don't envy them facing a pissed off Balt team this week, not to mention the short week. Rams should be 0-3 after Sunday.
First off, Arizona is not a dog @ Seattle. They are -3.5, not +3.5 so there goes that pick. Just thought I'd also mention that as bad as Sea is on the road (0-2), they are much better at home. Just think back to their last two home games vs N.O. and S.L, two wins. So in spite of how it looks on paper, I'm looking at Sea +3* as a potential play.
Oak as a dog is often very appealing (2-0 this year already) but now they face the Jets, a premier team. I don't trust them. Personally, I think the Jets win and cover.
Rams as you said are not a play for you, but just as far as the system goes...I don't envy them facing a pissed off Balt team this week, not to mention the short week. Rams should be 0-3 after Sunday.
BOL
Dude, that is last week play that he won....this week is only Jacksonville +3.5
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Quote Originally Posted by TomE:
First off, Arizona is not a dog @ Seattle. They are -3.5, not +3.5 so there goes that pick. Just thought I'd also mention that as bad as Sea is on the road (0-2), they are much better at home. Just think back to their last two home games vs N.O. and S.L, two wins. So in spite of how it looks on paper, I'm looking at Sea +3* as a potential play.
Oak as a dog is often very appealing (2-0 this year already) but now they face the Jets, a premier team. I don't trust them. Personally, I think the Jets win and cover.
Rams as you said are not a play for you, but just as far as the system goes...I don't envy them facing a pissed off Balt team this week, not to mention the short week. Rams should be 0-3 after Sunday.
BOL
Dude, that is last week play that he won....this week is only Jacksonville +3.5
First off, Arizona is not a dog @ Seattle. They are -3.5, not +3.5 so there goes that pick. Just thought I'd also mention that as bad as Sea is on the road (0-2), they are much better at home. Just think back to their last two home games vs N.O. and S.L, two wins. So in spite of how it looks on paper, I'm looking at Sea +3* as a potential play.
Oak as a dog is often very appealing (2-0 this year already) but now they face the Jets, a premier team. I don't trust them. Personally, I think the Jets win and cover.
Rams as you said are not a play for you, but just as far as the system goes...I don't envy them facing a pissed off Balt team this week, not to mention the short week. Rams should be 0-3 after Sunday.
BOL
those were last weeks plays bud
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Quote Originally Posted by TomE:
First off, Arizona is not a dog @ Seattle. They are -3.5, not +3.5 so there goes that pick. Just thought I'd also mention that as bad as Sea is on the road (0-2), they are much better at home. Just think back to their last two home games vs N.O. and S.L, two wins. So in spite of how it looks on paper, I'm looking at Sea +3* as a potential play.
Oak as a dog is often very appealing (2-0 this year already) but now they face the Jets, a premier team. I don't trust them. Personally, I think the Jets win and cover.
Rams as you said are not a play for you, but just as far as the system goes...I don't envy them facing a pissed off Balt team this week, not to mention the short week. Rams should be 0-3 after Sunday.
Yikes lol I will sit back and on this one...I am all for tailing a new system, until it lands on betting Jacksonville against Cam-rolina. Don't have to svck Cam's d!ck to see how many of them Jacksonville is svcking.
I'd need 7.5 to even think about the Jags this week...will probably lay last minute money on Carolina with the local...
That's how money is made
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Yikes lol I will sit back and on this one...I am all for tailing a new system, until it lands on betting Jacksonville against Cam-rolina. Don't have to svck Cam's d!ck to see how many of them Jacksonville is svcking.
I'd need 7.5 to even think about the Jags this week...will probably lay last minute money on Carolina with the local...
Interesting system. I'm just wondering how you can speculate what the line will be the following week, and then assume some games are plays this week, when they might end up not being "system" picks
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Interesting system. I'm just wondering how you can speculate what the line will be the following week, and then assume some games are plays this week, when they might end up not being "system" picks
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TomE
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