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It's NFL Playoff Time......................2014/2015

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Let's start the party...........it's playoff time......................

POWER RATING 1....................................................

This power rating is a bit pass heavy, counts offense and defense equal and uses end of the year stats.

1. Packers 11.21
2. Seattle 9.92
3. Denver 9.79
4. Dallas 9.26
5. Pats 4.3
6. Bengals 3
7. Lions 2.73
8. Ravens 2.56
9. Steelers 2.22
10. Colts 1.61
11. Panthers (-1.18)
12a  Zona/ave of all QB'S (-1.84)
12b Zona/Stanton (-2.31)
12c Zona/Lindley (-5.63)

We won't adjust these ratings throughout the playoffs, but will add a playoff only rating in the SB.

To get a line subtract the two numbers and add 3 points for home field. With a 6 point difference to the closing line we have a play.

MY LINES.......................................
Dallas -9.53 over Lions
Steelers -2.66 over Ravens
Colts -1.61 over Bengals
Panthers -7.45 over Zona/Lindley


VALUE RATINGS.....................................................

Each teams value is based on their play on the field being better or worse than the final scores of their games.

These teams are undervalued meaning their play on the field is better than the final score suggest.

1. Packers +2.58
2. Dallas +2.07
3. Denver +1.79
4. Bengals +1.69
5. Seattle +1.17
6. Panthers +1.01
7. Lions +.29

These teams are overvalued, meaning their play on the field is worse than the final score suggest.

8. Steelers _2.03
9. Zona -2.53
10. Colts -3.95
11. Ravens -4.13
12. Pats -5.38

No team since 1978 the first year of the 16 game schedule has won the SB overvalued by 4 points or more.

Teams overvalued by 4 points or more are great fades off any ATS win and teams undervalued by 4 points or more great teams to back,  2-0 ATS last year.

Can produce strong ATS records backing teams with a 5 pt diff in value, last year 1-1 ATS.

Bengals by 5.64 over Colts
Panthers by 3,54 over Zona
Steelers by 2.1 over Ravens
Dallas by 1.78 over Lions

Our first value mismatch play..............Bengals over Colts
 
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POWER RATINGS 2

This power rating is geared towards balance , rewards better defenses, and teams that don't turn the ball over on offense. Charts team week-to-week and finds the average per week. Teams resting starters games get thrown-out.

1. Seattle 13.29
2. Denver 10.5
3. Dallas 9.78
4. Packers 8.91
5. Lions 6.36
6. Pats 6.24
7. Ravens 4.29
8. Steelers 2.7
9. Bengals 2.64
10. Panthers 1.68
11. Colts .36
12. Zona (-.93)

Colts -.72 over Bengals 
Steelers -1.41 over Ravens
Dallas -6.42 over Lions
Panthers -5.61 over Zona

A 6 point diff to closing line gives us a play.


VALUE RATINGS.........................................

Undervalued Teams
1. Seattle +4.55
2. Lions +3.91
3. Panthers +3.87
4. Denver +2.62
5. Dallas +2.59
6. Bengals +1.27
7. Packers +.28

overvalued teams
8. Zona -1.64
9. Ravens -1.97
10. Steelers -3.09
11. Pats -4.57
12. Colts -7.29


VALUE MISMATCHES....................

Bengals 8.56 over Colts
Panthers 5.51 over Zona 
Lions 1.32 over Dallas
Ravens 1.12 over Steelers 

We have 2 plays here...........Bengals over Colts and Panthers over Zona.

Bengals over the Colts is our first  strong situation of this years playoffs, if Colts cover that spread we'd then have a best bet fade off a ATS win next round. If the Colts play Denver my line would be ..........Denver -13.14, we likely would have a game of the year type play.


 A bit busy now, should have more time new years day....More to come........................................
 
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Thanks for your hard work and sharing.  I look forward to your post this time of the year.  Based on your early research who do you have in the Super Bowl and who do you like to win it all?  

I am in a game where you rank all 12 teams from 1-12 with 12 being my pick to win the Super Bowl.  How do you rank them 1-12?

Thanks for your input.

 
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Quote Originally Posted by bookiekilla:

Thanks for your hard work and sharing.  I look forward to your post this time of the year.  Based on your early
research who do you have in the Super Bowl and who do you like to win it all?  I am in a game where you rank all 12 teams from 1-12 with 12 being my pick to win the Super Bowl.  How do you rank them 1-12?Thanks for your input.


He's ranked them already above. See the 1-12 rankings.


 
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Appreciate your research
 
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Quote Originally Posted by bookiekilla:

Thanks for your hard work and sharing.  I look forward to your post this time of the year.  Based on your early research who do you have in the Super Bowl and who do you like to win it all?  

I am in a game where you rank all 12 teams from 1-12 with 12 being my pick to win the Super Bowl.  How do you rank them 1-12?

Thanks for your input.


Seattle would be the best, most complete team after 16 games. I like Seattle to win SB but of coarse we must be aware of the hot team from the wild card round which has been happening  often since 1997. 

I'll be reporting on that after each round.
 
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Of the 72 teams to make the SB since 1978 just 6 (8.3%) finished with a rating under 3 in power rating 1.

91.7% of the teams in the SB were 3 or better.


79 Rams (-1.45)
86 Denver 2.35
94 Chargers 2.56
2007 Giants (-2.12)
2008 Zona 2.3
2012 Ravens 2.68

It's not impossible but highly unlikely a team under 3 gets to the SB. Think of all the teams since 1978 that tried and failed, very possibly over 100 teams.

 Only Warner with Zona QB'd a team in a previous SB, but a different team.

Only Denver in 86 would have been amoung the favorites to win the conference. 
 
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Posted: #8
Best playoff thread on Covers...been following for a few years.
 
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Posted: #9
Thank You 
 
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Since 2000 there have been 13 no.1 seeds make  the SB.

12 of those 13 rated 6 or higher in power ratings 1, only the 2006 Bears 5.14 rated lower. No no.1 seed below 5 made the SB.

10 of 13 rated 7.5 or higher.
9 of 13 rated 8.48 or higher.

The average no.1 seed to make the SB since 2000 rated 10.25............................





 
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From 1990 to 1999............. 10 no.1 seeds made the SB.

9 of the 10 rated 6 or higher.
9 of 10 rated 7.5 or higher
9 of 10 rated 8.38 or higher

The ave no.1 seed rated 12.02


From 1990 to 2013................13 no.2 seeds made the SB.

10 OF 13 rated 5 or higher.
9 of 13 rated over 7.5
8 of 13 rated 8.46 or higher 

The ave no.2 seed rated 8.72........................................


The info strongly suggest.............weak no.1 and no.2 seeds don't make many SB's.........................................
 
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Seahawks and Dallas playing on very high unsustainable levels and due a regression.

Dominate, strong teams like Seattle can beat regression , not saying they will but they can.

Weaker teams like Dallas, not likely. Dallas is very deep in regression coming into this wild card round, having requalified as a power ratings fade last week VS Skins.

I'd look to fade Dallas and take the under.

I nice 4 team parlay would be Panthers, Bengals, Lions and under. In the 1st half and game.


Seattle is deep in regression as well, but I won't fade them, may back-down on them but not fade them.

The best case is we come big after a ATS loss, which the Seahawks will likely get at some point since being the defending champs and having a huge homefield advantage will make for  a juiced line.

Possible Seahawks may have to survive a close game, and they likely will. But then again there is evidence that teams like Seattle can continue dominating into the playoffs. 
 
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Posted: #13
nice  BOL
 
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Posted: #14
what happened to your no/cincy superbowl prediction?
 
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Since 2000 there have been 11 SB's with at least one no.1 seed of 14 played.

Since 1990 there have been 19 SB's with at least one no.1 seed of 24 played.

One of the two no.1 seed almost always gets to the SB.

21 of 23 no.1 seeds to make the SB since 1990 rated 6 or higher in Power Rating 1.

Seattle 9.92
Pats 4.3


Seattle also has other common denominators of past SB Champs and the Pats do not.

Seattle has common denominators of past Repeat SB Champs.

The info strongly suggest the higher probability will be Seattle the no.1 seed making the SB in 2015 ..................................
 
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Posted: #17
Thanks for the info Claw. Much appreciated. You should chime in on the tennis forum during the Aussie Open as well. 
 
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Posted: #18
Claw not having A.J.Green make a difference in your Bengals pick? Thanks BOL 
 
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SUPER BOWL TEAMS FROM THE WILD CARD ROUND

Beginning in 1997 is when things took a sudden turn to teams from the wild card round making and winning SB's. There have been 11 teams from the wild card round make the SB in 17 SB's.

Those 11 teams are 10-0-1 ATS in the SB, and with half a brain one could have been a perfect 11-0 ATS as the only team to not cover the closing line, the 99 Titans opened at +7.5 and stayed there for a few days.

8 of the 11 teams won the SB, some as big dogs.

Let's break-down those 11 teams in Power Rating 1 and we can divide them into strong, mediocre and weak teams.

STRONG TEAMS...................
97 Denver +8.51
2000 Ravens +11.94
2005 Steelers +12.49
2010 Packers +11.57

These 4 wild card round teams were right there with the ave no.1 and no.2 seeds that make SB'S, not really surprise teams at all, but very strong teams that for whatever reason could not get the bye.

MEDIOCRE TEAM.........................
2006 Colts +5.84

WEAK TEAMS.......................................
99 Titans +3.32
2003 Panthers +3.49
2007 Giants (-2.12)
2008 Zona +2.3
2011 Giants +3.09
2012 Ravens +2.68

5 of the 8 teams that won the SB rated 5.84 or higher, the 6 teams below 4 were just 3-3 at winning the SB.

Of 46 no. 1 & 2 seeds to make the SB since 1990, just 4 were below 5, those 5 winning teams were right there with past no.1 and no 2 seeds.

That leaves us with 6 weak teams.

Going back to 1978, the first year of the 16 game schedule when the league also changed the rules to open-up the passing game and increase scoring, there have been 7 additional weak teams make the SB, under 4.55,  mostly bye teams but  does include the very first wild card team to win the SB, 1980 Raiders at +4.55.

Are there any common denominators of these weak teams ? 

The media is very powerful at shaping and forming your perception of sports. The first thing a pundit will mention is back the team with a proven winner at QB,  many go their entire lives believing this.

HERE'S THE HARD REALITY.....................................

I'll list the teams with the starting QB'S playoff record next to them.

1979 Rams (-1.45), Ferragamo 0-0, never been in a playoff game, yet guided a weak team to the SB.
1980 Raiders +4.55, Plunket, 0-0 considered a bust for the 1st player taken in the draft prior to winning the SB. 
83 Raiders +3.87, Plunkett 5-1, SB winner
86 Denver +2.25 , Elway 0-1
96 Chargers, Stan H. 1-1
96 Pats +4.2, Bledsoe 0-1
2001 Pats +3.22 , Brady 0-0
99 Titans +3.22 Mcnair 0-0
2003 Panthers +3.49 Delhomme 0-0
2007 Giants (-2.12) Eli, 0-2 considered a disappointment for the no.1 overall player taken in the draft prior to winning the SB.
2008 Zona +2.3, Warner 5-2 SB winner
2011 Giants +3.09, Eli 4-3 SB winner
2012 Ravens +2.68, Flacco 5-4 some playoff success with 2 AFC championship losses to his credit, but he got there twice.

Of the 13 weak teams to make the SB just 3 were QB'd by a previous SB winning QB, and 4 of 13 by a QB with some playoff success when we add Flacco.

9 of the 13 QB's had no prior playoff success (1-5 record in playoff games) ...................... 5 of the 13 QB'S had never been in a NFL playoff game prior to taking a weak team to the SB.

There have been more QB's who've never played in a playoff game (5) do it then previous  SB winning QB's (3).

That folks is the power the media has to shape and form your beliefs, and some of those beliefs you'll  carry with you the rest of your life.





 

 
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Posted: #20
If we are looking for that surprise wild card round team, just 2 of the 13 finished in the negative, there will always be exception,  11 of the 13 finished in the positive below +4.55.

That leaves us with.............Bengals, Lions, Ravens, Steelers, Colts.

We can rule-out the Colts for being extremely overvalued, those teams have never won a SB since 1978.

If you wanted a surprise team from the wild card round I'd pick Bengals or Lions over Steelers and Ravens..............it's what's supported over history.

You could make a case for Dallas being a strong team from the WC round at +9.26............... HOWEVER....... Dallas lacks the other common denominators that most all strong teams have that win SB's including the strong teams from the wild card round. 

Now, that does not mean there will be a surprise team from the WC rouind.............only means.........IF ... and that's a big IF there is a surprise team, and there very well may-not be one, that I haven't been able to figure-out yet. 

When we look back over those 13 weak teams we see 3 times they made the SB in back-to-back seasons, 79-80, 2007-08, and most recent 2011-12, in each case a weak team did not make the SB in the next year or 2 years after and this being the 2cd year after the most recent is maybe suggesting we don't get another weak team from the WC round or any round. 

On average we do get a weak team every 2.77 years, which seems quite often.

In the 19 SB's from 1978 to 1996 there were 7 weak teams make the SB or one every 2.71 years.

In the 17 years from 1997 to 2013 there were 6 weak teams make the SB or one every 2.83 years.

It's been almost an identical rate over the years, they just happen to come from the WC round beginning in 1997.
 
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Nice info, Thanks !
 
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Quote Originally Posted by LilManPJ:

Claw not having A.J.Green make a difference in your Bengals pick? Thanks BOL 

I'd take the Bengals today regardless of Green. Obviously injuries can throw a monkey wrench into the methods, but they have won many times with injuries..


 
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Posted: #23
We're in the books with our first value mismatch winner.

Panthers did lose 1st half, but the beauty of losing the 1st game of a parlay we can replay the 1st halves with Bengals, Lions and Lions/Boys under. And another with Bengals ML 1st half.


I'd ride the Bengals today, this is a great oppurtunity to fade an extremely overvalued team in the Colts. These type teams rarely ever will finish with a winning ATS record in the playoffs.

And are great plays fading them off any ATS win, if the Colts cover today, the Ravens winning yesterday sets this up perfectly for next week with Colts playing one of our top teams in the power ratings..........Denver.


Good Luck............................................
 
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PLAYIN THE PASS GAME LIKE INDY ,,U TAKE THE PASS AWAY AND WE HAVE A DIFFERT TYPE OF GAME,,LOKKING FOR LUCK TO GIVE US AT LEASE 3 BAD THROWS TO THE WRONG MAN,,

BOL 2 DAY,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,

 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

POWER RATINGS 2This power rating is geared towards balance , rewards better defenses, and teams that don't turn the ball over on offense. Charts team week-to-week and finds the average per week. Teams resting starters games get thrown-out.1. Seattle 13.292. Denver 10.53. Dallas 9.784. Packers 8.915. Lions 6.366. Pats 6.247. Ravens 4.298. Steelers 2.79. Bengals 2.6410. Panthers 1.6811. Colts .3612. Zona (-.93)Colts -.72 over Bengals Steelers -1.41 over RavensDallas -6.42 over LionsPanthers -5.61 over ZonaA 6 point diff to closing line gives us a play.VALUE RATINGS.........................................Undervalued Teams1. Seattle +4.552. Lions +3.913. Panthers +3.874. Denver +2.625. Dallas +2.596. Bengals +1.277. Packers +.28overvalued teams8. Zona -1.649. Ravens -1.9710. Steelers -3.0911. Pats -4.5712. Colts -7.29VALUE MISMATCHES....................Bengals 8.56 over ColtsPanthers 5.51 over Zona Lions 1.32 over DallasRavens 1.12 over Steelers We have 2 plays here...........Bengals over Colts and Panthers over Zona.Bengals over the Colts is our first  strong situation of this years playoffs, if Colts cover that spread we'd then have a best bet fade off a ATS win next round. If the Colts play Denver my line would be ..........Denver -13.14, we likely would have a game of the year type play. A bit busy now, should have more time new years day....More to come........................................

What are your best picks today.nfl thanks
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