Posted:
#101
POWER RATING 1............................................
Seahawks 9.92
Pats 4.3
Seahawks -5.62
I have every SB broken-down back to 1977, someday hopefully I'll have every one. Well, I don't yet have the strike year of 1987 because scab players played a few games and those need to be taken-out of the year-end stats.
Since 1977............my lines favorite is.....24-12 SU, 66.7%
2 PT or less favorites....3-5 SU
2.01 to 5 PT fav....6-2 SU
Over a 5 PT fav...........15-5 SU
6 PT diff to the closing line..............9-3-1 ATS.
Now, giving bonus points for the better defense and the team with fewer TO's on offense, similar to how power rating 2 works.
Seahawks receive 2.71 bonus points..................
defense adjusted line...............Seahawks -8.33 over Pats
This method will not work with the surprise wild card round teams who are weak statistical teams, these are weak teams who just catch fire at the right time, but with SB's involving bye teams it's been money.................................
16-6 SU
3 pts to 5.99 diff to closing line .....5-1 ATS
6 pt diff or better...........................9-2 ATS
Over 80% winners ATS since 1977 with at least a 3 pt diff to closing line and 5-0 ATS since 2000.
My defense adjusted line's favorite is a dog on the closing line.
4-3 SU...........6-1 ATS
6 pt diff or better.....6-1 ATS
The 3 SU losers were favored by less than 3 pts on my line.
The remaining 4 teams were favored by 4.77 pts or better............all 4 won SU.
1988 Bengals -2.75 over 9ers, lost 20-16 as 9ers drive 92 yards in the final minute or whatever it was, won ATS as a 7 pt dog.
1998 Atlanta -1.39 over Denver, lost 34-19, lost ATS as a 7 pt dog
2004 Eagles -1.15 over Pats , won ATS, lost SU 24-21
1990 Giants -4.77 over Bills, won 20-19
2002 Bucs -15.31 over Raiders, won 48-21`
2009 Saints -9.79 over Colts , won 31-17
2013 Seahawks -12.5 over Denver , won 43-8
The only loss ATS , 98 Denver was amoung the best teams in history in power rating 2 and completely dominate in the playoffs ...............
PR 2 playoff only line ....Denver -38.12
PR1 playoff only line.......Denver -10.05
Not the case with the Pats here, the Pats are a regression fade off their big win in AFC championship game and they are a fade off 2 other regression methods, while the Seahawks are a go for off a regression method......................................... back teams undervalued by 4 points or more in the regular season off ATS loss.
WOW, it's one-sided boys, everything lines-up on the Seahawks.
Very, very, very high probability Seahawks are going home 2 time SB Champs ............................
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