POWER RATING 1.....Playoff Only Line.......................
Pats 16.24
Seahawks 12.77
Pats -3.47
Since 1997 the 1st year the teams from the WC round began their assult on the SB......13-3-1 ATS.
I went back and looked up the 3 losses to see if any common denominators of those losses could be found.......and the result...................yep.
2001 SB
Ravens 18.06
Giants 29.39
Giants -11.33.................... actual line Ravens -3
2007 SB
Colts 6.04
Bears 5.45
Colts -.59........................... actual line Colts -7
2006 SB
Seahawks 21.25
Steelers 18.21
Seahawks -3.04.......................actual line Steelers -4
In 2001 SB Giants coming off a 41-0 NFC Championship game win or 6.68 times their regular season power rating
Ravens 16-3 win was 1.09 times PR.
Giants ave per game beat their PR by 4.16 throughout the playoffs
Ravens by 1.3
Giants due a regression coming off a game over 4.5 times PR.
2007 SB
Bears coming off a 39-14 win in NFC Championship game or 4.47 times their PR.
Colts coming off a 38-34 win in AFC championship game or .68 times PR.
Bears right at he doorstep of regression with 4.5 being the number.
And Colts very close to the number to back a team at .6.
Value rating in playoffs ......Colts by 5.27 over Bears .....Colts play on the field throughout the playoffs much better than the final score of games while the Bears were not. A 5 pt diff is nothing but money.......................
2006 SB
Seattle was one of the rare teams to lose ATS when both regular season and playoff PR had them ATS.
What happened in this SB ?...........Penalties..........this game had they highest difference in penalty yards of any SB , and it's the only SB up to that year and likely still is that the better statistical team in the game lost, because of the penalties .
Some years after that SB the refs went to Seattle to apoligize to the fans for all the bad calls they made which cost Seattle the SB win.
The horrendous bad call of holding on tackle Locklear when Hasslebeck pass to the 1 yard line, web sites reported if that was holding then Pit held 8 times and was not called once. It was widely reported about all the bad calls in the game which cost Seattle the win.
That basically leaves us with 2 losses and both those losses have the exact same theme as this season.
Pats coming off a 45-7 win in the AFC Championship game or 8.14 times their regular season PR.
Seahawks coming off 6 pt win or .6 times PR.
What the info tells us is the playoff only lines were inflated due to playing sssoooo very far over the teams abilities, again this points to pure luck, yea it's the Pats that got far luckier then Seahawks.
And I've also broken this down in the 80's and 90's and it points to the same results
This year's SB presents a great oppurtunity to back the Better Team at an extreme discounted price, and the better team in the perfect spot you couldn't ask for this game to be set-up any better.
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