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It's NFL Playoff Time......................2014/2015

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Posted: #51
Going to buy half off on the Colts and go for a middle.

Colts +10 (-120) --- 6 units to win 5 units
 
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Posted: #52
Gracias
 
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Posted: #53
Only buying off because with hitting the other games on Ravens and Dallas  parlays and a best bet play on Denver that's quite a bit riding on Denver 1st half and game.

Worth a shot at the middle with so much riding plus we donn't have a 6 pt diff to closing line .

But Still like Denver to cover.
 
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Posted: #54
Denver 2cd half -7 (+100) over Colts --- 5 units to win 5 units
 
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Posted: #55
Ride Denver 2cd half...............................
 
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Posted: #56
wow denver looks like hot garbage
 
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Posted: #57
 
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Posted: #58
Boy oh boy oh boy, Manning reported with a torn quad since the SD game. And to be his plant leg to boot.

That's a problem with injuries this late in season, teams often do play games with these things. They kept that under-wraps the entire time, well they did report he had a thigh injury.

Sometimes they'll report a bad injury and the player plays like superman, maybe a valuable lesson can be learnt from this.

A reported injury kept quiet may be more serious than being reported while a injury being reported as more serious may not be as serious.

Manning did not play well last few games of regular season but Denver did play well as a team, which is somewhat common and many teams have been successful in the playoffs as such. But that is a case of not playing well which can have regressions, not a case of playing poorly because of an injury.

Manning was 6-21 in passes over 5 yards in Colts game at one point in game.

Rodgers had a 125 QBPR, I missed a good part of the game and most of 2cd half, so did not get to see how Rodgers played.

I know he was hobling around in the Detroit game in week 17, he seemed to pass ok but not run as well. He seemed to run a little better in Dallas game from what I saw in 1st half, but the true test was 2cd half and I missed most of that.

Hey, the Denver loss is only 1 loss and we did quite well with the Power Ratings last couple of weeks in regular season with powerhouse teams clinching divisions and only lost with a pretty serious injury.

A classic example of in injuies, we backed both Packers and Denver in games needed to clinch divisions and won both with the injuried QB's.

Injuries are tough to call, I've seen them win and lose, not sure I seen anything about those situations to make much out of them.

 
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Posted: #59
NFC & AFC CONFERENCE CHAMPIONSHIP GAMES

My Lines....................Power Ratings 1

Seahawks -1.71 over Packers
Pats -5.69 over Colts

With the huge line movement prior to Denver/Colts game we've had no 6 pt diff to closing line  with my lines yet Which is quite rare.

Seahawks need to move to -8 to give us a 6 pt diff.




Power Ratings 2.................................

Seahawks -7.38 over Packers
Pats -8.88 over Colts

Not very likely we see a 6 pt diff here to the closing line.


My early take would be ....to back Packers because I have Seattle to win SB on futures and with Seattle no. 1 in one power rating and GB no.1 in the other, it looks pretty strong possibility one of those 2 teams wins the SB.

By backing Packers with the points I could win both the points and Seattle futures, we could lose both but that seems highly unlikely a AFC team will beat Seattle if they cover against Packers.

Seattle's pass defense is not as good as last season, they held Cam to a 79.2 QBPR , Zona held Cam to 82.6.

Last season Seahawks held Bree's and Cap and Manning way under they're regular seasons averages in the playoffs.

If the line goes to -8 then we'd have a strong play on Packers with a 6 pt diff but again we're backing an injuried QB. But I'd take my chances with this because of the futures on Seahawks and the unlikely possibilty seahawks lose to AFC team in the SB.

Hopefully, if things play-out right this weekend we could get a very strong play in the SB. 
 
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Posted: #60
If the line goes to -8 should have a stron play on SEA or GB?
 
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Posted: #61
Strong*
 
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Posted: #62
Curious.   If yur system is based on power ratings and stats in comparison to the line then why would the big move in the den line effect yur take on the game.   It would seem that the movement of the line toward the power ratings validates your initial pick.
 
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Posted: #63
POWER RATING 1............................................
all games NFC & AFC Championship games since 2000

6 times my lines went 2-0 ATS........... 6 times my lines went 1-1 ATS............... just 2 times in the 14 years since 2000 my lines had a losing record going 0-2 ATS and 0-1-1 ATS of coarse depending on which line one got in the 2013 9ers game my line produced just 1 losing record.

That one losing record was easily avoidable because power rating 2 had a huge play on the no.1 ranked team in that losing year and won  which we don't have this year. 


My Lines ...21-7 SU (75%) & 18-9-1 ATS (66.1%)...................... 
 
 depends the line for 2013 championship game 9ers VS Falcons, 9ers  opened -3.5, went to -4 then late in the week went to 4.5, 9ers won by 4, very easy to get the 3.5 or 4 with 9ers who were favored to cover with my lines. I'll count that as a push because I posted that at 9ers -4 on the site.

My lines on both dogs ATS as it stands now, unless Pats drop to -5.5 or less. Highly, highly likey at least 1 dog covers this weekend and maybe both .



Home Teams favored by 6 pts or less with a lean to the dog on my lines...........................4-3 SU & 3-4 ATS.

Pretty much the same result as the divisional round in which we won ATS on both road  teams.

The info strongly suggest at least 1 dog covers the spread this weekend.



6 point difference with my line and closing line....................8-2 ATS

we haven't had a 6 pt diff yet, with Broncos rising big late. Possible play this weekend on Packers if line closes Seahawks -8 or above.



4 pt to 5..99 diff............1-4 ATS
1.5 pt to 3.99 diff...........6-2 ATS
under 1.5 diff ................4-2 ATS



10 pt diff with a lean to the fav on my line..........5-1 SU & 5-1 ATS.....all 5 ATS wins had a 6 pt diff to closing line.

No 10 pt diff in this years conference finals.



The info above strongly suggest 1 of the 2 dogs is almost certainly going to cover this weekend.

My lines favorotie has a strong SU record but not so much with the smaller favorites of under 6 pts, which seems to suggest a possible out-right upset could very well be coming this weekend.


Good Luck this weekend boys.................and enjoy the games ........
 
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Posted: #64
SURPRISE TEAMS FROM THE WILD CARD ROUND

Much as history suggested, when weak teams and/or surprise teams from the WC round win the SB they are far more likely to be QB'd by a QB with no prior SB experience.

And here we are..........Flacco - gone......Big Ben - gone

What are we left with ?...... Luck, with his no prior SB experience and 2-1 playoff record coming into this years playoffs.


Colts did display the common denominators of past teams from WC round in they're first playoff game but no so much in the 2cd game.

Overall, between both games they do have the look of past WC round surprise teams somewhat, but not close to the Ravens and Giants in both 2007 and 2011  did.

They're defense has really turned it-up, however, Manning's tore quad could be a big part of that, we just don't know how much was the Colts defense and how much was Manning.

The Colts also being overvalued by 7.29 points coming off back-to-back covers is not a good thing.

Colts overvalued in both PR's thus far in playoffs by 5.07 and 4.35, the Colts are not as good as the final scores make them look.

Don't like the Colts all that much. The problem is, don't like the Pats all that much either.

Pats don't have the common denominators of SB winning or even SB teams for a no.1 seed. 

It'd be hard to make a case to play either team but a case could be made to fade either team.

Will likely pass on the game unless we can uncover something better.

 
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Posted: #65
Good read Claw..
 
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Posted: #66
8 of the 11 teams from the wild card round to make the SB since 1997 were undervalued coming into the conference championship games.

Just 1 of 11 teams were overvalued by more than 4 points, 1999 Titans who lost in the SB and are the only team to....not cover the closing line.....getting a push.

Colts overvalued 5.07 and 4.35 , better than 4 points in both PR's.

Kind of makes the Colts not look so good for as a team from the wild card round.

But they do have other common denominators but very iffy at best.


 
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Posted: #67
My power ratings work better without using strength of schedule, I've researched them both ways and they consistently produce better results without strength of schedule.

And that's why you need to do your homework and not just assume or use common sense to understand how to use info.

Understanding regression is again very important, GB was in serious regrression fade mode going into New Orleans, I had a parlay and play on the Saints that game because of regression.

Unless you understand this, know the history of it then you'll be fooled by Rodgers and GB  performance that day.

Bills had one of the best defensive Passer Rating in the league and shut-down some good QB's.  Seattle's defensive passer rating not close to last year.

Seattle last year held Bree's and Cap to a 63.39 QBPR.
Those 2 QB's ave 98.1 QBPR, Seattle held them to 34.71 below their averages.

Seattle held Cam to only a 79.2 QBPR.


 
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Posted: #68
Seattle last year 63.4 defensive passer rating
This year 81.5

Cam had a 81.3 QBPR , Seattle held him to 79.2 just 2.1 below his ave.

Zona held Cam to a 82.6. Seattle's not the defense passer rating monster of last season................................
 
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Posted: #69
Looks like the line has gone to Seattle -8 at some spots, if this holds we'll have a strong play on GB, but we need to wait this line out to just before kick-off to be sure it holds at -8.
 
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Posted: #70
POWER RATINGS 2
all games in conference finals in last 5 years

5-5 SU & 4-5-1 ATS

6 point diff to closing line 1-3 ATS 

This power rating not as good in conference finals in past 5 years

Seattle -7.38 over Packers....lean to Packers on current line
Pats -8.88 over Colts............lean to Pats on current line



Home team less than 6 pt favorite with a lean on my line to the dog......home team is 5-1 SU but just 3-3 ATS

my line favorites of 7 or more......3-2 SU & 3-2 ATS

No. 1 ranked teams.................3-1 SU & 3-0-1 ATS

When a big difference in favorites between power rating 1 and power rating 2 of 5.5 or better, side with power rating 1......3-1 SU & 3-1 ATS

power rating 1
 Seattle -1.71
Pats -5.69

power rating 2
Seattle -7.38
Pats -8.88

We do have a big diff with Seattle/GB, siding with PR 1 gives us GB and they would also be a 6 pt diff to closing line (8-2 ATS SINCE 2000) if line holds to 8 or better.

I'll back GB with a strong play if line holds to 8 or better, may back GB with a smaller play if line drops below 8 because I have Seattle  futures to win SB and could win both Seattle futures and GB +8  and with GB being the likely team to win SB if Seattle does not I'll have a bit of insurance...............................


Enjoy the great games today boys and hopefully come out a winner to boot...........................................


 
 
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Posted: #71
Lines hang'in at 8 pretty much everywhere now with a couple  8.5's, wait the line out, possible 9, maybe I would buy it up to 10 with a huge range to catch a middle with my Seattle futures to win the SB. 
 
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Posted: #72
Packers +10 (-133) over Seahawks --- 13.3 units to win 10 units.................best bet play

I'm taking the 10 because of futures play on Seattle but likely won't need it, grab the 8.5 or 9. Insurance with the no.1 ranked team in power ratings 1.
 
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Posted: #73
Packers +4.5 over Seahawks 1st half --- 3.3 units

Packers ML +205 over Seattle 1st half --- 1 unit
 
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Posted: #74
Best of Luck 
 
 
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Posted: #75
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