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Ive created a football program that ive tested and want to share

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Posted: #226
Nice job Sr. Thanks for the great input again. Hope you finish the week strong. Best of luck to you Sr.....
 
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Posted: #227
Sent friend request please accept.
 
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Posted: #228

AFN your system seems to be the edge most of us need, its really cool that you shared with us. Thanks for the hard work . it's truly appreciated.

 
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Posted: #229
Quote Originally Posted by Kiepdoden3:


I don't see your system strong enough. Look like guess system. Gl
thanks for the insightful post. i always wanted to know who it is that writes all of those chinese restaurant menus, by the way.

 
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Posted: #230
if i haven't already done so, thanks to AFN for doing all the work. 
 
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Posted: #231
Quote Originally Posted by RDTTKA12:

AFN great job again!!! Tailing you since last week and enjoying every bit of it.  I know you stated the three games you liked this week, just curious how much of a discrepancy you look for in your numbers on a match up, whether it be the teams off/def production against your baseline(average team), or just X amount of a gap in the numbers to make you pull the trigger.  Also how do you take into account home vs away games, if you do at all.  EX: Seattle 5-0 home 1-5 on road.  Do you separate a team's home and away statistics?


I run the program and its a big chart of percentages....i then just place each team in a ranking based of of the Highest NFL average baseline percentages to the lowest For example....

Rank 1 this week is SF at 40% Rank 2 is NE at 39% Rank 3 is Den 37% and so on...the chart goes all the way down to lowest ranked at 32 which is KC -37%  This chart is my baseline chart to rank the teams against the NFL average....which is 0.

The defensive, offensive, stats are all calculated and are adjusted to the strength (stats) of the opponent (for example on 3rd and 2 SF converts 10/12 times on average vs Chicago's defense that allows 10/12 on 3rd and 2)  These are the stats that i cant look up on the net as im sure u can but im not gonna look for those key stats takes way to much time....

The percentages are great as it gives me a better idea how teams matchup....

Basically i take the percentages and try to read the code or language of the chart if anything stands out numbers wise ill pull the trigger...and Home field is always a factor when capping if the numbers look close ill most likely take the home team such as ATL at home...or the Redskins pick on the road on Thanksgiving i had better numbers for Redskins and that was on the road...
 
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Posted: #232

joined the community just to say thanks AFN!

 
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Posted: #233
thanks for all your hard work! BOL!!!
 
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Posted: #234
 
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Posted: #235
Great contribution to the community, thank you -
 
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Posted: #236
Adding a play...I forgot to input Baltimore into the chart for some reason explains why I only had 31 teams duh...ran the numbers...

Avg baseline..

Pitt 0.5% Ravens 12%

Offense 

Pitt -4% Ravens 5%

Defense

Pitt -3% Ravens %3

Numbers are similar on offense and defense but again ravens in special teams ranked 1 Pitt ranked 20 and consistency...Pitt is ranked 30! My main stat that I'm pulling the trigger on is on the 12% avg baseline...I've noticed teams between 10% to 15% on avg baseline cover or blowout teams...

Pick Ravens-7 in a route

Hopefully we get 2 blowouts with texans and ravens and see if this program is consistent 
 
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Posted: #237
Good Luck
 
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Posted: #238
AFNfootballnerd: Do you think the ravens beat the steelers by double digits?
 
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Posted: #239
AFN thanks again. I tailed on Houston. Will tail on Baltimore
 
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Posted: #240
Dallas Philly?? 
 
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Posted: #241
Pitt all day
 
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Posted: #242
 
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No on could have predicted that without Mendenhall and with a Batch that the Steelers could have beat the Ravens....the pressure at the line looked like crap and the secondary for the ravens also looked like crap. Flacco had no field awareness....they made Batch look like a laser point QB.... Wallace and Miller were always freaking open!!!! No matter what crazy things happen. I bet NBA and when I see the Suns get blown out by 40 points, and the Lakers get scored on by 40 just in the 4th ... it boggles my mind. D12 goes 9 for 21 at the line.....Well let's move onto this week. I am never going to bet against the Steelers defense. Flacco was 3 and out 3 and out most game. 
 
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Posted: #244
My program forgot about how bad joe flacco is...lol reed gets an interception and ray rice runs in the endzone to start the route...but guess who drops back every play with a deer in a headlight...friggin joe flacco...he literally only had 1 throw in the endzone to boldin the whole game...Ravens need a gunslinger or they will never get pass the hump...lets go giants!
 
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Posted: #245
Looking good AFN. Thanks again for all that hard work you keep putting in. Lets keep rolling and best of luck to you Sr. Riding the Giants train tonight.
 
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Posted: #246
any changes with your GMEN tonight AFN?
 
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Posted: #247
No changes as Gmen have better numbers...gotta roll with the numbers and for what it's worth so far...captainpap when me and him are on the same team it's been money
 
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Posted: #248
 
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Posted: #249

G MEN IT IS 

 
 
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Posted: #250
"My program forgot about how bad joe flacco is..."   Best quote in this entire thread.  sucks that you lost the bet but that garbage is funny.    Good luck tonight!
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