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JETS @ CLEVELAND: I was giddy a couple days ago about this team. That has ended.

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Posted: #1
I watched this very game last year and the coaching staff did EVERYTHING possible to lose this game with bone-headed play calling.

Things have changed. McCown is no longer the QB and that matters. 

But the clincher for me is turnovers. The Browns have forced near a league high 8 in two games and lead the league in +/- at 5. The Jets have 5 in two games.

A rookie QB will turn the ball over. It is too be expected. While Tyrod is and always has been one of the best to protect the ball. Despite an uncharacteristic 2 in two games.

Also, the Jets run game is deteriorating. I think Cleveland will eat up Crowell. A winless team got rid of him for a reason. And Powell is hot and cold (more cold than hot as the season wears on and I've never been a fan).

I thought these first two games were absolute losers for CLE, VERY tough games for them with PITT at home and NO on the road, and they did everything possible  to lose both(a Myles Garrett push out of bounds pushing back a FG 10 yards to get blocked instead of a winning chip-shot, and then a missed PAT to win it).

When CLE breaks out of this 19 game winless streak, they'll break out in a big way. The Jets although EXTREMELY impressive in Game 1 came back to earth at home when the table was set for a win.

Plus the Jets are playing the most game possible in an 11 game stretch, 2 of the 3 on the road, which is always a detriment, particularly with a rookie QB.

It's actually HOMERISH to CLE nowadays, but I have to do it here. 

CLE finally snaps the streak.I LOVE CLE coming into this game angry, FAR more talented than last year with stability at QB (and many other positions) ready to break out against a team on their level.

CLEVELAND -3 over JETS
 
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Posted: #2
3 games in 11 days I would say that is pretty brutal but being an underdog to a team who has won one game in over 2 seasons is just wow .. I would think if Cleveland losses this game Hue Jackson will lose his job 
 
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Posted: #3
It’s not surprising at all. They’ve done everything possible to lose or tie the past two games. Clearly they are right on the cusp of winning and this streak will end. And those are two extremely tough games, by any standard, not just for the Browns. Despite those two teams looking lackluster in the first two games respectively.

When this team breaks out it is going to be in typical streak breaking fashion: with the pedal to the metal in order to leave no doubt of the result or a chance for them to blunder their way to another tie or loss.

CLE’s OU this year was 5.5. Some people expected as many as 7 wins. To be a 3 point favorite at home against an (albeit impressive) rookie QB against a team on a short schedule that had an RSW OU of 6 at its peak, is not surprising in the least, nor is it a premium.


 
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Posted: #4
Such an overreaction, Scal.  Jets or nothing for me.  This game should be a pk.  My opinion is that you're laying 3 points for nothing.   
 
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Posted: #5
Ridiculous statement Papa. Seasoned cappers know full well that streak busting games are typically blowouts. And that steak will be broken this year. It’s obvious it’s coming very very soon. To me, next game. 3 is a bargain. Haggling over a field goal is cappers getting wrapped up in their own anxieties about ‘value’.

They were a PAT away from winning in NO and held that offense to 3 points for 3.5 quarters.

If they won the line would be 3 possibly 3.5 or 4.

Instead they miss a PAT and it should be a pickum. 

Ludicrous.


 
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Posted: #6
Guys if you want to win, you’re gonna have to swallow some undesirable lines.

The books know full well we don’t want to lay a single point with a team that has lost or tied 34 of 35.

They are going to make it tough on us every single time.

Real value can be found at the lower levels of CFB and CBB where the books don’t have the expertise to rank obscure conferences and/or FBS vs FCS matchups properly.

You very rarely find value in the NFL. This is the books bread and butter and they want every last crumb. So you’ll have to lay the 3. If you don’t want to, tough. Life isn’t fair.
 
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Posted: #7
Get that -3 now because I believe this line is going to go up some.  Browns will cover easily they are not that bad this year and hung in there with the Saints and Pitt.
 
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Posted: #8
Agreed Kev.

The way CLE lost to NO couldn’t have scripted this game any better for CLE backers.
 
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Posted: #9
tough game, but short week favors Cleveland no doubt
Sip on that plus money honey!
 
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Posted: #10
Best of luck Scal
 
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Posted: #11
Miami ML was the easiest play I've made all year.

Jets ML or nothing imo here. Most likely won't play it.

Best of Luck
 
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Posted: #12
Thanks gents.

That makes zero sense Under.

You backed an underwhelming dolphins team on the road against Darnold and the Jets on ththe ML to boot.

Now you’ll back the Jets on the road on the ML against the Browns, who are clearly going to break out in a game or two, if not next game.

All the evidence is there. What more did you want them to do in the Saints game? Tyrod and the defense can’t kick 2 PAT’s.

If Cleveland wins on the road this line is a much tougher 3.5/4. This is a BARGAIN.

Don’t say I didn’t warn ya.
 
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Posted: #13

How is it that a Team that has not won a game since the most Corrupt president in United States history left office in 2016 and has been out touring the company untry giving speeches to liberal idiots for Millions of Dollars a speech , could be favorites in this game at -3 . 

Cleveland should be the underdog in this game  by at least +4. 

 

 

 
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Posted: #14
Lost, I’m sorry, but you are woefully misinformed when it comes to capping principles.

There are a myriad of nuances in this line well beyond the square and rudimentary observation you just made.
 
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Posted: #15
Quote Originally Posted by Ilost20grand:

How is it that a Team that has not won a game since the most Corrupt president in United States history left office in 2016 and has been out touring the company untry giving speeches to liberal idiots for Millions of Dollars a speech , could be favorites in this game at -3 . 

Cleveland should be the underdog in this game  by at least +4. 

 I thought the line would be pk or Jets - 1 

 Browns opening 3 point favorites tells you how the books feel about this game .. Situationally scal is right you couldn't ask for a better spot for the Browns to get a win ..  I certainly think this is a must win game for Hue Jackson as well .. Hue losses this game and he will be fired and he knows it 

 
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Posted: #16
how about under 40 does either team get to 20 
 
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Posted: #17
I agree with you but I gotta take Darnold coming out strong here... I teased it 
 
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Posted: #18
Quote Originally Posted by zebrakiller:

Does Cleve have any wins?  NO and laying points on teams with no wins is bad news


all of them yesaterday LOST the cash 49ers saints Texans all thre favored blew up your wallets



Well folks, you try to help them.

You can’t hit the submit button for them!

My posted picks this weekend:

Missouri -2.5 over Purdue 
Missouri -200 ML
Randy Orton -280 Over Jeff Hardy 
Ronda Rousey -900 Over Alexa Bliss
Army -6.5 lean over Hawaii
Rutgers +3 Over Kansas - loss

And all they’ll remember is the last one. Because in the words of Ol Blue Eyes....”That’s Life.”

And then they’ll tell a guy who has watched several HINDRED Jets games in his life how he thinks they’ll play. Scalabrine is wrong. They are right.

Again, they hit the submit button. You can only nudge them....

That’s Life! Is right.

Some people want to be pawns.

Some want to be Paupers....

Some ...want to be Kings.

 
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Posted: #19
Is this guy an absolute  MOUSH or what? I am not saying, but asking? I remember when he was lights out at one time a year or so ago, but then the last year it seems he has been beyond brutal. I knew his Missou pick was cooked when he picked it the other day. Seems like too many people/$$$ on this games and they get jinxed, but maybe that is just a tin foil conspiracy theory.

Def not happy he is on Cleveland as I wanted to pound them (no pun intended) Someone plz fill me in, but I stopped following him ages ago when he went on an EPIC losing streak and started costing me big $$$$'s. So not happy he is on Cleveland tho, arrrrrrrrrrrrrrgh 
 
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Posted: #20
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Ridiculous statement Papa. Seasoned cappers know full well that streak busting games are typically blowouts. And that steak will be broken this year. It’s obvious it’s coming very very soon. To me, next game. 3 is a bargain. Haggling over a field goal is cappers getting wrapped up in their own anxieties about ‘value’.

They were a PAT away from winning in NO and held that offense to 3 points for 3.5 quarters.

If they won the line would be 3 possibly 3.5 or 4.

Instead they miss a PAT and it should be a pickum. 

Ludicrous.



Did you actually watch both Jets games and both Browns games?  I watched every snap of all 4 games and there is no way the Browns are better than the Jets.  They just aren't.  Jets have a better QB and WAYYYYYYYY better coaching.  

I picked the Jets week 1, thought they would win in Detroit and bet the Dolphins yesterday because I was sure the Jets would have a MNF hangover.  If you can't understand that, then it's definitely a flaw in your capping.  That was the perfect spot to catch the Jets and they caught the Jets napping early, but then the Jets still made a game out of it and squandered opportunities.  

The Browns cannot get out of their own way.  They will always do something to darn it up.  Laying any points right now on the Browns against a competent QB and a good coaching staff just makes no sense.  And the heartbreak the Browns faced again 2 weeks in a row really doesn't help on a short week.  

Jets will in in Cleveland Thursday night.  Just my opinion, but what do I know?
 
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Posted: #21
Oh yeah, let's add on the fact that almost 80% of the money is on the Browns so far.  If you want to bet your money on a short favorite in the NFL on a Thursday night getting 80% of the action, you are set up for failure.  
 
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Posted: #22
I knew his Missou pick was cooked when he picked it the other day. Seems like too many people/$$$ on this games and they get jinxed, but maybe that is just a tin foil conspiracy theory.


This is what Covers has come to:

You now pick WINNERS, posting games a month ago with a lookahead line AND a ML, and trolls say you lost on the regular line.

Now WINNING IS actually losing to trolls even with clearly posted plays written up!:

They read NOTHING but the title (which actually had the word lookahead in it, and he probably doesn’t even know what that means), and come in to bash.

HailFlutie really is the quintessential essence of the worst of Covers: an ignoramous of the highest order!




 
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Posted: #23
Papa you’re the guy who said DON’T bet Nunes against Rousey because when I got in, her odds were “awful”.

Even though her odds were +135 and I had no knowledge of any previous lines (+200 at one point).

This is gambling mantras of “CHASING PERCEIVED VALUE” and “Nail Biting Over public support”.

The latter is a shortcut and has NOTHING to do with a fully capped game. It is a tool you use when you DON’T know a team inside and out like I do the Jets.

The former is one of the most misunderstood concepts in all of sportsbetting (I.e. “I can’t bet this game or fight because all the “value” is gone.”). “Value” is an arbitrary measure. I see this line as a bargain.

And the fact that the Jets are “better” doesn’t compensate you for the home field, short turnaround on the road in 11 days, or the breakout game the Browns clealry will have sooner than later. And I believe that to be on Thursday.

And thank you for letting me know the coaching staff on the Jets is better. Me and 7 billion other people must have missed that memo.

 
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Posted: #24
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I knew his Missou pick was cooked when he picked it the other day. Seems like too many people/$$$ on this games and they get jinxed, but maybe that is just a tin foil conspiracy theory.


This is what Covers has come to:

You now pick WINNERS, posting games a month ago with a lookahead line AND a ML, and trolls say you lost on the regular line.

Now WINNING IS actually losing to trolls even with clearly posted plays written up!:

They read NOTHING but the title (which actually had the word lookahead in it, and he probably doesn’t even know what that means), and come in to bash.

HailFlutie really is the quintessential essence of the worst of Covers: an ignoramous of the highest order!




That is fine, but you are beyond brutal lately and lately ='s like the last year or so. Its not a short term rough ride its like RT 66 and it goes on forever, lol. I swear, its like clockwork with you posting and it being a guaranteed lock to lose. 

Not trying to rip on ya, but maybe all the $$$ and sheep/deplorables that follow you, I duno? All I know I wouldn't be caught dead touching the Clownies Brownies this TNF with your kiss of death JINX on them
 
 
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Posted: #25
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Papa you’re the guy who said DON’T bet Nunes against Rousey because when I got in, her odds were “awful”.

Even though her odds were +135 and I had no knowledge of any previous lines (+200 at one point).

This is gambling mantras of “CHASING PERCEIVED VALUE” and “Nail Biting Over public support”.

The latter is a shortcut and has NOTHING to do with a fully capped game. It is a tool you use when you DON’T know a team inside and out like I do the Jets.

The former is one of the most misunderstood concepts in all of sportsbetting (I.e. “I can’t bet this game or fight because all the “value” is gone.”). “Value” is an arbitrary measure. I see this line as a bargain.

And the fact that the Jets are “better” doesn’t compensate you for the home field, short turnaround on the road in 11 days, or the breakout game the Browns clealry will have sooner than later. And I believe that to be on Thursday.

And thank you for letting me know the coaching staff on the Jets is better. Me and 7 billion other people must have missed that memo.


Your bringing up a fight from 2 years ago?

I don't remember the last Jets game I bet on and lost, so you may know the team inside out, but I don't miss Jets bets, so I'd like to think I know the team pretty well too.  And your thoughts about perceived value and what not are so false it's frightening.  Good luck next week, but we definitely will have to agree to disagree on all of these points.
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