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JETS @ CLEVELAND: I was giddy a couple days ago about this team. That has ended.

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Posted: #26

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

Ridiculous statement Papa. Seasoned cappers know full well that streak busting games are typically blowouts. And that steak will be broken this year. It’s obvious it’s coming very very soon. To me, next game. 3 is a bargain. Haggling over a field goal is cappers getting wrapped up in their own anxieties about ‘value’.They were a PAT away from winning in NO and held that offense to 3 points for 3.5 quarters.If they won the line would be 3 possibly 3.5 or 4.Instead they miss a PAT and it should be a pickum. Ludicrous.
Did you actually watch both Jets games and both Browns games?  I watched every snap of all 4 games and there is no way the Browns are better than the Jets.  They just aren't.  Jets have a better QB and WAYYYYYYYY better coaching.  I picked the Jets week 1, thought they would win in Detroit and bet the Dolphins yesterday because I was sure the Jets would have a MNF hangover.  If you can't understand that, then it's definitely a flaw in your capping.  That was the perfect spot to catch the Jets and they caught the Jets napping early, but then the Jets still made a game out of it and squandered opportunities.  The Browns cannot get out of their own way.  They will always do something to darn it up.  Laying any points right now on the Browns against a competent QB and a good coaching staff just makes no sense.  And the heartbreak the Browns faced again 2 weeks in a row really doesn't help on a short week.  Jets will in in Cleveland Thursday night.  Just my opinion, but what do I know?
Playing  devils advocate the Browns have just played two teams with WAY BETTER QB's and they more then held their own.. They also just played two teams that are better then the Jets and with a college kicker could have and should have won both. Now the Jets come into town on a short week ( home team has been the best bet in the NFL since Thursday NFL started).. with a QB that in two games has thrown 3 INT's already vs just 3 TD'...  Hmm...  Home field ..  Better defense.. Rookie QB..  Thursday nite game.. Crowd will be on fire..  Jets ? Well they are still the Jets.. They shut down Ben and Brees..  The rook QB  sorry do not like his chances.. Browns or no play.. 

 
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Posted: #27

Oh geez! So much to unpack in this one.

For one, 20GRAND is clearly an SAF just trying to troll Scal. If not, why go to such lengths to bring politics into a thread clearly about basketball? Scal's locked in and not letting anyone drag him down. I commend him.

Now to the concept of "value". Scal made a good point earlier. If you want value, and numbers not influenced by false public perceptions, cap small conference college. I always have for this very reason. I never understood why people spent so much time capping games of the week when there is value to be had in the MAC, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West. I understood this concept literally since junior high. Scal takes it even a step further capping FCS schools you only can get action on @ 5Ds.

Now to this game, and very value fits in. I think when it comes to the NFL, it's best to cap the game, and if you see an advantage in your number and the real number, there's value in it. Take it. Scal made the point that if the Browns would win the number would be even higher. I'll go a step further. The Browns, the winless for 2 years Browns, would be a bigger favorite if not for all the hype around Sam Darnold. They are the better team. Better defense. And they are at home. They are coming of a tie against Big Brother and a road loss they should have won. They are angry ans I believe they are starting to believe. And I believe the Dog Pound will be pumped for this one.

Look I like Sam Darnold but after watching almost all of his games in college, i'm from a PAC12 market, I didn't see the hype. I did think he was the best QB prospect in this draft but I thought the draft class was overrated. I thought if Baker were a few inches taller and had Darnold's "aw shucks" charm, he'd be hands down the best QB. Better arm talent, better intangibles. Better at reading defenses and going through a progression. And personally, Mason Rudolph was my favorite QB in this draft but I digress... The country is now drinking the Sam Darnold kool-aid or the number would be higher. Well i'm drinking the Cleveland kool-aid. I really love their defense.

I was already on the under, the Jets have a sneeky good defense as well, but now i'm showing solidarity with Scal and jumping on the Browns. Keep up the good work, bro.

TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
 
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Posted: #28
They all come out of the woodwork with one loss don’t they. Hiding. In the shadows.

Yes I guess “brutal lately” is:

RU -16.5 over Texas State W
OSU -35 Over RU W
Mizzou -2.5 over Purdue W
Mizzou -200 ML over Purdue W
Orton -280 Over Harry W
Rousey -900 Over Bliss W
Army -6.5 Over Hawaii lean W

I guess ALL that gets trumped by ONE posted loss and classifies as “brutal lately”.

Keep typing Flutie. First, you proved don’t even know what a lookahead line means in a POSTED play. Then you can’t even adequately speak to someone who is paying people’s mortgages this month. Browns will be added to cover utilities.

Now scram kid. I have to get back to putting cotton balls in my ears before Mr. Anxiety Papa quibbles some more over 3 points in an NFL game.

 
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Posted: #29

You're capping on this game is silly at best. The Jets are as good or better in every phase of the game.

 

Expect better from you Scal.    

 
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Posted: #30

Scal, don't waste time defending yourself to trolls. Not everybody is gonna agree with you but you already know there are people on this site who pray for you to lose just so they can troll you. And from what I can tell, you do better when you ignore them and just stick to your capping. When they get in your head, you waste energy arguing with them. Then you second guess yourself, then you press. And you're taken out of your game. Look at how much time we wasted arguing with each other. It was all pointless. You're a good capper, bro. Just focus on that and brush haters off.

TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
 
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Posted: #31

Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

You're capping on this game is silly at best. The Jets are as good or better in every phase of the game.   Expect better from you Scal.

I think you're wrong, LRM. I think the Browns are better in every phase, except maybe special teams. I think it's close but i've give the edge to Cleveland. The under is the bet for me because I love both of these defenses but I think Scals capping is right here.

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Posted: #32

The Jets lost yesterday because rookie quarterbacks have growing pains. That's the price that has to be paid.  Not trolling Scal at all, never have never will.

The Browns will win their first game, when they are on the road, and catch some team looking ahead. 

 
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Posted: #33
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

Oh geez! So much to unpack in this one.

For one, 20GRAND is clearly an SAF just trying to troll Scal. If not, why go to such lengths to bring politics into a thread clearly about basketball? Scal's locked in and not letting anyone drag him down. I commend him.

Now to the concept of "value". Scal made a good point earlier. If you want value, and numbers not influenced by false public perceptions, cap small conference college. I always have for this very reason. I never understood why people spent so much time capping games of the week when there is value to be had in the MAC, the Sunbelt, the Mountain West. I understood this concept literally since junior high. Scal takes it even a step further capping FCS schools you only can get action on @ 5Ds.

Now to this game, and very value fits in. I think when it comes to the NFL, it's best to cap the game, and if you see an advantage in your number and the real number, there's value in it. Take it. Scal made the point that if the Browns would win the number would be even higher. I'll go a step further. The Browns, the winless for 2 years Browns, would be a bigger favorite if not for all the hype around Sam Darnold. They are the better team. Better defense. And they are at home. They are coming of a tie against Big Brother and a road loss they should have won. They are angry ans I believe they are starting to believe. And I believe the Dog Pound will be pumped for this one.

Look I like Sam Darnold but after watching almost all of his games in college, i'm from a PAC12 market, I didn't see the hype. I did think he was the best QB prospect in this draft but I thought the draft class was overrated. I thought if Baker were a few inches taller and had Darnold's "aw shucks" charm, he'd be hands down the best QB. Better arm talent, better intangibles. Better at reading defenses and going through a progression. And personally, Mason Rudolph was my favorite QB in this draft but I digress... The country is now drinking the Sam Darnold kool-aid or the number would be higher. Well i'm drinking the Cleveland kool-aid. I really love their defense.

I was already on the under, the Jets have a sneeky good defense as well, but now i'm showing solidarity with Scal and jumping on the Browns. Keep up the good work, bro.



If you wanted to bet this game preseason, it was Browns -2.5, and that was with the perceived notion that Darnold wouldn't be nearly as polished as he currently is and that the Jets would be terrible.  Now that Jets are very competent, the Browns are only giving 3?  Books are BEGGING you to bet the Browns.  Bet them, let the line go up, and I will snag the Jets.  You want to lay 3 points with the worst coaching staff in football and a garbage QB, be my guest.  I'm just trying to help.
 
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Posted: #34
Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

Scal, don't waste time defending yourself to trolls. Not everybody is gonna agree with you but you already know there are people on this site who pray for you to lose just so they can troll you. And from what I can tell, you do better when you ignore them and just stick to your capping. When they get in your head, you waste energy arguing with them. Then you second guess yourself, then you press. And you're taken out of your game. Look at how much time we wasted arguing with each other. It was all pointless. You're a good capper, bro. Just focus on that and brush haters off.


So, now I'm a troll?  You've barely been on this site for 2 years.  Scal and I have had agreements and disagreements for years.  I disagree with him on this game.  It's nothing personal.  I have respect for Scal and he knows that.  
 
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Posted: #35
WHO CARES if the Jets are better! They ARE in many regards. That is quite obvious. The Browns coaching staff is a dumpster fire. Again, obvious.

In this spot after the Saints loss, I see a breakout win. I waited for this game for a YEAR after the last Jets Browns game where the Jets were also clealry better and the Browns coaching staff gift wrapped them the win. It’s called situational capping. They have enough of a roster overhaul this year to get it done. And who knows what assets are coming their way in the Patriots trade for Gordon.

Stump I will try to ignore them. But I can’t ignore getting bashed for a winning play posted a MONTH ago so everyone here could join in and not get a line of -7 and -5 and lose. That is above and beyond anything I’ve ever seen here. The imbecility is astounding.
 
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Posted: #36
Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:


Your bringing up a fight from 2 years ago?

I don't remember the last Jets game I bet on and lost, so you may know the team inside out, but I don't miss Jets bets, so I'd like to think I know the team pretty well too.  And your thoughts about perceived value and what not are so false it's frightening.  Good luck next week, but we definitely will have to agree to disagree on all of these points.

What’s frightening is your perception of “value” which leads you to betting with scared money (pun intended).

Nunes at +135 is the window of opportunity for ME. Your window included +200. 

There’s a thing in math called the memoryless property. It’s why casinos are successful when they post an electric grid of roulette numbers but know, through the memoryless property, the marble and wheel’s odds don’t change due to previous outcomes.

I think of my bets as the same. If I come to the table at +135 that is my starting point and the past is memoryless. Then I don’t have all the anxiety you have over having lost +200 on the betting line.

40 seconds later I was paid off by Nunes.

So let’s let bygones be bygones.

Are you betting Cyborg to beat Nunes? And is the current line of -300 a good one? (A pertinent question since that is the current line to discuss).
 
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Posted: #37
I hate to say it but think the Browns take the Jets to the woodshed.  I’m surprised how good the Browns defense is.  What they did against the Saints is very impressive.  Darnold has to play and has had moments but he’s throwing at least 2 picks.  The books threw a 3 for a reason, it’s because the Browns are better.  As always we shall see. 
 
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Posted: #38

Please don't let the Patriots get Josh Gordon   angry

 
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Posted: #39
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:


What’s frightening is your perception of “value” which leads you to betting with scared money (pun intended).

Nunes at +135 is the window of opportunity for ME. Your window included +200. 

There’s a thing in math called the memoryless property. It’s why casinos are successful when they post an electric grid of roulette numbers but know, through the memoryless property, the marble and wheel’s odds don’t change due to previous outcomes.

I think of my bets as the same. If I come to the table at +135 that is my starting point and the past is memoryless. Then I don’t have all the anxiety you have over having lost +200 on the betting line.

40 seconds later I was paid off by Nunes.

So let’s let bygones be bygones.

Are you betting Cyborg to beat Nunes? And is the current line of -300 a good one? (A pertinent question since that is the current line to discuss).


See, this is where you are misguided.  Let's give an example of Canelo vs GGG.  

Canelo was +125 Saturday morning.  I loved Canelo going into the fight so I'm thinking +125 is a solid bet, but i figured the public loved GGG, so they would bet him throughout the day.  I was right and right before the fight I was able to snag Canelo at +165.  Because of the fact that I got 40 cents more than I thought I would, I bet 3x more than I would have if he was +125.  

+125 he was a solid bet, but at +165, the value got so much greater, so I had to bet way more money that I would have.

Sure, when you bet Nunes at +125, you thought it was good value and it obviously ended up being good because she won so easily, but that doesn't mean it was good value compared to what you could have gotten and didn't get because you waited too long to bet it.  

You gave 1 example of a fight where you missed the great line and got a good line.  Don't really get how that factors into this Jets/Browns game whatsoever. 

And no, I would never bet Cyborg at -300.  If you can tell from my UFC bets, I rarely ever lay money, and no chance I would lay -300 against Nunes, especially with the way Cyborg has looked recently.  
 
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Posted: #40
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

I hate to say it but think the Browns take the Jets to the woodshed.  I’m surprised how good the Browns defense is.  What they did against the Saints is very impressive.  Darnold has to play and has had moments but he’s throwing at least 2 picks.  The books threw a 3 for a reason, it’s because the Browns are better.  As always we shall see. 

The books threw a 3 because the Browns are better?  Not really following that considering the books put 3 out there for home field, which means books think its a pk on neutral field.   If the Browns were better, they'd be giving more than a FG.
 
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Posted: #41

Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

The Jets lost yesterday because rookie quarterbacks have growing pains. That's the price that has to be paid.  Not trolling Scal at all, never have never will. The Browns will win their first game, when they are on the road, and catch some team looking ahead.
Now Sam faces the best defense he has faced this year on the road who has brought  a ton of pressure on QB's this year and his growing pains are over.. Do not think so..  More pain on the horizon for Sam.. peace_5

 
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Posted: #42
PapaShango don’t be silly you know I know this.  Knock it off with the stupid emoticon.   It’s considering a team who hasn’t won in three seasons is laying points to anyone is alarming was my point.
 
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Posted: #43
Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:

PapaShango don’t be silly you know I know this.  Knock it off with the stupid emoticon.   It’s considering a team who hasn’t won in three seasons is laying points to anyone is alarming was my point.

It's only alarming because so many people are pounding a team that hasn't won in 3 seasons laying points on short rest!  It's insane, IMO.
 
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Posted: #44

Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

The Jets lost yesterday because rookie quarterbacks have growing pains. That's the price that has to be paid.  Not trolling Scal at all, never have never will. The Browns will win their first game, when they are on the road, and catch some team looking ahead.

I know you're not, LRM. You're just talking J.E.T.S. football.

TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
 
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Posted: #45

Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:

Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

Scal, don't waste time defending yourself to trolls. Not everybody is gonna agree with you but you already know there are people on this site who pray for you to lose just so they can troll you. And from what I can tell, you do better when you ignore them and just stick to your capping. When they get in your head, you waste energy arguing with them. Then you second guess yourself, then you press. And you're taken out of your game. Look at how much time we wasted arguing with each other. It was all pointless. You're a good capper, bro. Just focus on that and brush haters off.
So, now I'm a troll?  You've barely been on this site for 2 years.  Scal and I have had agreements and disagreements for years.  I disagree with him on this game.  It's nothing personal.  I have respect for Scal and he knows that.

OOOOOH, papashango is triggered! For one, I wasn't talking about you. I almost, out of respect, clarified that I wasn't talking about you but now i'm kinda glad I didn't.

Secondly, i've been using this site since it's inception. What's the date next to a screen name got to do with right and wrong?

TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
 
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Posted: #46
Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:

I knew his Missou pick was cooked when he picked it the other day. Seems like too many people/$$$ on this games and they get jinxed, but maybe that is just a tin foil conspiracy theory.


This is what Covers has come to:

You now pick WINNERS, posting games a month ago with a lookahead line AND a ML, and trolls say you lost on the regular line.

Now WINNING IS actually losing to trolls even with clearly posted plays written up!:

They read NOTHING but the title (which actually had the word lookahead in it, and he probably doesn’t even know what that means), and come in to bash.

HailFlutie really is the quintessential essence of the worst of Covers: an ignoramous of the highest order!





What about Rutgers
 
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Posted: #47

Hope you're right Scal, if Cleveland wins the Browns fans get free Bud Light new_cool

 
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Posted: #48
Jets it is
I have spoken ….
 
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Posted: #49

No Bud for you .

 

Now on to something much more important.....How the hell does New England get this guy for a fifth round pick ?

Cleveland is so friggin stupid..........it hurts 

 
 
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Posted: #50

Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:

Please don't let the Patriots get Josh Gordon

They already did an_slap

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