Now on to something much more important.....How the hell does New England get this guy for a fifth round pick ?
Cleveland is so friggin stupid..........it hurts
For once I agree with you.
I think this game is VERY hard to pick. I am a CLV fan, but I have strong evidence for both sides. I am surprised at such intense feelings for what I see is an easy pass.
CLV's DEF should be able to shut down NYJ's OFF which is much weaker than PIT's or NO's. CLV"s OFF is so inept they couldn't win at home despite 6 takewaya. According to the Sports Database, teams are 94.-2-1 SU in that situation.
That is pathetic, however maybe the Jets are just the DEF that incompetent CLV can handle. Massey has the Jets' DEF rated #21 and CLV"s OFF #32, so I wouldn't bet my money on it.
Maybe betting the Under makes sense, but I haven't had much success betting the superficially obvious choice. However, acccording to Scores and Odds, 92% of the early money is on the Over. If the total climbs, l might act.
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Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:
No Bud for you .
Now on to something much more important.....How the hell does New England get this guy for a fifth round pick ?
Cleveland is so friggin stupid..........it hurts
For once I agree with you.
I think this game is VERY hard to pick. I am a CLV fan, but I have strong evidence for both sides. I am surprised at such intense feelings for what I see is an easy pass.
CLV's DEF should be able to shut down NYJ's OFF which is much weaker than PIT's or NO's. CLV"s OFF is so inept they couldn't win at home despite 6 takewaya. According to the Sports Database, teams are 94.-2-1 SU in that situation.
That is pathetic, however maybe the Jets are just the DEF that incompetent CLV can handle. Massey has the Jets' DEF rated #21 and CLV"s OFF #32, so I wouldn't bet my money on it.
Maybe betting the Under makes sense, but I haven't had much success betting the superficially obvious choice. However, acccording to Scores and Odds, 92% of the early money is on the Over. If the total climbs, l might act.
No Bud for you . Now on to something much more important.....How the hell does New England get this guy for a fifth round pick ? Cleveland is so friggin stupid..........it hurts
How does my Cowboys not go out and get him. How did they not go after Earl Thomas? Forking ridiculous.
TIME TO BRING BACK THE OBAMA CAGES!
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Quote Originally Posted by LRM704:
No Bud for you . Now on to something much more important.....How the hell does New England get this guy for a fifth round pick ? Cleveland is so friggin stupid..........it hurts
How does my Cowboys not go out and get him. How did they not go after Earl Thomas? Forking ridiculous.
Only thing I'll say is that you are seeing them as angry when the truth is that they are deflated. Kicker Zane Gonzalez released after it was revealed he was kicking with a groin injury. Gordon release/trade was a surprise but long overdue. Locker room feeling has to be down on that move. Joe Thomas defending Hue Jackson on Twitter for consoling the kicker because 'he is a good coach' has media up in arms here. They are a mess. I know you like the spot more than anything... but this is playing with fire
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Only thing I'll say is that you are seeing them as angry when the truth is that they are deflated. Kicker Zane Gonzalez released after it was revealed he was kicking with a groin injury. Gordon release/trade was a surprise but long overdue. Locker room feeling has to be down on that move. Joe Thomas defending Hue Jackson on Twitter for consoling the kicker because 'he is a good coach' has media up in arms here. They are a mess. I know you like the spot more than anything... but this is playing with fire
See, this is where you are misguided. Let's give an example of Canelo vs GGG.
Canelo was +125 Saturday morning. I loved Canelo going into the fight so I'm thinking +125 is a solid bet, but i figured the public loved GGG, so they would bet him throughout the day. I was right and right before the fight I was able to snag Canelo at +165. Because of the fact that I got 40 cents more than I thought I would, I bet 3x more than I would have if he was +125.
+125 he was a solid bet, but at +165, the value got so much greater, so I had to bet way more money that I would have.
Sure, when you bet Nunes at +125, you thought it was good value and it obviously ended up being good because she won so easily, but that doesn't mean it was good value compared to what you could have gotten and didn't get because you waited too long to bet it.
I agree with everything you said here.
But what you offered is the reverse of what I'm arguing.
An appropriate example would have said Canelo opened at +165 and then when you got online or to the window it was at +125 and the line had settled. Then the rest of the day ONLY +125 was available before starting the fight.
In that situation, should you take the +125 on Canelo if you capped him on the winner?
My answer is YES in that, through the memoryless property, +165 is irrelevant as it was never available to you.
According to what you said about Nunes vs. Rousey, you would leave +125 on the table because it wasn't worth betting when you could have gotten it for +165.
Now Nunes was more extreme at +200 previously but it is the same point.
I make a standing offer for you to reread this entire thread for capping nuggets. It just might be worth your while.
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Quote Originally Posted by PapaShango:
See, this is where you are misguided. Let's give an example of Canelo vs GGG.
Canelo was +125 Saturday morning. I loved Canelo going into the fight so I'm thinking +125 is a solid bet, but i figured the public loved GGG, so they would bet him throughout the day. I was right and right before the fight I was able to snag Canelo at +165. Because of the fact that I got 40 cents more than I thought I would, I bet 3x more than I would have if he was +125.
+125 he was a solid bet, but at +165, the value got so much greater, so I had to bet way more money that I would have.
Sure, when you bet Nunes at +125, you thought it was good value and it obviously ended up being good because she won so easily, but that doesn't mean it was good value compared to what you could have gotten and didn't get because you waited too long to bet it.
I agree with everything you said here.
But what you offered is the reverse of what I'm arguing.
An appropriate example would have said Canelo opened at +165 and then when you got online or to the window it was at +125 and the line had settled. Then the rest of the day ONLY +125 was available before starting the fight.
In that situation, should you take the +125 on Canelo if you capped him on the winner?
My answer is YES in that, through the memoryless property, +165 is irrelevant as it was never available to you.
According to what you said about Nunes vs. Rousey, you would leave +125 on the table because it wasn't worth betting when you could have gotten it for +165.
Now Nunes was more extreme at +200 previously but it is the same point.
I make a standing offer for you to reread this entire thread for capping nuggets. It just might be worth your while.
Let me rephrase one sentence to avoid further confusion:
According to what you said about Nunes vs. Rousey, you would leave +125 on the table because it wasn't worth betting when +165 was once available in the markets (not to you but the public bet down Nunes and all her 'value').
Please reread my post (from post #1).
And skip all the idiot windbag fodder in between.
Lots to love and learn about capping (and life).
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Let me rephrase one sentence to avoid further confusion:
According to what you said about Nunes vs. Rousey, you would leave +125 on the table because it wasn't worth betting when +165 was once available in the markets (not to you but the public bet down Nunes and all her 'value').
I hate to say it but think the Browns take the Jets to the woodshed. I’m surprised how good the Browns defense is. What they did against the Saints is very impressive. Darnold has to play and has had moments but he’s throwing at least 2 picks. The books threw a 3 for a reason, it’s because the Browns are better. As always we shall see.
When this guy agrees with me, the yin and yang of covers, you know you are in trouble if you have the Jets.
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Quote Originally Posted by 165yds:
I hate to say it but think the Browns take the Jets to the woodshed. I’m surprised how good the Browns defense is. What they did against the Saints is very impressive. Darnold has to play and has had moments but he’s throwing at least 2 picks. The books threw a 3 for a reason, it’s because the Browns are better. As always we shall see.
When this guy agrees with me, the yin and yang of covers, you know you are in trouble if you have the Jets.
Not betting these days, Scal, but I like the pick a lot not only because of the streak etc. but the fact that it is on national tv and the only game in town. That is big for this Browns team looking to make some noise. Also, the Jets already got their big win on national tv on Monday night and I think that is another reason to fade them here. For that lowly franchise to do it twice in three weeks would be remarkable indeed, even against a Browns team that has been putrid for years.
Good luck!
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Not betting these days, Scal, but I like the pick a lot not only because of the streak etc. but the fact that it is on national tv and the only game in town. That is big for this Browns team looking to make some noise. Also, the Jets already got their big win on national tv on Monday night and I think that is another reason to fade them here. For that lowly franchise to do it twice in three weeks would be remarkable indeed, even against a Browns team that has been putrid for years.
Not betting these days, Scal, but I like the pick a lot not only because of the streak etc. but the fact that it is on national tv and the only game in town. That is big for this Browns team looking to make some noise. Also, the Jets already got their big win on national tv on Monday night and I think that is another reason to fade them here. For that lowly franchise to do it twice in three weeks would be remarkable indeed, even against a Browns team that has been putrid for years.
Good luck!
BB, how are ya!
My basketball betting friend here can attest to how streak busting can result in blowouts, particularly historic ones.
He was with me in the NBA forum and took the Cavs +6 over the Pistons to snap an NBA record 26 game losing streak, the night after the Pistons lost by 32 after 'honoring' their Bad Boys era team at halftime, basically screaming out they wanted to fall on their sword to the Sixers.
They lost by 25 to snap the 26 game Cavs losing streak.
When streaks get broken, like this Browns streak, it can get ugly. That's why the Browns laying 3 is not a worry at all for me.
Now you may say the NBA streak busting is neither here nor there with regard to this game, but as a psychological capper, and as BB understands, all of these athlete mindsets meld together.
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Quote Originally Posted by begginerboy:
Not betting these days, Scal, but I like the pick a lot not only because of the streak etc. but the fact that it is on national tv and the only game in town. That is big for this Browns team looking to make some noise. Also, the Jets already got their big win on national tv on Monday night and I think that is another reason to fade them here. For that lowly franchise to do it twice in three weeks would be remarkable indeed, even against a Browns team that has been putrid for years.
Good luck!
BB, how are ya!
My basketball betting friend here can attest to how streak busting can result in blowouts, particularly historic ones.
He was with me in the NBA forum and took the Cavs +6 over the Pistons to snap an NBA record 26 game losing streak, the night after the Pistons lost by 32 after 'honoring' their Bad Boys era team at halftime, basically screaming out they wanted to fall on their sword to the Sixers.
They lost by 25 to snap the 26 game Cavs losing streak.
When streaks get broken, like this Browns streak, it can get ugly. That's why the Browns laying 3 is not a worry at all for me.
Now you may say the NBA streak busting is neither here nor there with regard to this game, but as a psychological capper, and as BB understands, all of these athlete mindsets meld together.
i like the browns!! the dawg pound is gonna be fckn riled up big time!! browns will go all out for the w!! but i cant get myself to bet the browns lol!! maybe ill look for a live bet. gl scalabrine looks like a good pick i like reading ur capping!!
j
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i like the browns!! the dawg pound is gonna be fckn riled up big time!! browns will go all out for the w!! but i cant get myself to bet the browns lol!! maybe ill look for a live bet. gl scalabrine looks like a good pick i like reading ur capping!!
After 30 years of sports betting I am thoroughly convinced Vegas odds makers are stupid and do not know how to make lines. This line is so ludicrous we should back up the truck against the winless hapless Browns and make a boat load of dough....
Right?
Or, just maybe they do know what they are doing and we should be a little careful here and go with Scal???
0
After 30 years of sports betting I am thoroughly convinced Vegas odds makers are stupid and do not know how to make lines. This line is so ludicrous we should back up the truck against the winless hapless Browns and make a boat load of dough....
Right?
Or, just maybe they do know what they are doing and we should be a little careful here and go with Scal???
Guys if you want to win, you’re gonna have to swallow some undesirable lines.
The books know full well we don’t want to lay a single point with a team that has lost or tied 34 of 35.
They are going to make it tough on us every single time.
Real value can be found at the lower levels of CFB and CBB where the books don’t have the expertise to rank obscure conferences and/or FBS vs FCS matchups properly.
You very rarely find value in the NFL. This is the books bread and butter and they want every last crumb. So you’ll have to lay the 3. If you don’t want to, tough. Life isn’t fair.
Shmoes,shmucks and shmendricks, please re-read this 10x. good post Scal.
bigFnPOO
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Quote Originally Posted by scalabrine:
Guys if you want to win, you’re gonna have to swallow some undesirable lines.
The books know full well we don’t want to lay a single point with a team that has lost or tied 34 of 35.
They are going to make it tough on us every single time.
Real value can be found at the lower levels of CFB and CBB where the books don’t have the expertise to rank obscure conferences and/or FBS vs FCS matchups properly.
You very rarely find value in the NFL. This is the books bread and butter and they want every last crumb. So you’ll have to lay the 3. If you don’t want to, tough. Life isn’t fair.
Shmoes,shmucks and shmendricks, please re-read this 10x. good post Scal.
I don't get how people say the Jets are better than the Browns they haven't shown me anything to indicate they are the better team. The Browns fought against Pitt and the Saints what have the Jets proved? Only laying a field goal at home is fine with me.
0
I don't get how people say the Jets are better than the Browns they haven't shown me anything to indicate they are the better team. The Browns fought against Pitt and the Saints what have the Jets proved? Only laying a field goal at home is fine with me.
The under has to be the play, No way these teams go over 40.. Browns defense will be pumped up playing at home. The stopped Brees and Big Ben in first two weeks and played great. I just don’t see a rookie QB doing much on them. And that Jets D ain’t no joke. I see this as very low scoring game , around 29 points total.
0
The under has to be the play, No way these teams go over 40.. Browns defense will be pumped up playing at home. The stopped Brees and Big Ben in first two weeks and played great. I just don’t see a rookie QB doing much on them. And that Jets D ain’t no joke. I see this as very low scoring game , around 29 points total.
Crash, I’ve bet on rutgers and St. John’s in the midst of MASSIVE CBB losing streaks laying points.
If this game comes out a pickum that means the Jets are a 6/6.5 pt home favorite?
Does that make sense?
Would you take the Jets laying a TD at home against the Browns clealry ready to win one?
NO.
The line actually MAKES SENSE when you reverse it for the other home team you are SUPPOSED to feel uncomfortable with a favorite and a line, particularly one at home, even the Browns.
0
Crash, I’ve bet on rutgers and St. John’s in the midst of MASSIVE CBB losing streaks laying points.
If this game comes out a pickum that means the Jets are a 6/6.5 pt home favorite?
Does that make sense?
Would you take the Jets laying a TD at home against the Browns clealry ready to win one?
NO.
The line actually MAKES SENSE when you reverse it for the other home team you are SUPPOSED to feel uncomfortable with a favorite and a line, particularly one at home, even the Browns.
This refers to a capper, who having capped for a significant portion of their life, sees a line at first blush and says the words, “Well I can’t possibly lay THAT many points with such an awful team, or any points at all for that matter!”
OR they say,
“Well I can’t, in good faith lay THAT large a spread on a game! That’s just a spread that will be decided in garbage time.”
Don’t catch this virus.
It will cost you a large amount of your bankroll over the long term.
You can lay 3 points with the Browns just like you can’t lay 24 points to Ole Miss (62-7 final) just like you can lay 35 with OSU over RU (52-3) just like you can lay -6 with the Knicks over the Nets on too many occasions to name.
Just open your online book and look at a spread for what it is. If you have this virus you won’t be able to fight it as you hem and haw over your laptop screaming “The NERVE of these bookmakers who’d think I’d give POINTS with such an abhorrent team” pulling your best Carilla De’Ville impression from 101 Dalmatians, maybe even smoking a Virginia Slim in a foot long cigarette holder.
Don’t be this person. This is a very sick person. There is no known cure other than reading threads on Covers, which typically worsens the symptoms before it cures them.
0
There is a virus in the capping world called:
Spread Pretentiousness
This refers to a capper, who having capped for a significant portion of their life, sees a line at first blush and says the words, “Well I can’t possibly lay THAT many points with such an awful team, or any points at all for that matter!”
OR they say,
“Well I can’t, in good faith lay THAT large a spread on a game! That’s just a spread that will be decided in garbage time.”
Don’t catch this virus.
It will cost you a large amount of your bankroll over the long term.
You can lay 3 points with the Browns just like you can’t lay 24 points to Ole Miss (62-7 final) just like you can lay 35 with OSU over RU (52-3) just like you can lay -6 with the Knicks over the Nets on too many occasions to name.
Just open your online book and look at a spread for what it is. If you have this virus you won’t be able to fight it as you hem and haw over your laptop screaming “The NERVE of these bookmakers who’d think I’d give POINTS with such an abhorrent team” pulling your best Carilla De’Ville impression from 101 Dalmatians, maybe even smoking a Virginia Slim in a foot long cigarette holder.
Don’t be this person. This is a very sick person. There is no known cure other than reading threads on Covers, which typically worsens the symptoms before it cures them.
I don't get how people say the Jets are better than the Browns they haven't shown me anything to indicate they are the better team. The Browns fought against Pitt and the Saints what have the Jets proved? Only laying a field goal at home is fine with me.
Counterpoint: seems like Pitts and New Orleans are having their own significant issues, so despite the Browns being 2 made kicks away from being 2-0, they have only proved to still be the same old Browns who are deathly allergic to winning a football game...until they show the world they can win a game, they should not be a fav by 3 here imo.
Victory Belongs to the Most Tenacious
0
Quote Originally Posted by kevmode:
I don't get how people say the Jets are better than the Browns they haven't shown me anything to indicate they are the better team. The Browns fought against Pitt and the Saints what have the Jets proved? Only laying a field goal at home is fine with me.
Counterpoint: seems like Pitts and New Orleans are having their own significant issues, so despite the Browns being 2 made kicks away from being 2-0, they have only proved to still be the same old Browns who are deathly allergic to winning a football game...until they show the world they can win a game, they should not be a fav by 3 here imo.
The Browns RSW total was the same as the Jets (5.5/6 for both depending on the book). Jets RSW total dropped below the Browns RSW when it was announced they’d start Darnold
Hence on a neutral field this like would be a pickum.
It is the correct line.
0
The Browns RSW total was the same as the Jets (5.5/6 for both depending on the book). Jets RSW total dropped below the Browns RSW when it was announced they’d start Darnold
Hence on a neutral field this like would be a pickum.
Counterpoint: seems like Pitts and New Orleans are having their own significant issues, so despite the Browns being 2 made kicks away from being 2-0, they have only proved to still be the same old Browns who are deathly allergic to winning a football game...until they show the world they can win a game, they should not be a fav by 3 here imo.
Our first confirmed case of SPREAD PRETENTIOUSNESS!!!
Cut to Rod Serling’s Eye of the Beholder episode where the doctor (me) is removing ththe face gauze from the patient (Packers)
:::last piece of gauze is unwrapped from Packers face:::
Scal (playing the Doctor): No change!!! No change at all!!!
:::screams of horror and revulsion::::
Packers runs down hallway corridor in an untied hospital gown...
End Scene
Lesson (cigarette in hand, sitting on desk in a suit)
There is no cure for SPREAD PRETENTIOUSNESS!
Do do do do do do do
Next week! Tune into the Living Doll starring Telly Salvalas!
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Quote Originally Posted by packersbackers:
Counterpoint: seems like Pitts and New Orleans are having their own significant issues, so despite the Browns being 2 made kicks away from being 2-0, they have only proved to still be the same old Browns who are deathly allergic to winning a football game...until they show the world they can win a game, they should not be a fav by 3 here imo.
Our first confirmed case of SPREAD PRETENTIOUSNESS!!!
Cut to Rod Serling’s Eye of the Beholder episode where the doctor (me) is removing ththe face gauze from the patient (Packers)
:::last piece of gauze is unwrapped from Packers face:::
Scal (playing the Doctor): No change!!! No change at all!!!
:::screams of horror and revulsion::::
Packers runs down hallway corridor in an untied hospital gown...
End Scene
Lesson (cigarette in hand, sitting on desk in a suit)
There is no cure for SPREAD PRETENTIOUSNESS!
Do do do do do do do
Next week! Tune into the Living Doll starring Telly Salvalas!
Jets better in every phase of the game is pure nonsense... why do you agree with that bull sh*t to satisfy your haters... regardless of what we think we have seen from Pitt and NOLA, both are superior to Jets in every phase of the game lol. first blush, I like the play buttt
1) does Cleveland lay an egg after 2 straight heart breakers or is this fuel . They mostly played hard last year but the lack of focus at critical moments, decided a number of gaemes where they should have won or covered.
2) general larger concern - short of Cleveland getting over a touchdown - feels hard to back them full stop given inconsistency across all phases of the game (unfortunately Tyrod hasnt shown me enough of he can be that guy for Cleveland). Maybe he is growing into that role but man, this leads me to my sneaking next concern
3) Mannn, coaching is a concern. They let 3-4 sure wins slip away over the last 28 or however many games its been, losers... Game management at end of games last year was shocking... The staff looked over their depth
4) And Jets - having confidence in predictability of Darnold's performance is cloudy... He looks poised, potentially as IT, and he also looks like, well a rookie... Cleveland should be the best defense he has face through eh...
Scal - I hear you say I was giddy and then I was not and I think hmmm - are you falling for the post game 1 and post game 2 overreaction, that well 90% of people are which lines makers count on... I doubt it, you are far too seasoned for that.
Now many times have we been burned by Cleveland where they had a win or a cover when the inconceivable occurs. Cleveland is 2-0 ATS and nearly won both games while fading Jets lost serious value. and i have to buy into this quagmire at -120
So through all that mental drivel (apologies) - my heart says cleveland, my gut says pass, and my mind says I will never pay -120 so lets just wait and see
Apologies for typos, no time to reread
0
Jets better in every phase of the game is pure nonsense... why do you agree with that bull sh*t to satisfy your haters... regardless of what we think we have seen from Pitt and NOLA, both are superior to Jets in every phase of the game lol. first blush, I like the play buttt
1) does Cleveland lay an egg after 2 straight heart breakers or is this fuel . They mostly played hard last year but the lack of focus at critical moments, decided a number of gaemes where they should have won or covered.
2) general larger concern - short of Cleveland getting over a touchdown - feels hard to back them full stop given inconsistency across all phases of the game (unfortunately Tyrod hasnt shown me enough of he can be that guy for Cleveland). Maybe he is growing into that role but man, this leads me to my sneaking next concern
3) Mannn, coaching is a concern. They let 3-4 sure wins slip away over the last 28 or however many games its been, losers... Game management at end of games last year was shocking... The staff looked over their depth
4) And Jets - having confidence in predictability of Darnold's performance is cloudy... He looks poised, potentially as IT, and he also looks like, well a rookie... Cleveland should be the best defense he has face through eh...
Scal - I hear you say I was giddy and then I was not and I think hmmm - are you falling for the post game 1 and post game 2 overreaction, that well 90% of people are which lines makers count on... I doubt it, you are far too seasoned for that.
Now many times have we been burned by Cleveland where they had a win or a cover when the inconceivable occurs. Cleveland is 2-0 ATS and nearly won both games while fading Jets lost serious value. and i have to buy into this quagmire at -120
So through all that mental drivel (apologies) - my heart says cleveland, my gut says pass, and my mind says I will never pay -120 so lets just wait and see
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