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NFL Playoff Thread....

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Prospect
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Joined: Aug, 2012
Posts: 55
Posted: #201
Wildcard: 3-1 +3.4 units
Divisional: 2-1-1 +1.2 units
Championship: 2-0 +6 units

Ytd 7-2-1 +10.6 units
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1415
Posted: #202
Quote Originally Posted by Irish_Tim:

Wildcard: 3-1 +3.4 units
Divisional: 2-1-1 +1.2 units
Championship: 2-0 +6 units

Ytd 7-2-1 +10.6 units



mad respect Van
 
Prospect
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Posts: 61
Posted: #203
I followed both your picks Zack. Thanks!
 
MVP
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Posts: 16016
Posted: #204
Hey Van, do you know where I can find data on the % of times a game lands on its spread?

One of my books has this

Den -3 -130
Sea +3 +110

Other is normal at

Den -1.5 -110
Sea +1.5 -110

I quickly put the max on the Sea +3 +110 and had the option of Denver -3 +130 on the other site so maxed that too for guaranteed profit. Wondering if I should have bought SEA to 4 -130 and then played Den -3 -130 for 2 shots at a win on the max bet....

My max play is 500 so pretty much unless the game lands on 3, I win $50 or $150.

If I played the other, Id win 500 on 3 or 500 on 4 if it landed there.

Doing some math, on average per play, I would win $100 per 100 times this game played out (since it is 50 or 150). So it seems like for odds purposes, if landing on Denver winning by 3 and 4 is less than 5/1 I should have played that. But unless I know games landing on or about their spread, I don't know if I made the right move. Without looking I would think it is probably around 1 in 5 that it lands on Denver 3,4...thoughts?
 
Rookie
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Joined: Dec, 2006
Posts: 545
Posted: #205

Van the MAN! Great job! Mad respect!

Looking foward to WC! If you have this type of feel for the real football... CAN"T WAIT!

 
Legend
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Joined: Aug, 2001
Posts: 34488
Posted: #206
Seattle is the Play in two weeks. 
 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60035
Posted: #207
Thanks everyone.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #208
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Hey Van, do you know where I can find data on the % of times a game lands on its spread?

One of my books has this

Den -3 -130
Sea +3 +110

Other is normal at

Den -1.5 -110
Sea +1.5 -110

I quickly put the max on the Sea +3 +110 and had the option of Denver -3 +130 on the other site so maxed that too for guaranteed profit. Wondering if I should have bought SEA to 4 -130 and then played Den -3 -130 for 2 shots at a win on the max bet....

My max play is 500 so pretty much unless the game lands on 3, I win $50 or $150.

If I played the other, Id win 500 on 3 or 500 on 4 if it landed there.

Doing some math, on average per play, I would win $100 per 100 times this game played out (since it is 50 or 150). So it seems like for odds purposes, if landing on Denver winning by 3 and 4 is less than 5/1 I should have played that. But unless I know games landing on or about their spread, I don't know if I made the right move. Without looking I would think it is probably around 1 in 5 that it lands on Denver 3,4...thoughts?

Past 20 years or so it is roughly 16% of NFL games that land on 3.

I will read your post again and do some analysis when I get some time later today.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posts: 60035
Posted: #209
Quote Originally Posted by DogHouse:

Van the MAN! Great job! Mad respect!

Looking foward to WC! If you have this type of feel for the real football... CAN"T WAIT!


I cant wait either.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Joined: Nov, 2001
Posts: 60035
Posted: #210

Here is a little super bowl preview.

Seattle is going to win the super bowl.

Just waiting on line, weather - a few other things - but seattle wins.  Its just a matter of how much I win at this point.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Hall of Fame
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Joined: Sep, 2002
Posts: 25932
Posted: #211

hey man...was on both faves yesterday as well

i like seattle to win the super bowl as well

nice job

 
Rookie
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Posts: 915
Posted: #212
 
MVP
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Posts: 16016
Posted: #213
Van, check out the line at one of my 2 books now....I am so

Sea +3.5 +120
Den -3.5 -140

How can this exist? I am from NY, so it is not as if it is local $. My other site is -2.5 across 10 cent juice...can still get -3.5 there for Denver at +145....so I could have done (if waited, can't blame myself though) Sea +3.5 +120 and Denver -3.5 +145....talk about guaranteed money.

I am constantly waiting for the ML to come out on this site. My guess is it will be around +190 compared to -135 on other site..another serious freebee. Then for half and quarter...those might be off too. Could be a serious payday. Wish my max wasn't just 500.v
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1415
Posted: #214
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Here is a little super bowl preview.

Seattle is going to win the super bowl.

Just waiting on line, weather - a few other things - but seattle wins.  Its just a matter of how much I win at this point.



 
 
Legend
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Posts: 60035
Posted: #215
Alright - I am buying in now.

Dont think it is going to get any better for Seattle bettors.

Seattle +2 (5 units)

I really like this game.  The weather can only help it.  If there is snow and wind - all the better.

GL all.  Will be around to discuss and analyze.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posts: 60035
Posted: #216
Quote Originally Posted by CrusCrnshw:

Van, check out the line at one of my 2 books now....I am so

Sea +3.5 +120
Den -3.5 -140

How can this exist? I am from NY, so it is not as if it is local $. My other site is -2.5 across 10 cent juice...can still get -3.5 there for Denver at +145....so I could have done (if waited, can't blame myself though) Sea +3.5 +120 and Denver -3.5 +145....talk about guaranteed money.

I am constantly waiting for the ML to come out on this site. My guess is it will be around +190 compared to -135 on other site..another serious freebee. Then for half and quarter...those might be off too. Could be a serious payday. Wish my max wasn't just 500.v

Look.  This is easy.  It doesnt require analysis.  You know what to do.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Rookie
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Posts: 793
Posted: #217
Van, do you feel that Manning's no-huddle offense will somewhat negate the excellent Sea DL that is 7-deep and therefore will be unable to substitute?
 
Legend
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Posted: #218
Quote Originally Posted by damonte:

Van, do you feel that Manning's no-huddle offense will somewhat negate the excellent Sea DL that is 7-deep and therefore will be unable to substitute?

No.

Total non-factor.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Legend
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Posted: #219
Bitcoin
 
Captain
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Posts: 7375
Posted: #220
Love reading ALL your threads. Better factor in Denver's no Huddle. Once Peyton's Offense takes charge,  Hawks young QB won't have ANY chance of keeping up.....

How many times did you ride Broncos on your outstanding  Hilton contest performance anyway?  Why would this game be any different Unless there is very bad or extremely cold weather, you BETTER remember who fattened your bankroll the most? Wilson or PEYTON? just sayin...... Good luck, better start studying like the winning QB is doing this week
 
Covers Rehab
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Posts: 33995
Posted: #221
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Here is a little super bowl preview.

Seattle is going to win the super bowl.

Just waiting on line, weather - a few other things - but seattle wins.  Its just a matter of how much I win at this point.



The weather report for this game could be very important..esp. wind speed at kickoff....the wind could slow down Peyton as much as the Legion of Boom...
 
Captain
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Posts: 6407
Posted: #222
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

Here is a little super bowl preview.

Seattle is going to win the super bowl.

Just waiting on line, weather - a few other things - but seattle wins.  Its just a matter of how much I win at this point.




 
Legend
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Posts: 60035
Posted: #223
Alright - I am buying in now.

Dont think it is going to get any better for S[Quote: Originally Posted by vanzack] eattle bettors.

Seattle +2 (5 units)

I really like this game.  The weather can only help it.  If there is snow and wind - all the better.

GL all.  Will be around to discuss and analyze.

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
 
Veteran
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Posts: 1272
Posted: #224

why don't you wait for the line to shoot up to 3?  There's still 10 days left and anything can happen. 

Rookie mistake

 
 
Legend
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Posted: #225
Quote Originally Posted by chargerfan10:

why don't you wait for the line to shoot up to 3?  There's still 10 days left and anything can happen. 

Rookie mistake


Dont think it will go there.  If it does, I will be betting more.

I might be a rookie but I am trying out this betting thing and trying to get better at it.  Maybe one day I will actually understand more - but for now - I like taking the 2 points because I am reasonably confident this is the highest this line is going.

Thanks for the advice!

Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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