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NFL Playoff Thread....

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Posted: #251
Van, do you like any props??
 
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Posted: #252
Quote Originally Posted by PersoNOLE9399:

Sorry for this newb rookie ? but uhm IF and only IF Floyd Mayweather actually did drop 10M on Broncos shouldn't the ML change a good bit? I can understand the point spread not moving.

I'm new to following all this and I hate feeling confused


all of his tickets are fake!!!

lol
 
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Posted: #253
did you thing is should be a low score Van ?
 
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Posted: #254
Russ Wilson over 30.5 rushing yards
 
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Posted: #255
Quote Originally Posted by roastedpeanuts:

Russ Wilson over 30.5 rushing yards

Cash it
 
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Posted: #256
 
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Posted: #257
you waded in too far .....hope you can swim     ..denver brings home the bacon..................imho
 
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Posted: #258
Quote Originally Posted by PersoNOLE9399:

Sorry for this newb rookie ? but uhm IF and only IF Floyd Mayweather actually did drop 10M on Broncos shouldn't the ML change a good bit? I can understand the point spread not moving.

I'm new to following all this and I hate feeling confused


FM did not put 10M on the superbowl.

Come on.  Be serious.  This is urban legend bullshit.

Do you know how much a 10M bet would move this line?

Its so funny when you read the details of this "story".  None of it makes sense.

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Posted: #259
Quote Originally Posted by 1pumpchump:

Van, do you like any props??

Honestly - you have to sort through 500 props to find the 5 that are really good value.  And then you have a small limit and the line moves bigtime.

Just not worth the effort IMO.


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Posted: #260
Quote Originally Posted by duongtommy:

did you thing is should be a low score Van ?

I think there is definitely a correlation between Sea and Under, and Den and over.  

In my simulations, the median total was 44 and the Seahawks winning by 3.

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Posted: #261
Quote Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

you waded in too far .....hope you can swim     ..denver brings home the bacon..................imho

I never wade in too far.  

1 game is a blip.  Doesnt make or break me in any way.  

GL with your Broncos play.

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Posted: #262
BTW - very disappointed with this weather situation.  And now it seems that the Broncos are starting to be bet again - which means we might see 2.5 again and maybe a better ML.

So hard to get these things right.  Its like stock trading - when you dont get the lowest price possible, and sell at the highest - you feel cheated.

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Posted: #263
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I think there is definitely a correlation between Sea and Under, and Den and over.  

In my simulations, the median total was 44 and the Seahawks winning by 3.




 
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Posted: #264
anybody who tells you they got in at the lowest in the market and out at the highest ...is lying to you ....imho
 
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Posted: #265
Quote Originally Posted by EDDIEW:

anybody who tells you they got in at the lowest in the market and out at the highest ...is lying to you ....imho

It happens sometimes.  But if you are lucky enough to have it happen - you really shouldnt take credit for it.

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Posted: #266

yea Van.. here in NJ, about a half hour from Met Life Stadium.

Today... 45 degrees, sunny mild, little to no wind. F'n Manning is a lucky SOB. Looks to be the same through the weekend.

Granted, the stadium is out in the middle of a flatland swamp so winds will be up, but no where near howling.

Still feel good about SEA though. I think the weather will help Wilson just as much as manning. I think he needs to be productive both with his arm and running the ball to make this cover happen.

GL

 
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Posted: #267
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


I think there is definitely a correlation between Sea and Under, and Den and over.  

In my simulations, the median total was 44 and the Seahawks winning by 3.


Lol. You have a Simulation bro? And it has peyton manning and the greatest offense of all time losing the superbowl? Get real. 

Broncos and over. EFF your simulation
 
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Posted: #268
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:


Honestly - you have to sort through 500 props to find the 5 that are really good value.  And then you have a small limit and the line moves bigtime.

Just not worth the effort IMO.
 
If you live in Vegas and can get one or two right away that you like you can go from casino to casino and bet 500 to 1000 on the ones you like, but your right its only a few that are worth it, the Russell Wilson over 30.5 is now over 34.5 so I can buy back but I won't as I like it a lot,  see +125 now at a Vegas book and south pt and Hilton have gone to +120, def the weather is aiding this movement, I still like seattle and im glad that there will be no weather excuses.


 
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Posted: #269
Quote Originally Posted by YoungMoolaBaby:


Lol. You have a Simulation bro? And it has peyton manning and the greatest offense of all time losing the superbowl? Get real. 

Broncos and over. EFF your simulation

I actually do have a simulation.  Written by a real live Russian programmer.

It has been incredibly helpful to me this year and last. 

Its not as complicated as it sounds.  It takes about a dozen statistics that I have determined to be critical - and does some calculations.  It is done in Excel.

Probably not so different than what you do in your brain - except mine is smart and yours is dumb.  Oh, and mine wins and yours loses.

 

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Posted: #270
^ lol
what was i thinging??? YoungMoola obviously studied this game inside out.... ran his super computer brain and viola... .. bong resin and dust everywhere
 
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Posted: #271
 
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Posted: #272

Fully in now.

Spreads all the way from +2 to -6.

Go Hawks.

GL all

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Posted: #273
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:

I actually do have a simulation.  Written by a real live Russian programmer.

It has been incredibly helpful to me this year and last. 

Its not as complicated as it sounds.  It takes about a dozen statistics that I have determined to be critical - and does some calculations.  It is done in Excel.

Probably not so different than what you do in your brain - except mine is smart and yours is dumb.  Oh, and mine wins and yours loses.

 

Russian in Excel... :) I guess it is just like you say... alid out for what you think is important... He just set it up for you and you punch in the numbers... Then it calculates ?

 
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Posted: #274

Looks like the only bad pick is Cinn. on your thread... Think we all knew it boiled down to QB play, would he or wouldn't he... We'll, we got our answer. What do you do with a QB like that now...

That person was so cocky on HBO... Strolling around with his music jammin pretending to be a GREAT QB... Some of his throws were just awful and you wonder why they would let him throw OUT patterns like that...

What a dilemma for Cinn... They have a great team around him. But he has to be replaced.. At best, he wins a playoff game "at best" Still going to throw 15 interceptions a year.. .Sorry for the tangent..

 
 
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Posted: #275
Great job Van!!
This really helped me out.

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