I welcome all responses. Vanzack likes the playoffs, but suggests you don't get caught up in the excitement of them - they are just another game on the schedule.
Coming in 9th this season in the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest made me understand one thing - even if you have 1500 bucks to blow on a contest in Las Vegas - you probably don't know shit about handicapping. People who bet bigger don't necessarily win more - the average in the contest was well below 50% - which seems very difficult to pull off - but it is true.
Anyway - here they are for Wildcard Week. ALL ARE CURRENT BETTABLE LINES:
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To remove first post, remove entire topic.
Hello everyone.
Here are my picks for the 2014 NFL playoffs.
I welcome all responses. Vanzack likes the playoffs, but suggests you don't get caught up in the excitement of them - they are just another game on the schedule.
Coming in 9th this season in the Las Vegas Hilton Supercontest made me understand one thing - even if you have 1500 bucks to blow on a contest in Las Vegas - you probably don't know shit about handicapping. People who bet bigger don't necessarily win more - the average in the contest was well below 50% - which seems very difficult to pull off - but it is true.
Anyway - here they are for Wildcard Week. ALL ARE CURRENT BETTABLE LINES:
Congratulations on the Hilton Contest. Always wanted to try that. Maybe some day.
These lines seems really sharp this weekend as expected. The only lean I would have so far would be San Diego. Every year their is a team like this. Lucky to make it, gets hot, defense gets better. Cinci is scary at home and is probably the right side.
Good luck this weekend.
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Congratulations on the Hilton Contest. Always wanted to try that. Maybe some day.
These lines seems really sharp this weekend as expected. The only lean I would have so far would be San Diego. Every year their is a team like this. Lucky to make it, gets hot, defense gets better. Cinci is scary at home and is probably the right side.
Really like the Chiefs and Saints picks van. I'm still on the fence on Cincy wondering if they can cover the biggest line of the weekend. Everyone writing off the Chargers from what they saw last week but this team simply doesn't get blown out. Also, something scares me in the San Fran game. I think they are the better team no doubt but I would not be suprised to see a 24-23 finish to screw 49er spread backers.
GL this weekend
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Really like the Chiefs and Saints picks van. I'm still on the fence on Cincy wondering if they can cover the biggest line of the weekend. Everyone writing off the Chargers from what they saw last week but this team simply doesn't get blown out. Also, something scares me in the San Fran game. I think they are the better team no doubt but I would not be suprised to see a 24-23 finish to screw 49er spread backers.
I'm curious to know why you're playing KC +2.5 and NO +2.5 instead of playing the moneyline on those games. Seems to me to be a better value. Do you expect you may need the points?
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I'm curious to know why you're playing KC +2.5 and NO +2.5 instead of playing the moneyline on those games. Seems to me to be a better value. Do you expect you may need the points?
.500 is about right...sides are tough..unless of course you have been tailing public in college bball last few days...unfortunately i missed that...point is u disagree with exactly .500 of those plays...go figure...but it wint matter as im taking the tease route and its been working..nice job in contest...any payout?
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.500 is about right...sides are tough..unless of course you have been tailing public in college bball last few days...unfortunately i missed that...point is u disagree with exactly .500 of those plays...go figure...but it wint matter as im taking the tease route and its been working..nice job in contest...any payout?
I like all four of your plays. Not to jinx you lol. But I'm thinking the Colts game is the hardest for me because I've been waiting to see which team will regress and now they face each other. Even on the road, and even after losing to Indy a few weeks ago, the dog might be the play there.
I think the Saints are superior to Philly even outdoors. I'll pay to see the Iggles win a playoff game. I think Chip Kelly will have problems in a playoff setting with his squad. Lower scoring game than expected, I think, maybe 24-20
Bengals at home are absolutely the play.
Niners will run the ball and score on one big play. Will that be enough? I'm thinking it will. Discount Double Check is awesome, but I rather like going against the popular QB as long as I have a vastly superior defense
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I like all four of your plays. Not to jinx you lol. But I'm thinking the Colts game is the hardest for me because I've been waiting to see which team will regress and now they face each other. Even on the road, and even after losing to Indy a few weeks ago, the dog might be the play there.
I think the Saints are superior to Philly even outdoors. I'll pay to see the Iggles win a playoff game. I think Chip Kelly will have problems in a playoff setting with his squad. Lower scoring game than expected, I think, maybe 24-20
Bengals at home are absolutely the play.
Niners will run the ball and score on one big play. Will that be enough? I'm thinking it will. Discount Double Check is awesome, but I rather like going against the popular QB as long as I have a vastly superior defense
Congratulations on the Hilton Contest. Always wanted to try that. Maybe some day.
These lines seems really sharp this weekend as expected. The only lean I would have so far would be San Diego. Every year their is a team like this. Lucky to make it, gets hot, defense gets better. Cinci is scary at home and is probably the right side.
Good luck this weekend.
Thanks on the contest....
Seems like a lot on covers and in this thread are questioning the Cincy pick...
At a very high level - Cincy's home form is ridiculously good. The obvious is 8-0 at home with only one of them being a win under a TD (GB early in the season).
When you dig in to the stats a little bit - one thing that jumps out at me is that SD passing defense adjusted for competition is the 2nd worst in the league. We all hear about Philly, Dallas, and Minny's terrible passing D, but SD (when adjusted) is only worse than Philly. If the weather allows for passing, I see Dalton and Cincy's receivers carving up the SD defense - it should be pass first and run second for the Bengals - and I just cant see SD stopping them.
On the other side of the ball - Im skeptical about SD ability to throw on Cincy - which I think they will have to do to keep it close. Rivers is prone to mistakes when pressured, and Cincy is in the top third of the league in sacks and hurrys.
Lots of other stats also point me to Cincy.... Take the home crowd - momentum - and this seasons results at home - I give 7 no problem...
GL
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Quote Originally Posted by t6rider:
Congratulations on the Hilton Contest. Always wanted to try that. Maybe some day.
These lines seems really sharp this weekend as expected. The only lean I would have so far would be San Diego. Every year their is a team like this. Lucky to make it, gets hot, defense gets better. Cinci is scary at home and is probably the right side.
Good luck this weekend.
Thanks on the contest....
Seems like a lot on covers and in this thread are questioning the Cincy pick...
At a very high level - Cincy's home form is ridiculously good. The obvious is 8-0 at home with only one of them being a win under a TD (GB early in the season).
When you dig in to the stats a little bit - one thing that jumps out at me is that SD passing defense adjusted for competition is the 2nd worst in the league. We all hear about Philly, Dallas, and Minny's terrible passing D, but SD (when adjusted) is only worse than Philly. If the weather allows for passing, I see Dalton and Cincy's receivers carving up the SD defense - it should be pass first and run second for the Bengals - and I just cant see SD stopping them.
On the other side of the ball - Im skeptical about SD ability to throw on Cincy - which I think they will have to do to keep it close. Rivers is prone to mistakes when pressured, and Cincy is in the top third of the league in sacks and hurrys.
Lots of other stats also point me to Cincy.... Take the home crowd - momentum - and this seasons results at home - I give 7 no problem...
I'm curious to know why you're playing KC +2.5 and NO +2.5 instead of playing the moneyline on those games. Seems to me to be a better value. Do you expect you may need the points?
I also have the ML in both. Just post spreads here to keep it what people want to see.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by daysbtwin:
I'm curious to know why you're playing KC +2.5 and NO +2.5 instead of playing the moneyline on those games. Seems to me to be a better value. Do you expect you may need the points?
I also have the ML in both. Just post spreads here to keep it what people want to see.
.500 is about right...sides are tough..unless of course you have been tailing public in college bball last few days...unfortunately i missed that...point is u disagree with exactly .500 of those plays...go figure...but it wint matter as im taking the tease route and its been working..nice job in contest...any payout?
42K
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
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Quote Originally Posted by ROVIN56:
.500 is about right...sides are tough..unless of course you have been tailing public in college bball last few days...unfortunately i missed that...point is u disagree with exactly .500 of those plays...go figure...but it wint matter as im taking the tease route and its been working..nice job in contest...any payout?
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GL this weekend
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