I'm really looking forward to both these games today. I couldn't even make a small lean on Eagles/9ers game.
Everything points to KC though. The really interesting thing about this game is listening to some youtube video's there was a pro talking about how Brady beat all his metrics, he beat mine as well and that is why I came up with bonus pts, specifically to deal with Brady.
Then he says how many pro's don't know what to do with Burrow because he was beating them in regular season so they jump on the bandwagon and now just blindly back Burrow today.
Because I was able to find what Brady did consistently well most every season he was at or near the top of the league, so I decided to look into Burrow and see If I could maybe do the same thing and develop a PR to deal with him. However, I don't see anything he does at a very high level the way Brady was so consistent year after year in situational football.
Burrow is with question very good in a number of areas but not great the way Brady was, there is nothing I can find that Burrow or his teams do that is top of the league in past 2 years that I could use to build any special meterics for him, well maybe the one thing is number of penalties and penalty yards they are very, very good, but not as good as last year and KC is improved in number of penalties at +11 while Bengals +19 this season, (last year Bengals were like +44) but Bengals much better in yards then KC, so there is one area.
Since I don't include penalties in my PR's Bengals do have an edge but doutful it would be enough. I may add them in the future as web sites have researched them to be repeatable.
What I think happens is we find out today that Burrow is not Brady and he comes back to earth pretty darn quick.
If Burrow does win, considering how Mahomes does of course I will have to look more into some metrics to deal with him.
I have faded Brady a number of times in similar spots and have won ATS doing so.
I find this very interesting that Pro's BLINDLY backing Burrow as though he is Brady.
If we look at Bengals incredible ATS run past couple of years we see this year Bengals were never more then a -7 fav, nothing like KC or Bills being big favs. But once they got put at -11.5 bingo they don't cover, then in playoffs again over -7 and they don't cover, so the books are catching up on the lines with Bengals. Bengals won't be catching a decent amount of pts as a dog anymore, only +1 VS 9ers or +2 VS Eagles in SB at this time. So they can't lose by a FG and cover any more like they did last year at +4 and losing by a FG to Rams or like they did in regular season this year.
What goes around comes around and now the Bengals will experience this today.
Hot Forum Topics
