POWER RATINGS I............................................
PR I is more pass heavy using passing effiency stats and counts offense and defense equally .
1. Pats 11.8
2. Falcons 10.89
3. Cowboys 8.17
4. KC 4.36
5. Steelers 4.35
6. Seahawks 2.95
Raiders w/Carr 2.66
7. Giants 2.51
8. Packers 2.43
9. Dolphins 1.9
10. Raiders w/cook (-1.36)
11. Texans w/brock (-4.05)
12. Lions (-4.83)
MY LINES..........................................
find the difference then add 3 points to home team. These will stay the same throughout the playoffs. But we will have a playoff only line for the Super Bowl.
Steelers -5.45 over Dolphins
Texans -.31 over Raiders
Seahawks -10.78 over Lions
Packers -2.92 over Giants
we have a play with a 6 point difference to the closing line.
Raiders were not a very good team even with Carr playing, they actually got more points toward their PR from turnovers then any other stat , they were +16 on the season, not a good indicator going forward and I suspect may have lost their opening game at home even with Carr. had they got the bye.
They also led the league in close 1 score wins with 9 and had a +7 differential which led the league. I can see a huge regression for this team next season.
no plays at this point, we'd need the Dolphins to go up to +11.5 for a play which could happen if public starts banging Steelers this weekend . But likely won't.
Dolphins are tough to judge with Moore, he has not played much since 2011, but in very limited play this season had a better QBPR then Ryan and a far better ave per pass.
To tough to judge we likely pass on the game even with a +11.5 line.
Alot of love for Steelers this postseason with SB talk and such, their strength is passing offense with Brown, but are they that good ?
If we look at passing effiency stats which are the best indicators Steelers rank only 8th in ave/pass att and 11th in QBPR and in yards per point another strong indicator they rank just 15th on offense.
Does not look like a explosive offense does it, they barely crack the top 10 in any key indicator, any they only do that by a slim .05.
The info suggest They may look explosive at times but likely are very inconsistent and make to many mistakes.
And that brings us to this................................................
Last season for the 1st time with following stats with high predictive value we found a rare happening as offense eff stats seem to be better predictors for the most part but not always better by big margins, when defense is better it might be only 2 or 3 % points better.
But last year defense eff stats were far better in regular season , well ahead of off eff stats, in ave per pass and QBPR with Panthers no. 1 in one and Broncos no.1 in other and they were also finished 1 and 2 in both defensive eff stats.
And met in SB.
This year is a complete reversal, off eff stats crush def eff stats, off ave/pass is 10.6% better predictors then def and Off QBPR is 8.6% better then def.
Possible this could be how the league decides to call games, what they chose to make a priority year to year base on how the game is evolving or it may not be anything but pure coincedence.
But the no.1 team in ave/pass , Falcons, Skins 2cd, Pats 3rd
No.1 team in QBPR, Falcons with Pats 2cd.
Will last season's defensive standouts repeat itself this season with offensive standouts ruling the day in postseason ?