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NFL PLAYOFFS...........................2017

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Posted: #26
POWER RATINGS II....................................

my lines..................

Pats -8.4 over Steelers
Falcons -6.34 over Packers
 
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Posted: #27
check post 23,24,25 on previous page............................
 
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Posted: #28
Falcons -4 (-115) over Packers --- 6.9 units to win 6 units
Falcons -3 (-105) 1st half --- 3.15 units to win 3 units

Steelers +6 (-120) over Pats --- 2.4 units to win 2 units
Steelers +3 (+100) 1st half --- 1 unit to win 1 unit



leans................................................

 Falcons/Packers over 60 and over 1st half 31
Falcons TT over 32.5 and over 1st half



Do not sleep on the Falcons with one of the greatest passing offenses in NFL history , they will  be the best value play in the playoffs ............................................

 
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Posted: #29
Claw...appreciate your posts buddy.

May I ask what your regular season record ended at? Thank you 
 
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Posted: #30
Quote Originally Posted by monkeebooger:

Claw...appreciate your posts buddy.

May I ask what your regular season record ended at? Thank you 

Not sure, lost track some time ago and could not keep up.

But it my worst year in many years, the ussual reliable info did not work and the bounce factor had it's worst season ever by a good amount.

But the beauty of this is normally off losing seasons the info bounces back big and puts up some of the best yearly records the following year, we'll see if it happens next season.

Supposedly the books took a big hit this year with the masses of public joe's doing well, so if that is true then I don't feel so bad as those things do happen every blue moon.

One thing I've seen happen over the years is when the public does very well in regular season they get crushed in playoffs but that hasn't happened yet, likely will at some point possibly starting this weekend.
 
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Posted: #31
Public is off a 3-0 week last week with the other game being 50%. And they won the last game of week before to make it a 4-0 run.

Now is the time to fade the public, off periods of success, the largest public play is on Packers at 71% and 80% ML.
 
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Posted: #32
COMMON DENOMINATORS OF PAST CHAMPS........................

In most years we can find one of the 2 games with a team that has them and the other does not. And we find that again this year.

Things like.....total yards differential, SB winning teams , the far majority out-gain opps by at least 38 yards which is very low end and the weaker teams.

OR................ave gain per pass att............the far majority of winners out-play opps by at least .7.



Total Yards diff.......................................

Pats +59.8
Falcons +44.63
Steelers +30
Packers +4.81

Ave Per Pass Att diff.....................................

Falcons +2
Pats +1.5
Steelers +.6
Packers (-.7) with the 30st ranked pass defense



The big mismatch is Falcons over Packers . Falcons have the CD and Packers fall way short.

Very reliable method that has done well over the years regardless of who is a proven winner and who isn't. 

Steelers also fall just short of the CD's.

We could make a case for either Packers or Steelers being a team from the wild card round but niether team fits the common denominators there either but Steelers would be closer to fitting.


SUPER BOWL WINNERS PEAK IN TOTAL YARDS DIFF IN THE 2CD HALF OF THE YEAR...................................

Steelers are over +100 yards per game 2cd half
Pats just over +70

Falcons about even
Packers not peaking

Steelers are a monster 2cd half and more fit the CD then the Packers who just do not look the part anywhere I look.

Pats also peaking big time 2cd half.

Now, very important, just because Steelers are better is meaningless, all we are looking for is who is peaking in TY diff, both the Steelers and Pats are peaking.

Falcons not peaking but not regressing either.

SB winners tend to peak 2cd half, do not read anything more into that.

The one conclusion we can reach is the Packers according to history as a TEAM do not have the look the majority of SB winners have.
 
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Posted: #33
POWER RATINGS 1.........................

6 pt diff to closing line .... 9-3 ATS since 2000.
20-11-1 ATS in all games
24-8 SU winners

if we take-out the 6 pt diff games, all remaing games are only 11-8-1 just a tad better then 50%



went  2-0 .....6 times
1-1 .....9 times
0-1-1  ...1 time

Pats -10.45 over Steelers
Falcons -11.46 over Packers

the beauty of backing both leans is rarely would you lose both but you'll likely win both far more often, I posted this same info in last weeks game and we went 2-2 ATS.

You really can't beat that in the biggest games of the year we can take alot of action with little downside risk long term.



The no. 1 ranked team has made the SB 8 of 14 seasons since 2000, have not updated past couple of years.

The no. 2 ranked team 3 times made the SB.

Either the no.1 or no. 2 ranked teams made to SB in 11 of those 14 seasons which again points to Pats or Falcons winning.
 
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Posted: #34
Once we get to playoffs in any sport and especially deep in the playoffs we hear this quite a bit..............never count out a proven winner.

The masses of joe's love backing proven winners even though according to history it is far more foolsgold then anything else when you break-down those proven winners according to how good the team they play on and/or against is.

Most of those joe's will be more then happy backing proven winners and losing because they'll say..........you can never count out a proven winner.

That powerful grip of proven winners has on people is so powerful out will come every excuse to justify their loss and they'd happily do it again and again.

Brady won the SB his very 1st time into the playoffs...........DID HE NEED EXPERIENCE AS A PROVEN WINNER TO WIN SB ?

No he did not.............so why is it that when he wins a 2cd or 3rd it's because of his experience ? ..........Did he not just prove beyond any doubt he could win without experience ?

Rodgers won the SB with a 0-1 playoff record, is that a proven winner ?

But as a proven winner he lost 3 straight opening playoff games and even lost on a 15-1 team  and remains the only 15-1 or better team to lose opening playoff game.

Did experience  of being a proven winner do that for him ?

Look at other QB's that won on 15-1 or better teams, Randall Cunningham, never did anything, Cam, never did anything, Jim Mcmahn, never did anything, rookie big ben , never did anything

none of those QB's did much in NFL before going 15-1 and most won going away.

RC won by 20, Cam had a 31-0 halftime lead , Mcmahn 21-0, Big Ben won by 3

Want to see why ?...................it's called playing on a good team.

First we look at some common denominators that the far majority of SB winning teams have.....................

total yards diff..................38 yards or better, which is low end and the weaker SB winners

The better stronger teams out-gain opp by 75 yards or more, of the 8 repeat winners in the SB era 7 of the 8 had at least 1 of their repeat years over 75 yards.

ave per pass .7

QBPR diff 15


Now we look at those 7 teams went 15-1 or better...........................

2007 Pats +122.9 total yards diff
85 Bears +106
98 Vikes +75
84 9ers +74.4
2004 Steelers  +65.6
2015 Panthers +44
2011 Packers (-6.4)

Of the 4 teams over 75 yards , all 4 won by double digits

Of the 4 QB's who did nothing 4-0 SU

QB's as proven winners 2-1 SU.

The one and only team that did not come close to having the +38 yards of SB winners is the only team to lose and that with a proven winner.


2010 .........10-6 Packers +49 yards fit the mold of SB winners.

When Rodgers played on a stronger team he won, when he played on a weak, weak, weak team he lost.

I'll break-down M. Ryan's teams and we'll seed what we learn there, coming soon...........

Now this is just a start breaking things down, we can get much more detailed but when we look at history through the eyes of the better team proven winners fall flat on their faces and I strongly suspect we will see that play-out again on sunday.................................
 
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Posted: #35
And you can read my write-up on the Giants when everyone and their brother was backing them in wild card round and to win SB.

These myths have an incredibly strong grip on many, many people.
 
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Posted: #36
Here's the team Ryan brought into the playoffs......................

we broaden the common denominators to include pt margin 6 pts and ave per play of .3


2008 yds +13.3...ave /pass 1.4, ave play .1, QBPR 3.1,  pts 4.1

 very weak team

2010 yds +8.69, .4 av/pass, .1 ave/play, 8.8 QBPR, 7.5 pts

again extremely weak team 

2011 yds 43, .3 ave /pass, .1 ave /play, 8.9 QBPR, 3.3 pts

2012  yds 3.56, .3 ave/pass, (-.1) ave /play, QBPR 22, .7.5 pts

\The only team Ryan played on in playoffs that had as many as 2 common denominators of 5 needed  he won his only playoff game and made the NFC Championship game in 2012 season.

And lost to a team with 5 of 5 CD's. Kap played on a team with 5 of 5 CD and layed a beat-down on Rodgers Packers with AR being a proven winner and Kap never doing anything in NFL previous to that beat-down in the divisional round.

Then Kap beat Ryan's Falcons a team with just 2 of 5 CD's, good, strong TEAMS win not proven QB's
 
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Posted: #37
2016 Falcons......................

yds 44.6, ave/pass 2, ave/play 1.1, QBPR 24.6, pts 8.4

Now you got something, here is a strong SB calibre team, easily the best team Ryan's been on in the playoff's with 5 of 5 CD's and........................ what was the result thus far ?

Easily the biggest best win of Ryan's playoff career when he beat one of the most successful playoff teams with a proven winner QB in recent years,  a team that had fallen off , why couldn't that team draw on all their experience as proven winners to beat a 1-4 QB that was called a choker for being 1-4 with weak teams ?

When a proven winner plays on the better team the proven winner wins

When the proven winner does not play on the better team the proven winner losses

can be found over and over again throughout history in every sport I've looked into.

And your very likely to see this play-out on sunday.

It's not going to be 100% but you will win far more often by backing the better teams in the long run over proven winners.

It's all there over history and easy to see what's coming but in order to see it one needs to let go of the powerful grip proven winners has on oneself and for some that is to tough a task to do.......................
 
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Posted: #38
It looks like your method takes into account full year stats?

That could be your Achilles heal.  Packers have come on strong as of late.  There were reports all over the place that this was the worst start Rodgers had seen in a decade (a few weeks) into the season.
 
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Quote Originally Posted by Nycgags:

It looks like your method takes into account full year stats?

That could be your Achilles heal.  Packers have come on strong as of late.  There were reports all over the place that this was the worst start Rodgers had seen in a decade (a few weeks) into the season.

My Research shows full season stats work better then late season stats and FO reported the same thing years ago with their DVOA over full season being better then weigthed DVOA, but now FO is saying it's about even.

The reason  I suspect it may shifted to be even  reason is coz of all these surprise wild card teams making and winning the SB.

Using these stats I did call for Ravens to have that surprise team look after pulling out a close win over Broncos and going into Foxoboro to play Pats and called them to win SU over 9ers.

Because of those surprise WC teams I researched and found common denominators of those teams using key stats, and Packers were out-played in those areas last week, I don't see Packers being better or hotter then Atlanta late in the season, Atlanta is actually much better then Packers  late in season.

Your only looking at record not play on the field.Packers are 7-0 but Atlanta is 6-1, how is that really all that much hotter ?

I don't care as much about record but how the game was played and won, Atlanta is much better then Packers in that regard.


Packers pulled out a similar type win over Dallas but here's a huge difference, Ravens dominated those key stats VS Broncos  while ;Packers were out-played in them.

Rodgers was out-played by a rookie QB making his 1st ever playoff start in both QBPR and ave per pass, how is that hot ?

Ryan layed a monster 50 point beat-down on Wilson in QBPR  and a 1.8 yd beat-down in ave per pass, that's the very definition of hot.

One guy gets out-played by a rookie while the other lays a beat-down on a very  successful playoff QB and team and you call the guy getting out-played by a rookie hotter ?

For those saying Rodgers is hotter are over-reacting to a few plays that are not as likely sustainable, as what Atlanta has done.

Anyone thinks Rodgers is hotter could be in for a very big surprise on sunday.
 
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Posted: #40
I broke-down Packers last 6 games in PR I which is pass heavy PR. And Falcons last 5 games, all wins for both teams going back to games 13, 14, 15,16 and playoff games.

Falcons +24.25
Packers +14.37

MY LINE....................Falcons -12.88

Actually a bigger line then all regular season stats.

If we look at a game to game basis, game 13 was Packers best game by far and they did play better in that game but Falcons played better in all other games, most not even close, Falcons played better by more then 14 pts in 2 games and a TD in another, playoffs thus far we have..........................

Falcons 18.39
Packers 7.07

Falcons -14.32

Both since game 13 and playoffs only..... Falcons on a much higher level of play then the Packers and playing better then full season stats between the 2 teams.

I do not see the Packers being the hot team here, just don't see it.


 
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Posted: #41
Claw, always love your stuff bro. You always bring it. You never change form either. Much appreciated. I wish I could have explained why Rodgers IS NOT better than Ryan this year and how the falcons are the better TEAM BY FAR like you have here, but that's why we have ya, claw! Well done and thanks for all you contribute here. Any more detailed analysis on the AFC side of the coin? Thanks amigo
 
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Posted: #42
When GB wins this thing easily, you are going to need to tweak your system. 
 
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I will admit, I am more of a baseball guy and the reason is I believe baseball is the best sport for using statistical analysis to compare teams and players.  I like the concept of what FO tries to do but i think the nature of football is that there is just not a big enough sample size for the single season stats to really mean much.  I love the deep dive they try to take but i just do take much stock in where a team ranks on defense over the course of 16 games, 12 of which they may have been protecting huge leads and falling into a prevent approach rather than playing a normal defensive approach.  Winning games is a much better indicator with such a small sample size than how many yards a team gives up etc.  There is just not enough relevant data in the NFL to make me believe we can use this type of data in a game like gb vs atlanta.  This could come down to a phantom PI call or a Offensive line getting away with a hold late in the game. Or a bonehead fielding a punt inside the 5 or just about anything.  I think the eyeball test favors green bay when you consider they have knocked off 5 playoff teams in the last 7 weeks and Atlanta has been lining up against very weak competition including Seattle who limped into that game with nothing going on.

Again, my prediction is GB 41-ATL 31

I think Adams and Allison will both play.  Nelson probably will not.
 
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Posted: #44
Quote Originally Posted by Achilles1629:

Claw, always love your stuff bro. You always bring it. You never change form either. Much appreciated. I wish I could have explained why Rodgers IS NOT better than Ryan this year and how the falcons are the better TEAM BY FAR like you have here, but that's why we have ya, claw! Well done and thanks for all you contribute here. Any more detailed analysis on the AFC side of the coin? Thanks amigo




Pats are in regression mode, playing on a unsustainable level, I would not make any plays on Pats at this point.

I we look at Pitt, their strength is offense but they do not rank that high, they barely crack the top 10 in one meaningful stat, and that only 8th and only b y 5/100 from being 11th,  while being 15th in yds per point, they can look dazziling at times on offense but I suspect they are inconsistent and make to many mistakes.

I think Pitt will keep it close enough to cover and have a chance for SU win but likely fall short.
 
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Posted: #45
Quote Originally Posted by Scoop8282:

I will admit, I am more of a baseball guy and the reason is I believe baseball is the best sport for using statistical analysis to compare teams and players.  I like the concept of what FO tries to do but i think the nature of football is that there is just not a big enough sample size for the single season stats to really mean much.  I love the deep dive they try to take but i just do take much stock in where a team ranks on defense over the course of 16 games, 12 of which they may have been protecting huge leads and falling into a prevent approach rather than playing a normal defensive approach.  Winning games is a much better indicator with such a small sample size than how many yards a team gives up etc.  There is just not enough relevant data in the NFL to make me believe we can use this type of data in a game like gb vs atlanta.  This could come down to a phantom PI call or a Offensive line getting away with a hold late in the game. Or a bonehead fielding a punt inside the 5 or just about anything.  I think the eyeball test favors green bay when you consider they have knocked off 5 playoff teams in the last 7 weeks and Atlanta has been lining up against very weak competition including Seattle who limped into that game with nothing going on.

Again, my prediction is GB 41-ATL 31

I think Adams and Allison will both play.  Nelson probably will not.


Here's the thing about coming up with any theory, in this case defenses protecting leads.

Do some research and you may find your theory is not meaningful, and this by the way is why opinion does not work, you can believe in a theory all you want but untill you do the research you simply do not know if backing that theory leads to winning in the long run.

Many, many experts said that same thing in regards to 2011 Packers defense, that their defense was just protecting leads,  I disputed those experts, 2011 Packers remain the only 15-1 or better team to lose it's opening round playoff game while 4 of remaining 6 won by double digits who had the same defense protecting leads but had far better defenses and total yards differentials.

History will speak loud and clear about that theory, but you need to listen to what it's telling you, then develop a theory off history instead of opinion.


When I first started out doing research years ago, I would develop a theory then do the research, what I found was many times my theories fell flat on it's face, I was thinking opposite of how games actually played-out so I changed my theory and since I 've been much improved capping games, very much improved.

What I post here is years and years of research on how games have play-out over history, not my opinion.

With all that said, nothing will ever win 100% of the time, there simply are to many variables and luck to be anywhere close to 100%.

Packers beat 5 playoff teams ?

Yea, ok, but ask yourself, is that info meaningful ? Do you have any evidence that it's meaningful or is that once again, your opinion that it's meaningful ?

Remember, your opinion is not proven winning meaningful info, research over history is.

FO guts and stomps disproved your opinion.

The most wins at this point in playoffs ............beating teams with losing records by 14 pts 

Falcons 5 such wins Packers 2

In other words, it's how you play the teams in front of you that matter most and in that regard Falcons are on another level from Packers.

In last 7 regular season game win streak  Packers only have 2 wins of 14 points or more, Falcons have 3 in just their last 4 and 4 in last 7

And remember FO proven through research beating up teams with losing records is more important not less.
 
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Posted: #46
FO showed that the kiss if death is beating losing teams by close 1 score games and beating teams with winning records in close 1 score games is not very good either.

Look at Packers, actually is a 6 game win streak coming into playoffs not 7 as I said in other post,  their last 6 games, 50% were close 1 score games, 1 VS losing team, Falcons only had 1 all season, Packers had 2 VS winning teams, Falcons only had 3 all season.

Packers had 3 close 1 score games in their supposed hot winning streak, but Falcons only had 4 all season.

Only 1 of Packers games in their supposed 6 game  hot winning streak was a 14 pt win or better, Falcons tripled that with 3 in just 4 games.

FO research showed this to be very meaningful info at this point in the season.

Nothing there is my opinion, it's all there for anyone to see, Falcons are hotter, playing better, Ryan is the better QB by most any measure I can find that is meaningful ab
nd can be back-up by history.
 
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Posted: #47
I like your approach but for you to say the Boys out played the Packers and Dak out played Rodgers , Well your off your tree dude .Im not sure what game you were watching as the Packers lead the game for 58 min.Thats not out playing a team dude.Thats called being dominated as they were the 1 seed . This is a classic case of you looking at your formula and going by that.Im not discarding your formula but dont sound like a handicapping goof like the teddy covers of the world.they put out a 2 paraghaph write on there play of the week and make it sound like its gospel . What your formula doesnt tell you is the Packers are getting Randell back this week which will help the secondary out. It wont stop the Falcons as nothing will but its an up grade to what they have had.oh and one more thing you were sucking daks cock like hes going in the HOFdont forget he was throwing against a secondary that had 3rd string corner and a undrafted corner to follow that up Burnett went down in the 1st Q and they had a undrafted Safety  for 3 Qs also. Good luck to you this weekend. 

 oh for the record ill stay on GB and the Over. 
 
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Posted: #48
Claw heres another thing I want to challenge you on Strenght of Schedule {SOS} do you put anything in there for SOS because if you would have you would know that the Packers have Played 8 PO teams to 3 for Atlanta. Looking at Atlantas Schedule it was pretty week my friend.Just another thought .
 
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Posted: #49
I was just looking at the four remaining teams SOS.  Now looks like a good time to post it.

GB 16th
Atl 18th
Pit 14th
NE 32nd


 
 
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Posted: #50
Quote Originally Posted by theclaw:

Your only looking at record not play on the field.Packers are 7-0 but Atlanta is 6-1, how is that really all that much hotter ?

I don't care as much about record but how the game was played and won, Atlanta is much better then Packers in that regard.

Nope.  You are wrong, I suspect you are molding stats to fit your assumptions.  Here's Rodgers 3-game running average for his QB Rating over the course of the season with a trendline:

https://i.imgur.com/Jl1qVNt.png

Clearly he got better as the season went on. From a 90 QBR average to over 120 QBR average.  I remember announcers stating this was his worst QBR start of a season in over a decade.  This is a significant data point that your full season analysis is ignoring.
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