STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE.......................................
I took a look at all SB's since 1990 using football-reference SOS which uses their SRS to judge SOS.
SRS for those who are not familar with it is a power rating using margin of victory plus strength of opponent's margin of victory, so in other words if you play weak teams you need to dominate them.
Here's the shocker for those who think SOS matters...........of the 52 teams to make the SB since 1990, 24 ranked 27th or worse in SOS.
Almost half the teams that get to SB played very weak schedules.
teams 30th ranked or worse are 4-6 ATS in SB.
teams with at least a 2 point diff are 5-6 ATS, the weaker team is slightly better with a bigger diff in SOS.
Some of those 2 pt diff games involved weak surprise WC teams , so we throw those out and get................weaker teams are 3-4 ATS when bye teams or strong wild card teams
there were 4 SB which saw both teams ranked 27th or worse.
SOS is just like proven winners, there's nothing to it, just back the better team produces better results long term.
Here's a incredible SB, 2004 Pats VS Eagles. .....................
SOS Pats 1.8, 9th best
Eagles (-2.3) 27th
To show the disparity between NFC and AFC, every team in NFC had a negative SOS, every team in the AFC had a positive SOS.
15 OF 16 teams in the NFC had a -1 or worse SOS
14 of 16 teams in the AFC had a +1 or better SOS
Wow, the AFC was heads and shoulders better then the NFC in SOS and had a 2-time SB proven winner QB and team...................and the Eagles covered the spread.
PR I................
Eagles 9.89
Pats 8.46
Eagles by 1.43.....Eagles +7 have a huge 8.43 over closing line and we have a play with 6 pt diff. ............8-4 ATS in SB with a 6 pt diff.
Playoff only PR I.........................
Eagles 20.42
Pats 16.37
Eagles by 4.04 ...... getting +7.........6 pt diff 9-4 ATS.
Back the better team using key effeincy indicators is your better play.
Here's a interesting team.........the Bills who made 4 straight SB's
1990 SOS ranked 32cd
1991 SOS ranked 32cd
1992 SOS 30TH
1993 SOS 28TH
PR I.........................
1990 Bills 11.53 - Gmen 11.2 = Bills -.33, Gmen +6.5 to +7 we have a 6pt diff on Gmen, and a winner.
Dead even game play-out exactly like that regardless of SOS
1991 Skins 18.1 - Bills 10.31 = Skins -7.79, Skins -7, no play
1992 Boys 10.08 - Bills 5.98 = Boys -4.1, Boys -6.5, no play
1993 Boys 10.28 - Bills 4.58 = Boys -5.6, Boys -10.5, no play
with a 5 pt diff in my lines teams are 15-7 SU
2 pt fav or more are 20-10 SU
When we adjust PRI for better defense we get
90 Gmen -4.77
91 Skins by 13.17
92 Boys by 6.32
93 Boys by 6.04
pretty good favs over Bills each year with 2 games being 6 pt diff to closing line and both winners.
2004 Eagles adjusted for better defense becomes Eagles -1.15, still a 6 pt diff. but a close game is indicated by the small line .
While the Eagles lost SU as a very small fav, all 4 teams playing Bills as 6 pt or more favs won SU.
The Bills while playing weak schedules could not out-play their opponents by much, how they played those opponents was the better indicator.
The Eagles out-played their opps more then the Pats did so playing a far easier schedule , how they played that schedule was more important then the easy schedule itself.
And this is how I determine things like.................
when the team with a easy schedule is the better team they cover
when the team with the easy schedule is not the better team they fail to cover
back the better team..............................
Hot Forum Topics
