*** NFL Sunday *** Fairly Big Card

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Redskins

The Falcons in my eyes are a bit overrated. Yes their offense is clicking and their secondary has been playing better than normal but their run defense has sacrificed tremendously because of it. While there pass defense has slided up to 8th overall, their rush defense has slipped to 29th in the league. No idea how some people can say this is the best team in the NFC with a 29th ranked rush defense. We all saw how the run-happy Panthers would have beat them in the Georgia dome where the Falcons are "unbeatable" if Cam Newton didn't fumble the ball away at the end. Washington, who holds the #2 ranked rushing offense, should be able to score just as easy if not easier than ATL. This would be a larger play for me if Washington didn't have so many injuries but I still like them here.

Green Bay Packers @ Indianapolis Colts

I'm really pissed about the diagnosis of Indy's coach just this week. I was planning on hammering the Colts ATS and ML but have to lay off (a bit) now. I will be fading overrated teams all week this week and GB is one of the most overrated teams in the NFL right now. People still think this is the high powered Packer team of old but they are far from that. New offensive coordinator and no run game has made this team the most one-dimensional team in the NFL. Everyone saw how SEA trifled the Packer offense two weeks ago by dropping everyone back in coverage. I expect the same from the Colts. Mark my words, Green Bay will miss the playoffs this year. I only hope the Colts will keep their focus on this game in the wake of everything that's been going on with their coach.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Thanks to the Steelers losing to the Raiders and the Eagles beating the Giants, we have tremendous line value here. Mike Tomlin has one of the best records as a coach after a bye week and after a loss. The Eagles are clearly overrated and will continue to be all year. This team can easily and I mean VERY easily be 0-4. Steelers are healthy again, off a bye, and off a loss. I'll gladly put my money on the better, more desperate team at only -3.

Cleveland Browns @ New York Giants

The Giants call themselves "road warriors" as they play far better on the road then at home. They literally never cover huge spreads at home. Add that to the fact that they have a couple of division games as well as the 49ers on deck and you get a Giants team that will be sleepwalking through a majority of this game. Superbowl champs never take shitty teams seriously and asking them to cover such a high number here is too much. The Browns, in my opinion, will be covering as dogs for many games this year.

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs

I've faded the Ravens two weeks in a row and i'm not stopping now. The Ravens are another team that is a bit overrated at this point in the season. They sacked Brandon Weeden just 1 time out of 53 pass attempts for christ sakes. The loss of Terrell Suggs is so undermining to their pass rush and there defense has taken a big hit because of it. Meanwhile, the last time these teams played, the Ravens knocked the Chiefs out of the playoffs. Revenge anyone?

Seattle Seahawks @ Carolina Panthers

Huge emotional loss for the Panthers who had a chance to pick up a much needed win against the division leading Falcons before letting it slip away last second. Now with the Falcons at 4-0 and the Panthers far behind, they won't find the same energy that will be needed to win this game. Lynch should have a field day on this pedestrian rush defense.

Buffalo Bills @ San Francisco 49ers

Dare I fade the team that just won 34-0 on the road? It is very difficult in this league to completely dominate on defense two weeks in a row as it takes a lot of energy to shutout a team. If you want proof, the 49ers are 13-27 ATS the week after allowing 9 or less points. Also and more importantly, the 49ers have their biggest game of the year on deck, revenging the NFC championship loss to the Giants. They won't show up to face a crappy Bills team they care nothing about. 49ers circled next week's game literally 6 months ago and have waited for it all off-season.

Redskins +3
Colts +7
Steelers -3 (-125)
Browns +8
Chiefs +7 (-135)
Seahawks +3
Bills +6.5 (1H)

Chiefs +14 / Seahawks +10
Steelers +7 / Redskins +13 / Colts +17

GL L.C.

Love most of your plays............we matched up on the Rams & match up on everything else except for the Browns..................lets have a HUGE week................

this falcons/redskins game is so fishy to me...an undefeated team only a 3pt favorite to the redskins with the 31st ranked (i think) pass D? yea i understand falcons are bad against the run..but you think Rg3 has enough help to keep up with atlantas offense?? i REALLY dont see washington D stopping atlantas offense any...nor creating any turnovers..

can you really trust the bills on the road though? ryan fitzpatrick is very turnover prone....i don't think the niners need to play lights out to make him throw a pick or two

Like all of them.. The only favs I like this week are Pitt and the saints.  I'm all over the redskins as well.  Nice to see us cash on the rams last night... Great write up for that game.  Bol this weekend 

Pitt and KC Large for me   Nice hit last night on Rams I cashed in for 3 units as well.  GL this weekend.

All my plays are more situational plays than matchup plays.  Washington is the more desperate team playing at home and catching points. ATL are 4-0 and well ahead of every1 in their division, you won't see any sense of urgency from them. As for the 49ers, i'm mainly fading them first half as they will be looking ahead to next week's game. I don't care that the Bills suck, are terrible, and have Fitz as the QB

im a cowboys fan too..I'd really hate to see redskins upset the falcons...FAWK

any thoughts on MIA/CINCY?

thanks leagueC

Hey LC what's your look ahead for week 8?

GL

BOL Bud always love to read your stuff and have a lot of time for what you say.

BOL on Sunday and may you be a winner

Gl League even though I disagree about your comments about the NFC West not being very good in the past.  I am on the same side of all your plays except for the Raven game gl.

loving the Steelers write up. Great post man. keep it up!

The falcons are over rated?  Did you say that about the rams when rg3 came to town? 

nice card

Damn League Capper...always love your insight and I'm on every pick until you got to the last one.

But hell, you make some good points and I may re-consider.

Here is to what we both perceive to be an excellent card this week.

Have the Steelers, Chiefs and Bills myself. Best of luck to us! Cheers!

Overall, I like your card. Disagree with your assessment of Green Bay though. Yeah, they are adapting a bit to new OC and things haven't totally clicked yet, but it eventually will and their defense isn't bad for such a ragtag group of kids out there. Indy gonna get absolutely assfucked this game, IMO.

Btw, LeagueCapper, having a few of your threads for a number of weeks, I'm thinking that you're also taking the Jets on Monday night. Are you?

Absolutely papa, love the jets for Monday. Will be makin a few bets on them when the time comes

Seattle has 2 huge games ahead of them. One with the Pats and a Thursday night game against Niners after. With the traveling from Seattle to St Louis, back to Seattle then to Carolina, do you think they might just wing it this week against Carolina on the road. I can see the Panthers focusing on stopping lynch and trying to force Russel Wilson to beat them. 

gl