*** NFL Sunday Ticket *** Week 13

Only choosing 3 sides this week – getting pretty frustrated with the way my NFL season has gone so far.  I’ve profited 21 units the past 2 weeks but still down a good amount due to how awful my capping was early on and digging myself a -40 unit hole. I backtracked the past few months and if I just stuck to my top few plays of the week I’d be up over 27 units on the year. Anyways, here are the 3 sides I choose for this Sunday

Cincinatti Bengals @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Bucs suck, but they are being underrated currently. Yes they are 2-9 but they have been playing a lot better than their record indicates, and it’s not like this team will quit on the season due to their record – they are only 2 games back of the division lead (laugh).

Last 4 Bucs games:

• Outgained bears by 163 yards.
• Outgained redskins by 7 yards.
• Outgained falcons by 51 yards.
• Outgained browns by 35 yards.

The Bengals are in an absolutely terrible spot. They’re playing in their 3^rd straight road game, and are in a massive look-ahead as they have the Steelers, Browns, Broncos, and Steelers after this game. To make matters worse, they just lost their starting OT for the season. Offensive line coach will have to move things around and test different rotations this Sunday. I smell an upset in the making.

New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I faded the Saints 3 straight games at home. I played SF spread and ML game 1, Bengals spread game 2, and Ravens spread, ML, and alternate line game 3. I have a great feel for this team right now and this is the moment to back them. This is the first time in the past month they are in a favorable spot. Steelers won’t reach the endzone enough to keep up, Saints win this one SU.

New York Giants @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Sucker bet of the year right here. Giants just played 3 HUGE games, against the Superbowl champs, in a must-win against the 49ers, and another must-win against division rival Cowboys. They were in each of the games in the 4Q being up or down by just 1 possession. 3 Straight games, they fell short. Now they have to play a game deep in Florida on a Holiday weekend with absolutely no motivation to win. Injuries all over the field, physically worn out off 3 monster games, and playing a game that means absolutely nothing to them. The Giants season is now declared over after consecutive games with players promising a win and coming up short - again and again and again. They have to be dejected here and I don't see anyway they can get up for playing the worst team in the league. 

Jaguars meanwhile, always giving it their all trying to get better and get a win. Eli loves to throw interceptions when under duress well believe it or not, Jacksonville has the #3^rd best pass rush in the NFL with 33 sacks on the year. No idea where NY’s motivation to win this game will come from. This will be the NFL upset of the week and my NFL Game of the Month.

·         Bucs +4 (3x)

·         Saints +5 (4x)

·         Saints +180 (1x)

·         Jaguars +3 (7x) – NFL Play of the Month

·         Jaguars +135 (3x)

·         Jaguars +10 / Saints +12 (2x)

Last 2 years:

NFL Game of the Month/Season: 3-0 +38.55 Units

NFL YTD: -19.54 Units

Sorry League.

This is just poor analysis. And it's not because I'm on the other side. There simply isn't evidence for much of anything in that write-up.

How in the world was the Dallas game a 'must-win' with the Giants record at 3-7? Do you really think the Giants had true playoff aspirations in the NFC with that record?

It's a rivalry game. The Giants ALWAYS play hard against the Cowboys and always want to beat them, especially when they can knock them out of first if they are having a successful season. The same holds true for Dallas when they are bad and the Giants are good. That is why I said, at a minimum, a tease, by taking the line over 10, was free money. The Giants may lose because they are bad, but they won't be blown out. I still took the 4 anyway too.

And do you think the San Fran game was a 'must-win'? The Giants have injuries up and down their roster. If it was a must win, would Coughlin had put a starting running back in Jennings on 'limited duty' (publicly stated) making Eli air the ball out over and over to the tune of 5 interceptions (and still threw 3 fade routes to end the game?). Probably not. Not if it was a must win. There could have been a better game plan than that.

Do you really think the Seattle game was 'HUGE', a place where virtually no team wins in recent history? Were the Giants, at 3-5 having just gotten crushed at home 40-24 by the Colts, when they just dropped to 3-5 in front of the world on a Monday Night, getting filleted like a catfish on a cutting board by Luck and Co., becoming more motivated by saying that the game was "Huge" in the locker room? I read the press clippings. The Giants wanted to win but they weren't throwing out quotes like they were going to break down the door in Seattle and give it all until their dying breath.