@vanzack
BOL Van! I also like the Ravens (big) and Saints. Also LEANING Packers, Jags (holding my nose on that one) and Chargers (pending Herbert's status). The NFL is one big mash unit this year. Makes for some tough 'capping. I'm already eyeballing Cowboys-Steelers next week with the Boys' top two defenders questionable at best.
Cheers! 
Helps.
Eagles will win if they can run the ball. Vea (and others in the middle) still out for TB, who is going to stop the Philly running game? I certainly dont want to see Hurts drop back to pass.
I hate betting one dimensional teams like this. But I am swallowing it because there is a huge advantage here for the rushing game of the Eagles. I hope Hurts throws like 15 times.
I like (and already bet) the Chargers at +8. I cant recommend them at the current number +7.
Totally understand the Jags play. I am really concerned they are a dead team though at this point. It isnt just this season, it is the last 5 games or so of last season also. I want to see them show some life before I bet on their potential.
GL
The pros are on Indy, and the squares are on the Steelers. Pretty obvious why if you think about it.
I really love when teams become one dimensional (pass or run, offense or defense). To me, this is the single biggest edge in NFL handicapping. For instance - the Eagles. If they cant run, they cant win. You might include the Ravens also, and you can certainly include the Colts.
Anthony Richardson is so bad, I mean not bad - but absolutely horrific at making what is becoming an NFL necessity (because defenses are giving it more and more), the 10 yard pass. Maybe the worst in history. So the Colts will be able to score in games they can run - period - and run when the defense knows they have to run. That is a tough proposition, even with a top 5 OLine.
So the Steelers come in with the 5th best (adjusted) rush defense in the NFL, and they will be able to put a lot of focus on the running game because they know what is coming. If the Colts can stay in 3rd and 3 or 4, or avoid 3rd downs altogether - they have a shot. But what happens when it is 3rd and 10? Richardson is going to make some bad throws - and if you bet the Colts you have to hope that these bad throws arent to someone in Black and Gold.
The Steelers are vey pedestrian on offense, we all know that - but they have been surprisingly average through the air. And the Colts defense is a bottom third defense, and they dont get pressure - so I wouldnt be surprised if the Steelers are able to be moderately successful on offense.
Sounds like I am making a case for the Steelers. What is holding me back is the spot - and the consistency of Fields and the offense. Could the Colts win 14-10? Yes. Could they win 31-X? I dont think so. So will the Steelers score 17+ in this game? I think that is the key to deciding whether to put you money down o not.
It is a lean to the Steelers for me - but since I am not betting - I hope the Colts beat them to set up better opportunities down the road to fade Indy, although they have an incredibly easy three game run (Jax, TN, Mia) before playing the Texans.
Packers -2.75 (3 units) -3 +106 / -2.5 -117 Eagles -1.5 (3 units) -1.5 -107 / -2 +100 Cardinals -3.25 (3 units) -3.5 -103 / -3 -127 Ravens -2.5 (2.5 units) -2.5 -109 / -3 +109 Saints +2.5 (2 units) +2.5 -112 / +2 -106 Rams +3 (2 units) +3 -108 / +2.5 +111
No Juice !!!
If you want to say im always taking .5 less or giving .5 more at even or plus juice, I buy it, but at the time of your post and where the line is at !!!
Don't keep a W/L and keep a Unit count without juice is amazing !!!
At the so call amount you are wagering, you can really find that many deadbeats on the exchange to take these sucker lines? Other side of all your wagers are -105 lines to +104, these dumb Fs can basically go on or into any book and catch a better line and juice!
@vanzack
Thanks for the input. I was considering a rather large play on Pit but I may scale that back a bit. Potentially no play at all. I have this one at Pit -6.8 on a neutral field. And I’m not sure that playing in Indy gives the colts any advantage. But it sure feels like a super square play as every rec bettor in the world will be on Pit.
One more quick question-
I like GB also. Are you capping this game with the idea that Jordan Love is starting? The Packers seem to be giving the idea that he’s a game time decision. Realistically it’s not a good idea for him to play IMO. Any setback to his injury could potentially end the packers season. I have to believe the franchise is thinking this way. So that said, you must have two different model lines on the game for Love or Willis starting. What’s the scoop?
Again thanks as always. GL this weekend
Feel free to add juice in to my record if you want to, I already stated that doesn't bother me at all. Last season I was up 60+ units, and if you had 15% juice, I think I was up like 50 units. Whatever floats your boat.
To answer your questions directly....
I am actually going to take some time and address you seriously - and I am only going to do this once - because you seem to have a serious jealousy hard on as to why I don't put juice in my record. It is pretty simple - everyone buys toilet paper at different stores for different prices. I happen to buy my toilet paper at the cheapest store, with coupons stacked. Not everyone does this, so that is why I say keep your own juice and apply it to my record. No issues.
Available line right at this moment have:
Packers -2.75 (3 units) -3 +111 (4C), -2.5 -110 (Lowvig) = +100.5
Eagles -1.5 (3 units) -1.5 -104 (MB)
Cardinals -3.25 (3 units) -3.5 +105 (4C), -3 -120 (4C) = -107.5
Ravens -2.5 (2.5 units) -2.5 -103 (Pinnacle)
Saints +2.5 (2 units) +2.5 -110 (Widely available, Caesars etc) (LINE CHANGE AFTER POST)
Rams +3 (2 units) +3 -102 (4C)
So that averages to around -104.4. Which is the range I target when I post. TAKE THE PACKERS LINE, which has -2.5 -110 widely available at Lowvig. Why aren't you up in arms that I posted it at -2.75? Do you think anyone else at covers in this case will post -2.75??
What exactly do you suggest I do with a line like Cardinals? Everyone else posts -3 if they take the Cards, and +3.5 if they take the Commanders. How can I post that more fairly? Keep in mind - I AM THE ONLY ONE DOING THE .25 and .75 line splits.
Look - I get you have a hard on for me. Is it because I have won 7 years in a row doing what nobody thinks is possible? Posting NFL sides at fair lines? Would it make you happier if I only won 50 units a year instead of 65?
I just find your behavior so strange. I sit here and take time to help whoever asks, post picks for free, and give quality content for anyone to read for free. What is your problem with that? Lets discuss so you can move on with your life.
Yes. And that is why the line is sub 3. Once Love is announced, it will go up. Everything I have read says he is a go. Huge divisional game, if he can even remotely go he will IMO. A bit of a gamble, but I am willing to take it.
If Willis was the confirmed starter, it would be a no play for me at -2.5.
Is there still such a thing as a dollar menu? What is on it, plastic silverware, a straw, or napkins?
Those are the only 2 options?
@vanzack
I just don’t see how you can just grind like that w/o going on a binge every once in a while. Do you take some sort of vitamin or brain food that keeps you within yourself? Maybe you have pets that your divert your attention to when the urge comes on.
@vanzack
Quick question for you....Niners -10 vs Pats....on the surface this feels like a Niners get right game...maybe blowout....and another square play....can't see anyone making a case to take Patriots other than large underdogs have been hitting.....just wondering your thoughts on this one.....thanks for the input....
Have you watched the Vince McMahon documentary on Netflix? I watched all 6 episodes. While I hope I have some very different qualities to him - one thing we share is a laser sharp focused discipline when it comes to business. He would fire a wrestler, get sued, be worst enemies - but if it made business sense to take him back years later he would make the decision to do it. Money and success are his driving motivations.
Mine are too. Gambling is just a tool for me. If I stopped betting, I would never pay attention to sports again. I dont get a rush out of betting on games. Think of the freedom and decision making changes in your life if you were castrated. Maybe that is a good equivalent to my sportsbetting - I am castrated when it comes to enjoying it.
So I have discipline. If it makes sense, I risk money - if it doesnt - I dont.
Green Bay might be my favorite play of the week. I'm taking -3 at -105 since I anticipate it will move up by Sunday morning. Perfect sell high spot where Minnesota comes back down to earth, they've been surprising but playing at an unsustainable level. Similar spot to Miami-Buffalo last year after the dolphins scored 70 the previous week then got smoked.
I have some questions for you at a later time since I'm looking to eventually do this for a living and I know you will be able to help in terms of advice. Good luck this week. I can't pull the trigger on New Orleans but I think Cincinnati breaks out this week against a Carolina pass defense they should have plenty of success against.
I like large underdogs when they have an offense that can come back in garbage time and cover. It gives you just one more way to cover if they cant hang in the game. You know the feeling when you bet a big dog - and once that spread is covering by the fav you know it is over? As opposed to when you feel like you still have a good chance?
That is the Patriots here. I wont bet them because I think if they get down by 11+, they wont have a way back. The people betting them better hope they hang all game.
Just not my profile type of game.
Agree on almost all. I don't make a practice of betting potential, like in the case of the Bengals. Yes - it sure looks like they will be able to throw all over the Panthers - but I am not a fan of "this is the week" when they have many bad weeks leading up to it. Hence - why I didnt have the Panthers last week at Vegas even though my numbers said it was a play.
Always willing to help. My email is out there also, or just shoot me a Dm on twitter or here.
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