Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you. As it is today. Time to get to work. Traction, and therefore near future units will be way down I expect.
But you faded the saints last week so the same process worked then ? This is why handicappers are a rare breed. Normal people just say it's random and don't think further.. And it really kinda is.
Commanders shit the bed vs Tampa. They ain't all that.
1
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you. As it is today. Time to get to work. Traction, and therefore near future units will be way down I expect.
But you faded the saints last week so the same process worked then ? This is why handicappers are a rare breed. Normal people just say it's random and don't think further.. And it really kinda is.
Commanders shit the bed vs Tampa. They ain't all that.
Van, I've been at this a loooooong time. Around 40 years. Doesn't happen often but every now and then I'll have one of "those weeks", like two weeks ago when I went 0-5-1, and fell behind -18.1 units. Can't remember the last time I got skunked....unless I was fishing. The point is, the last two weeks I've bounced back. Went 4-2 last week, and 4-1 so far this weekend (Ravens pending). Pretty much won everything back that I lost two weeks ago (wound up taking the Jags). My handle says "prospect" next to it, but I'm no novice. I know a good 'capper when I see one and you've got the goods, AND, you're a class act as well. I have no doubts that you'll bounce back. Don't let the trolls get ya down.
7
Van, I've been at this a loooooong time. Around 40 years. Doesn't happen often but every now and then I'll have one of "those weeks", like two weeks ago when I went 0-5-1, and fell behind -18.1 units. Can't remember the last time I got skunked....unless I was fishing. The point is, the last two weeks I've bounced back. Went 4-2 last week, and 4-1 so far this weekend (Ravens pending). Pretty much won everything back that I lost two weeks ago (wound up taking the Jags). My handle says "prospect" next to it, but I'm no novice. I know a good 'capper when I see one and you've got the goods, AND, you're a class act as well. I have no doubts that you'll bounce back. Don't let the trolls get ya down.
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you. As it is today. Time to get to work. Traction, and therefore near future units will be way down I expect. But you faded the saints last week so the same process worked then ? This is why handicappers are a rare breed. Normal people just say it's random and don't think further.. And it really kinda is. Commanders shit the bed vs Tampa. They ain't all that.
I dont think it is all random. In fact, I know it isnt because statistically it is impossible that I have beat it for 7 years with over 100 picks a year.
I think it is hard to recognize how little a 55-58% edge feels and looks like. But it is enough. Individual games, and individual plays are random - but hundreds are not.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
2
Quote Originally Posted by bucknut5:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you. As it is today. Time to get to work. Traction, and therefore near future units will be way down I expect. But you faded the saints last week so the same process worked then ? This is why handicappers are a rare breed. Normal people just say it's random and don't think further.. And it really kinda is. Commanders shit the bed vs Tampa. They ain't all that.
I dont think it is all random. In fact, I know it isnt because statistically it is impossible that I have beat it for 7 years with over 100 picks a year.
I think it is hard to recognize how little a 55-58% edge feels and looks like. But it is enough. Individual games, and individual plays are random - but hundreds are not.
Van, I've been at this a loooooong time. Around 40 years. Doesn't happen often but every now and then I'll have one of "those weeks", like two weeks ago when I went 0-5-1, and fell behind -18.1 units. Can't remember the last time I got skunked....unless I was fishing. The point is, the last two weeks I've bounced back. Went 4-2 last week, and 4-1 so far this weekend (Ravens pending). Pretty much won everything back that I lost two weeks ago (wound up taking the Jags). My handle says "prospect" next to it, but I'm no novice. I know a good 'capper when I see one and you've got the goods, AND, you're a class act as well. I have no doubts that you'll bounce back. Don't let the trolls get ya down.
Appreciate it.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:
Van, I've been at this a loooooong time. Around 40 years. Doesn't happen often but every now and then I'll have one of "those weeks", like two weeks ago when I went 0-5-1, and fell behind -18.1 units. Can't remember the last time I got skunked....unless I was fishing. The point is, the last two weeks I've bounced back. Went 4-2 last week, and 4-1 so far this weekend (Ravens pending). Pretty much won everything back that I lost two weeks ago (wound up taking the Jags). My handle says "prospect" next to it, but I'm no novice. I know a good 'capper when I see one and you've got the goods, AND, you're a class act as well. I have no doubts that you'll bounce back. Don't let the trolls get ya down.
Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you.
Exact same issue I’m having. It seems that last year’s data is steering me in the wrong direction more than in the right, while curbing this year’s too much.So the question is how far do you go back? And is it different from team to team or player to player?
Also the amount of rookie and backup qbs is making it difficult to find any consistencies for me. I need to accept that out of the 6-7 games on my slate each week, only 2-3 of them may actually be bettable at this point.
No question you’ll come out on top by the time February comes around. If I remember correctly you struggled early last year too? Look where you ended up. GL going forward. Let’s go Ravens
1
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack:
Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you.
Exact same issue I’m having. It seems that last year’s data is steering me in the wrong direction more than in the right, while curbing this year’s too much.So the question is how far do you go back? And is it different from team to team or player to player?
Also the amount of rookie and backup qbs is making it difficult to find any consistencies for me. I need to accept that out of the 6-7 games on my slate each week, only 2-3 of them may actually be bettable at this point.
No question you’ll come out on top by the time February comes around. If I remember correctly you struggled early last year too? Look where you ended up. GL going forward. Let’s go Ravens
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you. Exact same issue I’m having. It seems that last year’s data is steering me in the wrong direction more than in the right, while curbing this year’s too much.So the question is how far do you go back? And is it different from team to team or player to player? Also the amount of rookie and backup qbs is making it difficult to find any consistencies for me. I need to accept that out of the 6-7 games on my slate each week, only 2-3 of them may actually be bettable at this point. No question you’ll come out on top by the time February comes around. If I remember correctly you struggled early last year too? Look where you ended up. GL going forward. Let’s go Ravens
You said it all.
Support your local animal shelter. I am on twitter.
0
Quote Originally Posted by brn2loslive2win:
Quote Originally Posted by vanzack: Thanks guys. Too much of a bullwhip effect in what I am currently doing. I have to fix it this week. My ratings and numbers need to react quicker. Case in point.... Commanders. Their offense is on a stretch that is epic, but my numbers on them only creep up because of trailing data dragging it down. That is probably the hardest thing to accomplish in analyzing the NFL. To get this right. Too much or too little history will kill you. Exact same issue I’m having. It seems that last year’s data is steering me in the wrong direction more than in the right, while curbing this year’s too much.So the question is how far do you go back? And is it different from team to team or player to player? Also the amount of rookie and backup qbs is making it difficult to find any consistencies for me. I need to accept that out of the 6-7 games on my slate each week, only 2-3 of them may actually be bettable at this point. No question you’ll come out on top by the time February comes around. If I remember correctly you struggled early last year too? Look where you ended up. GL going forward. Let’s go Ravens
Van, I've been at this a loooooong time. Around 40 years. Doesn't happen often but every now and then I'll have one of "those weeks", like two weeks ago when I went 0-5-1, and fell behind -18.1 units. Can't remember the last time I got skunked....unless I was fishing. The point is, the last two weeks I've bounced back. Went 4-2 last week, and 4-1 so far this weekend (Ravens pending). Pretty much won everything back that I lost two weeks ago (wound up taking the Jags). My handle says "prospect" next to it, but I'm no novice. I know a good 'capper when I see one and you've got the goods, AND, you're a class act as well. I have no doubts that you'll bounce back. Don't let the trolls get ya down.
Well said!
1
Quote Originally Posted by Boisestateand8:
Van, I've been at this a loooooong time. Around 40 years. Doesn't happen often but every now and then I'll have one of "those weeks", like two weeks ago when I went 0-5-1, and fell behind -18.1 units. Can't remember the last time I got skunked....unless I was fishing. The point is, the last two weeks I've bounced back. Went 4-2 last week, and 4-1 so far this weekend (Ravens pending). Pretty much won everything back that I lost two weeks ago (wound up taking the Jags). My handle says "prospect" next to it, but I'm no novice. I know a good 'capper when I see one and you've got the goods, AND, you're a class act as well. I have no doubts that you'll bounce back. Don't let the trolls get ya down.
I guess you have to be like the mlb boys with umpires. MLB was always tough for me but umpires matter just like ball park effects.
From someone who doesnt watch football anymore, I will say something has changed and not just a little...a lot. The issue is the flags you mention as thats one aspect.
My theory is the amount of money they pay these quarterbacks, the owners no longer look to these guys as a player for entertainment, they think of them as stock and an investment. And wall street is always hedging to protect their investments. The owners hedge is passing rules protecting their precious princesses. I could go on and on but you know.
Rule changes and investments have ruined a game no doubt. I would add the evolution of gambling in America has changed the landscape. Yeah I know its an oxymoron with me here betting.
Anyway lets close out the night we a win. If not oh well always the next game.
0
@vanzack
I guess you have to be like the mlb boys with umpires. MLB was always tough for me but umpires matter just like ball park effects.
From someone who doesnt watch football anymore, I will say something has changed and not just a little...a lot. The issue is the flags you mention as thats one aspect.
My theory is the amount of money they pay these quarterbacks, the owners no longer look to these guys as a player for entertainment, they think of them as stock and an investment. And wall street is always hedging to protect their investments. The owners hedge is passing rules protecting their precious princesses. I could go on and on but you know.
Rule changes and investments have ruined a game no doubt. I would add the evolution of gambling in America has changed the landscape. Yeah I know its an oxymoron with me here betting.
Anyway lets close out the night we a win. If not oh well always the next game.
This is the exact reason I haven’t posted a play in the NFL yet, the simple size isn’t quite there for me yet, 1-4 is nothing, I was close to 20-30 games below .500 and was up well over 100 units in the NBA just during the playoffs. Somewhere close to that W/L in the MLB betting a lot less games up well over 40 units. I will take it a step further with Vanz comment about people will only post -2.5 or +3.5 and we will never see the 3, it is possible to bet with zero to plus juice, I have shown that in the NBA, but the spread for sure won’t be exactly the same as the standard market spread. I use a pinnacle copy cat site.
Ravens will make this right, keep your head up player! Was very close to make this a play on covers but have decided to wait for week 5 to start posting.
Taipei-Tony
2
This is the exact reason I haven’t posted a play in the NFL yet, the simple size isn’t quite there for me yet, 1-4 is nothing, I was close to 20-30 games below .500 and was up well over 100 units in the NBA just during the playoffs. Somewhere close to that W/L in the MLB betting a lot less games up well over 40 units. I will take it a step further with Vanz comment about people will only post -2.5 or +3.5 and we will never see the 3, it is possible to bet with zero to plus juice, I have shown that in the NBA, but the spread for sure won’t be exactly the same as the standard market spread. I use a pinnacle copy cat site.
Ravens will make this right, keep your head up player! Was very close to make this a play on covers but have decided to wait for week 5 to start posting.
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