Posted:
#26
DJ Williams is out that is a big loss.
NFL Week 1
Posted:
#27
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I haven't looked too much at the Week 1 regular season card yet but one game stuck out to me a couple weeks ago so I bet it and after two preseason games I have seen enough to fire more.
Denver pk
I think this is a strong spot for the Broncos at home on MNF to open the year for a number of reasons. First of all they are coming off of a terrible year and now get a primetime home game for the first time in a couple of seasons. They also come in with a fresh and rejuvenated approach under new head coach John Fox. Additionally they get to play an Oakland team that I don't think is going to be nearly as good as they were last year. This is also an Oakland team that beat the piss put of Denver last season 39-23 in Oakland and pasted them 59-14 right here in Denver. This is a strong revenge spot for the home squad with a new life off of last year's beatings against a division rival.
The above is more the motivational angle which I feel is strong but on paper I think the Broncos are much improved as well. Orton was actually playing well last year and was very under the radar before a bad last two games in a bad environment. I think he's a solid NFL QB who can make some throws and win some games. It is also big that so many of the players backed him and said Orton was their guy when the fans were begging for Tebow to start camp. I like how the Broncos front office didn't screw around and came out early and named him their guy, it shows trust and confidence. The running game should be good for Denver as a young offensive line comes together and Moreno (who I think might breakout this year) teams up with a very capable backup in McGahee.
The Broncos problem has been their defense but I get the feeling this unit is going to be much improved in 2011. For starters they have John Fox now who is a defense first guy. Secondly they have shifted to a 4-3 which puts guys like Ayers and Williams back into better positions. No returning player who missed most of last year in the NFL may mean more to a unit than Elvis Dumervil does returning to this defense. They didn't just miss his 17 sacks last year but they dearly missed his relentless pressure and non-stop motor, he is reportedly in the best shape of his life and should be a big pass rushing force. Denver drafted Von Miller 2nd overall and the camps reports said he has been unblockable and from what I've seen in the preseason he should be very good. The secondary had a lot of injuries last year and with vets Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, and Brian Dawkins to go along with rookie Rahim Moore who Denver is high on I think this is a solid unit especially with a much improved front 7 in front of them.
I'm not big on Oakland this year. Jason Campbell on the road in this price range is an ugly thought. Another ugly thought is this defense without Asomugha back there, an entire side of the field will be opened up without him and I get the feeling this defense is going to be bad. I don't like the coaching change in Oakland either after the Raiders went 6-0 in the division last year and had their best season in a long time they went and fired him and several players were not happy about it.
Denver should be far more motivated, and quite frankly I think they are better on both sides of the ball.
Hoping to a good season.
I haven't looked too much at the Week 1 regular season card yet but one game stuck out to me a couple weeks ago so I bet it and after two preseason games I have seen enough to fire more.
Denver pk
I think this is a strong spot for the Broncos at home on MNF to open the year for a number of reasons. First of all they are coming off of a terrible year and now get a primetime home game for the first time in a couple of seasons. They also come in with a fresh and rejuvenated approach under new head coach John Fox. Additionally they get to play an Oakland team that I don't think is going to be nearly as good as they were last year. This is also an Oakland team that beat the piss put of Denver last season 39-23 in Oakland and pasted them 59-14 right here in Denver. This is a strong revenge spot for the home squad with a new life off of last year's beatings against a division rival.
The above is more the motivational angle which I feel is strong but on paper I think the Broncos are much improved as well. Orton was actually playing well last year and was very under the radar before a bad last two games in a bad environment. I think he's a solid NFL QB who can make some throws and win some games. It is also big that so many of the players backed him and said Orton was their guy when the fans were begging for Tebow to start camp. I like how the Broncos front office didn't screw around and came out early and named him their guy, it shows trust and confidence. The running game should be good for Denver as a young offensive line comes together and Moreno (who I think might breakout this year) teams up with a very capable backup in McGahee.
The Broncos problem has been their defense but I get the feeling this unit is going to be much improved in 2011. For starters they have John Fox now who is a defense first guy. Secondly they have shifted to a 4-3 which puts guys like Ayers and Williams back into better positions. No returning player who missed most of last year in the NFL may mean more to a unit than Elvis Dumervil does returning to this defense. They didn't just miss his 17 sacks last year but they dearly missed his relentless pressure and non-stop motor, he is reportedly in the best shape of his life and should be a big pass rushing force. Denver drafted Von Miller 2nd overall and the camps reports said he has been unblockable and from what I've seen in the preseason he should be very good. The secondary had a lot of injuries last year and with vets Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, and Brian Dawkins to go along with rookie Rahim Moore who Denver is high on I think this is a solid unit especially with a much improved front 7 in front of them.
I'm not big on Oakland this year. Jason Campbell on the road in this price range is an ugly thought. Another ugly thought is this defense without Asomugha back there, an entire side of the field will be opened up without him and I get the feeling this defense is going to be bad. I don't like the coaching change in Oakland either after the Raiders went 6-0 in the division last year and had their best season in a long time they went and fired him and several players were not happy about it.
Denver should be far more motivated, and quite frankly I think they are better on both sides of the ball.
Hoping to a good season.
Great write up, it looks like a good spot for Denver. But I want to get your thoughts on some OAK/DEN trends...
Raiders are 10-2 ATS in the division the past two years.
Denver is 5-21-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.
Denver is 1-4 SU and ATS against Oakland in their last five meetings.
Posted:
#28
Quote Originally Posted by Depersio:
Great write up, it looks like a good spot for Denver. But I want to get your thoughts on some OAK/DEN trends...
Raiders are 10-2 ATS in the division the past two years.
Denver is 5-21-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.
Denver is 1-4 SU and ATS against Oakland in their last five meetings.
Great write up, it looks like a good spot for Denver. But I want to get your thoughts on some OAK/DEN trends...
Raiders are 10-2 ATS in the division the past two years.
Denver is 5-21-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.
Denver is 1-4 SU and ATS against Oakland in their last five meetings.
I don't much much into trends like that. Maybe the the 2nd one holds some relevance but this is a new Denver team with a new energy so I think the situation trumps the trend.
As Pro1 said DJ Williams is a real tough loss especially against a run team like Oakland. Bit of a concern but I still think the Broncos hammer Oakland. The Raiders are very similar to the Bills and Seahawks and Denver has beat the crap out of both of those teams in preseason when the first stringers for both units played. They were up 14-3 on Buffalo and outgained them 248 to 91 in yards. They were up 17-3 on Seattle and eventually the backups gave the cover away but Denver pounded them in total yards 450-183, first downs 23-11, and had 10 minutes more time of possession.
I've watched this team a lot in preseason and I'm not kidding when I say Von Miller may have a Suh-like impact. This kid is all over the field and was in the backfield every play against Seattle.
I have Denver as my survivor pick for Week 1 and won't think twice about it. I'm sure most will pick San Diego or KC but both of those teams could lose outright. Who knows with New England. I would also consider Houston and am praying like mad Peyton plays week 1 so I can lay it with Houston at less than a TD.
Posted:
#29
Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:
And they cleaned out some trouble in the locker room.
I think Skins cover week 1- good secondary with Hall-Wilson-Landry if healthy-Otogwe, Giants will have Ross-Webster as CBs, no Steve Smith, Hightower can run and with brutal DBs Shanahan can run some nice short passes to handle the potent Giants pass rush- plus Skins r tough at home with a new found running and defensive game
Posted:
#30
As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play. As a gambler, it is definitely the right play. Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler. Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season. Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!
I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season. I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely. I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters? PASS.
As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc.
What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes. Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....
- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.
- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.
- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD. Again, they ran and threw almost at will. That's the end of the 1st team playing together. The defense stays in a little longer.
- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT. Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).
- Philly three plays and another Vick pick.
- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick. Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.
Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1. Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up. They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass. Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection.
Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great. Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points. While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there. And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either! Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents. You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with. They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons.
Enough bashing Flacco. I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good. Not in certain spots, against certain defenses.
That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday. Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays. ALWAYS a sick read. Cheers to another successful season.
Posted:
#32
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play. As a gambler, it is definitely the right play. Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler. Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season. Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!
I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season. I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely. I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters? PASS.
As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc.
What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes. Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....
- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.
- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.
- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD. Again, they ran and threw almost at will. That's the end of the 1st team playing together. The defense stays in a little longer.
- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT. Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).
- Philly three plays and another Vick pick.
- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick. Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.
Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1. Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up. They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass. Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection.
Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great. Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points. While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there. And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either! Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents. You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with. They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons.
Enough bashing Flacco. I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good. Not in certain spots, against certain defenses.
That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday. Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays. ALWAYS a sick read. Cheers to another successful season.
That Super Bowl loss really pissed me off. I went larger than normal and got bit in the ass. The Mendenhall fumble was the big turning point. From 21-17 and driving to 28-17 and basically game over......If it was a regular season team and my bet was +140 and had a chance to win the game late then I'd consider that an OK loss but it stinks losing the last football bet of the year. That loss might be beneficial though because I really put in a decent amount of work in the offseason using the time I normal spend on baseball as I didn't bet much of that at all. Picked up a decent amount of stuff, we'll see if it pays off.
Nice grab on the +3 with Pittsburgh. I think they are still better than Baltimore I just don't have a great feel for this one. Baltimore eventually has to win one of these right? Although they are having offensive line issues and playing Pittsburgh isn't the time to sort those out. Am I crazy to think the Steelers might have a really good offense this year? They can run and are now pretty damn deep at receiver.
Ready to get this shit kicked off. I grabbed the Rams +4.5 too for reasons mentioned earlier. Not sold on Philadelphia yet and I think they have holes. I will gladly pay to see the "Dream Team" put it together and win by a TD on the road with a shaky offensive line against an underrated defense. I also think the Rams are going to spread it out this year and throw to a lot of different guys which is good against Philly who IMO have very suspect and unproven LB's and safeties. There is a lot of shit on this card and really only a couple of other games catch my eye but I'll see if there's a little movement on the lines next week.
Great to see you back this year buddy hope you had a good summer. I look forward to talking foots and bullshiting this year though I am busy this fall and may not have as much time as in past years.
Posted:
#34
Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:
I don't much much into trends like that. Maybe the the 2nd one holds some relevance but this is a new Denver team with a new energy so I think the situation trumps the trend.
As Pro1 said DJ Williams is a real tough loss especially against a run team like Oakland. Bit of a concern but I still think the Broncos hammer Oakland. The Raiders are very similar to the Bills and Seahawks and Denver has beat the crap out of both of those teams in preseason when the first stringers for both units played. They were up 14-3 on Buffalo and outgained them 248 to 91 in yards. They were up 17-3 on Seattle and eventually the backups gave the cover away but Denver pounded them in total yards 450-183, first downs 23-11, and had 10 minutes more time of possession.
I've watched this team a lot in preseason and I'm not kidding when I say Von Miller may have a Suh-like impact. This kid is all over the field and was in the backfield every play against Seattle.
I have Denver as my survivor pick for Week 1 and won't think twice about it. I'm sure most will pick San Diego or KC but both of those teams could lose outright. Who knows with New England. I would also consider Houston and am praying like mad Peyton plays week 1 so I can lay it with Houston at less than a TD.
I don't much much into trends like that. Maybe the the 2nd one holds some relevance but this is a new Denver team with a new energy so I think the situation trumps the trend.
As Pro1 said DJ Williams is a real tough loss especially against a run team like Oakland. Bit of a concern but I still think the Broncos hammer Oakland. The Raiders are very similar to the Bills and Seahawks and Denver has beat the crap out of both of those teams in preseason when the first stringers for both units played. They were up 14-3 on Buffalo and outgained them 248 to 91 in yards. They were up 17-3 on Seattle and eventually the backups gave the cover away but Denver pounded them in total yards 450-183, first downs 23-11, and had 10 minutes more time of possession.
I've watched this team a lot in preseason and I'm not kidding when I say Von Miller may have a Suh-like impact. This kid is all over the field and was in the backfield every play against Seattle.
I have Denver as my survivor pick for Week 1 and won't think twice about it. I'm sure most will pick San Diego or KC but both of those teams could lose outright. Who knows with New England. I would also consider Houston and am praying like mad Peyton plays week 1 so I can lay it with Houston at less than a TD.
Thanks, have a good season.
Posted:
#35
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play. As a gambler, it is definitely the right play. Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler. Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season. Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!
I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season. I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely. I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters? PASS.
As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc.
What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes. Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....
- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.
- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.
- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD. Again, they ran and threw almost at will. That's the end of the 1st team playing together. The defense stays in a little longer.
- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT. Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).
- Philly three plays and another Vick pick.
- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick. Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.
Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1. Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up. They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass. Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection.
Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great. Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points. While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there. And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either! Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents. You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with. They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons.
Enough bashing Flacco. I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good. Not in certain spots, against certain defenses.
That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday. Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays. ALWAYS a sick read. Cheers to another successful season.
This post I agree with 110%! Everything said in here I agree.
My heavy plays for week 1 are Steelers and Falcons ML.
Posted:
#37
Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:
In the playoff game last year if my recall is correct the Ravens were up 21-7 at half, had 2 key turnovers and dropped passes in the 2nd that led directly to the loss. The games all seem to be close so i would not say that pitt out muscles them. And they are a decent shot to win opening day, but far from a best play. jmo
As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play. As a gambler, it is definitely the right play. Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler. Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season. Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!
I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season. I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely. I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters? PASS.
As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc.
What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes. Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....
- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.
- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.
- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD. Again, they ran and threw almost at will. That's the end of the 1st team playing together. The defense stays in a little longer.
- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT. Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).
- Philly three plays and another Vick pick.
- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick. Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.
Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1. Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up. They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass. Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection.
Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great. Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points. While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there. And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either! Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents. You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with. They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons.
Enough bashing Flacco. I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good. Not in certain spots, against certain defenses.
That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday. Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays. ALWAYS a sick read. Cheers to another successful season.
Posted:
#38
Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:
In the playoff game last year if my recall is correct the Ravens were up 21-7 at half, had 2 key turnovers and dropped passes in the 2nd that led directly to the loss. The games all seem to be close so i would not say that pitt out muscles them. And they are a decent shot to win opening day, but far from a best play. jmo
In the playoff game last year if my recall is correct the Ravens were up 21-7 at half, had 2 key turnovers and dropped passes in the 2nd that led directly to the loss. The games all seem to be close so i would not say that pitt out muscles them. And they are a decent shot to win opening day, but far from a best play. jmo
Ravens played very well on Turn Over (T/O) ratios against the league except their nemesis, Steelers. Ravens lost the 2011 divisional playoff game to the Steelers, due mostly to the T/O, esp. in 2nd half. i took PIT -3.5, so was glad on that result.
Posted:
#40
Man, I want to get on board with you guys with the Broncos, but I missed the parade. Line seems to be 3 everywhere now. Then again "everywhere" to me is pretty much a couple different locals I roll with as I pulled out harshly out of all my overseas books. Not that any of them worth a shit still took US customers.
Posted:
#41
GL Andarmac this year!
Great thread and write-up. I did my own analysis and came up with Oakland as my pick I locked in already at +3.
I am also not sold on the "dream team" yet and waiting for the line to go up more when the public keeps pounding the line up....
Look forward to your future write-ups brother and BOL this year...
Great thread and write-up. I did my own analysis and came up with Oakland as my pick I locked in already at +3.
I am also not sold on the "dream team" yet and waiting for the line to go up more when the public keeps pounding the line up....
Look forward to your future write-ups brother and BOL this year...
Posted:
#46
Great to see you are continuing the thread Andy. We had a lot fo sucess last season and hopefully this season to come.
The one game that jumps out at me right away is the Eagles -4.5. I read the posts on how McDaniels is going to breath life into the Rams and how Bradford is going to take that next step but when I think of the Rams all I see is the team that lost the division 16-6 to the Seahawks. The Eagles have improved on all sides of the ball but their defense stacks up to be awesome this season. The Rams are not a high scoring team even against the worst of defense and I can see the Eagles giving them fits. On offense I think the Eagles are just to explosive for the Rams defense to contain all day. I think they contain them a bit. Maybe hold them to the mid 20's in point but I don't see the Rams scoring much more than 20 against the Eagles. During their last 10 games the Rams score more than 20 points only twice while the Eagles score over 20 seven times. Think the Eagles come into this one fired up with some SuperBowl swagger and look to make a statement.
Leaning GB though -4 scares me a bit and I am sort of wondering if this is a game I tough if it was on Sunday instead of the opener and only game on. I am also leaning Steelers and Tampa. But I haven't pulled the trigger quite yet.
Jets game intrigues me. Jets/Dallas were the trendy pick to be Superbowl last season and of course Dallas imploded (and took most of my money with them) while the Jets did their usualy up and down season and postseason brillance. I can see the Jets struggling against the Cowboys defense and to be honest their Jets offense has not impressed me at all this preseason. Cowboys have a lot of weapons on offense and if anything is an achillies heel to the Jets defense it is a strong TE. 4 points is too much. I can't bring myself to be against my team (not on opening day at least) but if I wasn't a Jets fan I would say this is a great spot for the Cowboys.
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