NFL Week 1

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:

I haven't looked too much at the Week 1 regular season card yet but one game stuck out to me a couple weeks ago so I bet it and after two preseason games I have seen enough to fire more.


Denver pk

I think this is a strong spot for the Broncos at home on MNF to open the year for a number of reasons. First of all they are coming off of a terrible year and now get a primetime home game for the first time in a couple of seasons. They also come in with a fresh and rejuvenated approach under new head coach John Fox. Additionally they get to play an Oakland team that I don't think is going to be nearly as good as they were last year. This is also an Oakland team that beat the piss put of Denver last season 39-23 in Oakland and pasted them 59-14 right here in Denver. This is a strong revenge spot for the home squad with a new life off of last year's beatings against a division rival.

The above is more the motivational angle which I feel is strong but on paper I think the Broncos are much improved as well. Orton was actually playing well last year and was very under the radar before a bad last two games in a bad environment. I think he's a solid NFL QB who can make some throws and win some games. It is also big that so many of the players backed him and said Orton was their guy when the fans were begging for Tebow to start camp. I like how the Broncos front office didn't screw around and came out early and named him their guy, it shows trust and confidence. The running game should be good for Denver as a young offensive line comes together and Moreno (who I think might breakout this year) teams up with a very capable backup in McGahee.

The Broncos problem has been their defense but I get the feeling this unit is going to be much improved in 2011. For starters they have John Fox now who is a defense first guy. Secondly they have shifted to a 4-3 which puts guys like Ayers and Williams back into better positions. No returning player who missed most of last year in the NFL may mean more to a unit than Elvis Dumervil does returning to this defense. They didn't just miss his 17 sacks last year but they dearly missed his relentless pressure and non-stop motor, he is reportedly in the best shape of his life and should be a big pass rushing force. Denver drafted Von Miller 2nd overall and the camps reports said he has been unblockable and from what I've seen in the preseason he should be very good. The secondary had a lot of injuries last year and with vets Champ Bailey, Andre Goodman, and Brian Dawkins to go along with rookie Rahim Moore who Denver is high on I think this is a solid unit especially with a much improved front 7 in front of them.

I'm not big on Oakland this year. Jason Campbell on the road in this price range is an ugly thought. Another ugly thought is this defense without Asomugha back there, an entire side of the field will be opened up without him and I get the feeling this defense is going to be bad. I don't like the coaching change in Oakland either after the Raiders went 6-0 in the division last year and had their best season in a long time they went and fired him and several players were not happy about it.

Denver should be far more motivated, and quite frankly I think they are better on both sides of the ball.


Hoping to a good season.

Quote Originally Posted by Depersio:



Great write up, it looks like a good spot for Denver. But I want to get your thoughts on some OAK/DEN trends...

Raiders are 10-2 ATS in the division the past two years.
Denver is 5-21-1 ATS as a home favorite since 2006.
Denver is 1-4 SU and ATS against Oakland in their last five meetings.

Quote Originally Posted by mtbaker:

I think Skins cover week 1- good secondary with Hall-Wilson-Landry if healthy-Otogwe, Giants will have Ross-Webster as CBs, no Steve Smith, Hightower can run and with brutal DBs Shanahan can run some nice short passes to handle the potent Giants pass rush- plus Skins r tough at home with a new found running and defensive game

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play.  As a gambler, it is definitely the right play.  Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler.  Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season.  Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!

I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season.  I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely.  I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters?  PASS.

As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc. 

What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes.  Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....

- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.

- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.

- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD.  Again, they ran and threw almost at will.  That's the end of the 1st team playing together.  The defense stays in a little longer.

- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT.  Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).

-  Philly three plays and another Vick pick.

- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick.  Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.

Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1.  Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up.  They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass.  Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection. 

Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great.  Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points.  While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there.  And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either!  Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents.  You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with.  They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons. 

Enough bashing Flacco.  I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good.  Not in certain spots, against certain defenses. 

That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday.  Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays.  ALWAYS a sick read.  Cheers to another successful season.

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

Ha, I love my new avatar!  Me and a midget that I found mud wrestling in a Scottsdale AZ bar. 

Quote Originally Posted by andarmac99:



I don't much much into trends like that. Maybe the the 2nd one holds some relevance but this is a new Denver team with a new energy so I think the situation trumps the trend.

As Pro1 said DJ Williams is a real tough loss especially against a run team like Oakland. Bit of a concern but I still think the Broncos hammer Oakland. The Raiders are very similar to the Bills and Seahawks and Denver has beat the crap out of both of those teams in preseason when the first stringers for both units played. They were up 14-3 on Buffalo and outgained them 248 to 91 in yards. They were up 17-3 on Seattle and eventually the backups gave the cover away but Denver pounded them in total yards 450-183, first downs 23-11, and had 10 minutes more time of possession.

I've watched this team a lot in preseason and I'm not kidding when I say Von Miller may have a Suh-like impact. This kid is all over the field and was in the backfield every play against Seattle.

I have Denver as my survivor pick for Week 1 and won't think twice about it. I'm sure most will pick San Diego or KC but both of those teams could lose outright. Who knows with New England. I would also consider Houston and am praying like mad Peyton plays week 1 so I can lay it with Houston at less than a TD.

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play.  As a gambler, it is definitely the right play.  Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler.  Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season.  Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!

I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season.  I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely.  I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters?  PASS.

As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc. 

What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes.  Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....

- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.

- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.

- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD.  Again, they ran and threw almost at will.  That's the end of the 1st team playing together.  The defense stays in a little longer.

- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT.  Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).

-  Philly three plays and another Vick pick.

- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick.  Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.

Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1.  Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up.  They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass.  Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection. 

Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great.  Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points.  While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there.  And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either!  Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents.  You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with.  They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons. 

Enough bashing Flacco.  I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good.  Not in certain spots, against certain defenses. 

That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday.  Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays.  ALWAYS a sick read.  Cheers to another successful season.

Quote Originally Posted by glyde69:

As a Bears fan, I don't care much for your Atlanta play.  As a gambler, it is definitely the right play.  Bears are undersized on defense, and STILL are gonna have the same old problems blocking for Cutler.  Kickoff rule changes cripple the usual stellar Bears return game, and everything seems to point towards the Falcons coming out and SMASHING the Bears to open the season.  Can't bet against my squad in Week 1 though!

I locked up Pit +3 so far and will be my only bet until close to the season.  I almost locked up the Giants as a hunch play/fade of the Skins, but after watching Washington the last couple of weeks, they are really playing with fire and I might stay away completely.  I mean, road fav, injured team, playing sloppy, laying more than a FG to a division rival to a young hungry squad playing great ball all preseason from their starters?  PASS.

As for Pittsburgh, I can go on all day about how solid they were last year, how I'm bitter on losing in the SB because I thought Pitt deserved to win that game and finish my season off on a monster note, how Pitt is one of the teams that are physical enough to smash a physical team like Baltimore and beat them at their own game, how Pittsburgh is returning 20 starters and all coaches from last year's Super Bowl team, how having the same players and coaches is such a huge advantage early in the season with the lockout destroying training camps, etc etc. 

What I'm most excited about is how Pitt has looked in its two recent preseason games when the starters had reasonable minutes.  Against Philly Week 2(who is everyone's pick to win it all and supposedly a super team).....

- Pitt starts the game on a 7 minute 80 yard drive where they had their way with the Philly defense.

- Philly 6 plays 23 yards, PUNT.

- Pitt puts together a 14 play, 96 yard 11 minute drive for another TD.  Again, they ran and threw almost at will.  That's the end of the 1st team playing together.  The defense stays in a little longer.

- Three plays for Philly and a Vick INT.  Pitt winds up having a FG blocked which might be the only blemish on a really nice game(to be fair Leftwich was at QB at time).

-  Philly three plays and another Vick pick.

- Ignoring a decent Pitt drive with the second team, Philly's last ditch effort to get back in the game before the half ends in another pick by Vick.  Polumalu played him like a fiddle and showed why he gets so much respect.

Now the Pitt-Falcons game was by no means DOMINATION like it was with the Eagles, but I still did see some good things that make me feel good about week 1.  Number 1, they took control from the very opening seconds and never gave it up.  They made BIG plays from special teams, to a pair of 1st drive 17 yard plays, to a Timmons pick and long return, to an Antonio Brown 70 yard TD pass.  Their defense while not great played the perfect Dick LeBeau "bend but don't break" style and with the exception of a long Falcon drive, did that to perfection. 

Looking at Baltimore, they haven't looked so great.  Washington really took it to them last week and the week before it took their 5th team starters to win a game with some late BS points.  While I'm not a Flacco hater, and I usually put the FADE on him when he is on the road, I don't think he is as good as some of the other young QB's out there.  And I don't think the Raven brass thinks so either!  Not with the way they continually keep breaking the bank to get him surrounded with big name free agents.  You don't see other QBs in the league that have success getting all those weapons to work with.  They take the shit they are dealt with and MAKE them weapons. 

Enough bashing Flacco.  I don't even think he is that bad, I just don't think he is that good.  Not in certain spots, against certain defenses. 

That is all I got probably until next Friday or Saturday.  Andy, looking forward to your writeups and plays.  ALWAYS a sick read.  Cheers to another successful season.

Quote Originally Posted by Biscuiteater1:

In the playoff game last year if my recall is correct the Ravens were up 21-7 at half, had 2 key turnovers  and dropped passes in the 2nd that led directly to the loss. The games all seem to be close so i would not say that pitt out muscles them. And they are a decent shot to win opening day, but far from a best play. jmo