NFL WEEK 11 / DON'T be a JIVE TURKEY $$$

What's Up FAMILY??

BEST OF HEALTH, BLESSINGS, AND LUCK to ALL COVERS BROTHERS !! 

Wow its week 11 already , time is flying by at light speed.

Great looking slate to bet on , it takes a ton of discipline to not wager on the opening numbers ..However this COVID plagued season requires patience as active rosters could change with one Swab of a big Q TIP .

Last week I got real lucky going 2-0 on STANDARD ( 1+ UNIT ) wagers, with BILLS over 26.5 TT and OVER 53 BILLS AT CARDS +$600...Lost $170 on small plays betting the whole board ( rarely a good idea ) ..

Fan boy rant = TOO BAD MY BILLS got "BUFFALOED" and couldn't knock down a miracle hail mary ......

My kids were fuming and full of disappointment,  I told them as BILLS, SABRES and KNICKS fans they better get used to it 

Anyways let's get to it !!! 

NFL YTD

19-10-1

+$3,165.73 Or Plus over 15.75 units ...

1 Unit = $200

Take out the abysmal weeks 6 and 8 , and the overall record is 17-3 

Do you see good value in PITT winning it all? +550

Udated final record Predictions

Take these with a grain of salt ...NOT meant to dictate weekly wagering, other than possible Futures with value

Ravens 10-6.   -1

Steelers 14-2.

Browns 10-6.  +1 

Bengals. 4-11-1.

Bills. 11-5. 

Dolphins 10-6 

Patriots 8-8. 

Jets 1-15.

Titans 10-6.  

Colts. 10-6.

Texans 4-12.  

Jaguars 2-14.

Chiefs 13-3

Broncos 6-10.

Chargers. 4-12. 

Raiders. 10-6. 

Packers 12-4 

Vikings 9-7.

Bears. 7-9. 

Lions 7-9.

Cowboys 4-12. 

Eagles 7-8-1. 

Giants 5-11.

DC. 4-12

Saints. 12-4.

Falcons. 5-11.  

Buccaneers 11-5.

Panthers 6-10

Seahawks 11-5.  

CARDINALS 10-6.

49ers.6-10.

Rams 10-6.

AFC. CHEIFS VS STEELERS

NFC. SAINTS. Vs RAMS 

GL there Double -   FWIW - like that Pats out play ! 

That's a tough question Brother ...

Theyll probably need to win home field advantage ( Which they should ) ...

I have a few  concerns with the  current price of +550 .

.My Numbers have them as a 7  point chalk (-335)  in their first playoff game , and a possible 2-3+ point dog (+115) at home to the Chiefs ...Depending on who they play in the Superbowl , the line should be close to a Pickem ( -105)

Those prices parlayed are around + 445 , so it appears like decent value 

However if you factor in Covid I'd be very cautious betting anyone except the Chiefs at +550 or less ...

I'd reccomend waiting a few weeks , if/when they lose a game you'll get a better price than +550 ..On the flip side youll probably still be able to get +550 before the playoffs ( assuming they dont win out ) ..

Sorry if that doesnt help.....

Best of luck Brother 

Sweep your board. $$$$

bol 

Thursday night football ( a good one on paper for once ) 

Tough game to Bet , as anyone could make a strong case for either side...SEAHAWKS totals Over were an insta bet until losing last week .. 

Never thought We'd see Russ throw 7 Interceptions in 2 games , but we did ...

Here is a little tasty Gem from  Matthew Freedman of the Action Network 

Historically, Cardinals head coach Kliff Kingsbury has provided a strong return on investment (ROI) in two distinct situations against the spread (ATS).

As Underdog: 12-4-2 ATS | 41.3% ROI
On Road: 8-2-2 ATS | 47% ROI

And when those two situations have overlapped, Kingsbury’s Cardinals have gone 7-1-2 ATS (55.8% ROI) as road dogs according to our Bet Labs data.

I'm heading to the sportsbook right now ...Completely undecided ...But there is no way I could reccomend a Standard 1 unit+ wager on this game ...Seems like a coin flip ..Post it when I place it ..

Technically, Week 12 starts on Thanksgiving. So maybe it's ok to be a Jive Turkey this week?

BOL DOUBLE BROTHER  

I'm following you. 

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL 

Really don't like either side or the total tonight .= NO Standard wager ..

None of the props look enticing either ..

PASSING on EVERYTHING

DISCIPLINE is my LOCK 

Great post double up...this year only one team from each conference will get a bye...all the others have to play including the second seed.

KC has to play the Raiders, Bucs, Saints (late December), and Dolphins...all on the road. They might drop one of those...Pitts has to play @ Baltimore, Indy, @ Buffalo, and @ Cleveland yet...they both might end up at 14-2 so it could be decided by tie breakers...the Steelers won't go undefeated IMO. 

If the Chiefs and Steelers meet in January in Pittsburgh and it was played in a blizzard followed by a frozen tundra drop in temps, Pitts might stand a chance against the mighty Mahomes...but it is a stretch. I don't see KC's Oline losing their ability to pass protect but that is why they play the game.

Strong winds might bugger that Chiefs' aerial attack but they have a better run game than the Steelers...who knows one or both might get upset along the way.
Personally, I wouldn't want to see Goff and the Rams in another Superbowl...once was enough to last me a lifetime. 

Im taking Seattle -3 tonight.  Revenge game from a couple of weeks ago, lost two in a row, at home for a prime time game, Wilson gets 1 maybe 2 strong RB's back tonight, playing for division currently.  I take my chances with Wilson over Murray.

excellent post as always ( Much Respect )

Yes Brother  only the top seed gets the Bye in each conference ..My numbers give the Steelers a 56.7% chance of being #1 ..Pittsburgh schedule sets up nicely...

However if the Ultra GEEEDY SHADY NFL ADDS 8th seeds ( You know these turds have zero integrity) NO TEAM WILL RECIEVE A BYE ...And then the seeds will be determined by winning % ..Division winners will not be guaranteed the top 4 seeds ..

I'm with you , in NO way do I want to see GOFF on SuperBowl sunday ..

Best of luck Brother

Sweep your board...

My Gut is with you , have to imagine the CARDS were partying ( at a social distance LOL) after the miracle win ...

I came real close to betting the Seahawks Team total over 29.5 at the casino..Quickly ran out and cashed my tickets instead ...

MUCH RESPECT 

SWEEP YOUR BOARD

BEST OF LUCK BROTHER 

Thats hilarious ...

But according to my Pops you NEVER want to be a JIVE TURKEY ...

SWEEP YOUR BOARD 

MUCH RESPECT 

BEST OF LUCK BROTHER 

This is a game meant for the Thursday 6 team parlay, Brother... 

Shits and giggles parlay: Hawks and Over, along with NE, GB, Minny and TB ML.  For 10 bucks pays $330.  If I make it to Sunday night, hedge a bit, and if Monday, I can grab points for the middle.

Degeneracy is a disease...  And I believe I have been infected...  LOL!  Good luck to All!!!

WEEK 11 

WAGER #1  *BET of the Week 

CASINO SPORTSBOOK PARLAY  -117

SAINTS  ML -210 

CHIEFS  ML -385

$585/500 = 2.5  UNITS 

Rarely bet Parlays  ...That being said I LOVE this bet ..

If I trusted the NFL more than OJ Simpson and Casey Anthony the Saints -4  and the CHIEFS -8 would be worth $500 each..

I'm more than happy to erase the spread in both games ...

My current implied win probability numbers have SAINTS -270 and CHIEFS -567 (VALUE in above odds)

Looking forward to Jameis Winston's debut ..Predicting the whole team rallies around him and they possibly play their best game of the season...

Chiefs revenge factor looks like FREE MONEY on the ML ...Almost the entire Raiders starting defense is currently on the Covid list ( Although most are just on the close contact list ) .. This is the wrong week for the defense to be out of practice ...Game should get ugly,  but like mentioned above I don't trust this shady league,  especially on Primetime games . Chiefs win this 85% of the time according to my DEGENERATE numbers..

I personally think the Raider's issue with Covid starts from the top and with their lack of care towards this virus and trying to take any precautions.  This team has now been tagged twice with fines related to Covid and continue to get players sick.  I really hope the league cracks down harder on the Raiders.  It's about safety and health first.  So sad because the Raiders have a chance to be good.  However, if they will continue to act like this and continue to play with who is left, then I will be happy to join you in playing the Chiefs this weekend.  Usually, rivalry games would deserve a lower line but this is Covid year. 

I think if they do go to an 8 team playoff format, then the #5-#8 seeds should play in the first round and the winners advance to play in the 2nd round against the #3 and #4 seeds who are coming off a bye.  Then the winners advance to play in the 3rd round against the top 2 seeds who get awarded a double bye.  This places a true premium on winning the division.  I don't like having odd number of teams in the playoffs