NFL WEEK 11 / DON'T be a JIVE TURKEY $$$

[Quote: Originally Posted by dyamarik]This is a game meant for the Thursday 6 team parlay, Brother...  Shits and giggles parlay: Hawks and Over, along with NE, GB, Minny and TB ML.  For 10 bucks pays $330.  If I make it to Sunday night, hedge a bit, and if Monday, I can grab points for the middle. Degeneracy is a disease...  And I believe I have been infected...  LOL!  Good luck to All!!![/Quot

Great to hear from you my much respected Brother

Definitely a disease ...Been infected since I was 10 picking those parlay cards ...

Win or lose the 6 teamers  are fun for low risk ...

Sweep your board from here on out 

@DoubleUp4Life

 Jameis Winston ain’t starting QB. It’s Hill that’s starting. So can’t look forward to someone who is not debuting lol

Absolutely agree my great Brother..

They need to crack down on DA RAIDERS ....Who would have thought players would be having trouble with social distancing in Las Vegas ..lol ...If they dont take this seriously the whole NFL season could be in jeopardy..

Really like this Raiders team ..That being said my current numbers have them least unlikely of the cureent 6+ win teams to make the playoffs....

Chiefs this week might be my ML play of the season ...Revenge spot , beating the Raiders would he huge for the Chiefs division and home field quest.   Without the Covid i still would have had them -445, with the Raiders issues my numbers balloon to -567 ....Seems like a gift south of-400 right now.  

ZOINKS ....Announced 3 hours ago 

Didnt see that coming ..Another prime example of why waiting until game day to place bets during 2020 COVID is a Fantastic idea.  ...( BUT EXTREMELY DIFFICULT) 

I expect the team rises to the occasion and rallies around Taysom Hill ....

With Winston available ( But currently NOT included in the offensive game plan according to Sean Payton ..) .

Wow.  I gotta believe that Winston sees the field at some point.  This looks like a tactical pregame ploy to confuse the Bucs.  I agree that NO D and ST will step it up a bit, so your wager still has a good shot.  

Damn parlay shit the bed.  I did hit the "Tulsa Miracle" at -5, so ended up + for the evening.  What a fucking crazy game...

BOL All! 

Now you are confusing this old man, I thought the Saints were playing the Falcons? 

Also those China Flu testing machines kick out a lot of false positives...it is the only killer disease in the history of mankind where you have to take a test to see if you got it, and if you do, there is a good chance you will not have any symptoms...not exactly the Black Death or the Spanish flu is it? They got most of you guys so propagandized, I am surprised you can wash and feed yourselves. 

We all have a rendezvous with destiny in a few weeks and should we go down the path of having Red China as our Overlords, we will all pay a terrible price. 

WEEK 11 

WAGER #2;

OVER 48.5 PATRIOTS AT TEXANS 

-110

$440/400. =  2 UNITS

Write up to follow .

My score chart has 55+ ..Guessed this total would be released at 50 and climb to 52 ...

Current Remaining leans for week 11 

Standard Leans ( 1 unit + / $200/)

SAINTS -2.5 or LESS

Spread is currently at 3.5 .Hoping it drops below a FG and it becomes a 1 unit Standard Wager...Big game for the Saints ,battling for home field ...Taysom Hill , Winston , John Fourcade doesnt matter ..lol ..

Broncos Over 20.5 team total or ML +160 

My point spread Ratings and separate implied win probability as a possible upset winner ..Although if the total drops to over 20 I'll will bet that before the ML ..

CHIEFS ML -375 

If it drops to -350 or less I might bet it straight for $350 -700 ...Only BET heavy ML chalks once a season if it all , and this is my Favorite ML I've seen since last year ...Should drop when more Raiders are cleared to play ..

Smaller play  ( 0.5 units / $100 or less ) 

RAMS  -2.5  +200 

It's hard for me to bet on GOFF over Brady , but this might be a good spot on Monday night Football ....Need to check on the assigned game wardens and wait for a covid update before making this a $100 play ...

Regardless of who's at QB , I love the Saints this week ...

Much needed win for their home field advantage..

That Tulsa game was bananas...Nice work ..

Best of luck Brother 

@lancer89074

 Are you in to Fantasy Football ??

If so which 3 RBS would you start ?? 

Aaron Jones Green Bay  has to be 1

Ronald Jones on monday night vs the Rams 

Giovanni Bernard at Washington 

James Robinson at Pittsburgh  

??

Woodbine Mohawk 

My favorite track  

Late 20 cent pick 4  ( starts around 10:10 PM est ...

Race 8.     1,5,6,7,9

Race 9.      6,7

Race 10.     2,3,4,5,8

Race 11.    1,6,,9,10 

Cost $40 

@lancer89074

 Amen.. 

Brother I really want to keep politics and personal world beliefs out of this thread ...

PLEASE ...

Strongly encourage  everyone to visit the political or general discussion forums..

Respect you and your opinions .  

Let's just focus on football and winning money here 

Many thanks in advance ..

ADDING STANDARD WAGER #3

DENVER BRONCOS OVER 20.5 -109

$218/200. = 1 Unit .

Write up tomorrow 

Adding  small wager

 For a little more than 1/4 of a unit ..

BRONCOS ML +160 

$63/100.80

Arizona  Wildcats  Over 20.5 -109

1 unit $218/200

Was NOT planning on betting any NON MAC regular season CFB games ..However this is a must play for a UNIT ..My score chart number has ZONA scoing 21+ in 7 of 7 ...

Saints played falcons after their bye last year and got smoked in new orleans.  I expect saints to lose again and start their collapse.  They have been very lucky winning 2 ot games this year, the amount of close games they have won is unbelievable the last two and a half years.  Regression is imminent.  Falcons are getting healthy with ridley coming back and they are playing well with morris as the head coach.

Still time to get patriots to win afc east at between 15 to20-1  as a hedge for your buff futures.  I told you 3 weeks ago pats weren't done, that the nfl wanted them relevant.   I had them ml vs ravens and believe they can possibly run the table or lose one to go 11-5, 10-6.  When patriots beat texans they will be 5-5, buff 7-3 with one game in foxboro left that is not a big lead.

Bills heartbreaking loss at az is something that can cause a collapse.  If bills lose to steelers, at foxboro and to the dolphins they would be 10-6 if they won the other 3 games.  If patriots beat texans chargers jets bills and dolphins and win one of two vs rams and cards they would be 10-6 and have the division tiebreaker.  Definitely possible.  And dolphins  probably won't get to ten wins as other teams get more film on tua he will have a hard time and they still have kc and at raiders.

still to to get washington futures to win nfc east.   nfl wants the smith comeback and destiny may too.  Smith had nearly lost his leg and went thru a nightmare just to walk again and then get back on the roster.  Then he had to have to haskins regress and allen break his leg  just to get on the field.   He threw for nearly  400 yds  at lions and will only get better as he gets more reps in practice.  The bengals game is a mismatch, burrow should be  sacked a ton. wash wins then thanksgiving at dallas, all the talk will be about smith, pretty sure the refs will  give them any help should they need it, don't think they will.  If browns beat eagles on sun wash will be alone in first place should they win sun and thanksgiving.   At that point the odds shift and there will be  a great hedge oppurtunity to make this virtually a risk free wager.   Smith's comeback is a much better storyline then how pathetic the nfc least is.

Bol, I enjoy your posts alot. 

@dyamarik

 Hill has been with offense for 3 yrs. he knows the system. Winston has only been picked up this. Arm strength is great. However pressure is still a question. Let’s see how Hill performs. I’d imagine we’ll see both Winston and Hill in the game in certain scenarios....

Thank you very much for your time and kindness ...

We just have agree to disagree on the Saints vs Falcons ..In my opinion this is a great spot for New Orleans ..

Maybe the Pattiots run the table , but I highly doubt it ..IF they win more than 4 out of the last 7 I'll be shocked ..I'd want 30-1 to win the east ....

I dont see the BILLS collapsing ..Although my numbers have them losing 2 of the last 6 ..Still get them to 11-5 ...If the Dolphins lose tomorrow maybe the last game of the season at Buffalo is meaningless...

I do like Washington at decent odds, and the Giants  ..agree that Smith ascending to the playoffs would be good for th e NFL soap opera ...

Best of luck Brother ..Sweep your board 

Dub, hope all is well and love reading your posts. My book has a Jets "futility" bet, Team Total over/under 1.5 wins the rest of this year. I am thinking of hammering the under, and see them winning at most 1 game the rest of the way. Wanted to see your thoughts? Thanks as always...

Fantastic to hear from you Brother 

Much RESPECT for you and one of my childhood heros Dale Murphy ..

I would probably pound that hammer down as well ...

Their schedule is extremely difficult ..Here are my current numbers 

At CHARGERS  +10.3

DOLPHINS  +4/-1.6  best chance at a win ??

RAIDERS.  +4.5

AT SEAHAWKS   +14.4

At RAMS +15.2

BROWNS  +4.  2nd best chance at win ? Looks like an brutal spot for The Jets..

AT PATRIOTS +9.5

Myself I'd wager at least 2-4+ units depending on the juice ?

Adding another PAC12 WAGER ( The only other conference than the MAC I plan on betting ) 

Not sure I'd reccomend tailing me on either of these ...

UNDER 57.5 USC AT UTAH  -109

$218/200

Rarely bet UNDERS 

Trojans have not looked as good as advertised in the preseason..Offensive line and Qb are shaky at best IMO ..Utah is finally getting to play a game after 2 cancellations ..UTES lost a ton of key players from last season..Thoughts this number would be in the high 40's ..Very happy to get it here ..

Arizona Wildcats Over 20.5 -109

1 unit $218/200

Was NOT planning on betting any NON MAC regular season CFB games ..However this is a must play for a UNIT ..My score chart number has ZONA scoing 21+ in 7 of 7 ...

Winner paid $69.69

Profit of $29.99

Plan on playing the Early pick 5 and late pick 4 tonight 

So its the Taysom Hill show! I'm curious to see how well the kid does. Been the most unselfish saint doing everything and anything that has been asked of him. He was really good in college and had two devastating injuries. He's bided his time and earned his shot. I'm going to ride with it and trust that Sean Peyton knows what he's doing. With Josh Hill out, take a look at the Adam Troutman for the 1st TD odds and of course Hill to score the 1st one as well pays off handsomely. Saints vs Falcons are a huge rivalry. Im going Saints and Under. Sprinkle a little on Troutman or Taysom to score 1st. Michael Thomas props look interesting too. Lets see how the college turns out. Good Luck Sir!

Fantastic to hear from you Brother 

Thanks for heads up 

I'll take a look at Troutman ..I'm desperate for a TE in fantasy so maybe I'll add him tonight..I'll take a look at the TD props as well  ..Playing my opponent for $150 this week...

I've been real disappointed in Brees for most of the season ..Taysom Hill might be a upgrade tomorrow  ...

Michael Thomas was my pick 7th overall..Needless to say he has been a mega bust to this point...But imm with you , like him tomorrow...

College football outside of the MAC is a total crapshoot for me ...Praying nobody tails the above selections , win or lose.

Sweep your board 

Best of luck Brother